2018 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 30, 2018 · MetLife Stadium

Dallas CowboysWinner

New York Giants

NYG -7.5 upsetO 38.5 ✓Giants closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Dallas Cowboys 36–35 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:51, DAL +35% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:51DAL — NYG NYG ball · 4th & 10DAL 52%

(:51) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short middle to 12-C.Latimer (30-A.Brown).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:51DAL +35% win prob(:51) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short middle to 12-C.Latimer (30-A.Brown).
Q4 · 9:39NYG +22% win prob(9:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 17-A.Hurns pushed ob at NYG 2 for 49 yards (20-J.Jenkins).
Q3 · 4:22NYG +18% win prob(4:22) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right tackle to DAL 15 for 68 yards (38-J.Heath).
Q4 · 5:05NYG +18% win prob(5:05) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep left to 12-C.Latimer to DAL 7 for 31 yards (30-A.Brown).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cowboys	Giants
Offensive plays	67	68
Total yards	422	443 (edge)
Yards per play	6.3	6.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.25 (edge)	0.17
Success rate	40%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	73%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.40 (edge)	0.10
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.17	0.30 (edge)
Third downs	11/17 (edge)	7/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	6
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	21
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Giants outgained Cowboys 443–422 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

27/44, 387 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

24.7 expected points added · -0.1% completion over expected

Passing · NYG

Eli ManningQB

24/41, 301 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

4.2 expected points added · -5.6% completion over expected

Rushing · NYG

Saquon BarkleyRB

17 att, 109 yds, 1 TD

3.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DAL

Rod SmithRB

12 att, 35 yds, 1 TD

-1.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

Blake JarwinTE

7/8 for 119 yds, 3 TD

19% of team targets · 13.5 expected points added

Receiving · DAL

Cole BeasleyWR

6/6 for 94 yds, 1 TD

14% of team targets · 13.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYG	NYG 38	6	56	3:02	Interception
2	DAL	DAL 20	8	28	3:49	Punt
3	NYG	NYG 14	7	40	3:54	Fumble
4	DAL	DAL 49	8	30	3:08	Turnover on downs
5	NYG	NYG 24	4	6	1:19	Punt
6	DAL	DAL 35	14	65	6:37	Touchdown
7	NYG	NYG 25	5	1	0:57	Punt
8	DAL	DAL 25	10	62	5:24	Touchdown
9	NYG	NYG 27	12	73	1:35	Touchdown
10	DAL	DAL 25	2	0	0:15	End of half
11	DAL	DAL 25	5	-6	1:50	Punt
12	NYG	DAL 45	8	20	4:10	Turnover on downs
13	DAL	DAL 24	10	76	4:00	Touchdown
14	NYG	NYG 27	7	85	3:07	Touchdown
15	DAL	DAL 25	7	18	2:01	Punt
16	NYG	NYG 19	9	81	4:14	Touchdown
17	DAL	DAL 25	7	74	1:27	Touchdown
18	NYG	NYG 26	14	74	5:50	Touchdown
19	DAL	DAL 25	2	0	0:12	Fumble
20	NYG	DAL 18	4	7	0:34	Turnover on downs
21	DAL	DAL 30	10	75	1:23	Touchdown
22	NYG	NYG 48	5	0	0:26	Turnover on downs
23	DAL	NYG 48	2	0	0:46	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Giants gained 85 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dak Prescott	27/44	387	4	0	4	24.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rod Smith	12	35	2.9	1	-1.7
Darius Jackson	6	16	2.7	0	-1.4
Dak Prescott	4	0	0.0	0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Blake Jarwin	7	8	119	3	19%	13.5
Cole Beasley	6	6	94	1	14%	13.6
Michael Gallup	3	6	50	0	14%	1.2
Allen Hurns	1	1	49	0	2%	5.0
Amari Cooper	5	11	31	0	26%	-6.4
Dalton Schultz	1	2	17	0	5%	0.7
Rod Smith	2	3	14	0	7%	-0.1
Tavon Austin	1	3	10	0	7%	0.4
Noah Brown	1	1	3	0	2%	-0.4
Darius Jackson	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5
Jamize Olawale	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Leighton Vander Esch	3	6	0.0	0	0
Taco Charlton	1	4	0.0	0	0
Chidobe Awuzie	1	3	0.0	1	2
Byron Jones	3	1	0.0	0	0
Jeff Heath	2	2	0.0	0	0
Joe Thomas	3	1	0.0	0	0
Randy Gregory	1	3	0.0	0	0
Jaylon Smith	3	0	0.0	0	0
Xavier Woods	3	0	0.0	0	0
Demarcus Lawrence	2	1	1.0	0	0

New York Giants

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Eli Manning	24/41	301	2	1	1	4.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Saquon Barkley	17	109	6.4	1	3.3
Wayne Gallman	6	23	3.8	1	1.7
Sterling Shepard	1	9	9.0	0	0.8
Eli Manning	1	2	2.0	0	1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Evan Engram	5	8	81	1	21%	7.5
Cody Latimer	4	6	72	1	15%	5.9
Sterling Shepard	4	9	67	0	23%	-2.7
Saquon Barkley	4	8	33	0	21%	-2.5
Bennie Fowler	3	4	21	0	10%	2.1
Scott Simonson	2	2	14	0	5%	0.5
Wayne Gallman	1	1	7	0	3%	0.3
Elijhaa Penny	1	1	6	0	3%	0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Janoris Jenkins	6	2	0.0	2
Michael Thomas	4	2	0.0	0
Sean Chandler	4	1	0.0	0
B.J. Goodson	3	1	0.0	0
Tae Davis	2	2	0.0	0
Olivier Vernon	2	2	2.5	0
Kareem Martin	1	2	0.0	0
Lorenzo Carter	2	1	1.0	1
Dalvin Tomlinson	1	1	0.0	0
Grant Haley	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NYG -7.5
Closing total: 38.5
DAL moneyline: +295
NYG moneyline: -338

Giants closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 38.5; the game landed 71 — over by 32.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 37°F, wind 2 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: DAL 7 days · NYG 7 days
Coaches: Jason Garrett vs Pat Shurmur

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.