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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 AM ET · 15 to play · 1 final
Baltimore Ravens 22 at Los Angeles Chargers 10. Final.
Chargers -4 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 16
Baltimore Ravens 22, Chargers 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 2:54, 1st and 20, on Antonio Gates — 19.9 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
U 42.5 ✓
Chargers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Baltimore Ravens 22–10. Biggest swing: Q4 2:54, Ravens +19.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:54 · 1st and 20
Antonio Gates
Ravens
(2:54) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 85-A.Gates to BAL 38 for 11 yards (48-P.Onwuasor). FUMBLES (48-P.Onwuasor), RECOVERED by BAL-25-T.Young at BAL 38. 25-T.Young for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
19.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Gus EdwardsRavensQ1 14:47(14:47) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards up the middle to LAC 9 for 43 yards (43-M.Davis; 26-C.Hayward).
17.7pts
Mark AndrewsRavensQ3 12:28(12:28) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 89-M.Andrews for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17.9pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Chargers at 1 chunk play.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Ravens at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Ravens won this one — 1 giveaway, against Chargers at 3 giveaways.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.05 expected points per dropback, against Chargers at -0.48 expected points per dropback.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Ravens157 of 167 plays carry both curves
(2:54) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 85-A.Gates to BAL 38 for 11 yards (48-P.Onwuasor). FUMBLES (48-P.Onwuasor), RECOVERED by BAL-25-T.Young at BAL 38. 25-T.Young for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −19.9 for ChargersExpected points −9.06 for ChargersModel and market agree here.play 154
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:54BAL +20% win prob(2:54) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 85-A.Gates to BAL 38 for 11 yards (48-P.Onwuasor). FUMBLES (48-P.Onwuasor), RECOVERED by BAL-25-T.Young at BAL 38. 25-T.Young for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 12:28LAC +18% win prob(12:28) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 89-M.Andrews for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:47LAC +18% win prob(14:47) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards up the middle to LAC 9 for 43 yards (43-M.Davis; 26-C.Hayward).
3rd · 14:55BAL +15% win prob(14:55) (Shotgun) 30-K.Dixon right end to BAL 24 for 4 yards (93-D.Philon). FUMBLES (93-D.Philon), touched at BAL 20, RECOVERED by LAC-54-M.Ingram at BAL 21. 54-M.Ingram to BAL 18 for 3 yards (8-L.Jackson). FUMBLES (8-L.Jackson), and recovers at BAL 17. 54-M.Ingram to BAL 17 for no gain (83-W.Snead IV).
4th · 5:29BAL +13% win prob(5:29) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers sacked at BAL 40 for -11 yards (90-Z.Smith).
4th · 7:35LAC +11% win prob(7:35) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 32-J.Jackson to BAL 34 for 7 yards (24-B.Carr).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mark Andrews's 68-yard touchdown catch with 12:28 left in the 3rd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:47Justin Tucker·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+33–0
2nd2:54Justin Tucker·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+36–0
2nd0:45Michael Badgley·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder D.Jones · snap M.Windt+36–3
3rd5:41Justin Tucker·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+316–10
4th2:54Tavon Young·62-yd defence TD62-yard touchdownthe defence scored itthe defence scored it · two-point no good+622–10
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categoryChargers
Ravens6–3Chargers
363Total yards198
6.2Yards per play3.5
34%Success rate35%
29%Third-down rate31%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays1
15First downs12
3Sacks taken4
1Turnovers3
The read
Ravens ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chargers, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.11Ravens: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.40Chargers: −0.40 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.05Ravens: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.48Chargers: −0.48 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.25Ravens: −0.25 expected points added per play
−0.18Chargers: −0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 59 snaps at a 47% dropback rate against Chargers’s 57 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 4, Chargers 2.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.40.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · +0.6 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Chargers14.3%
right on their number · +1.4 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLAC's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 65.9%, 13.3 points above their season mean of 52.6% and 1.4 times their own 9.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
53 dressed · 8 never used
78Orlando BrownT · Every snap100%62 snaps
68Matt SkuraC · Every snap100%62 snaps
73Marshal YandaG · Every snap100%62 snaps
8Lamar JacksonQB · Every snap100%62 snaps
79Ronnie StanleyT · Every snap100%62 snaps
74James HurstG · Heavy rotation73%45 snaps
15Michael CrabtreeWR · Heavy rotation69%43 snaps
83Willie SneadWR · Heavy rotation68%42 snaps
86Nick BoyleTE · Heavy rotation63%39 snaps
13John BrownWR · Heavy rotation55%34 snaps
30Kenneth DixonRB · Rotational47%29 snaps
10Chris MooreWR · Rotational44%27 snaps
35Gus EdwardsRB · Rotational37%23 snaps
77Bradley BozemanC · Rotational34%21 snaps
87Maxx WilliamsTE · Rotational32%20 snaps
89Mark AndrewsTE · Rotational32%20 snaps
81Hayden HurstTE · Rotational27%17 snaps
88Ty MontgomeryRB · Situational18%11 snaps
71Jermaine EluemunorT · Situational2%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Patrick RicardDLZach SielerDTAlex LewisGTim WilliamsOLBJoe FlaccoQBRobert Griffin IIIQBJavorius AllenRBJordan LasleyWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Jackson pass+21% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(12:28) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 89-M.Andrews for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 12:28 · Ravens · 1st & 10 at BAL 32 · gained 68 · +5.61 EP · +21.4% win probability
155 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 85 yards from the BAL 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
-0.23
Success rate
32%
Yards
559
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48-0.4479%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.1341%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.0150%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.1520%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.480%
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Ravens1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Chargers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Intercepted2 plays
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Ravens3Chargers0
Field goal5 plays, from the Ravens 48 to the Chargers 6
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 33
No good8 plays, from the Ravens 28 to the Chargers 27
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 43 to the Chargers 49
The period ended9 plays, from the Ravens 17 to the Chargers 25
2nd quarter50 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Chargers 24 to the Chargers 2
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 3 to the Chargers 30
Ravens6Chargers0
Field goal12 plays, from the Chargers 48 to the Chargers 17
Ravens6Chargers3
Field goal13 plays, from the Chargers 24 to the Ravens 20
No good11 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Chargers 47
3rd quarter40 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost2 plays
Ravens6Chargers9
Ravens6Chargers10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Ravens 17 to the Ravens 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Ravens12Chargers10
Ravens13Chargers10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Ravens 15 to the Ravens 32
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 38
Ravens16Chargers10
Field goal8 plays, from the Ravens 32 to the Chargers 37
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 26
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 45 to the Ravens 49
The period ended4 plays, from the Chargers 12 to the Chargers 18
4th quarter41 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Punt13 plays, from the Chargers 26 to the Ravens 28
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 2 to the Ravens 7
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Ravens22Chargers10
Touchdown2 plays
Intercepted7 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Ravens 43
The period ended5 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Ravens 41
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Ravenscategory by categoryChargers
Ravens3
Chargers0
