2018 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 23, 2018 · Ford Field

Minnesota VikingsWinner

Detroit Lions

MIN -6.5 ✓U 41.5 ✓DomeVikings closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 18.

Minnesota Vikings 27–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:02, DET +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:02MIN — DET MIN ball · 3rd & 2MIN 67%

(:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 82-K.Rudolph for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:02DET +17% win prob(:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 82-K.Rudolph for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 1:54DET +15% win prob(1:54) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen to DET 9 for 40 yards (23-D.Slay). DET-23-D.Slay was injured during the play.
Q2 · 5:35DET +7% win prob(5:35) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 19-K.Golladay [93-S.Richardson]. PENALTY on MIN-20-M.Alexander, Defensive Pass Interference, 7 yards, enforced at MIN 42 - No Play.
Q1 · 3:51DET +7% win prob(3:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 87-L.Toilolo to MIN 30 for 16 yards (22-H.Smith).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Lions
Offensive plays	58	69
Total yards	340 (edge)	223
Yards per play	5.9 (edge)	3.2
Expected points added / play	0.03 (edge)	-0.41
Success rate	38% (edge)	32%
Dropback rate	52%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.33 (edge)	-0.40
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.30 (edge)	-0.42
Third downs	4/13 (edge)	4/16
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	15 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0	0

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.41.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

21/28, 253 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

9.9 expected points added · +8.0% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Matthew StaffordQB

18/32, 116 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-13.4 expected points added · -13.8% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

16 att, 73 yds, 0 TD

-1.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

Zach ZennerRB

8 att, 45 yds, 0 TD

-0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Kyle RudolphTE

9/9 for 122 yds, 2 TD

32% of team targets · 11.6 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Adam ThielenWR

5/6 for 80 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 3.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DET	DET 25	8	31	3:24	Punt
2	MIN	MIN 2	4	2	1:26	Punt
3	DET	DET 43	5	28	2:40	Turnover on downs
4	MIN	MIN 25	5	6	1:30	Punt
5	DET	DET 32	10	31	4:17	Punt
6	MIN	MIN 13	4	-4	1:53	Punt
7	DET	MIN 38	9	21	4:11	Turnover on downs
8	MIN	MIN 22	5	1	2:17	Punt
9	DET	DET 34	8	29	4:17	Turnover on downs
10	MIN	MIN 31	10	89	2:33	Touchdown
11	DET	DET 25	6	9	0:56	Punt
12	MIN	MIN 30	6	80	0:36	Touchdown
13	MIN	MIN 25	12	69	6:06	Turnover on downs
14	DET	DET 25	5	3	1:33	Punt
15	MIN	MIN 25	4	9	1:25	Punt
16	DET	DET 13	4	2	1:53	Punt
17	MIN	MIN 47	10	74	5:38	Touchdown
18	DET	DET 25	10	24	4:20	Punt
19	MIN	MIN 13	5	12	1:52	Punt
20	DET	DET 11	4	-1	0:43	Turnover on downs
21	MIN	DET 10	4	-1	2:15	Turnover on downs
22	DET	DET 20	5	19	1:11	Turnover on downs
23	MIN	DET 24	4	3	1:01	Turnover on downs
24	DET	DET 21	9	27	2:03	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 89 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	21/28	253	3	0	2	9.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Dalvin Cook	16	73	4.6	-1.5
Latavius Murray	9	22	2.4	-5.9
Adam Thielen	1	3	3.0	-0.5
Kirk Cousins	1	1	1.0	-0.1
C.J. Ham	1	1	1.0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kyle Rudolph	9	9	122	2	32%	11.6
Adam Thielen	5	6	80	0	21%	3.9
Dalvin Cook	3	3	35	0	11%	1.0
Stefon Diggs	2	6	10	1	21%	-1.8
Latavius Murray	2	2	6	0	7%	-0.1
Aldrick Robinson	0	2	0	0	7%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Eric Wilson	8	1	1.0	0
Ben Gedeon	5	3	0.0	1
Harrison Smith	6	1	0.0	1
Xavier Rhodes	4	2	0.0	0
Anthony Barr	3	2	0.0	0
Anthony Harris	5	0	0.0	0
Mackensie Alexander	4	0	0.0	2
Trae Waynes	3	0	0.0	0
Kentrell Brothers	2	0	1.0	0
Jayron Kearse	2	0	0.0	0

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	18/32	116	0	0	2	-13.4
Matt Cassel	5/11	45	0	0	1	-7.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Zach Zenner	8	45	5.6	-0.8
LeGarrette Blount	11	29	2.6	-4.0
Matt Cassel	1	14	14.0	2.4
Theo Riddick	3	-2	-0.7	-4.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Kenny Golladay	6	15	58	36%	-4.8
T.J. Jones	6	6	42	14%	0.6
Zach Zenner	2	3	22	7%	0.4
Levine Toilolo	1	1	16	2%	1.0
Andy Jones	1	5	12	12%	-1.1
Brandon Powell	1	2	9	5%	-1.0
Theo Riddick	4	5	7	12%	-3.6
Jerome Cunningham	0	1	0	2%	-0.3
LeGarrette Blount	2	4	-5	10%	-3.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Quandre Diggs	6	1	0.0
Christian Jones	4	1	0.0
Nevin Lawson	3	2	1.0
Damon Harrison	3	2	0.0
Tavon Wilson	4	0	0.0
Darius Slay	3	1	0.0
Glover Quin	2	2	0.0
Ricky Jean Francois	2	2	0.0
Jarrad Davis	2	1	0.0
Tracy Walker III	2	1	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -6.5
Closing total: 41.5
MIN moneyline: -266
DET moneyline: +236

Vikings closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 18.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 36 — under by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Ford Field
Roof / surface: dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Walt Anderson
Rest: MIN 7 days · DET 7 days
Coaches: Mike Zimmer vs Matt Patricia

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.