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2018 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 16, 2018 · TIAA Bank Stadium
Final
CommandersWashington16
BY 3final margin
JaguarsJacksonville13
Washington Commanders 16 at Jacksonville Jaguars 13. Final.
Jaguars -7.5 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 15
Washington Commanders 16, Jaguars 13 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q2 0:23, 4th and 6 — 16.9 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:23 · 4th and 6
Unnamed on the sheet
Jaguars
(:23) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to JAX 26, Center-55-A.East. 12-D.Westbrook for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
U 36 ✓
Jaguars closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Washington Commanders 16–13 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 0:23, Jaguars +16.9% win probability on one snap.
16.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Fabian MoreauCommandersQ4 2:41(2:41) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass deep right intended for 12-D.Westbrook INTERCEPTED by 31-F.Moreau [91-R.Kerrigan] at WAS 29. 31-F.Moreau to WAS 45 for 16 yards (10-D.Moncrief).
12.5pts
Dustin HopkinsCommandersQ4 0:04(:04) 3-D.Hopkins 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-55-A.East, Holder-5-T.Way.
12.1pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Commanders won this one — +0.17 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at -0.47 expected points per dropback.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Commanders won this one — no giveaways, against Jaguars at 2 giveaways.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Commanders at 4 chunk plays.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Commanders won this one — -0.02 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.30 expected points per snap.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Commanders150 of 159 plays carry both curves
(:23) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to JAX 26, Center-55-A.East. 12-D.Westbrook for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +16.9 for JaguarsExpected points +6.87 for JaguarsThe model had Commanders 8 points higher than the market did.play 78
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:23WAS +17% win prob(:23) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to JAX 26, Center-55-A.East. 12-D.Westbrook for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:41WAS +12% win prob(2:41) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass deep right intended for 12-D.Westbrook INTERCEPTED by 31-F.Moreau [91-R.Kerrigan] at WAS 29. 31-F.Moreau to WAS 45 for 16 yards (10-D.Moncrief).
4th · 0:04JAX +12% win prob(:04) 3-D.Hopkins 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-55-A.East, Holder-5-T.Way.
4th · 5:52JAX +10% win prob(5:52) 8-J.Johnson pass short right to 87-J.Sprinkle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:13JAX +10% win prob(8:13) (Shotgun) 8-J.Johnson pass deep middle to 80-J.Crowder to JAX 27 for 33 yards (20-J.Ramsey) [93-C.Campbell].
1st · 13:04WAS +9% win prob(13:04) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler sacked at JAX 45 for -6 yards (91-R.Kerrigan). FUMBLES (91-R.Kerrigan) [91-R.Kerrigan], RECOVERED by WAS-95-D.Payne at JAX 43. 95-D.Payne to JAX 34 for 9 yards (77-P.Omameh). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dustin Hopkins's 36-yard field goal with 0:04 left in the 4th put Washington Commanders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st1:55Dustin Hopkins·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap A.East+33–0
2nd3:26Kai Forbath·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap M.Overton+33–3
2nd0:23Dede Westbrook·74-yd return TD74-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+73–10
3rd7:37Dustin Hopkins·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap A.East+36–10
4th11:21Kai Forbath·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap M.Overton+36–13
4th0:04Dustin Hopkins·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap A.EastLead never changed again+316–13
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Commanderscategory by categoryJaguars
Commanders8–1Jaguars
247Total yards192
4.1Yards per play3.9
38%Success rate31%
47%Third-down rate38%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
4Explosive plays8
14First downs11
3Sacks taken6
0Turnovers2
The read
Commanders ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.02Commanders: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.30Jaguars: −0.30 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.17Commanders: +0.17 expected points added per play
−0.47Jaguars: −0.47 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.25Commanders: −0.25 expected points added per play
−0.06Jaguars: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 60 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 49 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 3, Jaguars 1.
NoteCommanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 15Against their seasonTendencies
WAS's sack or hit rate, 27.6%, is past their previous high of 21.2% in week 2 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
2.3 times their own weekly swing above their number.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
JAX's sack or hit rate turned over: 3.8% in week 14 against 24.2% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 28 pts
off script — got home · +12.3 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+2.26× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Jaguars24.2%
leaned — got home · +8.2 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+1.24× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteWAS's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 27.6%, 12.3 points above their season mean of 15.3% and 2.3 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Dustin Hopkins+18% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:04) 3-D.Hopkins 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-55-A.East, Holder-5-T.Way.
Q4 0:04 · Commanders · 2nd & 12 at JAX 19 · gained nothing · +0.33 EP · +18.5% win probability
148 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 160 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 68 yards from the WAS 32 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
160 of 160 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
160
EPA per play
-0.15
Success rate
37%
Yards
437
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.0147%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.3659%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.1047%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.1122%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.0440%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Jaguars2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Jaguars2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Jaguars 34 to the Commanders 49
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 34 to the Jaguars 30
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 5 to the Jaguars 22
Commanders3Jaguars0
Field goal11 plays, from the Commanders 44 to the Jaguars 22
The period ended5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 31
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt1 play
Punt7 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 33 to the Jaguars 49
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 9 to the Commanders 16
Commanders3Jaguars3
Field goal11 plays, from the Commanders 46 to the Commanders 15
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 42
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 2 to the Jaguars 10
Commanders3Jaguars9
Touchdown5 plays, from the Commanders 18 to the Commanders 22
Commanders3Jaguars10
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Commanders6Jaguars10
Field goal19 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Jaguars 15
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 35
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 15 to the Commanders 34
The period ended4 plays, from the Jaguars 12 to the Jaguars 47
4th quarter41 plays
Commanders6Jaguars13
Field goal7 plays, from the Jaguars 42 to the Commanders 23
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Commanders12Jaguars13
Commanders13Jaguars13
Touchdown12 plays, from the Commanders 32 to the Jaguars 6
Intercepted8 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Commanders 35
Commanders16Jaguars13
Field goal13 plays, from the Commanders 45 to the Jaguars 17
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Jaguars -7.5
Closing total
36
Commanders moneyline
+296
Jaguars moneyline
-338
Jaguars closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 36; the game landed 29 — under by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 62°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the west; mainly clear.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Commanders 7 days · Jaguars 10 days
Coaches
Jay Gruden vs Doug Marrone
4th · 2:00JAX +9% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 8-J.Johnson pass short left to 26-A.Peterson to JAX 44 for 7 yards (21-A.Bouye; 95-A.Jones).
4th · 2:49WAS +8% win prob(2:49) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass short middle to 12-D.Westbrook to WAS 21 for 14 yards [91-R.Kerrigan]. PENALTY on JAX-10-D.Moncrief, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 35 - No Play.
