2018 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 22, 2018 · Nissan Stadium

Washington Commanders

Tennessee TitansWinner

TEN -12.5 no coverO 38 ✓Titans closed -12.5, won by 9 — but didn't cover.

Tennessee Titans 25–16. Biggest swing: Q4 1:22, WAS +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:22WAS — TEN WAS ball · 3rd & 3TEN 75%

(1:22) (Shotgun) 8-J.Johnson pass deep left intended for 18-J.Doctson INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at TEN 27. 31-K.Byard to TEN 28 for 1 yard (18-J.Doctson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:22WAS +20% win prob(1:22) (Shotgun) 8-J.Johnson pass deep left intended for 18-J.Doctson INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at TEN 27. 31-K.Byard to TEN 28 for 1 yard (18-J.Doctson).
Q4 · 8:09TEN +14% win prob(8:09) 7-B.Gabbert pass deep right to 13-T.Taylor pushed ob at WAS 40 for 35 yards (31-F.Moreau; 24-J.Norman).
Q4 · 8:56WAS +12% win prob(8:56) (Shotgun) 8-J.Johnson sacked at TEN 28 for -10 yards (58-H.Landry).
Q3 · 4:20TEN +9% win prob(4:20) (Shotgun) 7-B.Gabbert pass deep middle to 85-M.Pruitt to TEN 48 for 27 yards (20-H.Clinton-Dix).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Commanders	Titans
Offensive plays	59	55
Total yards	292 (edge)	291
Yards per play	4.9	5.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.02	0.07 (edge)
Success rate	54% (edge)	44%
Dropback rate	44%	53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.12	0.24 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.06 (edge)	-0.12
Third downs	8/14 (edge)	5/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	16	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Commanders outgained Titans 292–291 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Josh JohnsonQB

13/23, 153 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-2.8 expected points added · -4.7% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Marcus MariotaQB

10/13, 110 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

3.3 expected points added · +7.1% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Adrian PetersonRB

26 att, 119 yds, 0 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

21 att, 84 yds, 1 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Jamison CrowderWR

5/7 for 78 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

Taywan TaylorWR

3/3 for 64 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 28	8	35	2:51	Turnover on downs
2	TEN	TEN 31	13	64	6:32	Touchdown
3	WAS	WAS 25	5	9	2:05	Punt
4	TEN	TEN 30	7	18	3:06	Punt
5	WAS	WAS 7	18	108	10:58	Touchdown
6	TEN	TEN 25	14	51	4:28	Turnover on downs
7	TEN	TEN 25	6	19	1:49	Punt
8	WAS	WAS 7	4	3	1:38	Punt
9	TEN	TEN 49	4	2	1:18	Punt
10	WAS	WAS 14	11	59	5:18	Turnover on downs
11	TEN	TEN 25	11	60	5:02	Turnover on downs
12	WAS	WAS 25	13	47	6:46	Turnover on downs
13	TEN	TEN 25	9	70	3:39	Touchdown
14	WAS	WAS 25	8	31	3:13	Interception
15	TEN	TEN 28	4	7	1:03	Punt
16	WAS	WAS 15	2	0	0:14	Defensive touchdown

0 of 16 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 108 scrimmage yards over 18 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Johnson	13/23	153	1	2	2	-2.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Adrian Peterson	26	119	4.6	0.8
Josh Johnson	4	22	5.5	1.2
Chris Thompson	4	20	5.0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jamison Crowder	5	7	78	0	30%	4.1
Josh Doctson	3	6	30	0	26%	-6.5
Jeremy Sprinkle	2	3	22	0	13%	0.3
Adrian Peterson	1	2	8	0	9%	0.2
Chris Thompson	1	1	8	0	4%	1.3
Michael Floyd	1	3	7	1	13%	1.6
Byron Marshall	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Mason Foster	4	5	1.0	1
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix	6	1	0.0	0
Greg Stroman	5	0	0.0	0
Preston Smith	2	2	0.0	0
Shaun Dion Hamilton	4	0	0.0	0
Josh Norman	2	1	0.0	0
Deshazor Everett	2	1	0.0	0
Jonathan Allen	2	1	1.0	0
Zach Brown	2	0	0.0	0
D.J. Swearinger	2	0	0.0	0

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	Sacked	EPA
Marcus Mariota	10/13	110	0	2	3.3
Blaine Gabbert	7/11	101	1	1	2.8
Derrick Henry	0/1	0	0	0	-0.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	21	84	4.0	1	-0.4
Marcus Mariota	1	7	7.0	0	1.4
Dion Lewis	3	5	1.7	0	-1.4
Darius Jennings	1	2	2.0	0	-0.6
Corey Davis	1	1	1.0	0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Taywan Taylor	3	3	64	0	13%	4.8
Corey Davis	3	5	45	0	22%	-0.1
Darius Jennings	3	3	29	0	13%	3.4
MyCole Pruitt	2	3	29	1	13%	3.1
Dion Lewis	3	4	20	0	17%	-1.6
Anthony Firkser	2	3	16	0	13%	0.4
Derrick Henry	1	1	8	0	4%	0.5
Luke Stocker	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Wesley Woodyard	3	5	1.0	0	0
Kevin Byard	5	3	0.0	1	2
Jayon Brown	4	3	0.0	0	0
Malcolm Butler	5	0	0.0	1	1
Rashaan Evans	1	4	0.0	0	0
Adoree' Jackson	3	2	0.0	0	2
LeShaun Sims	3	1	0.0	0	0
DaQuan Jones	1	2	0.0	0	0
Harold Landry	1	2	1.0	0	0
Derrick Morgan	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TEN -12.5
Closing total: 38
WAS moneyline: +481
TEN moneyline: -599

Titans closed -12.5, won by 9 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 38; the game landed 41 — over by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 51°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: WAS 6 days · TEN 6 days
Coaches: Jay Gruden vs Mike Vrabel