For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:44 AM ET · 16 to play
Carolina Panthers 33 at New Orleans Saints 14. Final.
Saints -8 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 17
Carolina Panthers 33, Saints 14 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 3:33, 3rd and 8, on Kyle Allen — 10.9 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 3:33 · 3rd and 8
Kyle Allen
Panthers
(3:33) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 10-C.Samuel. PENALTY on NO-25-E.Apple, Defensive Pass Interference, 39 yards, enforced at CAR 36 - No Play.
O 42 ✓
Dome
Saints closed -8 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Carolina Panthers 33–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 3:33, Panthers +10.9% win probability on one snap.
10.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Cameron Artis-PaynePanthersQ1 2:14(2:14) 34-C.Artis-Payne left guard for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.2pts
D.J. MoorePanthersQ2 8:16(8:16) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass deep left to 12-D.Moore pushed ob at NO 42 for 38 yards (23-M.Lattimore) [24-V.Bell]. Pass 35, YAC 3
8.3pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Panthers won this one — +0.36 expected points per dropback, against Saints at -0.29 expected points per dropback.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Panthers won this one — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Saints at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Saints owned this one and still lost it — +0.04 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.19 expected points per carry.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Panthers won this one — +0.08 expected points per snap, against Saints at -0.13 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Panthers154 of 163 plays carry both curves
(3:33) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 10-C.Samuel. PENALTY on NO-25-E.Apple, Defensive Pass Interference, 39 yards, enforced at CAR 36 - No Play.
Swing −10.9 for SaintsExpected points −4.05 for SaintsThe model had Panthers 26 points higher than the market did.play 30
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 3:33NO +11% win prob(3:33) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 10-C.Samuel. PENALTY on NO-25-E.Apple, Defensive Pass Interference, 39 yards, enforced at CAR 36 - No Play.
2nd · 8:16NO +8% win prob(8:16) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass deep left to 12-D.Moore pushed ob at NO 42 for 38 yards (23-M.Lattimore) [24-V.Bell]. Pass 35, YAC 3
1st · 2:14NO +7% win prob(2:14) 34-C.Artis-Payne left guard for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:29NO +6% win prob(10:29) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short middle to 12-D.Moore for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short middle to 12-D.Moore to NO 1 for 19 yards (43-M.Williams). Pass 5, YAC 14
1st · 14:26NO +6% win prob(14:26) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short right to 12-D.Moore to CAR 37 for 15 yards (43-M.Williams). Pass 15, YAC 0
2nd · 10:13CAR +5% win prob(10:13) 22-M.Ingram left end to CAR 10 for -1 yards (90-J.Peppers).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kyle Allen's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 10:17 left in the 1st put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:17Kyle Allen·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
1st2:14Cameron Artis-Payne·15-yd TD run15-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, hit left upright+613–0
Panthers ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Panthers: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.13Saints: −0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.36Panthers: +0.36 expected points added per play
−0.29Saints: −0.29 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.19Panthers: −0.19 expected points added per play
+0.04Saints: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 68 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Saints’s 51 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 6, Saints 3.
NotePanthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 17Against their seasonOver Expected
NO's pass rate over expected, −20.0 pts, is past their previous low of −9.3 pts in week 7 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
2.4 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 3.3-swing turn from week 16.
51 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
NO's early-down pass rate turned over: 68.8% in week 16 against 42.5% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.9 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Saints20.6%
inside their normal wobble · +5.2 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNO's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -20.0 pts, 18.2 points below their season mean of -1.8 pts and 2.4 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
53 dressed · 8 never used
69Tyler LarsenC · Every snap100%72 snaps
73Greg Van RotenG · Every snap100%72 snaps
72Taylor MotonT · Every snap100%72 snaps
67Ryan KalilC · Every snap100%72 snaps
12D.J. MooreWR · Full-time82%59 snaps
7Kyle AllenQB · Full-time82%59 snaps
80Ian ThomasTE · Heavy rotation78%56 snaps
74Chris ClarkOT · Heavy rotation68%49 snaps
82Chris ManhertzTE · Heavy rotation61%44 snaps
10Curtis SamuelWR · Heavy rotation56%40 snaps
34Cameron Artis-PayneRB · Heavy rotation53%38 snaps
14Mose FrazierWR · Rotational46%33 snaps
71Marshall NewhouseT · Rotational35%25 snaps
38Travaris CadetRB · Rotational33%24 snaps
13Jarius WrightWR · Rotational31%22 snaps
11Torrey SmithWR · Rotational28%20 snaps
3Garrett GilbertQB · Situational18%13 snaps
40Alex ArmahRB · Situational17%12 snaps
22Christian McCaffreyRB · Situational14%10 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Lorenzo DossCBEfe ObadaDEKawann ShortDTTrai TurnerGDorian JohnsonOGCam NewtonQBJason Vander LaanTEDevin FunchessWR
New Orleans Saints
53 dressed · 8 never used
63Cameron TomC · Every snap100%52 snaps
78Cornelius LucasT · Every snap100%52 snaps
64Will ClappC · Every snap100%52 snaps
60Max UngerC · Every snap100%52 snaps
5Teddy BridgewaterQB · Every snap100%52 snaps
77Derek NewtonOT · Full-time92%48 snaps
13Michael ThomasWR · Heavy rotation79%41 snaps
10Tre'Quan SmithWR · Heavy rotation77%40 snaps
89Josh HillTE · Heavy rotation73%38 snaps
82Benjamin WatsonTE · Heavy rotation52%27 snaps
27Dwayne WashingtonRB · Rotational46%24 snaps
22Mark IngramRB · Rotational37%19 snaps
42Zach LineFB · Rotational33%17 snaps
18Keith KirkwoodWR · Rotational29%15 snaps
85Dan ArnoldTE · Situational21%11 snaps
80Austin CarrWR · Situational21%11 snaps
11Tommylee LewisWR · Situational17%9 snaps
7Taysom HillQB · Situational15%8 snaps
75Andrus PeatT · Situational8%4 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Larry WarfordGDrew BreesQBAlvin KamaraRBRyan RamczykTTerron ArmsteadTJermon BushrodTSimmie CobbsWRTed GinnWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Allen pass+8% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(3:33) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 10-C.Samuel. PENALTY on NO-25-E.Apple, Defensive Pass Interference, 39 yards, enforced at CAR 36 - No Play.
Q1 3:33 · Panthers · 3rd & 8 at CAR 36 · gained nothing · +4.05 EP · +7.8% win probability
152 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 90 yards from the CAR 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
40%
Yards
668
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.0945%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.0747%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.0661%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR15-0.2167%
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9+0.1033%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.200%
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.7120%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Drive ended12 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Saints 20
Panthers6Saints0
Touchdown1 play
Panthers7Saints0
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Panthers 37
Panthers13Saints0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Panthers 11 to the Saints 15
The period ended6 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Panthers 47
2nd quarter47 plays
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Panthers 48 to the Panthers 9
Panthers19Saints0
Panthers20Saints0
Touchdown20 plays, from the Panthers 10 to the Saints 8
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 30
Panthers23Saints0
Field goal9 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Saints 4
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 44
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 24 to the Panthers 25
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Saints 23
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 28 to the Saints 30
Panthers29Saints0
Panthers30Saints0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 47
The period ended9 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Panthers 30
4th quarter38 plays
Panthers30Saints6
Panthers30Saints7
Touchdown5 plays
Panthers33Saints7
Field goal11 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Saints 30
Intercepted4 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 39
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Panthers 48 to the Saints 43
Panthers33Saints13
Panthers33Saints14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Saints 43 to the Panthers 9
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 30
The period ended4 plays, from the Saints 32 to the Saints 47
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
