2018 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 30, 2018 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Carolina PanthersWinner

New Orleans Saints

NO -8 upsetO 42 ✓DomeSaints closed -8 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Carolina Panthers 33–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 3:33, NO +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 3:33CAR — NO CAR ball · 3rd & 8NO 60%

(3:33) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 10-C.Samuel. PENALTY on NO-25-E.Apple, Defensive Pass Interference, 39 yards, enforced at CAR 36 - No Play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 3:33NO +11% win prob(3:33) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 10-C.Samuel. PENALTY on NO-25-E.Apple, Defensive Pass Interference, 39 yards, enforced at CAR 36 - No Play.
Q2 · 8:16NO +8% win prob(8:16) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass deep left to 12-D.Moore pushed ob at NO 42 for 38 yards (23-M.Lattimore) [24-V.Bell]. Pass 35, YAC 3
Q1 · 2:14NO +7% win prob(2:14) 34-C.Artis-Payne left guard for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 10:29NO +6% win prob(10:29) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short middle to 12-D.Moore for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short middle to 12-D.Moore to NO 1 for 19 yards (43-M.Williams). Pass 5, YAC 14

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Saints
Offensive plays	68	51
Total yards	374 (edge)	294
Yards per play	5.5	5.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.08 (edge)	-0.13
Success rate	46% (edge)	37%
Dropback rate	50%	53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.36 (edge)	-0.29
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.19	0.04 (edge)
Third downs	6/13 (edge)	4/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	1	1

Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Kyle AllenQB

16/27, 228 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

10.9 expected points added · -3.4% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Teddy BridgewaterQB

14/22, 118 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-7.1 expected points added · -4.3% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Dwayne WashingtonRB

11 att, 108 yds, 0 TD

1.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Cameron Artis-PayneRB

16 att, 56 yds, 1 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

D.J. MooreWR

4/8 for 81 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 2.7 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Curtis SamuelWR

2/4 for 72 yds, 1 TD

13% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 25	12	79	4:56	Turnover on downs
2	NO	NO 25	8	39	3:06	Touchdown
3	CAR	CAR 11	10	50	4:51	Touchdown
4	NO	NO 25	14	65	7:22	Turnover on downs
5	CAR	CAR 10	17	85	7:45	Touchdown
6	NO	NO 25	5	-8	0:32	Punt
7	CAR	CAR 30	7	36	1:28	Turnover on downs
8	NO	NO 25	7	19	2:54	Punt
9	CAR	CAR 24	4	0	1:35	Punt
10	NO	NO 20	4	3	1:40	Punt
11	CAR	CAR 23	4	0	1:29	Punt
12	NO	NO 28	4	2	1:02	Punt
13	CAR	CAR 25	6	75	2:34	Touchdown
14	NO	NO 25	11	85	5:18	Touchdown
15	CAR	CAR 25	10	37	5:11	Turnover on downs
16	NO	NO 25	4	14	1:29	Interception
17	CAR	CAR 48	4	9	1:38	Turnover on downs
18	NO	NO 43	5	57	1:23	Touchdown
19	CAR	CAR 25	5	2	1:59	Punt
20	NO	NO 32	3	19	1:48	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 85 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyle Allen	16/27	228	2	0	0	10.9
Garrett Gilbert	2/3	40	0	0	1	-0.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Cameron Artis-Payne	16	56	3.5	1	-0.6
Kyle Allen	5	19	3.8	1	1.6
Christian McCaffrey	4	18	4.5	0	1.3
Travaris Cadet	11	17	1.5	0	-7.8
Alex Armah	1	1	1.0	0	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Moore	4	8	81	0	27%	2.7
Curtis Samuel	2	4	72	1	13%	4.1
Ian Thomas	5	7	61	1	23%	4.2
Christian McCaffrey	1	1	22	0	3%	2.2
Jarius Wright	2	4	20	0	13%	2.3
Travaris Cadet	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.7
Alex Armah	1	1	5	0	3%	0.1
Cameron Artis-Payne	2	2	2	0	7%	-1.5
Torrey Smith	0	2	0	0	7%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Donte Jackson	6	3	0.0	0	0
James Bradberry	6	1	0.0	0	0
Eric Reid	3	2	0.0	0	0
David Mayo	2	3	0.0	0	0
Jermaine Carter	2	2	0.0	0	0
Thomas Davis	3	1	0.0	0	0
Julius Peppers	3	0	1.0	0	1
Rashaan Gaulden	1	2	0.0	0	1
Andre Smith	1	1	0.0	0	0
Colin Jones	0	2	0.0	1	1

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Teddy Bridgewater	14/22	118	1	1	2	-7.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Dwayne Washington	11	108	9.8	0	1.7
Mark Ingram	5	28	5.6	0	-1.1
Zach Line	3	19	6.3	0	-0.1
Teddy Bridgewater	4	12	3.0	0	-0.9
Taysom Hill	3	11	3.7	1	1.0
Tommylee Lewis	1	6	6.0	0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tre'Quan Smith	3	4	30	1	19%	0.4
Michael Thomas	5	7	29	0	33%	0.1
Benjamin Watson	2	3	29	0	14%	-2.6
Mark Ingram	2	2	15	0	10%	-0.0
Tommylee Lewis	1	1	12	0	5%	1.2
Taysom Hill	1	1	3	0	5%	-1.3
Zach Line	0	1	0	0	5%	-1.5
Josh Hill	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.5
Austin Carr	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast
Vonn Bell	5	2
A.J. Klein	4	2
Alex Anzalone	5	1
Manti Te'o	3	2
Demario Davis	1	3
Craig Robertson	2	1
Justin Hardee	3	0
Marcus Williams	3	0
Trey Hendrickson	3	0
Taylor Stallworth	2	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -8
Closing total: 42
CAR moneyline: +276
NO moneyline: -314

Saints closed -8 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 42; the game landed 47 — over by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: CAR 7 days · NO 7 days
Coaches: Ron Rivera vs Sean Payton

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.