2018 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 23, 2018 · Lucas Oil Stadium

New York Giants

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

IND -10 no coverO 48.5 ✓DomeColts closed -10, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Indianapolis Colts 28–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:31, NYG +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:31NYG — IND NYG ball · 1st & 10IND 71%

(:31) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep middle intended for 18-B.Fowler INTERCEPTED by 29-M.Hooker at IND 35. 29-M.Hooker to IND 42 for 7 yards.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:31NYG +23% win prob(:31) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep middle intended for 18-B.Fowler INTERCEPTED by 29-M.Hooker at IND 35. 29-M.Hooker to IND 42 for 7 yards.
Q1 · 2:39IND +16% win prob(2:39) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep right to 87-S.Shepard to IND 7 for 55 yards (29-M.Hooker).
Q3 · 2:54IND +14% win prob(2:54) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 15-D.Inman to NYG 43 for 29 yards (36-S.Chandler).
Q2 · 12:35NYG +13% win prob(12:35) 12-A.Luck pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 35-C.Riley at NYG -4. Touchback.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Giants	Colts
Offensive plays	61	62
Total yards	393	403 (edge)
Yards per play	6.4	6.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.26 (edge)	0.21
Success rate	48%	53% (edge)
Dropback rate	54%	77%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.56 (edge)	0.29
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.10	-0.07 (edge)
Third downs	7/12	7/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	7
First downs gained on snaps	21	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	1
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Andrew LuckQB

31/47, 357 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

13.0 expected points added · +3.4% completion over expected

Passing · NYG

Eli ManningQB

25/33, 309 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

18.5 expected points added · +10.4% completion over expected

Rushing · NYG

Saquon BarkleyRB

21 att, 43 yds, 1 TD

-6.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Marlon MackRB

12 att, 34 yds, 1 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

T.Y. HiltonWR

7/8 for 138 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 8.6 expected points added

Receiving · NYG

Sterling ShepardWR

6/7 for 113 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 11.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 25	5	7	0:55	Punt
2	NYG	NYG 25	12	70	5:54	Touchdown
3	IND	IND 25	5	9	2:01	Punt
4	NYG	NYG 13	10	83	4:29	Touchdown
5	IND	IND 25	9	49	4:14	Interception
6	NYG	NYG 20	4	5	1:30	Punt
7	IND	IND 22	13	78	6:48	Touchdown
8	NYG	NYG 25	10	53	2:59	Turnover on downs
9	IND	IND 25	9	26	1:03	Punt
10	NYG	NYG 4	1	0	0:07	End of half
11	NYG	NYG 25	7	13	3:11	Punt
12	IND	IND 15	8	85	4:11	Touchdown
13	NYG	NYG 15	10	85	3:56	Touchdown
14	IND	IND 26	9	69	3:10	Touchdown
15	NYG	NYG 25	13	66	6:12	Turnover on downs
16	IND	IND 25	10	36	2:46	Punt
17	NYG	NYG 4	4	7	2:51	Punt
18	IND	IND 47	9	44	2:48	Touchdown
19	NYG	NYG 25	4	11	0:32	Interception
20	IND	IND 42	1	0	0:23	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 85 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Giants

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Eli Manning	25/33	309	1	1	0	18.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Saquon Barkley	21	43	2.0	1	-6.0
Evan Engram	2	26	13.0	0	3.0
Wayne Gallman	2	12	6.0	0	0.4
Corey Coleman	1	5	5.0	0	0.1
Eli Manning	2	0	0.0	1	0.5
Sterling Shepard	1	-3	-3.0	0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Sterling Shepard	6	7	113	0	23%	11.0
Evan Engram	6	6	87	0	19%	8.1
Saquon Barkley	5	7	34	0	23%	-2.8
Bennie Fowler	1	3	26	0	10%	1.2
Rhett Ellison	2	2	18	0	6%	0.8
Scott Simonson	3	3	16	1	10%	1.8
Cody Latimer	1	1	10	0	3%	1.2
Elijhaa Penny	1	1	5	0	3%	0.1
Corey Coleman	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tae Davis	6	2	1.0	0	0
Curtis Riley	6	0	0.0	1	1
B.J. Goodson	4	2	0.0	0	0
Michael Thomas	4	2	0.0	0	1
B.W. Webb	4	0	0.0	0	1
Grant Haley	3	0	0.0	0	0
Janoris Jenkins	2	0	0.0	0	1
Olivier Vernon	1	1	0.0	0	0
Sean Chandler	2	0	0.0	0	1
Ukeme Eligwe	1	0	0.0	0	0

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andrew Luck	31/47	357	2	1	1	13.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Marlon Mack	12	34	2.8	1	-0.9
Andrew Luck	2	13	6.5	0	0.9
Nyheim Miller-Hines	2	2	1.0	1	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
T.Y. Hilton	7	8	138	0	18%	8.6
Chester Rogers	7	7	54	1	16%	6.4
Dontrelle Inman	4	5	46	1	11%	5.6
Nyheim Miller-Hines	4	5	41	0	11%	3.2
Zach Pascal	4	7	41	0	16%	0.7
Eric Ebron	3	5	28	0	11%	-1.0
Ryan Grant	1	3	5	0	7%	-1.5
Marlon Mack	1	3	4	0	7%	-1.9
Mo Alie-Cox	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
George Odum	3	5	0	0
Shaquille Leonard	5	1	0	0
Malik Hooker	3	2	1	1
Kenny Moore	3	1	0	0
Matthew Adams	3	0	0	0
Zaire Franklin	2	1	0	0
Mike Mitchell	1	2	0	0
Pierre Desir	3	0	0	1
Quincy Wilson	1	1	0	0
Tyquan Lewis	2	0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -10
Closing total: 48.5
NYG moneyline: +346
IND moneyline: -400

Colts closed -10, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 55 — over by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: NYG 7 days · IND 7 days
Coaches: Pat Shurmur vs Frank Reich