For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:48 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 30, 2018 · CenturyLink Field
Final
CardinalsArizona24
BY 3final margin
SeahawksSeattle27
Arizona Cardinals 24 at Seattle Seahawks 27. Final.
Seahawks -15.5 no coverO 39.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 17
Seattle Seahawks 27, Cardinals 24 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 9:15, 3rd and 10, on Josh Rosen — 15.4 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 9:15 · 3rd and 10
Josh Rosen
Seahawks
(9:15) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen sacked at ARI 31 for -9 yards. FUMBLES [55-F.Clark], RECOVERED by SEA-99-Q.Jefferson at ARI 31. 99-Q.Jefferson to ARI 31 for no gain (78-C.Gossett).
Seahawks closed -15.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Seattle Seahawks 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 9:15, Seahawks +15.4% win probability on one snap.
15.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetCardinalsQ3 0:21(:21) 4-M.Dickson punt is BLOCKED by 94-C.Malveaux, Center-69-T.Ott, RECOVERED by ARI-92-D.Gardeck at SEA 0. TOUCHDOWN.
13.8pts
Tyler LockettSeahawksQ4 1:02(1:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at ARI 25 for 37 yards (33-T.Boston).
10.9pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Seahawks won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 2 chunk plays.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Seahawks won this one — -0.13 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at -0.34 expected points per snap.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Seahawks won this one — 37% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 29% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.08 expected points per carry, against Cardinals at -0.05 expected points per carry.
Doug BaldwinSeahawksRole5 targets, 25% of the throws — 2 for 27.
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 20.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 38 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Cardinals165 of 175 plays carry both curves
(9:15) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen sacked at ARI 31 for -9 yards. FUMBLES [55-F.Clark], RECOVERED by SEA-99-Q.Jefferson at ARI 31. 99-Q.Jefferson to ARI 31 for no gain (78-C.Gossett).
Swing +15.4 for SeahawksExpected points +4.33 for SeahawksThe model had Cardinals 11 points higher than the market did.play 146
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 9:15ARI +15% win prob(9:15) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen sacked at ARI 31 for -9 yards. FUMBLES [55-F.Clark], RECOVERED by SEA-99-Q.Jefferson at ARI 31. 99-Q.Jefferson to ARI 31 for no gain (78-C.Gossett).
3rd · 0:21ARI +14% win prob(:21) 4-M.Dickson punt is BLOCKED by 94-C.Malveaux, Center-69-T.Ott, RECOVERED by ARI-92-D.Gardeck at SEA 0. TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:02SEA +11% win prob(1:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at ARI 25 for 37 yards (33-T.Boston).
4th · 0:03SEA +10% win prob(:03) 11-S.Janikowski 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
4th · 1:54SEA +10% win prob(1:54) 5-Z.Gonzalez 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.
1st · 1:31SEA +8% win prob(1:31) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Sebastian Janikowski's 33-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st7:25Zane Gonzalez·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+33–0
1st1:31Tyler Lockett·29-yd TD catch29-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+73–7
3rd0:21Dennis Gardeck·return TDreturn touchdownon the kickon the kick · two-point good+821–21
4th6:25Sebastian Janikowski·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+321–24
4th1:54Zane Gonzalez·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+324–24
4th0:03Sebastian Janikowski·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.OttLead never changed again+324–27
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cardinalscategory by categorySeahawks
Cardinals0–7Seahawks
200Total yards294
3.1Yards per play4.9
29%Success rate37%
24%Third-down rate29%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
2Explosive plays6
13First downs15
6Sacks taken6
2Turnovers2
The read
Seahawks ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.34Cardinals: −0.34 expected points added per play
−0.13Seahawks: −0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.53Cardinals: −0.53 expected points added per play
−0.37Seahawks: −0.37 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.05Cardinals: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.08Seahawks: +0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 65 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 60 at 45%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 2, Seahawks 5.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.34.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SEA's pass rate over expected turned over: −5.4 pts in week 16 against −17.7 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 12 pts
leaned — got home · +9.8 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.50× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Seahawks20.0%
right on their number · +2.5 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteARI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.9%, 9.8 points above their season mean of 16.1% and 1.5 times their own 6.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Wilson pass−18% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(9:53) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right intended for 83-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 38-D.Amerson at ARI 47. 38-D.Amerson to SEA 28 for 25 yards (32-C.Carson).
Q1 9:53 · Seahawks · 3rd & 3 at ARI 49 · gained nothing · -6.16 EP · −17.5% win probability
163 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 98 yards from the SEA 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
-0.21
Success rate
34%
Yards
491
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.4467%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.2154%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.2133%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.1140%
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.1460%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Seahawks 19 to the Cardinals 49
Cardinals3Seahawks0
Field goal7 plays, from the Seahawks 28 to the Seahawks 16
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 24 to the Seahawks 28
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.0 seconds
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Cardinals 39 to the Cardinals 48
Cardinals3Seahawks6
Cardinals3Seahawks7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cardinals 47 to the Cardinals 29
The period ended5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 32
2nd quarter48 plays
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Cardinals 36 to the Cardinals 41
Cardinals3Seahawks13
Cardinals3Seahawks14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cardinals 34 to the Cardinals 7
Punt8 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 45
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 13 to the Seahawks 14
Cardinals9Seahawks14
Cardinals10Seahawks14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Seahawks 27 to the Seahawks 15
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 16 to the Seahawks 20
Cardinals13Seahawks14
Field goal4 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 32
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
The period ended8 plays, from the Cardinals 36 to the Seahawks 30
3rd quarter45 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 31
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 19 to the Cardinals 27
Punt4 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 39 to the Seahawks 44
Cardinals13Seahawks20
Cardinals13Seahawks21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 2 to the Cardinals 17
Punt9 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Cardinals 46
Cardinals19Seahawks21
Touchdown4 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 25
Cardinals21Seahawks21
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 26 to the Seahawks 42
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSix
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Cardinals 42
Cardinals21Seahawks24
Field goal6 plays, from the Cardinals 31 to the Cardinals 20
Cardinals24Seahawks24
Field goal10 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Seahawks 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.1 seconds
Cardinals24Seahawks27
Field goal12 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Cardinals 12
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
