2018 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 23, 2018 · Levi's Stadium

Chicago BearsWinner

San Francisco 49ers

CHI -3.5 ✓U 44 ✓Bears closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 5.

Chicago Bears 14–9. Biggest swing: Q4 7:43, CHI +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 7:43CHI — SF SF ball · 1st & 10CHI 62%

(7:43) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short left intended for 11-M.Goodwin INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Trevathan at CHI 14. 59-D.Trevathan to CHI 14 for no gain (11-M.Goodwin).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 7:43CHI +21% win prob(7:43) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short left intended for 11-M.Goodwin INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Trevathan at CHI 14. 59-D.Trevathan to CHI 14 for no gain (11-M.Goodwin).
Q2 · 8:58CHI +16% win prob(8:58) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 30, RECOVERED by SF-99-D.Buckner at CHI 26. Backward pass to T.Cohen The Replay Official reviewed the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
Q4 · 8:27SF +14% win prob(8:27) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass deep middle to 84-K.Bourne to CHI 20 for 22 yards (38-A.Amos). Caught at CHI 25. 5-YAC
Q4 · 1:14CHI +13% win prob(1:14) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass incomplete deep right to 11-M.Goodwin.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bears	49ers
Offensive plays	58	54
Total yards	327 (edge)	279
Yards per play	5.6 (edge)	5.2
Expected points added / play	0.08 (edge)	-0.10
Success rate	55% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	55%	72%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.23 (edge)	-0.05
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.11 (edge)	-0.21
Third downs	6/11 (edge)	7/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

25/29, 246 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

10.0 expected points added · +17.0% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Nick MullensQB

22/38, 241 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-2.1 expected points added · -2.7% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

Jordan HowardRB

13 att, 53 yds, 1 TD

2.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Jeffery WilsonRB

11 att, 27 yds, 0 TD

-2.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

Allen RobinsonWR

6/8 for 85 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 1.4 expected points added

Receiving · SF

George KittleTE

7/12 for 74 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 2.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 28	7	23	2:59	Punt
2	SF	SF 20	4	6	1:26	Punt
3	CHI	CHI 25	8	61	4:47	Turnover on downs
4	SF	SF 27	4	1	0:46	Punt
5	CHI	CHI 21	4	5	2:42	Punt
6	SF	SF 37	12	63	6:26	Turnover on downs
7	CHI	CHI 15	5	19	2:05	Fumble
8	SF	CHI 26	7	14	3:00	Turnover on downs
9	CHI	CHI 25	10	70	3:57	Touchdown
10	SF	SF 32	9	63	1:52	Turnover on downs
11	SF	SF 24	8	20	3:03	Punt
12	CHI	CHI 10	13	75	7:43	Touchdown
13	SF	SF 14	6	11	2:41	Punt
14	CHI	CHI 35	9	22	4:27	Punt
15	SF	SF 15	8	70	4:29	Interception
16	CHI	CHI 14	11	52	5:45	Fumble
17	SF	SF 24	6	31	0:47	Turnover on downs
18	CHI	CHI 45	2	0	1:05	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 75 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	25/29	246	1	0	3	10.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jordan Howard	13	53	4.1	1	2.6
Tarik Cohen	6	12	2.0	0	-2.6
Allen Robinson	1	9	9.0	0	1.0
Taylor Gabriel	1	8	8.0	0	0.8
Anthony Miller	1	4	4.0	0	0.2
Mitchell Trubisky	5	3	0.6	0	-4.3
Taquan Mizzell	1	1	1.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Allen Robinson	6	8	85	0	28%	1.4
Trey Burton	5	5	30	0	17%	1.3
Taylor Gabriel	3	3	28	0	10%	0.8
Taquan Mizzell	2	2	27	0	7%	1.4
Anthony Miller	3	3	24	1	10%	4.4
Ben Braunecker	1	1	18	0	3%	1.3
Jordan Howard	2	3	17	0	10%	-0.1
Tarik Cohen	1	1	7	0	3%	0.7
Josh Bellamy	1	1	6	0	3%	0.2
Adam Shaheen	1	2	4	0	7%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Roquan Smith	6	3	1.0	0	0
Adrian Amos	7	1	0.0	0	1
Danny Trevathan	7	0	0.0	1	2
Khalil Mack	2	2	0.0	0	0
Kevin Toliver	2	0	0.0	0	0
Prince Amukamara	1	1	0.0	0	0
Kyle Fuller	2	0	0.0	0	0
Trey Burton	1	0	0.0	0	0
Nick Kwiatkoski	1	0	0.0	0	0
Deon Bush	1	0	0.0	0	0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nick Mullens	22/38	241	0	1	1	-2.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jeffery Wilson	11	27	2.5	0	-2.8
Matt Breida	4	20	5.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
George Kittle	7	12	74	32%	2.5
Kendrick Bourne	4	6	73	16%	3.0
Marquise Goodwin	3	9	29	24%	-4.4
Trent Taylor	1	1	23	3%	1.7
Dante Pettis	3	5	21	14%	-1.7
Jeffery Wilson	2	2	11	5%	-0.5
Matt Breida	1	1	6	3%	0.1
Richie James	1	1	4	3%	-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Elijah Lee	7	1	0.0
Tarvarius Moore	7	0	0.0
Marcell Harris	4	1	0.0
Fred Warner	3	2	0.0
K'Waun Williams	3	2	0.0
DeForest Buckner	3	0	1.0
D.J. Jones	2	1	0.0
Solomon Thomas	2	1	0.0
D.J. Reed	2	1	0.0
Cassius Marsh	2	1	2.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CHI -3.5
Closing total: 44
CHI moneyline: -190
SF moneyline: +171

Bears closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 5.

Total closed 44; the game landed 23 — under by 21.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 50°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: CHI 7 days · SF 7 days
Coaches: Matt Nagy vs Kyle Shanahan