2018 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 30, 2018 · Raymond James Stadium

Atlanta FalconsWinner

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

ATL -2.5 no coverO 52 ✓Falcons closed -2.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Atlanta Falcons 34–32 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:04, TB +33% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:04ATL — TB ATL ball · 4th & 13ATL 67%

(:04) 3-M.Bryant 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:04TB +33% win prob(:04) 3-M.Bryant 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
Q4 · 6:05ATL +24% win prob(6:05) 2-M.Ryan pass short right intended for 14-J.Hardy INTERCEPTED by 26-A.Adams at ATL 47. 26-A.Adams to ATL 34 for 13 yards (14-J.Hardy).
Q4 · 1:53TB +21% win prob(1:53) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones to TB 16 for 16 yards (36-M.Stewart).
Q3 · 1:27ATL +14% win prob(1:27) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 27-D.Kazee (21-D.Trufant) at TB 45. 27-D.Kazee to TB 43 for 2 yards (32-J.Rodgers).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	73	58
Total yards	492 (edge)	433
Yards per play	6.7	7.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.21 (edge)	0.15
Success rate	51%	52% (edge)
Dropback rate	64%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.39 (edge)	0.28
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.12	-0.12 (edge)
Third downs	6/12 (edge)	4/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	26 (edge)	22
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	1	1

Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs 0.15.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

31/44, 378 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

14.3 expected points added · +7.8% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Jameis WinstonQB

22/35, 345 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

8.6 expected points added · +5.0% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Peyton BarberRB

15 att, 66 yds, 0 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Tevin ColemanRB

8 att, 45 yds, 1 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Julio JonesWR

9/13 for 138 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 10.9 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Chris GodwinWR

6/9 for 114 yds, 2 TD

28% of team targets · 5.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 28	5	5	1:02	Punt
2	ATL	ATL 24	8	36	3:42	Punt
3	TB	TB 7	13	103	6:28	Touchdown
4	ATL	ATL 21	5	9	1:44	Punt
5	TB	TB 21	7	25	2:51	Punt
6	ATL	ATL 13	4	8	1:32	Punt
7	TB	TB 47	9	35	4:16	Turnover on downs
8	ATL	ATL 23	7	31	3:19	Punt
9	TB	TB 12	4	7	2:11	Punt
10	ATL	ATL 30	5	13	1:13	Punt
11	TB	TB 30	5	70	0:56	Touchdown
12	ATL	ATL 25	7	75	0:26	Touchdown
13	TB	TB 29	3	25	0:20	End of half
14	ATL	ATL 25	16	60	6:11	Touchdown
15	TB	TB 25	7	48	2:10	Turnover on downs
16	ATL	ATL 27	11	62	4:40	Turnover on downs
17	TB	TB 27	3	5	0:40	Interception
18	ATL	TB 43	4	38	0:35	Touchdown
19	TB	TB 25	5	6	0:54	Punt
20	ATL	ATL 25	8	75	3:59	Touchdown
21	TB	TB 25	8	70	2:42	Touchdown
22	ATL	ATL 26	5	11	2:15	Interception
23	TB	ATL 34	3	34	0:44	Touchdown
24	ATL	ATL 25	14	74	5:10	Turnover on downs

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 103 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	31/44	378	2	1	1	14.3
Mohamed Sanu	1/1	5	1	0	0	2.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Tevin Coleman	8	45	5.6	1	0.7
Brian Hill	8	30	3.8	0	-1.5
Jeremy Langford	9	25	2.8	0	-2.8
Matt Ryan	4	7	1.8	0	0.6
Mohamed Sanu	1	2	2.0	0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Julio Jones	9	13	138	1	30%	10.9
Mohamed Sanu	7	10	90	0	23%	4.3
Austin Hooper	5	6	67	0	14%	2.5
Calvin Ridley	5	5	32	1	12%	2.1
Logan Paulsen	1	1	19	0	2%	1.7
Russell Gage	2	2	14	0	5%	2.4
Tevin Coleman	1	1	9	0	2%	0.5
Brian Hill	1	1	9	0	2%	-1.1
Matt Ryan	1	1	5	1	2%	2.7
Justin Hardy	0	2	0	0	5%	-6.6
Marvin Hall	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
De'Vondre Campbell	5	2	0	0
Foyesade Oluokun	3	3	0	0
Deion Jones	3	1	0	0
Damontae Kazee	3	1	1	1
Sharrod Neasman	2	1	0	1
Brian Poole	2	1	0	0
Robert Alford	3	0	0	1
Desmond Trufant	2	0	0	2
Grady Jarrett	1	1	0	0
Russell Gage	1	0	0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jameis Winston	22/35	345	4	1	1	8.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Peyton Barber	15	66	4.4	-0.4
Jameis Winston	2	23	11.5	3.1
Jacquizz Rodgers	3	3	1.0	-2.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Godwin	6	9	114	2	28%	5.2
Mike Evans	6	8	106	2	25%	5.3
Adam Humphries	5	6	66	0	19%	3.0
Cameron Brate	2	4	39	0	13%	0.1
Bobo Wilson	1	1	16	0	3%	0.8
Peyton Barber	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.4
Jacquizz Rodgers	1	1	2	0	3%	-1.2
Antony Auclair	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6
Justin Watson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Lavonte David	7	3	0.0	0	0
Adarius Taylor	4	3	0.0	0	0
Javien Elliott	5	0	0.0	0	0
Brent Grimes	5	0	0.0	0	3
Andrew Adams	3	1	0.0	1	2
Isaiah Johnson	3	1	0.0	0	1
Ryan Smith	3	1	0.0	0	1
Jason Pierre-Paul	4	0	1.0	0	0
M.J. Stewart	3	0	0.0	0	0
Jordan Whitehead	3	0	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ATL -2.5
Closing total: 52
ATL moneyline: -142
TB moneyline: +129

Falcons closed -2.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 52; the game landed 66 — over by 14.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 80°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: ATL 7 days · TB 7 days
Coaches: Dan Quinn vs Dirk Koetter

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.