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2018 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 23, 2018 · CenturyLink Field
Final
ChiefsKansas City31
BY 7final margin
SeahawksSeattle38
Kansas City Chiefs 31 at Seattle Seahawks 38. Final.
Chiefs -1 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 16
Seattle Seahawks 38, Chiefs 31 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 3:04, 2nd and 12, on Tyler Lockett — 16.4 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 3:04 · 2nd and 12
Tyler Lockett
Seahawks
(3:04) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett ran ob at KC 21 for 45 yards (35-C.Ward).
O 54 ✓
Chiefs closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Seattle Seahawks 38–31. Biggest swing: Q4 3:04, Seahawks +16.4% win probability on one snap.
16.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetSeahawksQ2 8:48(8:48) (Shotgun) 26-Dam. Williams left end to KC 24 for -6 yards (95-D.Jordan). FUMBLES (95-D.Jordan), RECOVERED by SEA-90-J.Reed at KC 23. 90-J.Reed to KC 21 for 2 yards (61-M.Morse).
16.2pts
Doug BaldwinSeahawksQ3 0:51(:51) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 89-D.Baldwin for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — no giveaways, against Chiefs at 2 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Seahawks won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Chiefs at 8 chunk plays.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.50 expected points per dropback, against Chiefs at +0.22 expected points per dropback.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Seahawks won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against Chiefs at 5 of 12 on third down.
Doug BaldwinSeahawksRole12 targets, 44% of the throws — 7 for 126, 1 TD.
Note
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Chiefs181 of 193 plays carry both curves
(3:04) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett ran ob at KC 21 for 45 yards (35-C.Ward).
Swing +16.4 for SeahawksExpected points +3.33 for SeahawksThe model had Seahawks 5 points higher than the market did.play 175
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 3:04SEA +16% win prob(3:04) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett ran ob at KC 21 for 45 yards (35-C.Ward).
2nd · 8:48KC +16% win prob(8:48) (Shotgun) 26-Dam. Williams left end to KC 24 for -6 yards (95-D.Jordan). FUMBLES (95-D.Jordan), RECOVERED by SEA-90-J.Reed at KC 23. 90-J.Reed to KC 21 for 2 yards (61-M.Morse).
3rd · 0:51SEA +14% win prob(:51) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 89-D.Baldwin for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 2:25SEA +14% win prob(2:25) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 84-E.Dickson to KC 29 for 18 yards (20-S.Nelson).
4th · 11:42SEA +13% win prob(11:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 10-T.Hill ran ob at SEA 4 for 32 yards (28-J.Coleman).
1st · 1:52KC +12% win prob(1:52) 11-S.Janikowski 36 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Doug Baldwin's 27-yard touchdown catch with 0:51 left in the 3rd put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
4th1:23Harrison Butker·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Winchester+331–38
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categorySeahawks
Chiefs3–6Seahawks
421Total yards468
6.9Yards per play6.6
54%Success rate48%
42%Third-down rate54%
2Red-zone touchdowns4
8Explosive plays11
24First downs26
1Sacks taken3
2Turnovers0
The read
Seahawks ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.19Chiefs: +0.19 expected points added per play
+0.27Seahawks: +0.27 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.22Chiefs: +0.22 expected points added per play
+0.50Seahawks: +0.50 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.11Chiefs: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.02Seahawks: +0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 61 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 71 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 5, Seahawks 7.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs 0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · +7.2 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.95× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Seahawks25.0%
inside their normal wobble · +7.5 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+0.90× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteKC's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 72.3%, 11.0 points above their season mean of 61.3% and 1.5 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Damien Williams−17% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(8:48) (Shotgun) 26-Dam. Williams left end to KC 24 for -6 yards (95-D.Jordan). FUMBLES (95-D.Jordan), RECOVERED by SEA-90-J.Reed at KC 23. 90-J.Reed to KC 21 for 2 yards (61-M.Morse).
Q2 8:48 · Chiefs · 1st & 15 at KC 30 · lost 7 · -5.52 EP · −16.8% win probability
179 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 193 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 193 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 83 yards from the KC 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
193 of 193 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
193
EPA per play
+0.18
Success rate
48%
Yards
885
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.2846%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.1571%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.4164%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.4367%
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.0622%
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
193 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
193 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 33
Chiefs0Seahawks6
Chiefs0Seahawks7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Seahawks 22 to the Chiefs 4
Chiefs3Seahawks7
Field goal9 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Seahawks 36
No good12 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Chiefs 15
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter47 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Chiefs9Seahawks7
Chiefs10Seahawks7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chiefs 41 to the Seahawks 2
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 34
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Chiefs 35
Chiefs10Seahawks13
Chiefs10Seahawks14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chiefs 21 to the Chiefs 1
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 34
Punt10 plays, from the Seahawks 9 to the Chiefs 38
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Chiefs 13 to the Chiefs 30
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
Chiefs10Seahawks17
Field goal15 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Chiefs 10
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.8 seconds
Chiefs16Seahawks17
Chiefs17Seahawks17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chiefs 17 to the Seahawks 25
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Chiefs17Seahawks23
Chiefs17Seahawks24
Touchdown11 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Chiefs 27
Punt5 plays
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter60 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Seahawks 38
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
Chiefs20Seahawks24
Field goal11 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Seahawks 4
Chiefs20Seahawks30
Chiefs20Seahawks31
Touchdown10 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Chiefs 2
Chiefs26Seahawks31
Chiefs28Seahawks31
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chiefs 28 to the Seahawks 11
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Chiefs28Seahawks37
Chiefs28Seahawks38
Touchdown12 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Chiefs 1
Chiefs31Seahawks38
Field goal6 plays, from the Seahawks 31 to the Seahawks 15
The period ended6 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -1
Closing total
54
Chiefs moneyline
-117
Seahawks moneyline
+105
Chiefs closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 54; the game landed 69 — over by 15.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
CenturyLink Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 45°F at kickoff; breezy at 10 mph out of the south; overcast.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Chiefs 10 days · Seahawks 7 days
Coaches
Andy Reid vs Pete Carroll
4th · 2:44
SEA +11% win prob
(2:44) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 89-D.Baldwin to KC 1 for 29 yards (35-C.Ward). Penalty on KC-35-C.Ward, Defensive Holding, declined.
3rd · 10:30SEA +11% win prob(10:30) 11-S.Janikowski 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. PENALTY on KC-24-J.Lucas, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at KC 29 - No Play.
