2018 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 23, 2018 · Lincoln Financial Field

Houston Texans

Philadelphia EaglesWinner

PHI -1 ✓O 47 ✓Eagles closed -1 and covered, winning by 2.

Philadelphia Eagles 32–30 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, PHI +30% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:03HOU — PHI PHI ball · 3rd & 8PHI 70%

(:03) 4-J.Elliott 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:03PHI +30% win prob(:03) 4-J.Elliott 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.
Q4 · 2:11PHI +27% win prob(2:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 17-V.Smith for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
Q3 · 2:32PHI +22% win prob(2:32) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep middle to 13-N.Agholor for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 1:29PHI +22% win prob(1:29) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep right to 86-Z.Ertz ran ob at HOU 35 for 20 yards.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Eagles
Offensive plays	63	73
Total yards	371	519 (edge)
Yards per play	5.9	7.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.14 (edge)	0.13
Success rate	46% (edge)	44%
Dropback rate	79%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.24	0.36 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.27 (edge)	-0.39
Third downs	3/10	9/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	21	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PHI

Nick FolesQB

35/49, 471 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

18.5 expected points added · +7.1% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

29/40, 339 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.9 expected points added · +11.4% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

8 att, 49 yds, 2 TD

5.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Darren SprolesRB

9 att, 32 yds, 0 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PHI

Nelson AgholorWR

5/7 for 116 yds, 1 TD

14% of team targets · 7.4 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

Zach ErtzTE

12/16 for 110 yds, 2 TD

33% of team targets · 5.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 33	5	7	1:24	Punt
2	PHI	PHI 23	14	77	7:04	Touchdown
3	HOU	HOU 25	13	68	6:40	Turnover on downs
4	PHI	PHI 29	5	11	1:57	Punt
5	HOU	HOU 25	4	9	1:42	Punt
6	PHI	PHI 10	2	-5	0:46	Fumble
7	HOU	PHI 5	2	5	0:04	Touchdown
8	PHI	PHI 25	16	84	7:15	Touchdown
9	HOU	HOU 20	10	50	1:51	Touchdown
10	PHI	PHI 25	8	47	1:17	End of half
11	PHI	PHI 21	7	16	3:39	Interception
12	HOU	PHI 46	4	5	1:55	Punt
13	PHI	PHI 12	7	69	3:55	Turnover on downs
14	HOU	HOU 29	7	26	2:59	Punt
15	PHI	PHI 17	2	83	0:14	Touchdown
16	HOU	HOU 29	8	28	3:35	Fumble
17	PHI	HOU 44	6	44	3:22	Touchdown
18	HOU	HOU 23	10	53	3:23	Turnover on downs
19	PHI	PHI 24	3	29	1:37	Fumble
20	HOU	HOU 45	6	45	0:40	Touchdown
21	PHI	PHI 45	5	7	0:35	Punt
22	HOU	HOU 20	9	75	2:02	Touchdown
23	PHI	PHI 11	12	57	2:04	Turnover on downs

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 84 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	29/40	339	2	0	4	7.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Deshaun Watson	8	49	6.1	2	5.4
Alfred Blue	4	14	3.5	0	0.4
D'Onta Foreman	7	-1	-0.1	0	-4.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeAndre Hopkins	9	12	104	0	30%	7.1
DeAndre Carter	6	7	61	0	18%	1.8
Demaryius Thomas	3	5	37	0	13%	0.5
Vyncint Smith	1	1	35	1	3%	4.9
Jordan Akins	2	3	33	0	8%	2.7
D'Onta Foreman	2	2	28	1	5%	2.8
Alfred Blue	4	5	26	0	13%	-3.7
Ryan Griffin	2	4	15	0	10%	1.2
Jordan Thomas	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Zach Cunningham	7	5	0.0	0	0
Jadeveon Clowney	6	3	1.0	0	1
Justin Reid	7	0	0.0	0	0
Tyrann Mathieu	3	2	0.0	0	1
Aaron Colvin	3	1	0.0	0	0
Benardrick McKinney	2	2	0.0	1	2
Deante Burton	4	0	0.0	0	0
J.J. Watt	3	0	0.0	0	0
Andre Hal	1	2	0.0	0	0
Christian Covington	1	1	0.0	0	0

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nick Foles	35/49	471	4	1	1	18.5
Nate Sudfeld	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Darren Sproles	9	32	3.6	-1.8
Josh Adams	11	21	1.9	-8.8
Wendell Smallwood	1	3	3.0	-0.2
Nick Foles	1	1	1.0	2.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Nelson Agholor	5	7	116	1	14%	7.4
Zach Ertz	12	16	110	2	33%	5.3
Alshon Jeffery	3	5	82	0	10%	4.1
Darren Sproles	3	6	76	1	12%	6.9
Dallas Goedert	3	3	30	0	6%	3.4
Wendell Smallwood	4	4	24	0	8%	0.1
Jordan Matthews	2	3	13	0	6%	-0.6
Golden Tate	2	3	13	0	6%	-1.5
Richard Rodgers	1	1	7	0	2%	0.5
Josh Adams	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Rasul Douglas	8	1	0.0	0
Nigel Bradham	3	3	0.0	0
Jordan Hicks	3	2	0.0	1
Malcolm Jenkins	4	1	0.0	0
Avonte Maddox	3	1	0.5	1
Corey Graham	4	0	0.0	0
Cre'von LeBlanc	2	1	0.0	0
Tre Sullivan	3	0	0.0	0
Daeshon Hall	1	1	0.5	0
Nathan Gerry	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PHI -1
Closing total: 47
HOU moneyline: +111
PHI moneyline: -123

Eagles closed -1 and covered, winning by 2.

Total closed 47; the game landed 62 — over by 15.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 44°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: John Parry
Rest: HOU 8 days · PHI 7 days
Coaches: Bill O'Brien vs Doug Pederson