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2018 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 23, 2018 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
JaguarsJacksonville17
BY 10final margin
DolphinsMiami7
Jacksonville Jaguars 17 at Miami Dolphins 7. Final.
Dolphins -3 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 16
Jacksonville Jaguars 17, Dolphins 7 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 9:43, 1st and 15, on Telvin Smith — 27.5 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
U 39.5 ✓
Dolphins closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Jacksonville Jaguars 17–7. Biggest swing: Q4 9:43, Jaguars +27.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 9:43 · 1st and 15
Telvin Smith
Jaguars
(9:43) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right intended for 27-K.Ballage INTERCEPTED by 50-Tel.Smith [93-C.Campbell] at MIA 33. 50-Tel.Smith for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on JAX-50-Tel.Smith, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. Penalty on JAX-91-Y.Ngakoue, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, declined.
27.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Cody KesslerDolphinsQ2 7:46(7:46) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler sacked at JAX 27 for -7 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by MIA-50-A.Branch at JAX 33. 50-A.Branch to JAX 33 for no gain (77-P.Omameh).
17.2pts
Brandon BoldenJaguarsQ3 8:31(8:31) 38-B.Bolden up the middle to MIA 19 for -3 yards (93-C.Campbell). Jacksonville challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 38-B.Bolden up the middle to MIA 17 for -5 yards (93-C.Campbell). FUMBLES (93-C.Campbell), RECOVERED by JAX-93-C.Campbell at MIA 17.
16.7pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Jaguars won this one — +0.02 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.58 expected points per carry.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Jaguars won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Dolphins at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Jaguars won this one — -0.03 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at -0.38 expected points per snap.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jaguars won this one — 6 of 13 on third down, against Dolphins at 2 of 9 on third down.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Jaguars143 of 153 plays carry both curves
(9:43) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right intended for 27-K.Ballage INTERCEPTED by 50-Tel.Smith [93-C.Campbell] at MIA 33. 50-Tel.Smith for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on JAX-50-Tel.Smith, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced betw
Swing −27.5 for DolphinsExpected points −8.39 for DolphinsModel and market agree here.play 129
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 9:43JAX +28% win prob(9:43) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right intended for 27-K.Ballage INTERCEPTED by 50-Tel.Smith [93-C.Campbell] at MIA 33. 50-Tel.Smith for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on JAX-50-Tel.Smith, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. Penalty on JAX-91-Y.Ngakoue, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, declined.
2nd · 7:46JAX +17% win prob(7:46) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler sacked at JAX 27 for -7 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by MIA-50-A.Branch at JAX 33. 50-A.Branch to JAX 33 for no gain (77-P.Omameh).
3rd · 8:31JAX +17% win prob(8:31) 38-B.Bolden up the middle to MIA 19 for -3 yards (93-C.Campbell). Jacksonville challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 38-B.Bolden up the middle to MIA 17 for -5 yards (93-C.Campbell). FUMBLES (93-C.Campbell), RECOVERED by JAX-93-C.Campbell at MIA 17.
4th · 12:42MIA +14% win prob(12:42) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep left to 10-D.Moncrief to MIA 24 for 19 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick). PENALTY on MIA-29-M.Fitzpatrick, Face Mask (15 Yards), 12 yards, enforced at MIA 24.
2nd · 6:11JAX +13% win prob(6:11) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kai Forbath's 26-yard field goal with 10:59 left in the 4th put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st9:53Brandon Bolden·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+70–7
Jaguars ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.58 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.03Jaguars: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.38Dolphins: −0.38 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.08Jaguars: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.26Dolphins: −0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.02Jaguars: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.58Dolphins: −0.58 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 60 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 43 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 3, Dolphins 2.
NoteJaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.38.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
1 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIA's sack or hit rate, 36.7%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 10.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 18.6% in week 13.
2.9 times their own weekly swing above their number.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points. · +2.9σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 28 pts
leaned — got home · +9.9 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+1.49× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Dolphins36.7%
off script — got home · +23.2 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+2.92× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 36.7%, 23.2 points above their season mean of 13.5% and 2.9 times their own 8.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
53 dressed · 7 never used
69Tyler ShatleyC · Every snap100%67 snaps
60A.J. CannG · Every snap100%67 snaps
77Patrick OmamehG · Every snap100%67 snaps
75Ereck FlowersT · Every snap100%67 snaps
10Donte MoncriefWR · Heavy rotation79%53 snaps
12Dede WestbrookWR · Heavy rotation78%52 snaps
27Leonard FournetteRB · Heavy rotation73%49 snaps
6Cody KesslerQB · Heavy rotation66%44 snaps
64Chris ReedG · Heavy rotation63%42 snaps
80James O'ShaughnessyTE · Heavy rotation63%42 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Tannehill pass−27% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(9:43) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right intended for 27-K.Ballage INTERCEPTED by 50-Tel.Smith [93-C.Campbell] at MIA 33. 50-Tel.Smith for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on JAX-50-Tel.Smith, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. Penalty on JAX-91-Y.Ngakoue, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, declined.
Q4 9:43 · Dolphins · 1st & 15 at MIA 32 · gained nothing · -8.39 EP · −27.4% win probability
141 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 153 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
3 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 78 yards from the MIA 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
153 of 153 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
153
EPA per play
-0.25
Success rate
37%
Yards
427
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.1368%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21-0.3062%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.6554%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.7675%
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.3930%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.7117%
Dolphins3 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR4——
Jaguars2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Jaguars2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
153 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
153 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Jaguars0Dolphins6
Jaguars0Dolphins7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Dolphins 22 to the Jaguars 4
Jaguars6Dolphins7
Jaguars7Dolphins7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Dolphins 1
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 24 to the Dolphins 29
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 39 to the Dolphins 40
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 11 to the Dolphins 33
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Jaguars 7 to the Jaguars 34
No good4 plays, from the Jaguars 33 to the Jaguars 28
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 37 to the Dolphins 46
Punt11 plays, from the Dolphins 13 to the Dolphins 30
No good1 play
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Dolphins 39
Offense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Dolphins 11 to the Dolphins 22
Punt6 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 17 to the Dolphins 30
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 34 to the Jaguars 38
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 28 to the Dolphins 31
The period ended3 plays, from the Jaguars 41 to the Dolphins 46
4th quarter39 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Jaguars10Dolphins7
Field goal10 plays, from the Jaguars 47 to the Dolphins 8
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
Jaguars16Dolphins7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 37
Jaguars17Dolphins7
Punt9 plays, from the Dolphins 23 to the Jaguars 47
The period ended14 plays, from the Jaguars 13 to the Dolphins 25
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Jaguarscategory by categoryDolphins
Jaguars0
Dolphins6
