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2018 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 23, 2018 · Hard Rock Stadium

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

17

Miami Dolphins

7

MIA -3 upsetU 39.5 ✓

Jacksonville Jaguars 17–7. Biggest swing: Q4 9:43, JAX +28% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3MIA ↑JAX ↓
Q4 · 9:43JAX — MIA MIA ball · 1st & 15JAX 60%

(9:43) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right intended for 27-K.Ballage INTERCEPTED by 50-Tel.Smith [93-C.Campbell] at MIA 33. 50-Tel.Smith for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on JAX-50-Tel.Smith, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced betw

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 9:43JAX +28% win prob(9:43) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right intended for 27-K.Ballage INTERCEPTED by 50-Tel.Smith [93-C.Campbell] at MIA 33. 50-Tel.Smith for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on JAX-50-Tel.Smith, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. Penalty on JAX-91-Y.Ngakoue, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, declined.
  2. Q2 · 7:46JAX +17% win prob(7:46) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler sacked at JAX 27 for -7 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by MIA-50-A.Branch at JAX 33. 50-A.Branch to JAX 33 for no gain (77-P.Omameh).
  3. Q3 · 8:31JAX +17% win prob(8:31) 38-B.Bolden up the middle to MIA 19 for -3 yards (93-C.Campbell). Jacksonville challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 38-B.Bolden up the middle to MIA 17 for -5 yards (93-C.Campbell). FUMBLES (93-C.Campbell), RECOVERED by JAX-93-C.Campbell at MIA 17.
  4. Q4 · 12:42MIA +14% win prob(12:42) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep left to 10-D.Moncrief to MIA 24 for 19 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick). PENALTY on MIA-29-M.Fitzpatrick, Face Mask (15 Yards), 12 yards, enforced at MIA 24.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJaguarsDolphins
Offensive plays6043
Total yards246 (edge)183
Yards per play4.14.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.03 (edge)-0.38
Success rate50% (edge)37%
Dropback rate50%63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.08 (edge)-0.26
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.02 (edge)-0.58
Third downs6/13 (edge)2/9
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)44
First downs gained on snaps16 (edge)10
Sacks taken63 (edge)
Turnovers1 (edge)2

Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.38.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Ryan TannehillQB

15/22, 146 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-8.3 expected points added · -0.1% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Cody KesslerQB

12/17, 106 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-2.8 expected points added · +8.1% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Carlos HydeRB

8 att, 47 yds, 0 TD

-0.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Leonard FournetteRB

18 att, 43 yds, 1 TD

-3.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Dede WestbrookWR

7/8 for 45 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · 3.3 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Donte MoncriefWR

4/4 for 43 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 5.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MIAMIA 2210835:11Touchdown
2JAXJAX 2515677:20Touchdown
3MIAMIA 24551:43Punt
4JAXJAX 41642:35Punt
5MIAMIA 114172:58Punt
6JAXJAX 75262:34Fumble
7MIAJAX 33451:33Turnover on downs
8JAXJAX 377113:11Punt
9MIAMIA 137222:51Punt
10JAXMIA 38100:04Turnover on downs
11JAXJAX 2510415:17Punt
12MIAMIA 11361:15Fumble
13JAXMIA 174-162:16Punt
14MIAMIA 17662:24Punt
15JAXJAX 344-11:28Punt
16MIAMIA 28431:38Punt
17JAXJAX 4110594:46Turnover on downs
18MIAMIA 254121:22Defensive touchdown
19MIAMIA 238244:20Punt
20JAXJAX 1310555:14End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 83 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Cody Kessler12/17106005-2.8
Blake Bortles5/6390010.7
Dede Westbrook0/10000-0.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Carlos Hyde8475.90-0.3
Leonard Fournette18432.41-3.2
Blake Bortles4256.300.5
Dede Westbrook199.000.8
Cody Kessler122.000.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Dede Westbrook7845035%3.3
Donte Moncrief4443017%5.1
Leonard Fournette3528022%1.8
Rashad Greene222209%3.5
Tommy Bohanon11704%0.2
Blake Bell01004%-0.8
Keelan Cole02009%-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Myles Jack610.000
Telvin Smith510.011
A.J. Bouye300.000
Jarrod Wilson300.000
Jalen Ramsey300.000
Calais Campbell301.000
Tashaun Gipson300.000
Abry Jones210.000
Yannick Ngakoue201.000
Nick DeLuca110.000

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Ryan Tannehill15/22146113-8.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kenyan Drake6233.80-1.2
Ryan Tannehill3227.300.7
Kalen Ballage4102.50-0.8
Brandon Bolden492.30-6.0
Danny Amendola1-2-2.00-0.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Danny Amendola3340014%2.8
Kalen Ballage2439019%-6.8
Kenyan Drake4531024%1.6
DeVante Parker2313014%-0.7
Durham Smythe129010%0.1
Mike Gesicki11505%0.1
Kenny Stills125010%-1.5
Brandon Bolden11415%1.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Raekwon McMillan640.000
Bobby McCain600.000
Reshad Jones510.000
Davon Godchaux320.000
Minkah Fitzpatrick500.000
Jerome Baker400.000
Torry McTyer210.000
Robert Quinn211.000
Akeem Spence210.000
Mike Hull200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIA -3
Closing total
39.5
JAX moneyline
+139
MIA moneyline
-153

Dolphins closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 39.5; the game landed 24 — under by 15.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
73°F, wind 9 mph
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
JAX 7 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches
Doug Marrone vs Adam Gase