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2018 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 23, 2018 · MetLife Stadium

Green Bay PackersWinner

44

New York Jets

38

GB -3 ✓O 47.5 ✓

Green Bay Packers 44–38. Biggest swing: OT 7:54, NYJ +39% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3End Q4NYJ ↑GB ↓
OT · 7:54GB — NYJ GB ball · 3rd & 10NYJ 54%

(7:54) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling [46-N.Hewitt]. PENALTY on NYJ-22-T.Johnson, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced at GB 40 - No Play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. OT · 7:54NYJ +39% win prob(7:54) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling [46-N.Hewitt]. PENALTY on NYJ-22-T.Johnson, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced at GB 40 - No Play.
  2. Q4 · 1:12NYJ +19% win prob2-M.Crosby kicks 54 yards from GB 35 to NYJ 11. 19-A.Roberts pushed ob at GB 38 for 51 yards (54-J.Crawford).
  3. Q4 · 2:25NYJ +18% win prob(2:25) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Williams to NYJ 24 for 26 yards (51-B.Copeland).
  4. Q4 · 1:55NYJ +17% win prob(1:55) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles left end to NYJ 1 for 23 yards (33-J.Adams).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPackersJets
Offensive plays7957
Total yards543 (edge)370
Yards per play6.9 (edge)6.5
Expected points added / play0.34 (edge)0.29
Success rate57% (edge)54%
Dropback rate78%67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.320.52 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.44 (edge)-0.17
Third downs5/12 (edge)3/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)10 (edge)6
First downs gained on snaps29 (edge)22
Sacks taken42 (edge)
Turnovers10 (edge)

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs 0.29.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

37/55, 442 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

15.9 expected points added · +4.0% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Sam DarnoldQB

24/35, 341 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

20.1 expected points added · +10.1% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Jamaal WilliamsRB

15 att, 95 yds, 1 TD

3.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Elijah McGuireRB

14 att, 35 yds, 1 TD

-4.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Robbie ChosenWR

9/13 for 140 yds, 1 TD

38% of team targets · 9.7 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Equanimeous St. BrownWR

5/5 for 94 yds, 0 TD

9% of team targets · 8.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1NYJNYJ 328403:41Turnover on downs
2GBGB 356132:25Punt
3NYJNYJ 1713836:39Touchdown
4GBGB 257103:01Punt
5NYJNYJ 249765:12Touchdown
6GBGB 108953:56Touchdown
7NYJ—200:12Defensive touchdown
8GBGB 358623:21Touchdown
9NYJNYJ 31500:39Punt
10GBGB 399320:52Turnover on downs
11NYJ—100:02End of half
12GBGB 2512696:43Turnover on downs
13NYJNYJ 259753:56Touchdown
14GB—100:07Fumble
15NYJGB 183281:24Touchdown
16GBGB 257402:32Punt
17NYJNYJ 214-11:07Punt
18GBGB 397412:26Turnover on downs
19NYJNYJ 256322:11Punt
20GBGB 69513:02Touchdown
21NYJNYJ 229143:20Punt
22GBGB 1712852:00Touchdown
23NYJGB 387230:55Turnover on downs
24GBGB 25200:17Turnover on downs
25GBGB 259453:37Touchdown

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 95 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aaron Rodgers37/5544220415.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jamaal Williams15956.313.9
Aaron Rodgers5326.427.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Equanimeous St. Brown559409%8.8
Marquez Valdes-Scantling5975017%3.3
Davante Adams111871134%0.9
Jake Kumerow336816%6.6
Jamaal Williams6961017%0.5
Jimmy Graham343408%1.3
Lance Kendricks222604%1.7
Robert Tonyan111102%2.6
Dan Vitale12204%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Josh Jones660.001
Blake Martinez611.000
Tony Brown600.001
Dean Lowry130.000
Tyler Lancaster220.000
Jaire Alexander310.000
Bashaud Breeland300.000
Natrell Jamerson210.000
Antonio Morrison200.000
Kyler Fackrell111.000

New York Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Sam Darnold24/3534130220.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Elijah McGuire14352.51-4.2
Sam Darnold341.30-0.2
Trenton Cannon242.00-1.0
Rontez Miles144.001.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Robbie Chosen913140138%9.7
Christopher Herndon6782121%7.6
Jermaine Kearse4455012%4.1
Elijah McGuire3550115%4.1
Jordan Leggett11903%0.9
Trenton Cannon12506%-0.3
Deontay Burnett02006%-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Neville Hewitt631.000
Jamal Adams720.000
Avery Williamson520.002
Buster Skrine520.001
Trumaine Johnson420.000
Morris Claiborne320.000
Henry Anderson311.001
Darryl Roberts120.000
Brandon Copeland210.000
Leonard Williams201.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
GB -3
Closing total
47.5
GB moneyline
-141
NYJ moneyline
+128

Packers closed -3 and covered, winning by 6.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 82 — over by 34.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
43°F, wind 8 mph
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
GB 7 days · NYJ 8 days
Coaches
Joe Philbin vs Todd Bowles