2018 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 30, 2018 · M&T Bank Stadium

Cleveland Browns

Baltimore RavensWinner

BAL -7 no coverO 41 ✓Ravens closed -7, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Baltimore Ravens 26–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:06, CLE +30% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:06CLE — BAL CLE ball · 4th & 10BAL 65%

(1:06) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 29-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 57-C.Mosley [99-M.Judon] at BAL 39. 57-C.Mosley to BAL 39 for no gain.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:06CLE +30% win prob(1:06) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 29-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 57-C.Mosley [99-M.Judon] at BAL 39. 57-C.Mosley to BAL 39 for no gain.
Q4 · 1:35BAL +13% win prob(1:35) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to 80-J.Landry (25-T.Young). The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 80-J.Landry to BAL 39 for 16 yards (25-T.Young).
Q4 · 2:00CLE +10% win prob(2:00) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 51 yards to CLE 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-A.Callaway to CLE 26 for 1 yard (41-A.Levine Sr.).
Q3 · 12:35BAL +8% win prob(12:35) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 80-J.Landry for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Ravens
Offensive plays	56	71
Total yards	426	465 (edge)
Yards per play	7.6 (edge)	6.5
Expected points added / play	0.10 (edge)	0.09
Success rate	41%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	75%	39%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.18 (edge)	0.05
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15	0.12 (edge)
Third downs	4/11 (edge)	3/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9	13 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	2
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

23/42, 376 yds, 3 TD, 3 INT

7.7 expected points added · -4.2% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

14/24, 179 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

0.1 expected points added · -9.6% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Kenneth DixonRB

12 att, 117 yds, 0 TD

5.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

20 att, 90 yds, 2 TD

0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Jarvis LandryWR

5/9 for 102 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 7.4 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

Rashard HigginsWR

4/6 for 86 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · 1.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 34	5	24	2:06	Interception
2	BAL	BAL 39	9	46	3:27	Turnover on downs
3	CLE	CLE 25	6	70	1:05	Touchdown
4	BAL	BAL 31	9	64	3:36	Touchdown
5	CLE	CLE 20	5	9	1:58	Punt
6	BAL	BAL 23	7	77	2:54	Touchdown
7	CLE	CLE 25	8	32	2:31	Punt
8	BAL	BAL 20	8	64	6:12	Turnover on downs
9	CLE	CLE 10	5	18	2:12	Interception
10	BAL	CLE 40	5	33	2:09	Defensive touchdown
11	CLE	CLE 7	4	0	0:23	Punt
12	BAL	CLE 46	6	4	0:51	Punt
13	CLE	CLE 6	4	61	0:36	Turnover on downs
14	BAL	BAL 25	7	12	2:25	Punt
15	CLE	BAL 48	2	48	0:08	Touchdown
16	BAL	BAL 25	13	59	5:25	Turnover on downs
17	CLE	CLE 35	5	-1	1:40	Punt
18	BAL	BAL 21	4	18	2:29	Punt
19	CLE	CLE 23	9	55	4:08	Turnover on downs
20	BAL	BAL 17	13	83	6:25	Turnover on downs
21	CLE	CLE 25	11	75	3:56	Touchdown
22	BAL	BAL 25	5	5	1:35	Punt
23	CLE	CLE 26	8	35	0:47	Interception
24	BAL	BAL 39	2	0	1:02	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 83 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	23/42	376	3	3	0	7.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Nick Chubb	9	24	2.7	-2.7
Duke Johnson	4	21	5.3	0.6
Breshad Perriman	1	5	5.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jarvis Landry	5	9	102	1	22%	7.4
Rashard Higgins	4	6	86	0	15%	1.5
Antonio Callaway	4	7	79	1	17%	0.2
David Njoku	3	7	62	0	17%	0.7
Breshad Perriman	3	4	45	1	10%	2.8
Duke Johnson	1	4	3	0	10%	-1.9
Darren Fells	1	1	3	0	2%	-0.5
Nick Chubb	2	3	-4	0	7%	-2.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Joe Schobert	9	3	0.0	0
Jamie Collins	7	2	1.0	0
Terrance Mitchell	5	2	0.0	1
Briean Boddy-Calhoun	3	3	0.0	0
Jabrill Peppers	3	3	0.0	0
Damarious Randall	3	3	0.0	0
Ray-Ray Armstrong	3	2	0.0	0
T.J. Carrie	4	0	0.0	0
Emmanuel Ogbah	2	1	0.0	1
Larry Ogunjobi	1	2	0.0	0

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	14/24	179	0	0	2	0.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kenneth Dixon	12	117	9.8	0	5.5
Lamar Jackson	20	90	4.5	2	0.1
Gus Edwards	12	76	6.3	0	0.2
Ty Montgomery	2	13	6.5	0	1.0
Maxx Williams	1	0	0.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Mark Andrews	4	5	54	22%	3.4
Hayden Hurst	2	4	43	17%	0.9
Willie Snead	1	2	25	9%	1.6
Michael Crabtree	2	2	20	9%	1.0
Chris Moore	2	3	19	13%	-0.2
Ty Montgomery	1	3	9	13%	-0.9
John Brown	1	3	7	13%	-1.8
Kenneth Dixon	1	1	2	4%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
C.J. Mosley	3	3	1	2
Tony Jefferson	5	0	0	0
Patrick Onwuasor	3	1	0	0
Michael Pierce	2	1	0	0
Marlon Humphrey	3	0	0	1
Brandon Carr	2	1	0	0
Brent Urban	2	0	0	0
Maxx Williams	2	0	0	0
Za'Darius Smith	1	1	0	0
Terrell Suggs	1	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -7
Closing total: 41
CLE moneyline: +285
BAL moneyline: -325

Ravens closed -7, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 41; the game landed 50 — over by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 48°F, wind 2 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: CLE 7 days · BAL 8 days
Coaches: Gregg Williams vs John Harbaugh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.