2018 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 23, 2018 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Pittsburgh Steelers

New Orleans SaintsWinner

NO -6.5 no coverO 53 ✓DomeSaints closed -6.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

New Orleans Saints 31–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:41, NO +26% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:41PIT — NO NO ball · 3rd & 20PIT 60%

(1:41) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep middle to 19-T.Ginn to PIT 7 for 25 yards (21-S.Davis). Pass 20, YAC 5

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:41NO +26% win prob(1:41) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep middle to 19-T.Ginn to PIT 7 for 25 yards (21-S.Davis). Pass 20, YAC 5
Q4 · 0:41PIT +24% win prob(:41) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to NO 34 for 8 yards (98-S.Rankins). FUMBLES (98-S.Rankins), RECOVERED by NO-56-D.Davis at NO 35. 56-D.Davis to NO 35 for no gain (73-R.Foster). PENALTY on NO-94-C.Jordan, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NO 35.
Q3 · 1:05NO +18% win prob(1:05) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 20, YAC 0
Q4 · 2:00NO +17% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete short left to 13-M.Thomas (23-J.Haden). PENALTY on PIT-23-J.Haden, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at PIT 26 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Saints
Offensive plays	70	60
Total yards	432 (edge)	371
Yards per play	6.2	6.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.08 (edge)	0.08
Success rate	44%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	77%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.27 (edge)	0.10
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.56	0.03 (edge)
Third downs	6/13	6/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	21
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Steelers outgained Saints 432–371 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

33/50, 380 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

17.2 expected points added · +3.8% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Drew BreesQB

27/39, 326 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

9.4 expected points added · +1.7% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

Jaylen SamuelsRB

12 att, 53 yds, 0 TD

-0.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Mark IngramRB

11 att, 35 yds, 1 TD

-1.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

Antonio BrownWR

14/19 for 185 yds, 2 TD

39% of team targets · 12.6 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

JuJu Smith-SchusterWR

11/15 for 115 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 2.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 25	6	18	2:02	Punt
2	NO	NO 20	5	34	2:40	Interception
3	PIT	PIT 40	9	29	4:46	Turnover on downs
4	NO	NO 25	8	42	2:35	Touchdown
5	PIT	PIT 10	10	72	3:52	Turnover on downs
6	NO	NO 25	10	53	3:43	Touchdown
7	PIT	PIT 25	5	-1	0:56	Punt
8	NO	NO 35	5	11	2:42	Punt
9	PIT	PIT 3	16	79	6:04	Touchdown
10	NO	NO 25	5	50	0:38	Turnover on downs
11	PIT	PIT 17	2	0	0:02	End of half
12	NO	NO 25	13	75	5:47	Touchdown
13	PIT	PIT 25	11	80	4:25	Touchdown
14	NO	NO 25	6	-2	2:10	Punt
15	PIT	PIT 34	5	66	1:36	Touchdown
16	NO	NO 25	5	8	1:13	Punt
17	PIT	PIT 25	8	40	4:37	Fumble
18	NO	NO 35	7	48	3:59	Turnover on downs
19	PIT	PIT 37	4	9	2:07	Turnover on downs
20	NO	PIT 46	11	52	2:41	Touchdown
21	PIT	PIT 25	8	40	0:53	Fumble
22	NO	NO 20	1	0	0:32	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 80 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	33/50	380	3	0	3	17.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jaylen Samuels	12	53	4.4	-0.3
Ben Roethlisberger	2	4	2.0	-0.1
Stevan Ridley	3	4	1.3	-6.3
Roosevelt Nix	1	4	4.0	-2.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Antonio Brown	14	19	185	2	39%	12.6
JuJu Smith-Schuster	11	15	115	0	31%	2.8
Vance McDonald	1	4	49	0	8%	0.9
Ryan Switzer	3	3	18	0	6%	0.5
Jaylen Samuels	3	3	11	1	6%	2.8
Eli Rogers	1	1	2	0	2%	1.0
Roosevelt Nix	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.4
Xavier Grimble	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.6
James Washington	0	2	0	0	4%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Mike Hilton	6	0	0.0	0	0
Sean Davis	5	0	0.0	1	2
Joe Haden	5	0	0.0	0	0
Jon Bostic	3	1	0.0	0	0
Terrell Edmunds	4	0	0.0	0	0
Vince Williams	3	0	0.0	0	0
Cameron Heyward	0	3	0.0	0	1
Coty Sensabaugh	3	0	0.0	0	2
Stephon Tuitt	1	1	1.0	0	0
T.J. Watt	2	0	1.0	0	1

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Brees	27/39	326	1	0	2	9.4
Taysom Hill	0/1	0	0	1	0	-5.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Mark Ingram	11	35	3.2	1	-1.1
Alvin Kamara	7	23	3.3	2	1.7
Drew Brees	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Thomas	11	13	109	1	33%	7.2
Alvin Kamara	4	6	82	0	15%	5.5
Ted Ginn	5	8	74	0	21%	-1.2
Keith Kirkwood	2	4	35	0	10%	-0.4
Tre'Quan Smith	1	1	11	0	3%	0.7
Mark Ingram	1	2	8	0	5%	-0.8
Benjamin Watson	1	2	6	0	5%	-1.1
Josh Hill	2	3	1	0	8%	-2.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Eli Apple	8	1	0.0	0
Vonn Bell	6	3	0.0	0
Marshon Lattimore	6	0	0.0	1
P.J. Williams	4	0	0.0	0
Sheldon Rankins	2	1	0.0	0
David Onyemata	2	1	0.0	0
Alex Anzalone	2	1	1.0	0
Demario Davis	3	0	1.0	0
Tyeler Davison	2	0	1.0	0
Marcus Williams	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -6.5
Closing total: 53
PIT moneyline: +238
NO moneyline: -269

Saints closed -6.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 53; the game landed 59 — over by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: PIT 7 days · NO 6 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs Sean Payton