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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:55 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Week 16 · Mon, Dec 24, 2018 · Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
Final
BroncosDenver14
BY 13final margin
RaidersOakland27
Denver Broncos 14 at Oakland Raiders 27. Final.
Broncos -2.5 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 16
Oakland Raiders 27, Broncos 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 10:35, 4th and 12 — 13.8 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:35 · 4th and 12
Unnamed on the sheet
Raiders
(10:35) 3-C.Wadman punts 65 yards to LV 1, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 17-D.Harris for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
U 42.5 ✓
16.8 mph wind
Broncos closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Oakland Raiders 27–14. Biggest swing: Q1 10:35, Raiders +13.8% win probability on one snap. Played in 16.8 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
13.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Phillip LindsayBroncosQ1 14:53(14:53) 30-P.Lindsay up the middle to DEN 26 for 3 yards (22-R.Melvin, 50-N.Morrow).
9.7pts
Phillip LindsayBroncosQ1 5:05(5:05) 30-P.Lindsay left guard to DEN 36 for 11 yards (99-A.Key). PENALTY on LV-92-P.Hall, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 36.
Neither club separated from the other on any measure by enough to be worth calling a difference.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 36.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 100 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Broncos163 of 175 plays carry both curves
(10:35) 3-C.Wadman punts 65 yards to LV 1, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 17-D.Harris for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Swing +13.8 for RaidersExpected points +5.71 for RaidersThe model had Raiders 11 points higher than the market did.play 10
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 10:35DEN +14% win prob(10:35) 3-C.Wadman punts 65 yards to LV 1, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 17-D.Harris for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
1st · 14:53OAK +10% win prob(14:53) 30-P.Lindsay up the middle to DEN 26 for 3 yards (22-R.Melvin, 50-N.Morrow).
1st · 5:05OAK +8% win prob(5:05) 30-P.Lindsay left guard to DEN 36 for 11 yards (99-A.Key). PENALTY on LV-92-P.Hall, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 36.
1st · 0:52OAK +6% win prob(:52) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum to DEN 40 for -6 yards (50-N.Morrow). FUMBLES (50-N.Morrow), recovered by DEN-30-P.Lindsay at DEN 42. 30-P.Lindsay ran ob at LV 47 for 11 yards (25-E.Harris).
1st · 5:47DEN +6% win prob(5:47) 81-T.Patrick left end to DEN 25 for -7 yards (22-R.Melvin).
1st · 7:09DEN +6% win prob(7:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 15 for -8 yards (99-A.Gotsis).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Harris's 99-yard return touchdown with 10:35 left in the 1st put Oakland Raiders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:35D.Harris·99-yd return TD99-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kickLead never changed again+70–7
4th7:40Courtland Sutton·19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Case Keenumfrom Case Keenum+714–24
4th4:42D.Carlson·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder J.Townsend · snap T.Sieg+314–27
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
4 of 4 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DEN's pass rate over expected turned over: +9.2 pts in week 15 against −6.2 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
4 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 12 pts
right on their number · −3.3 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Raiders—
Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was DEN's pass rate over expected, -6.2 pts against a season mean of -2.7 pts — and DEN swings 5.8 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Wadman punts−16% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:35) 3-C.Wadman punts 65 yards to LV 1, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 17-D.Harris for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q1 10:35 · Broncos · 4th & 12 at DEN 34 · gained nothing · -5.71 EP · −15.6% win probability
161 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 89 yards from the LV 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; OAK attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
40%
Yards
573
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.1267%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.0854%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR11+0.019%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.0290%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.2233%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.3440%
Broncos2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Broncos1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Broncos1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Broncos0Raiders6
Touchdown9 plays, from the Broncos 23 to the Broncos 36
Broncos0Raiders7
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 31 to the Raiders 48
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 14 to the Raiders 28
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 21 to midfield
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Raiders 26
The period ended6 plays, from the Broncos 37 to the Raiders 47
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt3 plays
Broncos0Raiders13
Broncos0Raiders14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Raiders 11 to the Broncos 24
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 12 to the Broncos 46
Broncos0Raiders17
Field goal15 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Broncos 25
No good6 plays, from the Broncos 40 to the Raiders 40
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 25 to midfield
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 16 to the Broncos 35
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 32 to the Raiders 40
Broncos6Raiders17
Broncos7Raiders17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Broncos 18 to the Raiders 7
The period ended11 plays, from the Raiders 28 to the Broncos 34
4th quarter50 plays
Broncos7Raiders23
Broncos7Raiders24
Touchdown6 plays, from the Broncos 31 to the Broncos 3
Broncos13Raiders24
Broncos14Raiders24
Touchdown15 plays, from the Broncos 23 to the Raiders 19
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 36 to the Raiders 41
Intercepted2 plays
Broncos14Raiders27
Field goal6 plays, from the Broncos 31 to the Broncos 27
Intercepted7 plays, from the Broncos 18 to the Broncos 24
The period ended7 plays, from the Broncos 18 to the Broncos 5
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Broncos-6.2 pts
Broncos0
Raiders6
