2018 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 23, 2018 · Gillette Stadium

Buffalo Bills

New England PatriotsWinner

NE -14 no coverU 46 ✓Patriots closed -14, won by 12 — but didn't cover.

New England Patriots 24–12. Biggest swing: Q1 13:21, BUF +5% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 13:21BUF — NE NE ball · 2nd & 10NE 93%

(13:21) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman to NE 30 for 7 yards (57-L.Alexander).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 13:21BUF +5% win prob(13:21) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman to NE 30 for 7 yards (57-L.Alexander).
Q2 · 12:29BUF +3% win prob(12:29) 8-M.Darr punts 45 yards to NE 22, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 11-J.Edelman to NE 34 for 12 yards (57-L.Alexander). PENALTY on BUF-30-L.Pitts, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 34.
Q3 · 5:14NE +3% win prob(5:14) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 25th TD pass of season, ties Favre & Moon for 2nd-most all-time in a season after turning 40.
Q1 · 13:35BUF +3% win prob(13:35) 8-M.Darr punts 47 yards to NE 23, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-30-L.Pitts.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Patriots
Offensive plays	60	71
Total yards	289	392 (edge)
Yards per play	4.8	5.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.35	-0.19 (edge)
Success rate	37%	39% (edge)
Dropback rate	73%	37%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.43 (edge)	-0.75
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.12	0.13 (edge)
Third downs	2/12	3/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	13 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	1
Turnovers	3	3

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.35.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

20/41, 217 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-11.0 expected points added · -10.5% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Tom BradyQB

13/24, 126 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-12.2 expected points added · -16.5% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Sony MichelRB

18 att, 116 yds, 1 TD

4.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

James WhiteRB

8 att, 41 yds, 1 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Julian EdelmanWR

6/10 for 70 yds, 1 TD

42% of team targets · 1.1 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Zay JonesWR

5/9 for 67 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 1.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 26	5	4	1:36	Punt
2	NE	NE 23	4	7	0:55	Punt
3	BUF	BUF 15	4	5	1:35	Punt
4	NE	NE 45	7	55	3:22	Touchdown
5	BUF	BUF 22	5	2	1:53	Punt
6	NE	NE 12	9	41	3:52	Fumble
7	BUF	NE 40	6	16	1:39	Turnover on downs
8	NE	NE 33	4	-6	1:21	Punt
9	BUF	BUF 26	4	7	1:28	Punt
10	NE	NE 44	6	56	2:20	Touchdown
11	BUF	BUF 37	2	0	0:18	Interception
12	NE	BUF 49	4	24	1:57	Interception
13	BUF	BUF 29	10	46	5:21	Turnover on downs
14	NE	NE 25	5	33	1:44	Punt
15	BUF	BUF 9	1	5	0:39	End of half
16	NE	NE 15	2	0	0:12	Interception
17	BUF	NE 24	4	7	1:19	Turnover on downs
18	NE	NE 12	5	16	2:13	Punt
19	BUF	BUF 41	5	19	1:10	Turnover on downs
20	NE	NE 12	12	98	5:01	Touchdown
21	BUF	BUF 26	5	68	2:17	Fumble
22	NE	NE 6	12	45	5:48	Punt
23	BUF	BUF 8	4	3	1:05	Punt
24	NE	BUF 24	6	19	3:11	Turnover on downs
25	BUF	BUF 25	5	8	1:05	Punt
26	NE	BUF 33	4	4	1:32	Turnover on downs
27	BUF	BUF 29	4	19	1:06	Interception
28	NE	NE 39	4	0	1:02	Punt
29	BUF	BUF 20	10	80	1:51	Touchdown
30	NE	NE 42	3	0	1:08	End of game

0 of 30 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 98 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	20/41	217	1	2	0	-11.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Keith Ford	7	33	4.7	-0.2
Josh Allen	5	30	6.0	-0.4
LeSean McCoy	6	9	1.5	-2.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Zay Jones	5	9	67	1	23%	1.7
Jason Croom	4	6	55	0	15%	-4.1
Robert Foster	4	7	52	0	18%	-0.6
Keith Ford	2	4	14	0	10%	-0.4
Deonte Thompson	1	2	11	0	5%	-3.2
LeSean McCoy	3	3	10	0	8%	-0.3
Isaiah McKenzie	1	8	8	0	20%	-8.8
Logan Thomas	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Lorenzo Alexander	8	7	0.0	1	1
Tremaine Edmunds	3	8	0.0	0	1
Corey Thompson	5	4	0.0	0	0
Levi Wallace	4	4	0.0	0	0
Micah Hyde	4	4	0.0	0	0
Jordan Poyer	3	4	1.0	1	1
Harrison Phillips	2	4	0.0	0	0
Star Lotulelei	2	1	0.0	0	0
Tre'Davious White	2	1	0.0	0	0
Jason Croom	1	1	0.0	0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	13/24	126	1	2	1	-12.2
Brian Hoyer	0/1	0	0	0	0	-2.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Sony Michel	18	116	6.4	1	4.2
Cordarrelle Patterson	4	66	16.5	0	4.2
James White	8	41	5.1	1	0.4
Rex Burkhead	13	39	3.0	0	-3.2
Phillip Dorsett	2	13	6.5	0	0.3
Brian Hoyer	2	-2	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Julian Edelman	6	10	70	1	42%	1.1
Rex Burkhead	4	5	40	0	21%	-7.7
James White	2	4	13	0	17%	-1.7
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	2	3	0	8%	-1.4
Rob Gronkowski	0	3	0	0	13%	-7.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Patrick Chung	5	2	0	0
Trey Flowers	2	4	0	0
Keion Crossen	5	0	0	0
Jonathan Jones	4	0	0	0
Lawrence Guy	1	2	0	0
Stephon Gilmore	3	0	0	0
Kyle Van Noy	2	1	0	0
Jason McCourty	3	0	1	2
Elandon Roberts	2	1	0	0
Devin McCourty	2	0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -14
Closing total: 46
BUF moneyline: +560
NE moneyline: -750

Patriots closed -14, won by 12 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 46; the game landed 36 — under by 10.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 40°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: BUF 7 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Bill Belichick

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.