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2018 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 22, 2018 · StubHub Center

Baltimore RavensWinner

22

Los Angeles Chargers

10

LAC -4 upsetU 42.5 ✓

Baltimore Ravens 22–10. Biggest swing: Q4 2:54, BAL +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LAC ↑BAL ↓
Q4 · 2:54BAL — LAC LAC ball · 1st & 20BAL 78%

(2:54) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 85-A.Gates to BAL 38 for 11 yards (48-P.Onwuasor). FUMBLES (48-P.Onwuasor), RECOVERED by BAL-25-T.Young at BAL 38. 25-T.Young for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 2:54BAL +20% win prob(2:54) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 85-A.Gates to BAL 38 for 11 yards (48-P.Onwuasor). FUMBLES (48-P.Onwuasor), RECOVERED by BAL-25-T.Young at BAL 38. 25-T.Young for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q3 · 12:28LAC +18% win prob(12:28) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 89-M.Andrews for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q1 · 14:47LAC +18% win prob(14:47) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards up the middle to LAC 9 for 43 yards (43-M.Davis; 26-C.Hayward).
  4. Q3 · 14:55BAL +15% win prob(14:55) (Shotgun) 30-K.Dixon right end to BAL 24 for 4 yards (93-D.Philon). FUMBLES (93-D.Philon), touched at BAL 20, RECOVERED by LAC-54-M.Ingram at BAL 21. 54-M.Ingram to BAL 18 for 3 yards (8-L.Jackson). FUMBLES (8-L.Jackson), and recovers at BAL 17. 54-M.Ingram to BAL 17 for no gain (83-W.Snead IV).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRavensChargers
Offensive plays5957
Total yards363 (edge)198
Yards per play6.2 (edge)3.5
Expected points added / play-0.11 (edge)-0.40
Success rate34%35% (edge)
Dropback rate47%74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.05 (edge)-0.48
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.25-0.18 (edge)
Third downs4/144/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)1
First downs gained on snaps15 (edge)12
Sacks taken3 (edge)4
Turnovers1 (edge)3

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.40.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

12/22, 204 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

2.7 expected points added · -9.4% completion over expected

Passing · LAC

Philip RiversQB

23/37, 181 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-10.3 expected points added · -7.8% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Gus EdwardsRB

14 att, 92 yds, 0 TD

-3.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Melvin GordonRB

12 att, 41 yds, 1 TD

-1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

5/8 for 58 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 1.4 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Justin JacksonRB

7/10 for 47 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 0.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LACLAC 17200:13Interception
2BALBAL 485462:04Turnover on downs
3LACLAC 25581:33Punt
4BALBAL 288374:12Turnover on downs
5LACLAC 43462:11Punt
6BALBAL 1713817:37Turnover on downs
7LACLAC 37273:59Punt
8BALLAC 4811315:21Turnover on downs
9LACLAC 2410312:10Turnover on downs
10BALBAL 307280:40Turnover on downs
11BALBAL 20200:16Fumble
12LACBAL 174171:26Touchdown
13BALBAL 154851:00Touchdown
14LACLAC 256153:11Punt
15BALBAL 327213:31Turnover on downs
16LACLAC 25662:39Punt
17BALBAL 45491:30Punt
18LACLAC 127111:50Punt
19BALBAL 29402:18Punt
20LACLAC 2613347:44Punt
21BALBAL 2441:35Punt
22LACBAL 391110:20Defensive touchdown
23LACLAC 257321:19Interception
24BALBAL 203211:21End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 85 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Lamar Jackson12/222041032.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Gus Edwards14926.60-3.3
Lamar Jackson13393.000.4
Kenneth Dixon8283.50-6.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Mark Andrews228319%7.4
John Brown2627027%-1.7
Kenneth Dixon2320014%2.2
Michael Crabtree1420018%-3.6
Hayden Hurst121809%-0.6
Nick Boyle221509%0.9
Gus Edwards111305%0.9
Chris Moore11805%0.5
Ty Montgomery01005%-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Patrick Onwuasor812.000
C.J. Mosley430.000
Tony Jefferson510.001
Za'Darius Smith411.500
Marlon Humphrey300.012
Jimmy Smith210.000
Michael Pierce110.000
Tyus Bowser110.000
Terrell Suggs110.000
Eric Weddle200.000

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Philip Rivers23/37181024-10.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Melvin Gordon12413.41-1.9
Travis Benjamin166.000.2
Mike Williams144.00-0.1
Philip Rivers111.00-0.6
Justin Jackson1-1-1.00-0.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Keenan Allen5858022%1.4
Justin Jackson71047028%0.9
Antonio Gates3521014%-9.2
Melvin Gordon331308%-0.7
Virgil Green221206%0.7
Tyrell Williams121206%1.6
Travis Benjamin131108%-1.9
Mike Williams13708%-4.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Adrian Phillips720.000
Jatavis Brown340.000
Derwin James320.001
Brandon Mebane230.000
Casey Hayward320.002
Darius Philon221.500
Kyle Emanuel300.000
Desmond King210.000
Hayes Pullard200.000
Joey Bosa110.500

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LAC -4
Closing total
42.5
BAL moneyline
+178
LAC moneyline
-198

Chargers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 32 — under by 10.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
StubHub Center
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
60°F, wind 5 mph
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
BAL 6 days · LAC 9 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Anthony Lynn