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Pittsburgh Steelers 28 at New Orleans Saints 31. Final.
Saints -6.5 no coverO 53 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 16
New Orleans Saints 31, Steelers 28 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:41, 3rd and 20, on Ted Ginn — 25.7 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:41 · 3rd and 20
Ted Ginn
Saints
(1:41) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep middle to 19-T.Ginn to PIT 7 for 25 yards (21-S.Davis). Pass 20, YAC 5
Dome
Saints closed -6.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
New Orleans Saints 31–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:41, Saints +25.7% win probability on one snap.
25.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Antonio BrownSteelersQ3 1:05(1:05) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 20, YAC 0
17.5pts
JuJu Smith-SchusterSaintsQ4 0:41(:41) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to NO 34 for 8 yards (98-S.Rankins). FUMBLES (98-S.Rankins), RECOVERED by NO-56-D.Davis at NO 35. 56-D.Davis to NO 35 for no gain (73-R.Foster). PENALTY on NO-94-C.Jordan, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NO 35.
23.7pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Saints won this one — +0.03 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.56 expected points per carry.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Saints won this one — 4 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Steelers at 3 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Saints won this one — 1 giveaway, against Steelers at 2 giveaways.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — +0.27 expected points per dropback, against Saints at +0.10 expected points per dropback.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Steelers174 of 184 plays carry both curves
(1:41) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep middle to 19-T.Ginn to PIT 7 for 25 yards (21-S.Davis). Pass 20, YAC 5
Swing +25.7 for SaintsExpected points +2.88 for SaintsThe model had Steelers 6 points higher than the market did.play 167
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:41NO +26% win prob(1:41) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep middle to 19-T.Ginn to PIT 7 for 25 yards (21-S.Davis). Pass 20, YAC 5
4th · 0:41PIT +24% win prob(:41) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to NO 34 for 8 yards (98-S.Rankins). FUMBLES (98-S.Rankins), RECOVERED by NO-56-D.Davis at NO 35. 56-D.Davis to NO 35 for no gain (73-R.Foster). PENALTY on NO-94-C.Jordan, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NO 35.
3rd · 1:05NO +18% win prob(1:05) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 20, YAC 0
4th · 2:00NO +17% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete short left to 13-M.Thomas (23-J.Haden). PENALTY on PIT-23-J.Haden, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at PIT 26 - No Play.
4th · 10:21PIT +17% win prob(10:21) 76-C.Okorafor reported in as eligible. 22-S.Ridley right guard to NO 35 for -1 yards (29-K.Coleman, 94-C.Jordan). FUMBLES (29-K.Coleman), RECOVERED by NO-57-A.Okafor at NO 35. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 6:17
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Michael Thomas's 2-yard touchdown catch with 1:28 left in the 4th put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st5:37Chris Boswell·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap K.Canaday+33–0
Saints ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.56 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Steelers: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.08Saints: +0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.27Steelers: +0.27 expected points added per play
+0.10Saints: +0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.56Steelers: −0.56 expected points added per play
+0.03Saints: +0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 70 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Saints’s 60 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 4, Saints 4.
NoteSteelers outgained Saints 432-371 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
PIT's pass rate over expected, +16.7 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 2.7 points clear of the next team along.
69 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 26 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.3 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Saints13.0%
right on their number · −2.4 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNO's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 68.8%, 17.4 points above their season mean of 51.3% and 1.5 times their own 11.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
53 dressed · 8 never used
73Ramon FosterG · Every snap100%75 snaps
78Alejandro VillanuevaT · Every snap100%75 snaps
71Matt FeilerT · Every snap100%75 snaps
66David DeCastroG · Every snap100%75 snaps
53Maurkice PounceyC · Every snap100%75 snaps
7Ben RoethlisbergerQB · Every snap100%75 snaps
84Antonio BrownWR · Full-time96%72 snaps
19JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Full-time92%69 snaps
38Jaylen SamuelsRB · Heavy rotation71%53 snaps
17Eli RogersWR · Heavy rotation51%38 snaps
10Ryan SwitzerWR · Rotational47%35 snaps
89Vance McDonaldTE · Rotational45%34 snaps
13James WashingtonWR · Rotational36%27 snaps
81Jesse JamesTE · Situational23%17 snaps
85Xavier GrimbleTE · Situational20%15 snaps
45Roosevelt NixFB · Situational7%5 snaps
22Stevan RidleyRB · Situational7%5 snaps
76Chukwuma OkoraforT · Situational5%4 snaps
88Darrius Heyward-BeyWR · Situational1%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Brian AllenCBMarcus AllenDBL.T. WaltonDEOla AdeniyiOLBMason RudolphQBJoshua DobbsQBJames ConnerRBZach BannerT
New Orleans Saints
53 dressed · 9 never used
75Andrus PeatT · Every snap100%66 snaps
67Larry WarfordG · Every snap100%66 snaps
60Max UngerC · Every snap100%66 snaps
9Drew BreesQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
71Ryan RamczykT · Full-time97%64 snaps
13Michael ThomasWR · Full-time92%61 snaps
89Josh HillTE · Heavy rotation70%46 snaps
41Alvin KamaraRB · Heavy rotation61%40 snaps
18Keith KirkwoodWR · Heavy rotation58%38 snaps
72Terron ArmsteadT · Heavy rotation58%38 snaps
64Will ClappC · Heavy rotation56%37 snaps
22Mark IngramRB · Rotational48%32 snaps
19Ted GinnWR · Rotational41%27 snaps
10Tre'Quan SmithWR · Rotational39%26 snaps
82Benjamin WatsonTE · Rotational38%25 snaps
42Zach LineFB · Situational18%12 snaps
7Taysom HillQB · Situational15%10 snaps
11Tommylee LewisWR · Situational6%4 snaps
43Marcus WilliamsFS · Situational2%1 snap
63Cameron TomC · Situational2%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Ken CrawleyCBTrey HendricksonDEMitchell LoewenDEManti Te'oMLBTeddy BridgewaterQBJermon BushrodTDan ArnoldTESimmie CobbsWRAustin CarrWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Roethlisberger pass−36% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:41) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to NO 34 for 8 yards (98-S.Rankins). FUMBLES (98-S.Rankins), RECOVERED by NO-56-D.Davis at NO 35. 56-D.Davis to NO 35 for no gain (73-R.Foster). PENALTY on NO-94-C.Jordan, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NO 35.
Q4 0:41 · Steelers · 1st & 10 at NO 42 · gained 7 · -2.30 EP · −35.7% win probability
172 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 184 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 97 yards from the PIT 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
42%
Yards
801
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47+0.1574%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.2689%
Steelers0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR14+0.2493%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.1343%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.4529%
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Steelers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Steelers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Steelers1 RB, 0 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 43
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo quarterbacks, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Steelers 46
Steelers3Saints0
Field goal9 plays, from the Steelers 40 to the Saints 30
Steelers3Saints6
Steelers3Saints7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Steelers 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
The period ended8 plays, from the Steelers 10 to the Steelers 38
2nd quarter54 plays
Steelers6Saints7
Field goal4 plays, from the Saints 13 to the Saints 12
Steelers6Saints13
Steelers6Saints14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Steelers 8
Punt5 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 35 to the Saints 47
Steelers12Saints14
Steelers14Saints14
Touchdown19 plays, from the Steelers 3 to the Saints 2
Steelers14Saints17
Field goal6 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Steelers 25
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Steelers14Saints23
Steelers14Saints24
Touchdown13 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Steelers 1
Steelers20Saints24
Steelers21Saints24
Touchdown12 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Saints 3
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 36
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Steelers27Saints24
Steelers28Saints24
Touchdown6 plays, from the Steelers 34 to the Saints 20
The period ended4 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 26
4th quarter50 plays
Punt2 plays
Offense on the fieldSix linemen, two backs, one tight end and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, three linebackers and three backsIn the boxNine defenders
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Saints 34
No good9 plays, from the Saints 35 to the Steelers 30
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 37 to the Steelers 42
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Steelers28Saints30
Steelers28Saints31
Touchdown15 plays, from the Steelers 46 to the Steelers 2
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Offense on the fieldFive receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Saints 42
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
