2018 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 23, 2018 · CenturyLink Field

Kansas City Chiefs

Seattle SeahawksWinner

KC -1 upsetO 54 ✓Chiefs closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Seattle Seahawks 38–31. Biggest swing: Q4 3:04, SEA +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 3:04KC — SEA SEA ball · 2nd & 12SEA 72%

(3:04) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett ran ob at KC 21 for 45 yards (35-C.Ward).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 3:04SEA +16% win prob(3:04) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett ran ob at KC 21 for 45 yards (35-C.Ward).
Q2 · 8:48KC +16% win prob(8:48) (Shotgun) 26-Dam. Williams left end to KC 24 for -6 yards (95-D.Jordan). FUMBLES (95-D.Jordan), RECOVERED by SEA-90-J.Reed at KC 23. 90-J.Reed to KC 21 for 2 yards (61-M.Morse).
Q3 · 0:51SEA +14% win prob(:51) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 89-D.Baldwin for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 2:25SEA +14% win prob(2:25) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 84-E.Dickson to KC 29 for 18 yards (20-S.Nelson).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Seahawks
Offensive plays	61	71
Total yards	421	468 (edge)
Yards per play	6.9 (edge)	6.6
Expected points added / play	0.19	0.27 (edge)
Success rate	54% (edge)	48%
Dropback rate	72%	51%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.22	0.50 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.11 (edge)	0.02
Third downs	5/12	7/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	11 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	24	26 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs 0.19.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

23/40, 273 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

7.7 expected points added · -2.7% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

18/29, 271 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

13.0 expected points added · +11.2% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Chris CarsonRB

27 att, 116 yds, 2 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Damien WilliamsRB

13 att, 103 yds, 0 TD

-0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

Doug BaldwinWR

7/12 for 126 yds, 1 TD

44% of team targets · 8.5 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

Tyler LockettWR

4/5 for 99 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	KC	KC 25	5	8	0:59	Punt
2	SEA	SEA 22	12	83	5:06	Touchdown
3	KC	KC 25	9	39	2:21	Turnover on downs
4	SEA	SEA 25	11	31	4:47	Turnover on downs
5	KC	KC 26	11	79	5:26	Touchdown
6	SEA	SEA 25	5	9	1:38	Punt
7	KC	KC 20	2	8	1:04	Fumble
8	SEA	KC 21	7	18	3:13	Touchdown
9	KC	KC 25	5	9	2:24	Punt
10	SEA	SEA 9	7	37	2:29	Punt
11	KC	KC 13	3	40	0:23	Fumble
12	SEA	SEA 22	1	0	0:10	End of half
13	SEA	SEA 25	13	60	5:33	Turnover on downs
14	KC	KC 17	9	83	4:09	Touchdown
15	SEA	SEA 25	10	80	4:33	Touchdown
16	KC	KC 40	5	0	0:23	Punt
17	SEA	SEA 31	4	7	1:09	Punt
18	KC	KC 30	10	65	3:45	Turnover on downs
19	SEA	SEA 30	8	68	2:57	Touchdown
20	KC	KC 28	11	74	2:55	Touchdown
21	SEA	SEA 25	10	75	2:07	Touchdown
22	KC	SEA 31	6	16	1:09	Turnover on downs
23	SEA	50	4	0	1:20	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 83 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	23/40	273	3	0	1	7.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Damien Williams	13	103	7.9	-0.5
Patrick Mahomes	3	33	11.0	4.0
Tyreek Hill	2	17	8.5	1.3
Charcandrick West	1	1	1.0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyreek Hill	4	9	74	0	23%	1.1
Chris Conley	3	5	54	0	13%	2.5
Travis Kelce	5	9	54	0	23%	1.9
Damien Williams	7	7	37	1	18%	1.7
Charcandrick West	2	3	37	1	8%	3.4
Demarcus Robinson	2	3	17	1	8%	0.9
Kelvin Benjamin	0	2	0	0	5%	-1.6
Demetrius Harris	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Anthony Hitchens	4	7	0.0	0
Charvarius Ward	7	1	0.0	1
Reggie Ragland	1	6	0.0	0
Daniel Sorensen	2	4	0.0	0
Dee Ford	2	4	0.5	0
Steven Nelson	5	1	0.0	0
Xavier Williams	1	4	0.0	0
Eric Berry	4	1	0.0	0
Derrick Nnadi	2	2	0.0	0
Chris Jones	2	1	1.5	0

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	18/29	271	3	0	3	13.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chris Carson	27	116	4.3	2	0.9
Russell Wilson	8	57	7.1	0	3.2
Mike Davis	7	31	4.4	0	-0.7
J.D. McKissic	1	6	6.0	0	0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Doug Baldwin	7	12	126	1	44%	8.5
Tyler Lockett	4	5	99	0	19%	6.2
Ed Dickson	3	3	19	1	11%	2.2
Nick Vannett	2	2	11	1	7%	2.7
Jaron Brown	1	1	9	0	4%	1.4
David Moore	1	3	7	0	11%	-0.8
Mike Davis	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Bobby Wagner	5	6	0.0	0
Bradley McDougald	4	2	0.0	0
Justin Coleman	2	3	0.0	1
Shaquill Griffin	4	0	0.0	1
Dion Jordan	3	1	1.0	0
Akeem King	2	1	0.0	0
Frank Clark	3	0	0.0	0
Tre Flowers	2	1	0.0	0
J.D. McKissic	1	0	0.0	0
Neiko Thorpe	1	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -1
Closing total: 54
KC moneyline: -117
SEA moneyline: +105

Chiefs closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 54; the game landed 69 — over by 15.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: CenturyLink Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 43°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: KC 10 days · SEA 7 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Pete Carroll