2018 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 23, 2018 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Cincinnati Bengals

Cleveland BrownsWinner

CLE -10 no cover44 pushBrowns closed -10, won by 8 — but didn't cover.

Cleveland Browns 26–18. Biggest swing: Q1 7:41, CIN +6% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 7:41CIN — CLE CIN ball · 3rd & 4CLE 72%

(7:41) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel sacked at 50 for -8 yards (53-J.Schobert). FUMBLES (53-J.Schobert) [53-J.Schobert], recovered by CIN-25-G.Bernard at 50.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 7:41CIN +6% win prob(7:41) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel sacked at 50 for -8 yards (53-J.Schobert). FUMBLES (53-J.Schobert) [53-J.Schobert], recovered by CIN-25-G.Bernard at 50.
Q1 · 4:29CLE +6% win prob(4:29) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to CIN 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 30 for 2 yards (27-T.Thomas).
Q1 · 13:16CIN +5% win prob(13:16) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 29-D.Johnson to CLE 42 for 4 yards (30-J.Bates).
Q1 · 14:50CLE +5% win prob(14:50) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 29-D.Johnson to CLE 33 for 21 yards (97-G.Atkins). 6 B.Mayfield pitched pass forward to 29 D Johnson

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Browns
Offensive plays	46	63
Total yards	212	496 (edge)
Yards per play	4.6	7.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.01	0.39 (edge)
Success rate	43%	56% (edge)
Dropback rate	57%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.08	0.53 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07	0.12 (edge)
Third downs	1/8	5/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	0 (edge)
Turnovers	0	0

Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.39 expected points added per play vs 0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

27/37, 284 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

14.7 expected points added · +4.8% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Jeff DriskelQB

13/19, 133 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

2.1 expected points added · +2.6% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

19 att, 112 yds, 0 TD

1.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

17 att, 68 yds, 0 TD

-3.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Breshad PerrimanWR

2/4 for 76 yds, 0 TD

11% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

David NjokuTE

3/4 for 73 yds, 1 TD

11% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 12	7	30	2:47	Punt
2	CIN	CIN 22	9	28	5:15	Punt
3	CLE	CLE 15	6	20	2:37	Punt
4	CIN	CIN 30	4	1	1:38	Punt
5	CLE	CLE 26	14	74	7:23	Touchdown
6	CIN	CIN 25	5	-11	1:35	Punt
7	CLE	CLE 30	4	70	1:33	Touchdown
8	CIN	CIN 21	7	19	2:17	Punt
9	CLE	CLE 20	10	61	4:45	Turnover on downs
10	CIN	CIN 25	2	0	0:10	End of half
11	CIN	CIN 25	10	39	5:09	Punt
12	CLE	CLE 13	10	87	4:58	Touchdown
13	CIN	CIN 31	11	36	4:58	Turnover on downs
14	CLE	CLE 25	15	72	7:29	Turnover on downs
15	CIN	CIN 25	8	75	2:30	Touchdown
16	CLE	CLE 28	5	6	1:03	Punt
17	CIN	CLE 23	4	25	0:57	Touchdown
18	CLE	CLE 16	7	76	2:56	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 87 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jeff Driskel	13/19	133	2	0	3	2.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Joe Mixon	17	68	4.0	-3.3
Jeff Driskel	5	21	4.2	-1.1
John Ross	1	7	7.0	0.4
Clayton Fejedelem	1	6	6.0	2.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
C.J. Uzomah	4	5	49	1	26%	5.2
Cody Core	2	3	36	0	16%	4.3
Alex Erickson	2	2	35	0	11%	2.3
Joe Mixon	2	2	10	0	11%	-0.1
John Ross	1	5	3	1	26%	-2.9
Giovani Bernard	2	2	0	0	11%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Jessie Bates	5	3	0
Darqueze Dennard	6	1	0
Shawn Williams	5	1	0
Nick Vigil	4	2	0
Hardy Nickerson	4	1	0
Darius Phillips	4	1	1
Carlos Dunlap	2	2	1
Christian Ringo	1	1	0
William Jackson	2	0	1
Jordan Willis	2	0	0

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	27/37	284	3	0	0	14.7
Jarvis Landry	1/1	63	0	0	0	4.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Nick Chubb	19	112	5.9	1.8
Baker Mayfield	6	16	2.7	-2.4
Duke Johnson	2	12	6.0	0.7
Jarvis Landry	1	6	6.0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Breshad Perriman	2	4	76	0	11%	3.5
David Njoku	3	4	73	1	11%	6.2
Rashard Higgins	6	7	60	1	18%	5.5
Duke Johnson	6	6	54	0	16%	1.8
Jarvis Landry	4	8	47	0	21%	1.0
Darren Fells	3	3	18	1	8%	2.8
Dontrell Hilliard	1	1	15	0	3%	1.0
Nick Chubb	2	3	3	0	8%	-2.3
Seth DeValve	1	1	1	0	3%	-0.4
Antonio Callaway	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Myles Garrett	3	2	0.0	0
Denzel Ward	5	0	0.0	0
Jabrill Peppers	1	3	0.0	0
Larry Ogunjobi	4	0	1.0	0
Genard Avery	3	1	1.0	1
Damarious Randall	1	2	0.0	0
Joe Schobert	3	0	1.0	0
Jamie Collins	3	0	0.0	0
Derrick Kindred	3	0	0.0	0
T.J. Carrie	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CLE -10
Closing total: 44
CIN moneyline: +334
CLE moneyline: -385

Browns closed -10, won by 8 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44 and landed exactly there — a push.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 37°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: CIN 7 days · CLE 8 days
Coaches: Marvin Lewis vs Gregg Williams

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.