2018 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 23, 2018 · AT&T Stadium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Dallas CowboysWinner

DAL -7 pushU 48 ✓DomeCowboys closed -7 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Dallas Cowboys 27–20. Biggest swing: Q1 1:57, TB +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 1:57TB — DAL TB ball · 3rd & 5DAL 77%

(1:57) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston sacked at DAL 36 for -2 yards (94-R.Gregory). FUMBLES (94-R.Gregory) [94-R.Gregory], RECOVERED by DAL-54-J.Smith at DAL 31. 54-J.Smith for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 1:57TB +14% win prob(1:57) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston sacked at DAL 36 for -2 yards (94-R.Gregory). FUMBLES (94-R.Gregory) [94-R.Gregory], RECOVERED by DAL-54-J.Smith at DAL 31. 54-J.Smith for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:25DAL +9% win prob(:25) (Shotgun) 32-J.Rodgers right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 12:15DAL +8% win prob(12:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 12-C.Godwin to DAL 26 for 20 yards (31-B.Jones).
Q3 · 10:45TB +8% win prob(10:45) (Field Goal formation) 5-C.Santos 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Cowboys
Offensive plays	75	48
Total yards	383 (edge)	234
Yards per play	5.1 (edge)	4.9
Expected points added / play	-0.10	-0.03 (edge)
Success rate	45% (edge)	44%
Dropback rate	72%	54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.10 (edge)	0.10
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.61	-0.17 (edge)
Third downs	4/13	3/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Buccaneers outgained Cowboys 383–234 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Jameis WinstonQB

34/48, 336 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

8.1 expected points added · +4.8% completion over expected

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

20/25, 161 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

2.5 expected points added · +7.4% completion over expected

Rushing · DAL

Ezekiel ElliottRB

18 att, 85 yds, 0 TD

-2.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Peyton BarberRB

17 att, 43 yds, 0 TD

-7.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

6/10 for 90 yds, 1 TD

21% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Adam HumphriesWR

10/12 for 79 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 7.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 36	8	55	2:52	Turnover on downs
2	DAL	DAL 25	10	73	5:01	Touchdown
3	TB	TB 25	10	46	5:26	Defensive touchdown
4	TB	TB 29	15	54	7:28	Turnover on downs
5	DAL	DAL 25	5	7	2:08	Punt
6	TB	TB 20	4	5	1:24	Punt
7	DAL	DAL 30	6	18	2:33	Punt
8	TB	TB 15	4	-8	0:59	Punt
9	DAL	TB 46	4	5	0:26	Turnover on downs
10	TB	TB 25	10	54	1:23	Touchdown
11	DAL	DAL 25	4	13	0:20	End of half
12	DAL	DAL 18	5	5	1:40	Punt
13	TB	TB 36	7	30	2:40	Turnover on downs
14	DAL	DAL 42	12	56	6:59	Turnover on downs
15	TB	TB 25	3	8	1:09	Fumble
16	DAL	TB 4	3	4	0:09	Touchdown
17	TB	TB 25	18	73	9:35	Turnover on downs
18	DAL	DAL 2	9	40	3:20	Punt
19	TB	TB 29	9	66	2:23	Touchdown
20	DAL	TB 44	5	13	2:05	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 73 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jameis Winston	34/48	336	1	0	3	8.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Peyton Barber	17	43	2.5	0	-7.4
Jameis Winston	4	14	3.5	0	-8.7
DeSean Jackson	1	4	4.0	0	-0.4
Jacquizz Rodgers	2	2	1.0	1	1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	6	10	90	1	21%	6.2
Adam Humphries	10	12	79	0	25%	7.5
Jacquizz Rodgers	7	7	55	0	15%	5.7
Chris Godwin	3	6	39	0	13%	0.8
Bobo Wilson	2	3	28	0	6%	1.0
DeSean Jackson	1	4	24	0	8%	0.4
Peyton Barber	3	3	13	0	6%	-0.4
Cameron Brate	2	3	8	0	6%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Andrew Adams	5	2	0.0	0
Jordan Whitehead	7	0	0.0	0
Adarius Taylor	4	1	0.0	1
Lavonte David	3	2	0.0	0
Isaiah Johnson	4	0	0.0	0
Brent Grimes	3	0	0.0	0
Vita Vea	2	1	1.0	0
Jason Pierre-Paul	1	2	0.0	0
De'Vante Harris	2	0	0.0	0
Javien Elliott	1	1	0.0	0

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dak Prescott	20/25	161	1	0	1	2.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	18	85	4.7	0	-2.2
Dak Prescott	4	2	0.5	1	-1.7
Rod Smith	2	-7	-3.5	0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Gallup	3	4	53	1	16%	4.8
Cole Beasley	5	5	50	0	20%	3.4
Ezekiel Elliott	5	6	24	0	24%	-3.3
Amari Cooper	4	5	20	0	20%	-1.1
Blake Jarwin	2	3	8	0	12%	-0.5
Noah Brown	1	2	6	0	8%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Leighton Vander Esch	10	4	0.0	0
Jaylon Smith	4	5	0.0	2
Byron Jones	8	0	0.0	1
Jourdan Lewis	6	1	0.0	0
Xavier Woods	3	3	0.0	1
Randy Gregory	3	0	1.0	0
Antwaun Woods	2	1	0.0	0
Maliek Collins	3	0	1.0	0
Chidobe Awuzie	2	1	0.0	1
Jeff Heath	3	0	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DAL -7
Closing total: 48
TB moneyline: +277
DAL moneyline: -315

Cowboys closed -7 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Total closed 48; the game landed 47 — under by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: TB 7 days · DAL 7 days
Coaches: Dirk Koetter vs Jason Garrett