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Chicago Bears 14, 49ers 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 7:43, 1st and 10, on Danny Trevathan — 21.1 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 7:43 · 1st and 10
Danny Trevathan
Bears
(7:43) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short left intended for 11-M.Goodwin INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Trevathan at CHI 14. 59-D.Trevathan to CHI 14 for no gain (11-M.Goodwin).
Bears closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Chicago Bears 14–9. Biggest swing: Q4 7:43, Bears +21.1% win probability on one snap.
21.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheet49ersQ2 8:58(8:58) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 30, RECOVERED by SF-99-D.Buckner at CHI 26. Backward pass to T.Cohen The Replay Official reviewed the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
15.7pts
Kendrick Bourne49ersQ4 8:27(8:27) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass deep middle to 84-K.Bourne to CHI 20 for 22 yards (38-A.Amos). Caught at CHI 25. 5-YAC
13.8pts
What separated them
Red zone
Bears won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against 49ers at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bears won this one — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against 49ers at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Bears at 3 giveaways.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 5 chunk plays, against Bears at 2 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Bears144 of 154 plays carry both curves
(7:43) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short left intended for 11-M.Goodwin INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Trevathan at CHI 14. 59-D.Trevathan to CHI 14 for no gain (11-M.Goodwin).
Swing −21.1 for 49ersExpected points −4.62 for 49ersThe model had 49ers 8 points higher than the market did.play 130
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 7:43CHI +21% win prob(7:43) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short left intended for 11-M.Goodwin INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Trevathan at CHI 14. 59-D.Trevathan to CHI 14 for no gain (11-M.Goodwin).
2nd · 8:58CHI +16% win prob(8:58) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 30, RECOVERED by SF-99-D.Buckner at CHI 26. Backward pass to T.Cohen The Replay Official reviewed the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
4th · 8:27SF +14% win prob(8:27) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass deep middle to 84-K.Bourne to CHI 20 for 22 yards (38-A.Amos). Caught at CHI 25. 5-YAC
4th · 1:14CHI +13% win prob(1:14) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass incomplete deep right to 11-M.Goodwin.
1st · 5:53CHI +12% win prob(5:53) 1-C.Parkey 37 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
2nd · 0:26SF +11% win prob(:26) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle to 84-K.Bourne to CHI 5 for 8 yards (59-D.Trevathan). Caught at CHI 9. 4-YAC The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jordan Howard's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 4:17 left in the 3rd put Chicago Bears ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
2nd10:58Robbie Gould·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap C.Holba+30–3
2nd5:52Robbie Gould·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap C.Holba+30–6
2nd0:05Robbie Gould·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap C.Holba+37–9
3rd4:17Jordan Howard·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+714–9
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by category49ers
Bears6–349ers
327Total yards279
5.6Yards per play5.2
55%Success rate41%
55%Third-down rate50%
2Red-zone touchdowns0
2Explosive plays5
19First downs15
3Sacks taken1
3Turnovers1
The read
Bears ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Bears: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.1049ers: −0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.23Bears: +0.23 expected points added per play
−0.0549ers: −0.05 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.11Bears: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.2149ers: −0.21 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 58 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against 49ers’s 54 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Bears 3, 49ers 4.
NoteBears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 16Against their seasonTendencies
SF's early-down pass rate, 69.2%, is past their previous high of 66.0% in week 4 — the highest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
39 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · +0.7 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
49ers15.6%
right on their number · +0.1 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.02× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSF's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 69.2%, 14.5 points above their season mean of 54.7% and 1.6 times their own 9.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
N.Mullens pass−23% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(7:43) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short left intended for 11-M.Goodwin INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Trevathan at CHI 14. 59-D.Trevathan to CHI 14 for no gain (11-M.Goodwin).
Q4 7:43 · 49ers · 1st & 10 at CHI 20 · gained nothing · -4.62 EP · −23.2% win probability
142 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 154 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 90 yards from the CHI 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
154 of 154 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
154
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
44%
Yards
604
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.1469%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR24-0.3763%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24-0.0192%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.1940%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.1875%
Bears3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR6-0.4917%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Bears2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
49ers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
49ers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
154 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
154 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 28 to the 49ers 49
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 26
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
No good9 plays, from the Bears 25 to the 49ers 19
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 27 to the 49ers 28
Punt5 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the 49ers 37 to the Bears 44
2nd quarter46 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Bears049ers3
Field goal11 plays, from the Bears 42 to the Bears 11
Offense on the fieldThree backs, one tight end and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defenders
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Bears 15 to the Bears 34
Bears049ers6
Field goal8 plays, from the Bears 26 to the Bears 12
Bears649ers6
Bears749ers6
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bears 25 to the 49ers 4
Bears749ers9
Field goal10 plays, from the 49ers 32 to the Bears 5
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt8 plays, from the 49ers 24 to the 49ers 44
Bears1349ers9
Bears1449ers9
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bears 10 to the 49ers 2
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 14 to the 49ers 34
The period ended4 plays, from the Bears 35 to the Bears 45
4th quarter39 plays
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 47 to the 49ers 40
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the 49ers 15 to the Bears 20
Offense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.7 seconds
Fumble lost15 plays, from the Bears 14 to the 49ers 44
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.2 seconds
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the 49ers 24 to the Bears 45
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bears -3.5
Closing total
44
Bears moneyline
-190
49ers moneyline
+171
Bears closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Total closed 44; the game landed 23 — under by 21.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 57°F at kickoff; still at 5 mph out of the north-west; clear.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Bears 7 days · 49ers 7 days
Coaches
Matt Nagy vs Kyle Shanahan
4th · 2:00CHI +10% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 12-A.Robinson II to SF 34 for 10 yards (33-T.Moore). FUMBLES (33-T.Moore), RECOVERED by SF-26-G.Mabin at SF 22. 26-G.Mabin to SF 24 for 2 yards (80-T.Burton). 12-yds of loose ball yardage
4th · 10:56SF +9% win prob(10:56) 4-N.Mullens pass deep middle to 85-G.Kittle to CHI 39 for 35 yards (52-K.Mack). Caught at CHI 47. 8-YAC
