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Buffalo Bills 12 at New England Patriots 24. Final.
Patriots -14 no coverU 46 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 16
New England Patriots 24, Bills 12 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 13:21, 2nd and 10, on Julian Edelman — 4.9 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:21 · 2nd and 10
Julian Edelman
Bills
(13:21) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman to NE 30 for 7 yards (57-L.Alexander).
Patriots closed -14, won by 12 — but didn't cover.
New England Patriots 24–12. Biggest swing: Q1 13:21, Bills +4.9% win probability on one snap.
4.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetPatriotsQ2 12:29(12:29) 8-M.Darr punts 45 yards to NE 22, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 11-J.Edelman to NE 34 for 12 yards (57-L.Alexander). PENALTY on BUF-30-L.Pitts, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 34.
3.0pts
Julian EdelmanPatriotsQ3 5:14(5:14) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 25th TD pass of season, ties Favre & Moon for 2nd-most all-time in a season after turning 40.
2.9pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 13 chunk plays, against Bills at 5 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.13 expected points per carry, against Bills at -0.12 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bills owned this one and still lost it — -0.43 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at -0.75 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Patriots won this one — 1 touchdown on 4 trips, against Bills at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Bills168 of 175 plays carry both curves
(13:21) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman to NE 30 for 7 yards (57-L.Alexander).
Swing −4.9 for PatriotsExpected points +0.35 for PatriotsThe model had Bills 33 points higher than the market did.play 8
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:21BUF +5% win prob(13:21) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman to NE 30 for 7 yards (57-L.Alexander).
2nd · 12:29BUF +3% win prob(12:29) 8-M.Darr punts 45 yards to NE 22, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 11-J.Edelman to NE 34 for 12 yards (57-L.Alexander). PENALTY on BUF-30-L.Pitts, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 34.
3rd · 5:14NE +3% win prob(5:14) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 25th TD pass of season, ties Favre & Moon for 2nd-most all-time in a season after turning 40.
1st · 13:35BUF +3% win prob(13:35) 8-M.Darr punts 47 yards to NE 23, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-30-L.Pitts.
1st · 9:35NE +2% win prob(9:35) 26-S.Michel left tackle to BUF 19 for 19 yards (27-T.White).
3rd · 14:56BUF +2% win prob(14:56) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle intended for 87-R.Gronkowski INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Poyer at NE 24. 21-J.Poyer to NE 24 for no gain (11-J.Edelman).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Sony Michel's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 7:38 left in the 1st put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:38Sony Michel·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
3rd13:33Stephen Hauschka·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder M.Darr · snap R.Ferguson+33–14
3rd10:11Stephen Hauschka·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder M.Darr · snap R.Ferguson+36–14
3rd5:14Julian Edelman·32-yd TD catch32-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+76–21
4th7:47Stephen Gostkowski·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder R.Allen · snap J.Cardona+36–24
4th1:17Zay Jones·31-yd TD catch31-yard touchdown catchfrom Josh Allenfrom Josh Allen · two-point no good+612–24
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryPatriots
Bills1–7Patriots
289Total yards392
4.8Yards per play5.5
37%Success rate39%
17%Third-down rate25%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays13
15First downs19
0Sacks taken1
3Turnovers3
The read
Patriots ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.75 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.35Bills: −0.35 expected points added per play
−0.19Patriots: −0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.43Bills: −0.43 expected points added per play
−0.75Patriots: −0.75 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Bills: −0.12 expected points added per play
+0.13Patriots: +0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 60 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Patriots’s 71 at 37%. Red-zone trips: Bills 2, Patriots 4.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.35.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
NE's pass rate over expected, −18.2 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 2.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −10.0 pts in week 3.
2.1 times their own weekly swing below their number.
71 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NE's early-down pass rate, 33.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 4.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 37.9% in week 4.
2.1 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 2.7-swing turn from week 15.
57 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points.
high through week 16Against their seasonOver Expected
BUF's pass rate over expected, +4.2 pts, is past their previous high of +2.3 pts in week 4 — the highest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
A 2.2-swing turn from week 15.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · −4.4 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Patriots11.4%
right on their number · −3.9 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNE's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -18.2 pts, 17.8 points below their season mean of -0.4 pts and 2.1 times their own 8.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
53 dressed · 8 never used
79Jordan MillsT · Every snap100%61 snaps
73Dion DawkinsT · Every snap100%61 snaps
72Ryan GroyG · Every snap100%61 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Every snap100%61 snaps
11Zay JonesWR · Every snap100%61 snaps
16Robert FosterWR · Full-time97%59 snaps
75Wyatt TellerG · Full-time80%49 snaps
76John MillerG · Heavy rotation74%45 snaps
80Jason CroomTE · Heavy rotation72%44 snaps
19Isaiah McKenzieWR · Heavy rotation64%39 snaps
25LeSean McCoyRB · Heavy rotation51%31 snaps
35Keith FordRB · Rotational49%30 snaps
65Ike BoettgerT · Rotational46%28 snaps
82Logan ThomasTE · Rotational43%26 snaps
10Deonte ThompsonWR · Situational18%11 snaps
42Patrick DiMarcoFB · Situational5%3 snaps
74Jeremiah SirlesT · Situational2%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Ryan LewisCBDean MarloweDBVladimir DucasseGMatt BarkleyQBDerek AndersonQBChris IvoryRBCharles ClayTERay-Ray McCloudWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Brady pass−9% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(2:01) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 34-R.Burkhead to NE 48 for 3 yards (52-C.Thompson). FUMBLES (52-C.Thompson), touched at BUF 49, RECOVERED by BUF-23-M.Hyde at NE 49. 23-M.Hyde pushed ob at NE 40 for 9 yards (34-R.Burkhead).
Q1 2:01 · Patriots · 2nd & 15 at NE 45 · gained 3 · -5.00 EP · −9.1% win probability
166 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 30 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 30 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 88 yards from the NE 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
-0.26
Success rate
38%
Yards
679
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48-0.3675%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.1952%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR23-0.1530%
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR14-0.0714%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.0443%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Patriots0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills0 RB, 0 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 26 to the Bills 30
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 23 to the Patriots 30
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 15 to the Bills 20
Bills0Patriots6
Bills0Patriots7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Patriots 45 to the Bills 4
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 22 to the Bills 24
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Patriots 12 to midfield
No good6 plays, from the Patriots 40 to the Patriots 24
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter37 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 26 to the Bills 33
Bills0Patriots13
Bills0Patriots14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Patriots 44 to the Bills 27
Intercepted2 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bills 49 to the Bills 25
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Bills 29 to the Patriots 25
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Bills 42
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
Intercepted2 plays
Bills3Patriots14
Field goal4 plays, from the Patriots 24 to the Patriots 17
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 12 to the Patriots 20
Bills6Patriots14
Field goal6 plays, from the Bills 41 to the Patriots 23
Bills6Patriots20
Bills6Patriots21
Touchdown12 plays, from the Patriots 12 to the Bills 32
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Bills 26 to the Patriots 30
The period ended7 plays, from the Patriots 6 to the Patriots 34
4th quarter52 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 35 to the Bills 40
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 8 to the Bills 11
Bills6Patriots24
Field goal6 plays, from the Bills 24 to the Bills 2
Punt6 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Bills 33 to the Bills 29
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bills 29 to the Bills 48
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 39 to the Patriots 43
Bills12Patriots24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Patriots 31
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
