2018 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 23, 2018 · State Farm Stadium

Los Angeles RamsWinner

Arizona Cardinals

LA -14.5 ✓U 43 ✓DomeRams closed -14.5 and covered, winning by 22.

Los Angeles Rams 31–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:12, LA +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 12:12LA — ARI LA ball · 1st & 10LA 92%

(12:12) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at LA 49 for -11 yards (91-B.Mayowa). FUMBLES (91-B.Mayowa) [91-B.Mayowa], RECOVERED by ARI-20-D.Bucannon at LA 45. 20-D.Bucannon to LA 41 for 4 yards (35-C.Anderson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 12:12LA +14% win prob(12:12) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at LA 49 for -11 yards (91-B.Mayowa). FUMBLES (91-B.Mayowa) [91-B.Mayowa], RECOVERED by ARI-20-D.Bucannon at LA 45. 20-D.Bucannon to LA 41 for 4 yards (35-C.Anderson).
Q1 · 7:51ARI +8% win prob(7:51) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short middle to 11-L.Fitzgerald to LA 18 for 7 yards (43-J.Johnson).
Q1 · 10:23ARI +6% win prob(10:23) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen scrambles left end pushed ob at LA 20 for 15 yards (58-C.Littleton).
Q1 · 6:27ARI +6% win prob(6:27) 12-B.Cooks right end ran ob at LA 48 for 17 yards (33-T.Boston). PENALTY on ARI-33-T.Boston, Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact, 15 yards, enforced at LA 48.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Rams	Cardinals
Offensive plays	65	53
Total yards	463 (edge)	263
Yards per play	7.1 (edge)	5.0
Expected points added / play	0.29 (edge)	-0.12
Success rate	66% (edge)	34%
Dropback rate	42%	74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.16 (edge)	-0.04
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.38 (edge)	-0.34
Third downs	6/9 (edge)	2/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	29 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1	1

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.12.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Jared GoffQB

19/24, 216 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

4.3 expected points added · +13.4% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Josh RosenQB

12/23, 87 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-12.0 expected points added · -16.3% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

C.J. AndersonRB

20 att, 167 yds, 1 TD

10.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

John KellyRB

10 att, 40 yds, 0 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Robert WoodsWR

6/7 for 89 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 7.0 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Trent SherfieldWR

6/6 for 62 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 8.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LA	LA 25	7	20	2:55	Fumble
2	ARI	LA 41	8	38	4:58	Turnover on downs
3	LA	LA 25	9	60	3:08	Touchdown
4	ARI	ARI 25	5	5	1:34	Punt
5	LA	LA 16	12	74	5:29	Touchdown
6	ARI	ARI 25	7	64	2:16	Touchdown
7	LA	LA 25	14	75	7:30	Touchdown
8	ARI	ARI 25	9	24	1:57	Turnover on downs
9	LA	LA 44	3	17	0:13	Turnover on downs
10	ARI	ARI 25	9	30	3:08	Punt
11	LA	LA 11	11	87	6:15	Turnover on downs
12	ARI	ARI 25	5	1	1:36	Defensive touchdown
13	LA	LA 8	8	17	3:39	Punt
14	ARI	ARI 17	10	36	3:48	Punt
15	LA	LA 5	5	95	2:15	Touchdown
16	ARI	ARI 25	5	-3	1:08	Punt
17	LA	LA 49	4	5	2:49	Punt
18	ARI	ARI 7	9	68	2:31	Turnover on downs
19	LA	LA 10	5	13	2:51	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 95 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	19/24	216	1	0	2	4.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
C.J. Anderson	20	167	8.3	1	10.0
John Kelly	10	40	4.0	0	-0.9
Brandin Cooks	3	27	9.0	0	3.3
Gerald Everett	2	16	8.0	0	0.8
Robert Woods	2	15	7.5	1	0.9
Jared Goff	2	6	3.0	1	0.6
Sean Mannion	2	-2	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Robert Woods	6	7	89	1	30%	7.0
Josh Reynolds	2	2	44	0	9%	3.3
Brandin Cooks	3	3	35	0	13%	2.4
Gerald Everett	5	6	28	0	26%	2.0
Tyler Higbee	1	1	16	0	4%	1.3
John Kelly	1	1	9	0	4%	0.9
C.J. Anderson	1	3	-5	0	13%	-2.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Cory Littleton	7	2	0.0	1
Aaron Donald	5	2	3.0	0
Ndamukong Suh	1	4	1.0	2
John Johnson	2	2	0.0	0
Mark Barron	3	0	0.0	1
Lamarcus Joyner	2	0	0.0	0
Ramik Wilson	2	0	0.0	0
Sam Shields	1	1	0.0	0
Aqib Talib	2	0	0.0	2
C.J. Anderson	1	0	0.0	0

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	Sacked	EPA
Josh Rosen	12/23	87	0	4	-12.0
Mike Glennon	5/7	63	0	0	3.7
Larry Fitzgerald	1/1	32	1	0	3.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Josh Rosen	4	49	12.3	3.7
David Johnson	10	35	3.5	-7.1
Chase Edmonds	4	20	5.0	2.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Trent Sherfield	6	6	62	0	19%	8.0
Larry Fitzgerald	6	9	53	0	29%	-1.7
David Johnson	1	5	32	1	16%	-0.9
Jalen Tolliver	1	3	15	0	10%	-0.1
John Phillips	1	1	9	0	3%	0.1
Chad Williams	1	4	7	0	13%	-2.0
Ricky Seals-Jones	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.4
Chase Edmonds	1	2	1	0	6%	-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Haason Reddick	6	3	1.0	0
Tre Boston	8	0	0.0	0
Antoine Bethea	7	0	0.0	1
Deone Bucannon	6	0	0.0	0
Rodney Gunter	2	3	0.0	0
Budda Baker	3	0	0.0	0
Patrick Peterson	3	0	0.0	0
Chandler Jones	2	1	0.0	0
Benson Mayowa	3	0	1.0	1
David Amerson	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -14.5
Closing total: 43
LA moneyline: -679
ARI moneyline: +516

Rams closed -14.5 and covered, winning by 22.

Total closed 43; the game landed 40 — under by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Walt Coleman
Rest: LA 7 days · ARI 7 days
Coaches: Sean McVay vs Steve Wilks

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.