For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 18.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Giants167 of 175 plays carry both curves
(:31) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep middle intended for 18-B.Fowler INTERCEPTED by 29-M.Hooker at IND 35. 29-M.Hooker to IND 42 for 7 yards.
Swing +22.9 for ColtsExpected points +0.82 for ColtsThe model had Giants 12 points higher than the market did.play 173
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:31NYG +23% win prob(:31) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep middle intended for 18-B.Fowler INTERCEPTED by 29-M.Hooker at IND 35. 29-M.Hooker to IND 42 for 7 yards.
1st · 2:39IND +16% win prob(2:39) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep right to 87-S.Shepard to IND 7 for 55 yards (29-M.Hooker).
3rd · 2:54IND +14% win prob(2:54) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 15-D.Inman to NYG 43 for 29 yards (36-S.Chandler).
2nd · 12:35NYG +13% win prob(12:35) 12-A.Luck pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 35-C.Riley at NYG -4. Touchback.
4th · 1:38IND +13% win prob(1:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 13-T.Hilton to NYG 8 for 12 yards (31-M.Thomas) [95-B.Hill].
4th · 7:19IND +12% win prob(7:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 13-T.Hilton to NYG 39 for 20 yards (35-C.Riley).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chester Rogers's 1-yard touchdown catch with 0:59 left in the 4th put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th9:24Aldrick Rosas·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap Z.DeOssie+327–21
4th0:59Chester Rogers·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Andrew Luckfrom Andrew LuckLead never changed again+727–28
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryColts
Giants2–6Colts
393Total yards403
6.4Yards per play6.5
48%Success rate53%
58%Third-down rate64%
3Red-zone touchdowns4
7Explosive plays7
21First downs24
0Sacks taken1
1Turnovers2
The read
Colts ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Giants, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.56 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.26Giants: +0.26 expected points added per play
+0.21Colts: +0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.56Giants: +0.56 expected points added per play
+0.29Colts: +0.29 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Giants: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.07Colts: −0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 61 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Colts’s 62 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Giants 4, Colts 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYG's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 15 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.6 points.
IND's early-down pass rate turned over: 43.1% in week 15 against 74.5% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · +1.6 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Colts9.1%
right on their number · −3.4 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYG's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 35.7 points below their season mean of 35.7% and 1.5 times their own 24.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
E.Manning pass−31% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:31) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep middle intended for 18-B.Fowler INTERCEPTED by 29-M.Hooker at IND 35. 29-M.Hooker to IND 42 for 7 yards.
Q4 0:31 · Giants · 1st & 10 at NYG 36 · gained nothing · -0.82 EP · −30.9% win probability
165 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 87 yards from the NYG 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
+0.18
Success rate
47%
Yards
794
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.1274%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.2759%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.3960%
Colts1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR15+0.6693%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.1050%
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Colts0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 32
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Giants6Colts0
Giants7Colts0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Colts 1
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 31
Giants13Colts0
Giants14Colts0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Giants 13 to the Colts 3
The period ended5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 42
2nd quarter46 plays
Intercepted5 plays, from the Colts 45 to the Giants 26
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Giants 25
Giants14Colts6
Giants14Colts7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Colts 22 to the Giants 1
Giants17Colts7
Field goal13 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Colts 22
Punt9 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Giants 49
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 43
Giants17Colts13
Giants17Colts14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Colts 15 to the Giants 1
Giants23Colts14
Giants24Colts14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Giants 15 to the Colts 1
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Giants24Colts20
Giants24Colts21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Colts 26 to the Giants 3
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter45 plays
Giants27Colts21
Field goal12 plays, from the Giants 29 to the Colts 7
Punt10 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Giants 39
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 4 to the Giants 7
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Giants27Colts27
Giants27Colts28
Touchdown11 plays, from the Colts 47 to the Giants 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 36
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
