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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:44 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 30, 2018 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
FalconsAtlanta34
BY 2final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay32
Atlanta Falcons 34 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32. Final.
Falcons -2.5 no coverO 52 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 17
Atlanta Falcons 34, Buccaneers 32 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:04, 4th and 13, on Matt Bryant — 32.6 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:04 · 4th and 13
Matt Bryant
Falcons
(:04) 3-M.Bryant 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
Falcons closed -2.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Atlanta Falcons 34–32 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:04, Falcons +32.6% win probability on one snap.
32.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Andrew AdamsBuccaneersQ4 6:05(6:05) 2-M.Ryan pass short right intended for 14-J.Hardy INTERCEPTED by 26-A.Adams at ATL 47. 26-A.Adams to ATL 34 for 13 yards (14-J.Hardy).
23.9pts
Julio JonesFalconsQ4 1:53(1:53) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones to TB 16 for 16 yards (36-M.Stewart).
21.1pts
What separated them
Third down
Falcons won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Buccaneers at 4 of 10 on third down.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Falcons won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 6 chunk plays.
6 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Falcons174 of 186 plays carry both curves
(:04) 3-M.Bryant 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
Swing −32.6 for BuccaneersExpected points −0.33 for BuccaneersModel and market agree here.play 185
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:04TB +33% win prob(:04) 3-M.Bryant 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
4th · 6:05ATL +24% win prob(6:05) 2-M.Ryan pass short right intended for 14-J.Hardy INTERCEPTED by 26-A.Adams at ATL 47. 26-A.Adams to ATL 34 for 13 yards (14-J.Hardy).
4th · 1:53TB +21% win prob(1:53) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones to TB 16 for 16 yards (36-M.Stewart).
3rd · 1:27ATL +14% win prob(1:27) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 27-D.Kazee (21-D.Trufant) at TB 45. 27-D.Kazee to TB 43 for 2 yards (32-J.Rodgers).
3rd · 3:57TB +14% win prob(3:57) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 12-M.Sanu to TB 34 for 32 yards (31-J.Whitehead).
4th · 2:10ATL +11% win prob(2:10) 43-J.Langford right end to TB 20 for 11 yards (24-B.Grimes). PENALTY on ATL-11-J.Jones, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TB 30.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Matt Bryant's 37-yard field goal with 0:04 left in the 4th put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:04Matt Bryant·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder M.Bosher · snap J.CondoLead never changed again+334–32
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Falcons4–2Buccaneers
492Total yards433
6.7Yards per play7.5
51%Success rate52%
50%Third-down rate40%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays6
26First downs22
1Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
Falcons ahead 4–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.21Falcons: +0.21 expected points added per play
+0.15Buccaneers: +0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.39Falcons: +0.39 expected points added per play
+0.28Buccaneers: +0.28 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Falcons: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.12Buccaneers: −0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 73 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 58 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 5, Buccaneers 5.
NoteFalcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs 0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −1.2 vs their 11.5%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Buccaneers10.6%
inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was TB's sack or hit rate, 10.6% against a season mean of 15.5% — and TB swings 6.3 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Matt Bryant+34% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:04) 3-M.Bryant 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
Q4 0:04 · Falcons · 4th & 13 at TB 19 · gained nothing · +0.33 EP · +34.3% win probability
172 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 186 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 93 yards from the TB 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
48%
Yards
922
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.3069%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.5270%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13+0.1546%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.3450%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.0960%
Falcons0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR4——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Falcons1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 28 to the Buccaneers 33
Punt9 plays, from the Falcons 24 to midfield
Falcons0Buccaneers6
Falcons0Buccaneers7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Buccaneers 7 to the Falcons 19
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 21 to the Falcons 30
The period ended5 plays, from the Buccaneers 21 to the Buccaneers 37
2nd quarter53 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Buccaneers 44 to the Buccaneers 46
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 13 to the Falcons 21
Falcons0Buccaneers10
Field goal9 plays, from the Buccaneers 47 to the Falcons 14
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 23 to the Falcons 48
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 12 to the Buccaneers 26
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Falcons 43
Falcons0Buccaneers16
Falcons0Buccaneers17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Falcons 30
Falcons6Buccaneers17
Falcons7Buccaneers17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Buccaneers 19
The period ended5 plays, from the Buccaneers 29 to the Falcons 46
3rd quarter46 plays
Falcons13Buccaneers17
Falcons14Buccaneers17
Touchdown16 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Buccaneers 5
Falcons14Buccaneers20
Field goal7 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Falcons 27
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Falcons17Buccaneers20
Field goal11 plays, from the Falcons 27 to the Buccaneers 31
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Buccaneers 27 to the Buccaneers 32
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Falcons23Buccaneers20
Falcons24Buccaneers20
Touchdown5 plays, from the Buccaneers 43 to the Buccaneers 23
The period ended4 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 31
4th quarter48 plays
Punt2 plays
Falcons30Buccaneers20
Falcons31Buccaneers20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Buccaneers 7
Falcons31Buccaneers26
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Falcons 10
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.8 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Falcons 26 to the Falcons 37
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Falcons31Buccaneers32
Touchdown3 plays, from the Falcons 34 to the Falcons 19
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
Falcons34Buccaneers32
Field goal20 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Buccaneers 16
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
