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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:57 AM ET · 16 to play
Green Bay Packers 44, Jets 38 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at OT 7:54, 3rd and 10, on Aaron Rodgers — 38.7 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 7:54 · 3rd and 10
Aaron Rodgers
Packers
(7:54) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling [46-N.Hewitt]. PENALTY on NYJ-22-T.Johnson, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced at GB 40 - No Play.
Packers closed -3 and covered, winning by 6.
Green Bay Packers 44–38. Biggest swing: OT 7:54, Packers +38.7% win probability on one snap.
38.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jamaal WilliamsPackersQ4 2:25(2:25) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Williams to NYJ 24 for 26 yards (51-B.Copeland).
17.6pts
Unnamed on the sheetJetsQ4 1:122-M.Crosby kicks 54 yards from GB 35 to NYJ 11. 19-A.Roberts pushed ob at GB 38 for 51 yards (54-J.Crawford).
19.2pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Packers won this one — +0.44 expected points per carry, against Jets at -0.17 expected points per carry.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Packers won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Jets at 6 chunk plays.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Packers won this one — 5 of 12 on third down, against Jets at 3 of 11 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Jets owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Packers at 1 giveaway.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Elijah McGuireJetsSpike14 carries, 5 targets — 3 for 50, 35 on the ground, 2 TD.
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Packers195 of 209 plays carry both curves
(7:54) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling [46-N.Hewitt]. PENALTY on NYJ-22-T.Johnson, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced at GB 40 - No Play.
Swing −38.7 for JetsExpected points −3.24 for JetsModel and market agree here.play 201
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 7:54NYJ +39% win prob(7:54) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling [46-N.Hewitt]. PENALTY on NYJ-22-T.Johnson, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced at GB 40 - No Play.
4th · 1:12NYJ +19% win prob2-M.Crosby kicks 54 yards from GB 35 to NYJ 11. 19-A.Roberts pushed ob at GB 38 for 51 yards (54-J.Crawford).
4th · 2:25NYJ +18% win prob(2:25) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Williams to NYJ 24 for 26 yards (51-B.Copeland).
4th · 1:55NYJ +17% win prob(1:55) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles left end to NYJ 1 for 23 yards (33-J.Adams).
4th · 1:16NYJ +15% win prob(1:16) 12-A.Rodgers up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 5:06NYJ +13% win prob2-M.Crosby kicks 64 yards from GB 35 to NYJ 1. 19-A.Roberts for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Davante Adams's 16-yard touchdown catch with 6:28 left in overtime put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Packers ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Jets, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.52 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.34Packers: +0.34 expected points added per play
+0.29Jets: +0.29 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.32Packers: +0.32 expected points added per play
+0.52Jets: +0.52 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.44Packers: +0.44 expected points added per play
−0.17Jets: −0.17 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 79 snaps at a 78% dropback rate against Jets’s 57 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Packers 7, Jets 7.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs 0.29.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
GB's early-down pass rate, 78.1%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 3.1 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 73.0% in week 5.
64 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
GB's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, was the highest of the 20 team-games charted in week 16 — 16.7 points clear of the next team along.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 21.2 points.
high through week 16Against their seasonOver Expected
GB's pass rate over expected, +12.4 pts, is past their previous high of +11.3 pts in week 2 — the highest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 15.
78 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.7 points.
NYJ's pass rate over expected turned over: −6.6 pts in week 15 against +8.4 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 18 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.0 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−1.26× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Jets19.4%
right on their number · +1.8 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 62 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYJ's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 8.4 pts, 13.0 points above their season mean of -4.6 pts and 1.9 times their own 6.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
53 dressed · 9 never used
62Lucas PatrickG · Every snap100%90 snaps
69David BakhtiariT · Every snap100%90 snaps
75Bryan BulagaOT · Every snap100%90 snaps
63Corey LinsleyC · Every snap100%90 snaps
12Aaron RodgersQB · Every snap100%90 snaps
17Davante AdamsWR · Full-time96%86 snaps
30Jamaal WilliamsRB · Full-time94%85 snaps
64Justin McCrayG · Full-time92%83 snaps
83Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Heavy rotation79%71 snaps
80Jimmy GrahamTE · Heavy rotation71%64 snaps
16Jake KumerowWR · Heavy rotation63%57 snaps
19Equanimeous St. BrownWR · Rotational43%39 snaps
85Robert TonyanTE · Situational17%15 snaps
84Lance KendricksTE · Situational17%15 snaps
89Marcedes LewisTE · Situational11%10 snaps
45Danny VitaleRB · Situational9%8 snaps
65Lane TaylorG · Situational8%7 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Adam PankeyGKendall DonnersonLBKenny ClarkNTNico SiragusaOGTim BoyleQBDeShone KizerQBJason SpriggsTAllen LazardWRRandall CobbWR
New York Jets
53 dressed · 9 never used
79Brent QvaleT · Every snap100%60 snaps
67Brian WintersG · Every snap100%60 snaps
78Jonotthan HarrisonC · Every snap100%60 snaps
68Kelvin BeachumT · Every snap100%60 snaps
61Spencer LongC · Every snap100%60 snaps
14Sam DarnoldQB · Every snap100%60 snaps
11Robby AndersonWR · Full-time93%56 snaps
25Elijah McGuireRB · Full-time85%51 snaps
89Chris HerndonTE · Heavy rotation65%39 snaps
10Jermaine KearseWR · Heavy rotation57%34 snaps
19Andre RobertsWR · Rotational40%24 snaps
18Deontay BurnettWR · Rotational37%22 snaps
40Trenton CannonRB · Rotational30%18 snaps
83Eric TomlinsonTE · Rotational28%17 snaps
86Jordan LeggettTE · Rotational27%16 snaps
70Dakota DozierG · Situational23%14 snaps
17Charone PeakeWR · Situational15%9 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Jeremy ClarkCBDerrick JonesCBFoley FatukasiDTKevin Pierre-LouisILBEmmanuel LamurOLBEric SmithOTJosh McCownQBDavis WebbQBQuincy EnunwaWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
A.Rodgers pass+39% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(7:54) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling [46-N.Hewitt]. PENALTY on NYJ-22-T.Johnson, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced at GB 40 - No Play.
OT 7:54 · Packers · 3rd & 10 at GB 40 · gained nothing · +3.24 EP · +38.7% win probability
193 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 209 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 209 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
14 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 94 yards from the GB 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
209 of 209 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
209
EPA per play
+0.21
Success rate
51%
Yards
912
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR68+0.3175%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25+0.1572%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.7745%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.0960%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.6686%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.3880%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Packers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Jets0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Packers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
209 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
209 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
No good8 plays, from the Jets 32 to the Packers 18
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 35 to the Jets 46
Packers0Jets6
Packers0Jets7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Jets 17 to the Packers 4
The period ended6 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 45
2nd quarter55 plays
Punt2 plays
Packers0Jets13
Packers0Jets14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Jets 24 to the Packers 33
Packers6Jets14
Packers7Jets14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Packers 10 to the Jets 47
Packers7Jets20
Packers7Jets21
Touchdown3 plays
Packers13Jets21
Packers14Jets21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 35 to the Jets 7
Punt5 plays
Packers17Jets21
Field goal13 plays, from the Packers 39 to the Jets 24
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Packers20Jets21
Field goal13 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Jets 11
Packers20Jets27
Packers20Jets28
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Packers 5
Fumble lost1 play
Packers20Jets34
Packers20Jets35
Touchdown4 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Jets 45
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter68 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Jets 26 to the Jets 28
Packers23Jets35
Field goal7 plays, from the Packers 39 to the Jets 20
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 42
Packers29Jets35
Packers30Jets35
Touchdown12 plays, from the Packers 6 to the Jets 1
Punt13 plays, from the Jets 22 to midfield
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Packers36Jets35
Packers38Jets35
Touchdown15 plays, from the Packers 17 to the Jets 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Packers38Jets38
Field goal8 plays, from the Packers 38 to the Packers 15
The period ended3 plays
Overtime14 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Packers44Jets38
Touchdown13 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Jets 6
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Packers -3
Closing total
47.5
Packers moneyline
-141
Jets moneyline
+128
Packers closed -3 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 82 — over by 34.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 41°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
Packers 7 days · Jets 8 days
Coaches
Joe Philbin vs Todd Bowles
3rd · 4:21
GB +13% win prob
2-J.Myers kicks 67 yards from NYJ 35 to GB -2. 82-J.Moore to GB 16 for 18 yards (52-A.Wint). FUMBLES (52-A.Wint), RECOVERED by NYJ-30-R.Robinson at GB 18. 30-R.Robinson to GB 18 for no gain (45-D.Vitale).
4th · 0:26GB +13% win prob(:26) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 11-R.Anderson.
Packerscategory by categoryJets
Packers0
Jets6
