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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:16 AM ET · 16 to play
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 at Dallas Cowboys 27. Final.
Cowboys -7 pushU 48 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 16
Dallas Cowboys 27, Buccaneers 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 1:57, 3rd and 5, on Jameis Winston — 14.4 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 1:57 · 3rd and 5
Jameis Winston
Cowboys
(1:57) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston sacked at DAL 36 for -2 yards (94-R.Gregory). FUMBLES (94-R.Gregory) [94-R.Gregory], RECOVERED by DAL-54-J.Smith at DAL 31. 54-J.Smith for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Cowboys closed -7 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Dallas Cowboys 27–20. Biggest swing: Q1 1:57, Cowboys +14.4% win probability on one snap.
14.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jacquizz RodgersBuccaneersQ2 0:25(:25) (Shotgun) 32-J.Rodgers right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.8pts
Chris GodwinBuccaneersQ3 12:15(12:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 12-C.Godwin to DAL 26 for 20 yards (31-B.Jones).
8.5pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Cowboys won this one — -0.17 expected points per carry, against Buccaneers at -0.61 expected points per carry.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Cowboys won this one — no giveaways, against Buccaneers at 2 giveaways.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Cowboys won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Buccaneers at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Cowboys won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 4 chunk plays.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Buccaneers167 of 177 plays carry both curves
(1:57) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston sacked at DAL 36 for -2 yards (94-R.Gregory). FUMBLES (94-R.Gregory) [94-R.Gregory], RECOVERED by DAL-54-J.Smith at DAL 31. 54-J.Smith for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +14.4 for CowboysExpected points +9.61 for CowboysThe model had Buccaneers 13 points higher than the market did.play 34
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 1:57TB +14% win prob(1:57) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston sacked at DAL 36 for -2 yards (94-R.Gregory). FUMBLES (94-R.Gregory) [94-R.Gregory], RECOVERED by DAL-54-J.Smith at DAL 31. 54-J.Smith for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:25DAL +9% win prob(:25) (Shotgun) 32-J.Rodgers right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 12:15DAL +8% win prob(12:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 12-C.Godwin to DAL 26 for 20 yards (31-B.Jones).
3rd · 10:45TB +8% win prob(10:45) (Field Goal formation) 5-C.Santos 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
1st · 13:49DAL +8% win prob(13:49) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 13-M.Evans ran ob at DAL 13 for 38 yards (31-B.Jones) [90-D.Lawrence].
3rd · 2:38TB +8% win prob(2:38) 3-J.Winston FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 20, RECOVERED by DAL-94-R.Gregory at TB 6. 94-R.Gregory to TB 4 for 2 yards (3-J.Winston).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dak Prescott's 7-yard rushing touchdown with 7:12 left in the 1st put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:12Cairo Santos·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap G.Sanborn+33–0
1st7:12Dak Prescott·7-yd TD run7-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+73–7
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Cowboys, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.61 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Buccaneers: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.03Cowboys: −0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.10Buccaneers: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.10Cowboys: +0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.61Buccaneers: −0.61 expected points added per play
−0.17Cowboys: −0.17 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 75 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 48 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 4, Cowboys 3.
NoteBuccaneers outgained Cowboys 383-234 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DAL's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 75.0% in week 15 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.0 points.
TB's early-down pass rate turned over: 48.6% in week 15 against 65.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
60 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 18 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.9 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−1.25× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Cowboys14.8%
right on their number · −0.8 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 43.6%, 11.5 points below their season mean of 55.1% and 1.3 times their own 8.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
53 dressed · 9 never used
76Donovan SmithT · Every snap100%80 snaps
74Ali MarpetG · Every snap100%80 snaps
3Jameis WinstonQB · Every snap100%80 snaps
66Ryan JensenC · Every snap100%80 snaps
69Demar DotsonOT · Every snap100%80 snaps
13Mike EvansWR · Full-time82%66 snaps
10Adam HumphriesWR · Heavy rotation79%63 snaps
12Chris GodwinWR · Heavy rotation76%61 snaps
84Cameron BrateTE · Heavy rotation71%57 snaps
77Caleb BenenochT · Heavy rotation65%52 snaps
25Peyton BarberRB · Heavy rotation59%47 snaps
32Jacquizz RodgersRB · Rotational40%32 snaps
82Antony AuclairTE · Rotational38%30 snaps
11DeSean JacksonWR · Rotational36%29 snaps
65Alex CappaG · Rotational35%28 snaps
85Bobo WilsonWR · Situational16%13 snaps
86Donnie ErnsbergerTE · Situational2%2 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
David RiversCBJosh ShawCBRakeem Nunez-RochesDTJeremiah LedbetterDTMichael LiedtkeGRyan FitzpatrickQBRyan GriffinQBTanner HudsonTEJustin WatsonWR
Dallas Cowboys
53 dressed · 9 never used
73Joe LooneyC · Every snap100%52 snaps
76Xavier Su'a-FiloG · Every snap100%52 snaps
71La'el CollinsT · Every snap100%52 snaps
77Tyron SmithT · Every snap100%52 snaps
70Zack MartinG · Every snap100%52 snaps
4Dak PrescottQB · Every snap100%52 snaps
21Ezekiel ElliottRB · Full-time94%49 snaps
19Amari CooperWR · Full-time85%44 snaps
13Michael GallupWR · Heavy rotation79%41 snaps
11Cole BeasleyWR · Heavy rotation67%35 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Heavy rotation63%33 snaps
89Blake JarwinTE · Heavy rotation52%27 snaps
85Noah BrownWR · Situational21%11 snaps
80Rico GathersTE · Situational12%6 snaps
49Jamize OlawaleFB · Situational10%5 snaps
17Allen HurnsWR · Situational8%4 snaps
45Rod SmithRB · Situational6%3 snaps
14Lance LenoirWR · Situational4%2 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Anthony BrownCBDavid IrvingDEDorance ArmstrongDEConnor WilliamsGSean LeeILBChris CovingtonLBMike WhiteQBCooper RushQBTavon AustinWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Winston sacked−19% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:57) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston sacked at DAL 36 for -2 yards (94-R.Gregory). FUMBLES (94-R.Gregory) [94-R.Gregory], RECOVERED by DAL-54-J.Smith at DAL 31. 54-J.Smith for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 1:57 · Buccaneers · 3rd & 5 at DAL 34 · gained nothing · -9.61 EP · −19.2% win probability
165 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 75 yards from the DAL 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
42%
Yards
615
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55-0.0469%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.0560%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.0154%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.3244%
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR6+0.6983%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Buccaneers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Buccaneers3Cowboys0
Field goal9 plays, from the Buccaneers 36 to the Cowboys 13
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Buccaneers3Cowboys6
Buccaneers3Cowboys7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Buccaneers 7
Offense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Buccaneers3Cowboys13
Touchdown11 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Cowboys 34
Buccaneers3Cowboys14
The period ended5 plays, from the Buccaneers 29 to the Buccaneers 35
2nd quarter56 plays
Buccaneers6Cowboys14
Field goal13 plays, from the Buccaneers 40 to the Cowboys 27
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 32
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Buccaneers 26
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Cowboys 48
Punt6 plays
Buccaneers6Cowboys17
Field goal5 plays, from the Buccaneers 46 to the Buccaneers 41
Buccaneers12Cowboys17
Buccaneers13Cowboys17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Cowboys 2
The period ended6 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 47
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 18 to the Cowboys 24
No good7 plays, from the Buccaneers 36 to the Cowboys 26
Buccaneers13Cowboys20
Field goal12 plays, from the Cowboys 42 to the Buccaneers 2
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 33
Buccaneers13Cowboys26
Buccaneers13Cowboys27
Touchdown3 plays
The period ended7 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 43
4th quarter43 plays
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Buccaneers 45 to the Cowboys 2
Punt13 plays, from the Cowboys 2 to the Cowboys 31
Buccaneers19Cowboys27
Buccaneers20Cowboys27
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 29 to the Cowboys 7
The period ended6 plays, from the Buccaneers 44 to the Buccaneers 31
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Buccaneerscategory by categoryCowboys
Buccaneers3
Cowboys0
