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Washington Commanders 16 at Tennessee Titans 25. Final.
Titans -12.5 no coverO 38 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 16
Tennessee Titans 25, Commanders 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 1:22, 3rd and 3, on Kevin Byard — 20.5 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:22 · 3rd and 3
Kevin Byard
Titans
(1:22) (Shotgun) 8-J.Johnson pass deep left intended for 18-J.Doctson INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at TEN 27. 31-K.Byard to TEN 28 for 1 yard (18-J.Doctson).
Titans closed -12.5, won by 9 — but didn't cover.
Tennessee Titans 25–16. Biggest swing: Q4 1:22, Titans +20.5% win probability on one snap.
20.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Josh JohnsonTitansQ4 8:56(8:56) (Shotgun) 8-J.Johnson sacked at TEN 28 for -10 yards (58-H.Landry).
12.1pts
Taywan TaylorTitansQ4 8:09(8:09) 7-B.Gabbert pass deep right to 13-T.Taylor pushed ob at WAS 40 for 35 yards (31-F.Moreau; 24-J.Norman).
13.6pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Titans won this one — no giveaways, against Commanders at 2 giveaways.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Titans at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Titans won this one — +0.24 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.12 expected points per dropback.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 8 of 14 on third down, against Titans at 5 of 11 on third down.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 18.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 34 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Commanders148 of 160 plays carry both curves
(1:22) (Shotgun) 8-J.Johnson pass deep left intended for 18-J.Doctson INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at TEN 27. 31-K.Byard to TEN 28 for 1 yard (18-J.Doctson).
Swing +20.5 for TitansExpected points +2.83 for TitansThe model had Commanders 12 points higher than the market did.play 149
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:22WAS +20% win prob(1:22) (Shotgun) 8-J.Johnson pass deep left intended for 18-J.Doctson INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at TEN 27. 31-K.Byard to TEN 28 for 1 yard (18-J.Doctson).
4th · 8:09TEN +14% win prob(8:09) 7-B.Gabbert pass deep right to 13-T.Taylor pushed ob at WAS 40 for 35 yards (31-F.Moreau; 24-J.Norman).
4th · 8:56WAS +12% win prob(8:56) (Shotgun) 8-J.Johnson sacked at TEN 28 for -10 yards (58-H.Landry).
3rd · 4:20TEN +9% win prob(4:20) (Shotgun) 7-B.Gabbert pass deep middle to 85-M.Pruitt to TEN 48 for 27 yards (20-H.Clinton-Dix).
4th · 8:14TEN +9% win prob(8:14) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-55-A.East, Holder-5-T.Way.
4th · 5:21TEN +8% win prob(5:21) 22-D.Henry right tackle to WAS 2 for 18 yards (20-H.Clinton-Dix).
4th · 12:24
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
MyCole Pruitt's 2-yard touchdown catch with 4:35 left in the 4th put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st12:14Dustin Hopkins·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap A.East+33–0
1st5:41Derrick Henry·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide left+63–6
Commanders ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Titans, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.02Commanders: −0.02 expected points added per play
+0.07Titans: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.12Commanders: −0.12 expected points added per play
+0.24Titans: +0.24 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.06Commanders: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.12Titans: −0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 59 snaps at a 44% dropback rate against Titans’s 55 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 2, Titans 4.
NoteCommanders outgained Titans 292-291 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 16Against their seasonOver Expected
WAS's pass rate over expected, −15.4 pts, is past their previous low of −10.1 pts in week 7 — the lowest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
2.2 times their own weekly swing below their number.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
TEN's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 33.3% in week 15 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 16.0 points.
WAS's sack or hit rate turned over: 27.6% in week 15 against 13.8% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 13 pts
right on their number · −1.5 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Titans11.5%
right on their number · −1.9 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.26× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteWAS's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -15.4 pts, 13.1 points below their season mean of -2.3 pts and 2.2 times their own 5.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
53 dressed · 8 never used
76Morgan MosesT · Every snap100%62 snaps
69Luke BowankoC · Every snap100%62 snaps
73Chase RoullierC · Every snap100%62 snaps
71Trent WilliamsT · Every snap100%62 snaps
8Josh JohnsonQB · Every snap100%62 snaps
18Josh DoctsonWR · Full-time89%55 snaps
80Jamison CrowderWR · Full-time87%54 snaps
17Michael FloydWR · Full-time85%53 snaps
87Jeremy SprinkleTE · Heavy rotation74%46 snaps
26Adrian PetersonRB · Heavy rotation61%38 snaps
62Kyle FullerC · Heavy rotation53%33 snaps
67Zac KerinOG · Rotational47%29 snaps
88Matt FlanaganTE · Rotational45%28 snaps
25Chris ThompsonRB · Rotational37%23 snaps
61Timon ParrisT · Situational10%6 snaps
34Byron MarshallRB · Situational5%3 snaps
84Darvin KidsyWR · Situational5%3 snaps
52Ryan AndersonOLB · Situational2%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Tony BergstromGColt McCoyQBMark SanchezQBSamaje PerineRBTy NsekheTVernon DavisTEJordan ReedTEMaurice HarrisWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Johnson pass−32% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:22) (Shotgun) 8-J.Johnson pass deep left intended for 18-J.Doctson INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at TEN 27. 31-K.Byard to TEN 28 for 1 yard (18-J.Doctson).
Q4 1:22 · Commanders · 3rd & 3 at TEN 44 · gained nothing · -2.83 EP · −31.9% win probability
146 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 160 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 93 yards from the WAS 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
160 of 160 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
160
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
47%
Yards
583
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.0744%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.0465%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR12-0.248%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.6656%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.4767%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.320%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Commanders2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Commanders3Titans0
Field goal9 plays, from the Commanders 28 to the Titans 32
Commanders3Titans6
Touchdown14 plays, from the Titans 31 to the Commanders 1
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 34
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Commanders 47
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter36 plays
Commanders9Titans6
Commanders10Titans6
Touchdown19 plays, from the Commanders 11 to the Titans 7
Commanders10Titans9
Field goal16 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Commanders 14
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 45
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 7 to the Commanders 10
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 49 to the Commanders 44
Commanders13Titans9
Field goal12 plays, from the Commanders 14 to the Titans 22
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
The period ended11 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Commanders 19
4th quarter45 plays
Commanders13Titans12
Field goal1 play
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSix
Commanders16Titans12
Field goal15 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Titans 18
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Commanders16Titans18
Commanders16Titans19
Touchdown10 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Commanders 2
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Titans 44
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 28 to the Titans 35
Commanders16Titans25
Touchdown2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
