2018 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 30, 2018 · CenturyLink Field

Arizona Cardinals

Seattle SeahawksWinner

SEA -15.5 no coverO 39.5 ✓Seahawks closed -15.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Seattle Seahawks 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 9:15, ARI +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 9:15ARI — SEA ARI ball · 3rd & 10SEA 67%

(9:15) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen sacked at ARI 31 for -9 yards. FUMBLES [55-F.Clark], RECOVERED by SEA-99-Q.Jefferson at ARI 31. 99-Q.Jefferson to ARI 31 for no gain (78-C.Gossett).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 9:15ARI +15% win prob(9:15) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen sacked at ARI 31 for -9 yards. FUMBLES [55-F.Clark], RECOVERED by SEA-99-Q.Jefferson at ARI 31. 99-Q.Jefferson to ARI 31 for no gain (78-C.Gossett).
Q3 · 0:21ARI +14% win prob(:21) 4-M.Dickson punt is BLOCKED by 94-C.Malveaux, Center-69-T.Ott, RECOVERED by ARI-92-D.Gardeck at SEA 0. TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 1:02SEA +11% win prob(1:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at ARI 25 for 37 yards (33-T.Boston).
Q4 · 0:03SEA +10% win prob(:03) 11-S.Janikowski 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	Seahawks
Offensive plays	65	60
Total yards	200	294 (edge)
Yards per play	3.1	4.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.34	-0.13 (edge)
Success rate	29%	37% (edge)
Dropback rate	62%	45%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.53	-0.37 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.05	0.08 (edge)
Third downs	4/17	4/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13	15 (edge)
Sacks taken	6	6
Turnovers	2	2

Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.34.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

12/21, 152 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-10.1 expected points added · -4.6% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Josh RosenQB

18/34, 149 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-21.2 expected points added · -5.3% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Chris CarsonRB

19 att, 122 yds, 1 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

David JohnsonRB

17 att, 62 yds, 0 TD

0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

Chad WilliamsWR

5/11 for 51 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · -0.6 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Larry FitzgeraldWR

4/9 for 36 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · -1.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 25	5	9	1:32	Punt
2	SEA	SEA 19	8	32	3:44	Interception
3	ARI	SEA 28	7	11	2:22	Turnover on downs
4	SEA	SEA 24	5	-4	1:57	Punt
5	ARI	ARI 39	4	9	1:34	Turnover on downs
6	SEA	ARI 47	7	47	2:26	Touchdown
7	ARI	ARI 25	7	9	2:34	Fumble
8	SEA	ARI 34	5	44	2:12	Touchdown
9	ARI	ARI 25	7	20	2:26	Punt
10	SEA	SEA 13	4	-7	2:01	Punt
11	ARI	SEA 27	4	27	1:28	Touchdown
12	SEA	SEA 16	5	-4	2:19	Punt
13	ARI	SEA 21	4	-11	2:13	Turnover on downs
14	SEA	SEA 25	5	0	0:25	Punt
15	ARI	ARI 36	6	31	0:47	End of half
16	SEA	SEA 25	5	6	1:17	Punt
17	ARI	ARI 19	4	13	2:00	Punt
18	SEA	SEA 23	4	-8	1:09	Punt
19	ARI	ARI 39	6	13	3:06	Punt
20	SEA	SEA 2	6	93	2:54	Touchdown
21	ARI	ARI 30	9	8	2:49	Punt
22	SEA	SEA 20	4	5	1:34	Defensive touchdown
23	SEA	SEA 22	7	20	2:44	Punt
24	ARI	ARI 20	5	21	3:29	Fumble
25	SEA	ARI 31	6	7	2:38	Turnover on downs
26	ARI	ARI 25	10	38	4:31	Turnover on downs
27	SEA	SEA 25	9	63	1:49	Turnover on downs

0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 93 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Rosen	18/34	149	1	0	6	-21.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
David Johnson	17	62	3.6	0.2
Chase Edmonds	6	14	2.3	-2.2
Chad Williams	1	9	9.0	0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chad Williams	5	11	51	0	33%	-0.6
Larry Fitzgerald	4	9	36	1	27%	-1.5
John Phillips	2	2	29	0	6%	1.3
Trent Sherfield	2	4	23	0	12%	-0.0
David Johnson	3	4	6	0	12%	-2.1
Chase Edmonds	2	2	4	0	6%	-1.5
Darrell Daniels	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Budda Baker	9	3	0.0
Haason Reddick	4	3	0.0
Deone Bucannon	3	3	1.0
Corey Peters	2	4	0.5
Gerald Hodges	3	2	0.0
Rodney Gunter	4	1	2.0
Zach Moore	0	4	0.5
Antoine Bethea	4	0	1.0
Chandler Jones	3	1	1.0
Tre Boston	2	0	0.0

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	12/21	152	1	1	6	-10.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chris Carson	19	122	6.4	1	0.7
Mike Davis	7	44	6.3	1	2.6
Ed Dickson	1	9	9.0	0	1.9
Rashaad Penny	4	6	1.5	0	-2.0
Tyler Lockett	1	3	3.0	0	-0.0
Russell Wilson	2	-2	-1.0	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Lockett	2	2	66	1	10%	6.0
Doug Baldwin	2	5	27	0	25%	0.5
Nick Vannett	2	3	17	0	15%	-0.4
David Moore	2	4	16	0	20%	-6.1
Mike Davis	2	3	12	0	15%	-0.3
Chris Carson	1	1	7	0	5%	0.8
Jaron Brown	1	2	7	0	10%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Bobby Wagner	9	3	0.0
K.J. Wright	2	5	0.0
Shaquill Griffin	3	2	0.0
Poona Ford	1	4	0.0
Delano Hill	3	1	0.0
Akeem King	3	1	0.0
Jarran Reed	3	0	2.0
Quinton Jefferson	1	2	1.0
Tre Flowers	3	0	0.0
Jake Martin	2	0	1.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SEA -15.5
Closing total: 39.5
ARI moneyline: +603
SEA moneyline: -822

Seahawks closed -15.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 39.5; the game landed 51 — over by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: CenturyLink Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 45°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: ARI 7 days · SEA 7 days
Coaches: Steve Wilks vs Pete Carroll

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.