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2018 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 23, 2018 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
TexansHouston30
BY 2final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia32
Houston Texans 30 at Philadelphia Eagles 32. Final.
Eagles -1 ✓O 47 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 16
Philadelphia Eagles 32, Texans 30 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:03, 3rd and 8, on Jake Elliott — 30.4 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Eagles closed -1 and covered, winning by 2.
Philadelphia Eagles 32–30 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, Eagles +30.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:03 · 3rd and 8
Jake Elliott
Eagles
(:03) 4-J.Elliott 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.
30.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Nelson AgholorEaglesQ3 2:32(2:32) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep middle to 13-N.Agholor for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
22.1pts
Vyncint SmithTexansQ4 2:11(2:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 17-V.Smith for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
27.2pts
What separated them
Third down
Eagles won this one — 9 of 16 on third down, against Texans at 3 of 10 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Texans owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Eagles at 3 giveaways.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Texans owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Eagles at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Eagles won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Texans at 6 chunk plays.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Texans183 of 195 plays carry both curves
(:03) 4-J.Elliott 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.
Swing +30.4 for EaglesExpected points +0.26 for EaglesThe model had Texans 2 points higher than the market did.play 194
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:03PHI +30% win prob(:03) 4-J.Elliott 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.
4th · 2:11PHI +27% win prob(2:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 17-V.Smith for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
3rd · 2:32PHI +22% win prob(2:32) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep middle to 13-N.Agholor for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:29PHI +22% win prob(1:29) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep right to 86-Z.Ertz ran ob at HOU 35 for 20 yards.
1st · 6:42PHI +15% win prob(6:42) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 43-D.Sproles for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 9:26PHI +14% win prob(9:26) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep middle to 17-A.Jeffery pushed ob at HOU 36 for 52 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jake Elliott's 35-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st6:42Darren Sproles·37-yd TD catch37-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Folesfrom Nick Foles+70–7
2nd14:55Ka'imi Fairbairn·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder T.Daniel · snap J.Weeks+33–7
2nd10:27Deshaun Watson·5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide right+69–7
2nd3:11Zach Ertz·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Folesfrom Nick Foles · two-point no good+69–13
4th0:03Jake Elliott·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.LovatoLead never changed again+330–32
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryEagles
Texans3–6Eagles
371Total yards519
5.9Yards per play7.1
46%Success rate44%
30%Third-down rate56%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays9
21First downs23
4Sacks taken1
1Turnovers3
The read
Eagles ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.14Texans: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.13Eagles: +0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.24Texans: +0.24 expected points added per play
+0.36Eagles: +0.36 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.27Texans: −0.27 expected points added per play
−0.39Eagles: −0.39 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 63 snaps at a 79% dropback rate against Eagles’s 73 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Texans 5, Eagles 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
1 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
high through week 16Against their seasonTendencies
HOU's early-down pass rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 69.6% in week 3 — the highest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points. · +1.9σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 16 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −5.7 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (−1.20× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Eagles16.0%
right on their number · −2.4 vs their 18.4%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteHOU's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 75.0%, 22.4 points above their season mean of 52.6% and 1.9 times their own 11.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Jake Elliott+33% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) 4-J.Elliott 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.
Q4 0:03 · Eagles · 3rd & 8 at HOU 17 · gained nothing · +0.26 EP · +32.9% win probability
181 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 195 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 195 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 83 yards from the PHI 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
195 of 195 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
195
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
41%
Yards
890
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.0377%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.1266%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR31+0.1071%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.3953%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.3186%
snapsepapass rate
195 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
195 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 33 to the Texans 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Texans0Eagles6
Texans0Eagles7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Eagles 23 to the Texans 37
The period ended13 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Eagles 7
2nd quarter61 plays
Texans3Eagles7
Field goal2 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 29 to the Eagles 35
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 34
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Eagles 10 to the Eagles 14
Texans9Eagles7
Touchdown2 plays
Texans9Eagles13
Touchdown20 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Texans 1
Texans15Eagles13
Texans16Eagles13
Touchdown12 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Eagles 6
The period ended12 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Texans 44
3rd quarter36 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Eagles 21 to the Eagles 44
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 46 to the Eagles 41
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Texans16Eagles16
Field goal8 plays, from the Eagles 12 to the Texans 21
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 29 to midfield
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Texans16Eagles22
Texans16Eagles23
Touchdown2 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Texans 29 to the Eagles 46
4th quarter65 plays
Fumble lost4 plays
Texans16Eagles29
Touchdown9 plays, from the Texans 44 to the Texans 21
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Texans 23 to the Eagles 21
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Eagles 24 to the Texans 49
Texans22Eagles29
Texans23Eagles29
Touchdown7 plays, from the Texans 45 to the Eagles 20
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 45 to the Texans 48
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw7.0 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Texans29Eagles29
Texans30Eagles29
Touchdown9 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Eagles 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defenders
Texans30Eagles32
Field goal15 plays, from the Eagles 11 to the Texans 17
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Eagles -1
Closing total
47
Texans moneyline
+111
Eagles moneyline
-123
Eagles closed -1 and covered, winning by 2.
Total closed 47; the game landed 62 — over by 15.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 43°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
John Parry
Rest
Texans 8 days · Eagles 7 days
Coaches
Bill O'Brien vs Doug Pederson
2nd · 10:35
HOU +14% win prob
(10:35) 9-N.Foles sacked at PHI 5 for -9 yards (90-J.Clowney). FUMBLES (90-J.Clowney) [90-J.Clowney], RECOVERED by HOU-90-J.Clowney at PHI 5. 90-J.Clowney to PHI 5 for no gain (82-R.Rodgers).
4th · 1:20PHI +13% win prob(1:20) (Shotgun) 43-D.Sproles right end to HOU 19 for 16 yards (41-Z.Cunningham; 29-A.Hal).
Texanscategory by categoryEagles
Texans0
Eagles6
