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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2018 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 22, 2018 · Nissan Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2018 Week 16
It turned at Q4 1:22, 3rd and 3, on Kevin Byard — 20.5 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Tennessee Titans 25–16. Biggest swing: Q4 1:22, Titans +20.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:22 · 3rd and 3
Kevin Byard
Titans
(1:22) (Shotgun) 8-J.Johnson pass deep left intended for 18-J.Doctson INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at TEN 27. 31-K.Byard to TEN 28 for 1 yard (18-J.Doctson).
20.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Titans won this one — no giveaways, against Commanders at 2 giveaways.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Titans at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Titans won this one — +0.24 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.12 expected points per dropback.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 8 of 14 on third down, against Titans at 5 of 11 on third down.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 18.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 34 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
(1:22) (Shotgun) 8-J.Johnson pass deep left intended for 18-J.Doctson INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at TEN 27. 31-K.Byard to TEN 28 for 1 yard (18-J.Doctson).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
MyCole Pruitt's 2-yard touchdown catch with 4:35 left in the 4th put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
MyCole Pruitt2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Blaine GabbertLead never changed again+716–199 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Commanderscategory by categoryTitans
Commanders ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Titans, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 59 snaps at a 44% dropback rate against Titans’s 55 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 2, Titans 4.
Commanders outgained Titans 292-291 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's pass rate over expected, −15.4 pts, is past their previous low of −10.1 pts in week 7 — the lowest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points. · −2.2σ from their own normal
TEN's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 33.3% in week 15 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 16.0 points. · −0.9σ from their own normal
WAS's sack or hit rate turned over: 27.6% in week 15 against 13.8% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points. · −0.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 13 pts
Over Expected room →Commanders-15.4 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −13.1 vs their -2.3 pts, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−2.23× that swing) · 59 snaps
Titans-8.1 ptsright on their number · −0.5 vs their -7.7 pts, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 55 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 17% to 88%
Tendencies room →Commanders37.8%leaned — ran early · −17.2 vs their 55.0%, and they swing ±12.9 week to week (−1.34× that swing) · 45 early downs
Titans43.2%right on their number · −4.8 vs their 48.0%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (−0.40× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -46% to 104%
Fourth Down room →Commanders—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 28.9%.
Titans0.0%inside their normal wobble · −14.3 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±16.0 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 32%
Tendencies room →Commanders13.8%right on their number · −1.5 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Titans11.5%right on their number · −1.9 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.26× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
WAS's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -15.4 pts, 13.1 points below their season mean of -2.3 pts and 2.2 times their own 5.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
53 dressed · 8 never used
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Tennessee Titans
53 dressed · 9 never used
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Who moved the needle
Passing · WAS
13/23, 153 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-2.8 expected points added · -4.7% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
10/13, 110 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
3.3 expected points added · +7.1% completion over expected
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:22) (Shotgun) 8-J.Johnson pass deep left intended for 18-J.Doctson INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at TEN 27. 31-K.Byard to TEN 28 for 1 yard (18-J.Doctson).
Q4 1:22 · Commanders · 3rd & 3 at TEN 44 · gained nothing · -2.83 EP · −31.9% win probability
146 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 160 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 93 yards from the WAS 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Commanders3
Titans0Commanders3Titans6Commanders9Titans6Commanders10Titans6Commanders10Titans9Commanders13Titans9Commanders13Titans12Commanders16Titans12Commanders16Titans18Commanders16Titans19Commanders16Titans25Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Commanders at Titans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Johnson | 13/23 | 153 | 1 | 2 | 2 | −2.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 26 | 119 | 4.6 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Josh Johnson | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Chris Thompson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamison Crowder | 5 | 7 | 78 | 0 | 30% | +4.1 |
| Josh Doctson | 3 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Foster | 4 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ha Ha Clinton-Dix | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Stroman |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 10/13 | 110 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +3.3 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 7/11 | 101 | 1 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2018_16_WAS_TEN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Titans closed -12.5, won by 9 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 38; the game landed 41 — over by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| 20 |
| 5.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.3 |
| 26% |
| −6.5 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 13% | +0.3 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 9% | +0.2 |
| Chris Thompson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +1.3 |
| Michael Floyd | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 13% | +1.6 |
| Byron Marshall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Preston Smith | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaun Dion Hamilton | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Norman | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deshazor Everett | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Allen | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Brown | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Swearinger | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| +2.8 |
| Derrick Henry | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 21 | 84 | 4.0 | 1 | −0.4 |
| Marcus Mariota | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Dion Lewis | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Darius Jennings | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Corey Davis | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taywan Taylor | 3 | 3 | 64 | 0 | 13% | +4.8 |
| Corey Davis | 3 | 5 | 45 | 0 | 22% | −0.1 |
| Darius Jennings | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 13% | +3.4 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 2 | 3 | 29 | 1 | 13% | +3.1 |
| Dion Lewis | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 17% | −1.6 |
| Anthony Firkser | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 13% | +0.4 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.5 |
| Luke Stocker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wesley Woodyard | 3 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Byard | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jayon Brown | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Butler | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Rashaan Evans | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adoree' Jackson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| LeShaun Sims | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DaQuan Jones | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harold Landry | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Morgan | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
