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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:02 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 30, 2018 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
BearsChicago24
BY 14final margin
VikingsMinnesota10
Chicago Bears 24 at Minnesota Vikings 10. Final.
Vikings -6 upsetU 39.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 17
Chicago Bears 24, Vikings 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 2:38, 4th and 1, on Dalvin Cook — 12.3 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 2:38 · 4th and 1
Dalvin Cook
Vikings
(2:38) 33-D.Cook right guard to CHI 2 for 2 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski; 94-L.Floyd).
Dome
Vikings closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Chicago Bears 24–10. Biggest swing: Q3 2:38, Vikings +12.3% win probability on one snap.
12.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Taylor GabrielBearsQ2 7:43(7:43) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left to 18-T.Gabriel for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left to 18-T.Gabriel to MIN 1 for 40 yards (24-H.Hill).
11.5pts
Javon WimsBearsQ4 14:54(14:54) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 83-J.Wims to MIN 38 for 16 yards (26-T.Waynes).
12.0pts
What separated them
Third down
Bears won this one — 8 of 15 on third down, against Vikings at 1 of 11 on third down.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bears won this one — +0.07 expected points per snap, against Vikings at -0.44 expected points per snap.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bears won this one — +0.14 expected points per dropback, against Vikings at -0.60 expected points per dropback.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bears won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Vikings at 2 chunk plays.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Bears152 of 163 plays carry both curves
(2:38) 33-D.Cook right guard to CHI 2 for 2 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski; 94-L.Floyd).
Swing +12.3 for VikingsExpected points +2.16 for VikingsThe model had Bears 7 points higher than the market did.play 106
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 2:38MIN +12% win prob(2:38) 33-D.Cook right guard to CHI 2 for 2 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski; 94-L.Floyd).
4th · 14:54MIN +12% win prob(14:54) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 83-J.Wims to MIN 38 for 16 yards (26-T.Waynes).
2nd · 7:43MIN +11% win prob(7:43) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left to 18-T.Gabriel for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left to 18-T.Gabriel to MIN 1 for 40 yards (24-H.Hill).
1st · 13:39MIN +10% win prob(13:39) 24-J.Howard right tackle ran ob at MIN 22 for 42 yards (99-D.Hunter).
2nd · 13:15MIN +9% win prob(13:15) 6-M.Wile punts 65 yards to CHI 32, Center-47-K.McDermott. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 30 for -2 yards (50-E.Wilson; 40-K.Brothers). PENALTY on CHI-16-P.O'Donnell, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 30. Bench interfered with the official
2nd · 13:34CHI +7% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jordan Howard's 6-yard rushing touchdown with 10:43 left in the 1st put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:43Jordan Howard·6-yd TD run6-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
2nd7:20Jordan Howard·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, hit right upright+613–0
2nd0:58Dan Bailey·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder M.Wile · snap K.McDermott+313–3
4th4:29Cody Parkey·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+324–10
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryVikings
Bears8–0Vikings
335Total yards164
5.3Yards per play3.2
40%Success rate33%
53%Third-down rate9%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays2
16First downs9
0Sacks taken4
0Turnovers0
The read
Bears ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.60 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Bears: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.44Vikings: −0.44 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.14Bears: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.60Vikings: −0.60 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.02Bears: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.00Vikings: +0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 63 snaps at a 46% dropback rate against Vikings’s 52 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Bears 3, Vikings 1.
NoteBears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.44.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CHI's early-down pass rate, 32.6%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 3.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 39.4% in week 9.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 23 pts
leaned — got home · +6.3 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+1.09× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Vikings3.4%
leaned — stayed blocked · −11.0 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−1.23× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCHI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 32.6%, 20.6 points below their season mean of 53.2% and 1.9 times their own 10.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Trubisky pass+12% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(14:54) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 83-J.Wims to MIN 38 for 16 yards (26-T.Waynes).
Q4 14:54 · Bears · 3rd & 6 at CHI 46 · gained 16 · +2.25 EP · +11.6% win probability
150 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 92 yards from the MIN 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
35%
Yards
498
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.4574%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25-0.1840%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23+0.4035%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.3217%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.1780%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 28
Bears6Vikings0
Bears7Vikings0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bears 29 to the Vikings 6
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 32
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 29 to the Bears 33
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 32
The period ended8 plays, from the Bears 12 to the Bears 38
2nd quarter47 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt4 plays
Bears13Vikings0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bears 15 to the Vikings 1
Punt9 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 41
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 12 to the Bears 19
Bears13Vikings3
Field goal10 plays, from the Vikings 36 to the Bears 27
The period ended4 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 27
3rd quarter32 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Vikings 45
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsIn the boxNine defenders
Bears13Vikings9
Bears13Vikings10
Touchdown15 plays, from the Vikings 8 to the Bears 2
The period ended6 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 42
4th quarter49 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Bears19Vikings10
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bears 46 to the Vikings 3
Bears21Vikings10
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 32
Bears24Vikings10
Field goal4 plays, from the Vikings 32 to the Vikings 23
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 37
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Vikings 37 to the Vikings 31
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Vikings 32 to the Bears 28
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Vikings -6
Closing total
39.5
Bears moneyline
+205
Vikings moneyline
-230
Vikings closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 39.5; the game landed 34 — under by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Bears 7 days · Vikings 7 days
Coaches
Matt Nagy vs Mike Zimmer
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
(13:34) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 3 for -7 yards (sack split by 96-A.Hicks and 95-R.Robertson-Harris). Penalty on MIN-79-T.Compton, Offensive Holding, declined.
4th · 7:50MIN +6% win prob(7:50) (Shotgun) 29-T.Cohen up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 11:32MIN +6% win prob(11:32) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 80-T.Burton ran ob at MIN 20 for 9 yards.
