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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:29 AM ET · 16 to play
Cincinnati Bengals 18 at Cleveland Browns 26. Final.
Browns -10 no cover44 push
The verdict · 2018 Week 16
Cleveland Browns 26, Bengals 18 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 7:41, 3rd and 4, on Jeff Driskel — 6.1 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 7:41 · 3rd and 4
Jeff Driskel
Browns
(7:41) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel sacked at 50 for -8 yards (53-J.Schobert). FUMBLES (53-J.Schobert) [53-J.Schobert], recovered by CIN-25-G.Bernard at 50.
Browns closed -10, won by 8 — but didn't cover.
Cleveland Browns 26–18. Biggest swing: Q1 7:41, Browns +6.1% win probability on one snap.
6.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Duke JohnsonBengalsQ1 13:16(13:16) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 29-D.Johnson to CLE 42 for 4 yards (30-J.Bates).
5.4pts
Unnamed on the sheetBrownsQ1 4:29(4:29) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to CIN 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 30 for 2 yards (27-T.Thomas).
5.7pts
What separated them
Third down
Browns won this one — 5 of 11 on third down, against Bengals at 1 of 8 on third down.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Browns won this one — +0.39 expected points per snap, against Bengals at +0.01 expected points per snap.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Browns at 3 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Browns won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Bengals146 of 153 plays carry both curves
(7:41) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel sacked at 50 for -8 yards (53-J.Schobert). FUMBLES (53-J.Schobert) [53-J.Schobert], recovered by CIN-25-G.Bernard at 50.
Swing +6.1 for BrownsExpected points +2.68 for BrownsThe model had Bengals 23 points higher than the market did.play 17
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 7:41CIN +6% win prob(7:41) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel sacked at 50 for -8 yards (53-J.Schobert). FUMBLES (53-J.Schobert) [53-J.Schobert], recovered by CIN-25-G.Bernard at 50.
1st · 4:29CLE +6% win prob(4:29) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to CIN 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 30 for 2 yards (27-T.Thomas).
1st · 13:16CIN +5% win prob(13:16) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 29-D.Johnson to CLE 42 for 4 yards (30-J.Bates).
1st · 14:50CLE +5% win prob(14:50) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 29-D.Johnson to CLE 33 for 21 yards (97-G.Atkins). 6 B.Mayfield pitched pass forward to 29 D Johnson
1st · 12:13CLE +5% win prob(12:13) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to CIN 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.
1st · 5:07CIN +5% win prob(5:07) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 81-R.Higgins pushed ob at CIN 10 for 55 yards (30-J.Bates). PENALTY on CLE-81-R.Higgins, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 35 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
David Njoku's 3-yard touchdown catch with 10:23 left in the 2nd put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
4th15:00Randy Bullock·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+33–23
4th7:29Greg Joseph·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder B.Colquitt · snap C.Hughlett+33–26
4th4:56C.J. Uzomah·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Jeff Driskelfrom Jeff Driskel+710–26
4th3:00John Ross·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Jeff Driskelfrom Jeff Driskel · two-point good+818–26
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryBrowns
Bengals0–8Browns
212Total yards496
4.6Yards per play7.9
43%Success rate56%
13%Third-down rate45%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays7
15First downs22
3Sacks taken0
0Turnovers0
The read
Browns ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.01Bengals: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.39Browns: +0.39 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.08Bengals: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.53Browns: +0.53 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Bengals: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.12Browns: +0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 46 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Browns’s 63 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 2, Browns 6.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.39 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CIN's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 5.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 2.1% in week 6.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 15.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
high through week 16Against their seasonOver Expected
CLE's pass rate over expected, +13.9 pts, is past their previous high of +11.7 pts in week 13 — the highest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
2.4 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.3-swing turn from week 15.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 18 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −12.8 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−1.83× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Browns19.2%
leaned — got home · +6.4 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+1.31× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCLE's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 13.9 pts, 13.5 points above their season mean of 0.4 pts and 2.4 times their own 5.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Landry pass+9% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(8:45) 80-J.Landry pass deep right to 19-B.Perriman to CIN 7 for 63 yards (36-S.Williams, 30-J.Bates). 6 B Mayfield handed off to 11 A Calloway who pitched to 80 J Landry
Q2 8:45 · Browns · 1st & 10 at CLE 30 · gained 63 · +4.00 EP · +9.3% win probability
144 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 153 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 87 yards from the CLE 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
153 of 153 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
153
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
44%
Yards
704
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.4256%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.1650%
Browns1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR11+0.2782%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.5140%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.4820%
Browns3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR5+0.3860%
Bengals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Bengals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
153 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
153 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 12 to the Browns 42
Punt9 plays, from the Bengals 22 to the Browns 42
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 15 to the Browns 35
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Bengals 37
The period ended6 plays, from the Browns 26 to the Bengals 39
2nd quarter41 plays
Bengals0Browns6
Bengals0Browns7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bengals 35 to the Bengals 3
Punt5 plays
Bengals0Browns13
Touchdown4 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Bengals 1
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 21 to midfield
Bengals0Browns16
Field goal12 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Bengals 18
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt12 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Browns 40
Bengals0Browns22
Bengals0Browns23
Touchdown10 plays, from the Browns 13 to the Bengals 17
The period ended12 plays, from the Bengals 31 to the Browns 21
4th quarter43 plays
Bengals3Browns23
Field goal1 play
Bengals3Browns26
Field goal16 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Bengals 13
Bengals9Browns26
Bengals10Browns26
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Browns 14
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 28 to the Browns 35
Bengals16Browns26
Bengals18Browns26
Touchdown4 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Browns 3
The period ended8 plays, from the Browns 16 to the Bengals 3
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Browns -10
Closing total
44
Bengals moneyline
+334
Browns moneyline
-385
Browns closed -10, won by 8 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44 and landed exactly there — a push.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 40°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the south-west; overcast.
Referee
Tony Corrente
Rest
Bengals 7 days · Browns 8 days
Coaches
Marvin Lewis vs Gregg Williams
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 8:45CLE +5% win prob(8:45) 80-J.Landry pass deep right to 19-B.Perriman to CIN 7 for 63 yards (36-S.Williams, 30-J.Bates). 6 B Mayfield handed off to 11 A Calloway who pitched to 80 J Landry
1st · 12:13CLE +5% win prob(12:13) 6-J.Driskel scrambles right end to CIN 37 for 15 yards.
