2018 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 30, 2018 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Chicago BearsWinner

Minnesota Vikings

MIN -6 upsetU 39.5 ✓DomeVikings closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Chicago Bears 24–10. Biggest swing: Q3 2:38, MIN +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 2:38CHI — MIN MIN ball · 4th & 1CHI 70%

(2:38) 33-D.Cook right guard to CHI 2 for 2 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski; 94-L.Floyd).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 2:38MIN +12% win prob(2:38) 33-D.Cook right guard to CHI 2 for 2 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski; 94-L.Floyd).
Q4 · 14:54MIN +12% win prob(14:54) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 83-J.Wims to MIN 38 for 16 yards (26-T.Waynes).
Q2 · 7:43MIN +11% win prob(7:43) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left to 18-T.Gabriel for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left to 18-T.Gabriel to MIN 1 for 40 yards (24-H.Hill).
Q1 · 13:39MIN +10% win prob(13:39) 24-J.Howard right tackle ran ob at MIN 22 for 42 yards (99-D.Hunter).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bears	Vikings
Offensive plays	63	52
Total yards	335 (edge)	164
Yards per play	5.3 (edge)	3.2
Expected points added / play	0.07 (edge)	-0.44
Success rate	40% (edge)	33%
Dropback rate	46%	73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14 (edge)	-0.60
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.02 (edge)	0.00
Third downs	8/15 (edge)	1/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	16 (edge)	9
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	4
Turnovers	0	0

Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.44.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

18/26, 163 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

2.6 expected points added · +0.3% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

20/33, 132 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-22.9 expected points added · -4.7% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

Jordan HowardRB

21 att, 109 yds, 2 TD

3.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

11 att, 39 yds, 0 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

Taylor GabrielWR

4/4 for 61 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Stefon DiggsWR

8/10 for 47 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · -5.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 25	5	3	0:36	Punt
2	CHI	CHI 29	7	71	3:46	Touchdown
3	MIN	MIN 25	5	1	2:05	Punt
4	CHI	CHI 29	4	4	1:44	Punt
5	MIN	MIN 25	4	7	1:53	Punt
6	CHI	CHI 12	7	45	5:02	Punt
7	MIN	MIN 12	4	-9	1:58	Punt
8	CHI	CHI 15	11	75	5:39	Touchdown
9	MIN	MIN 25	8	25	3:42	Punt
10	CHI	CHI 12	4	7	1:38	Punt
11	MIN	MIN 36	8	22	1:04	Turnover on downs
12	CHI	CHI 25	3	3	0:53	End of half
13	CHI	CHI 25	11	40	5:34	Punt
14	MIN	MIN 8	13	66	7:35	Touchdown
15	CHI	CHI 25	18	77	9:05	Touchdown
16	MIN	MIN 25	5	7	0:52	Turnover on downs
17	CHI	MIN 32	4	8	2:29	Turnover on downs
18	MIN	MIN 25	6	12	0:51	Turnover on downs
19	CHI	MIN 37	4	5	1:01	Turnover on downs
20	MIN	MIN 32	6	30	2:16	Turnover on downs
21	CHI	CHI 28	1	0	0:17	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 77 scrimmage yards over 18 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	18/26	163	0	0	0	2.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jordan Howard	21	109	5.2	2	3.3
Tarik Cohen	5	24	4.8	1	1.7
Mitchell Trubisky	3	16	5.3	0	1.6
Benny Cunningham	6	13	2.2	0	-4.1
Anthony Miller	2	7	3.5	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Taylor Gabriel	4	4	61	15%	4.0
Trey Burton	5	6	33	23%	2.2
Javon Wims	4	4	32	15%	3.0
Kevin White	1	3	22	12%	-0.6
Tarik Cohen	2	3	8	12%	-2.1
Jordan Howard	1	2	5	8%	-1.7
Josh Bellamy	1	4	2	15%	-3.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Leonard Floyd	3	3	0.0	0
Roquan Smith	4	1	0.0	0
Adrian Amos	5	0	0.0	1
Eddie Goldman	2	2	1.0	0
Sherrick McManis	3	0	0.0	0
Prince Amukamara	2	1	0.0	1
Akiem Hicks	2	1	1.5	0
Kyle Fuller	2	1	0.0	0
DeAndre Houston-Carson	2	0	0.0	0
Bilal Nichols	2	0	1.0	0

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	20/33	132	1	0	4	-22.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Dalvin Cook	11	39	3.5	0.4
Latavius Murray	2	18	9.0	0.6
Kirk Cousins	1	7	7.0	-0.0
Adam Thielen	1	-1	-1.0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	8	10	47	1	32%	-5.1
Adam Thielen	3	4	38	0	13%	0.9
Dalvin Cook	4	5	21	0	16%	-0.7
Kyle Rudolph	4	5	19	0	16%	-4.0
Laquon Treadwell	1	2	7	0	6%	-0.7
Aldrick Robinson	0	4	0	0	13%	-3.4
Brandon Zylstra	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Eric Wilson	4	5	0
Holton Hill	6	1	0
Harrison Smith	6	0	0
Ben Gedeon	2	4	0
Trae Waynes	2	3	0
Anthony Harris	5	0	0
Everson Griffen	2	3	0
Danielle Hunter	2	2	0
Linval Joseph	2	1	0
Mackensie Alexander	2	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -6
Closing total: 39.5
CHI moneyline: +205
MIN moneyline: -230

Vikings closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 39.5; the game landed 34 — under by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: CHI 7 days · MIN 7 days
Coaches: Matt Nagy vs Mike Zimmer

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.