2018 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 16, 2018 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Washington CommandersWinner

Jacksonville Jaguars

JAX -7.5 upsetU 36 ✓Jaguars closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Washington Commanders 16–13 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 0:23, WAS +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:23WAS — JAX WAS ball · 4th & 6JAX 72%

(:23) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to JAX 26, Center-55-A.East. 12-D.Westbrook for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:23WAS +17% win prob(:23) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to JAX 26, Center-55-A.East. 12-D.Westbrook for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 2:41WAS +12% win prob(2:41) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass deep right intended for 12-D.Westbrook INTERCEPTED by 31-F.Moreau [91-R.Kerrigan] at WAS 29. 31-F.Moreau to WAS 45 for 16 yards (10-D.Moncrief).
Q4 · 0:04JAX +12% win prob(:04) 3-D.Hopkins 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-55-A.East, Holder-5-T.Way.
Q4 · 5:52JAX +10% win prob(5:52) 8-J.Johnson pass short right to 87-J.Sprinkle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Commanders	Jaguars
Offensive plays	60	49
Total yards	247 (edge)	192
Yards per play	4.1 (edge)	3.9
Expected points added / play	-0.02 (edge)	-0.30
Success rate	38% (edge)	31%
Dropback rate	55%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.17 (edge)	-0.47
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.25	-0.06 (edge)
Third downs	7/15 (edge)	5/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14 (edge)	11
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	6
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.30.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Josh JohnsonQB

16/25, 151 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

2.7 expected points added · +6.2% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Cody KesslerQB

9/17, 57 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-21.3 expected points added · -10.1% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Cody KesslerQB

6 att, 68 yds, 0 TD

7.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Adrian PetersonRB

19 att, 51 yds, 0 TD

-3.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Jamison CrowderWR

4/4 for 46 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Dede WestbrookWR

3/5 for 21 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · -2.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	JAX	JAX 34	6	9	2:07	Fumble
2	WAS	JAX 34	4	-6	2:10	Punt
3	JAX	JAX 5	7	9	3:51	Punt
4	WAS	WAS 44	9	38	5:02	Turnover on downs
5	JAX	JAX 25	5	-1	2:00	Punt
6	WAS	WAS 36	4	1	2:08	Punt
7	JAX	JAX 33	5	16	1:40	Punt
8	WAS	WAS 9	4	14	2:20	Punt
9	JAX	WAS 46	10	36	5:20	Turnover on downs
10	WAS	WAS 25	6	15	1:36	Punt
11	JAX	JAX 2	4	8	1:03	Punt
12	WAS	WAS 18	4	12	0:39	Defensive touchdown
13	WAS	—	1	0	0:04	End of half
14	WAS	WAS 25	17	40	7:28	Turnover on downs
15	JAX	JAX 25	7	5	2:09	Punt
16	WAS	WAS 15	6	27	3:39	Punt
17	JAX	JAX 12	9	70	5:28	Turnover on downs
18	WAS	WAS 32	12	68	5:29	Touchdown
19	JAX	JAX 25	7	40	3:16	Interception
20	WAS	WAS 45	8	38	2:31	Turnover on downs

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 70 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Johnson	16/25	151	1	0	3	2.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Adrian Peterson	19	51	2.7	-3.6
Josh Johnson	9	49	5.4	2.0
Chris Thompson	5	9	1.8	-2.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jamison Crowder	4	4	46	0	17%	5.6
Adrian Peterson	2	3	20	0	13%	0.9
Jeremy Sprinkle	3	3	19	1	13%	2.3
Byron Marshall	1	1	17	0	4%	1.6
Michael Floyd	2	3	16	0	13%	0.7
Vernon Davis	2	3	16	0	13%	0.6
Maurice Harris	1	2	13	0	9%	-0.5
Chris Thompson	1	2	4	0	9%	-1.3
Josh Doctson	0	2	0	0	9%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Ryan Kerrigan	5	1	2.0	0
Mason Foster	3	3	0.0	0
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix	5	0	0.0	1
Jonathan Allen	4	1	2.0	0
Shaun Dion Hamilton	2	2	0.5	0
Josh Norman	3	1	0.0	0
Stacy McGee	2	1	0.0	0
Preston Smith	1	2	0.5	0
Daron Payne	2	1	0.0	0
Zach Brown	2	1	1.0	0

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cody Kessler	9/17	57	0	1	6	-21.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Cody Kessler	6	68	11.3	7.6
Leonard Fournette	11	46	4.2	-2.5
Dave Williams	5	32	6.4	1.1
Dede Westbrook	1	20	20.0	1.3
T.J. Yeldon	3	6	2.0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Dede Westbrook	3	5	21	33%	-2.5
Leonard Fournette	3	4	18	27%	-1.1
James O'Shaughnessy	1	1	7	7%	-0.3
Blake Bell	1	1	6	7%	0.2
T.J. Yeldon	1	2	5	13%	-0.4
Donte Moncrief	0	2	0	13%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
D.J. Hayden	7	0	0.0	0
Telvin Smith	7	0	0.0	0
Calais Campbell	6	1	1.0	0
Myles Jack	5	1	0.0	0
Jarrod Wilson	4	1	0.0	1
Abry Jones	4	1	1.0	0
Jalen Ramsey	4	0	0.0	1
Nick DeLuca	3	0	1.0	0
Taven Bryan	3	0	0.0	0
Tashaun Gipson	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: JAX -7.5
Closing total: 36
WAS moneyline: +296
JAX moneyline: -338

Jaguars closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 36; the game landed 29 — under by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 64°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: WAS 7 days · JAX 10 days
Coaches: Jay Gruden vs Doug Marrone