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Minnesota Vikings 27, Lions 9 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 0:02, 3rd and 2, on Kyle Rudolph — 16.6 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:02 · 3rd and 2
Kyle Rudolph
Vikings
(:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 82-K.Rudolph for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Vikings closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 18.
Minnesota Vikings 27–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:02, Vikings +16.6% win probability on one snap.
16.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Matthew StaffordLionsQ2 5:35(5:35) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 19-K.Golladay [93-S.Richardson]. PENALTY on MIN-20-M.Alexander, Defensive Pass Interference, 7 yards, enforced at MIN 42 - No Play.
7.0pts
Adam ThielenVikingsQ2 1:54(1:54) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen to DET 9 for 40 yards (23-D.Slay). DET-23-D.Slay was injured during the play.
15.1pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.33 expected points per dropback, against Lions at -0.40 expected points per dropback.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Vikings won this one — +0.03 expected points per snap, against Lions at -0.41 expected points per snap.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Vikings won this one — 2 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Lions at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Vikings won this one — 38% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Lions at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Vikings171 of 183 plays carry both curves
(:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 82-K.Rudolph for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −16.6 for LionsExpected points −6.17 for LionsThe model had Lions 16 points higher than the market did.play 93
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:02DET +17% win prob(:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 82-K.Rudolph for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:54DET +15% win prob(1:54) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen to DET 9 for 40 yards (23-D.Slay). DET-23-D.Slay was injured during the play.
2nd · 5:35DET +7% win prob(5:35) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 19-K.Golladay [93-S.Richardson]. PENALTY on MIN-20-M.Alexander, Defensive Pass Interference, 7 yards, enforced at MIN 42 - No Play.
1st · 3:51DET +7% win prob(3:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 87-L.Toilolo to MIN 30 for 16 yards (22-H.Smith).
2nd · 2:31MIN +6% win prob(2:31) 33-D.Cook left tackle pushed ob at DET 40 for 2 yards (38-M.Ford). PENALTY on MIN-82-K.Rudolph, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 42 - No Play.
1st · 13:49DET +6% win prob(13:49) 34-Z.Zenner up the middle pushed ob at MIN 37 for 29 yards (22-H.Smith).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kyle Rudolph's 44-yard touchdown catch with 0:02 left in the 2nd put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:35Matt Prater·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap D.Muhlbach+30–3
2nd10:43Matt Prater·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap D.Muhlbach+30–6
2nd4:10Matt Prater·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap D.Muhlbach+30–9
4th4:19Dan Bailey·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder M.Wile · snap K.McDermott+327–9
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Vikingscategory by categoryLions
Vikings8–0Lions
340Total yards223
5.9Yards per play3.2
38%Success rate32%
31%Third-down rate25%
2Red-zone touchdowns0
6Explosive plays4
15First downs13
2Sacks taken3
0Turnovers0
The read
Vikings ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Vikings: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.41Lions: −0.41 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.33Vikings: +0.33 expected points added per play
−0.40Lions: −0.40 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.30Vikings: −0.30 expected points added per play
−0.42Lions: −0.42 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 58 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Lions’s 69 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 6, Lions 1.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.41.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · +2.6 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Lions10.0%
inside their normal wobble · −3.7 vs their 13.7%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -7.6 pts, 9.6 points below their season mean of 2.0 pts and 1.2 times their own 8.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Cousins pass+15% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 82-K.Rudolph for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 0:02 · Vikings · 3rd & 2 at DET 44 · gained 44 · +6.17 EP · +15.3% win probability
169 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 183 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 70 yards from the MIN 30 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
-0.16
Success rate
33%
Yards
563
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.2079%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.1059%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.2853%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.5522%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.0114%
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.7817%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-1.17100%
Lions2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Lions2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR4——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Vikings 37
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 2 to the Vikings 3
Vikings0Lions3
Field goal5 plays, from the Lions 43 to the Vikings 29
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 31
Punt10 plays, from the Lions 32 to the Vikings 30
The period ended4 plays, from the Vikings 13 to the Vikings 15
2nd quarter57 plays
Punt1 play
Vikings0Lions6
Field goal11 plays, from the Vikings 38 to the Vikings 12
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 22 to the Vikings 23
Vikings0Lions9
Field goal9 plays, from the Lions 34 to the Vikings 28
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Vikings6Lions9
Vikings7Lions9
Touchdown13 plays, from the Vikings 31 to the Lions 8
The period ended8 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 39
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.6 seconds
Vikings13Lions9
Vikings14Lions9
Touchdown9 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Lions 44
3rd quarter34 plays
Vikings17Lions9
Field goal12 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Lions 6
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 28
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 34
Punt5 plays
The period ended8 plays, from the Vikings 47 to the Lions 28
4th quarter54 plays
Vikings23Lions9
Vikings24Lions9
Touchdown5 plays, from the Lions 38 to the Lions 4
Punt10 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 49
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 13 to the Vikings 25
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Lions 11 to the Lions 18
Vikings27Lions9
Field goal4 plays
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Lions 25
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Lions 24 to the Lions 15
The period ended12 plays, from the Lions 21 to the Vikings 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
