For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Cowboys184 of 194 plays carry both curves
(:51) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short middle to 12-C.Latimer (30-A.Brown).
Swing −34.8 for GiantsExpected points −1.67 for GiantsThe model had Cowboys 11 points higher than the market did.play 191
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:51DAL +35% win prob(:51) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short middle to 12-C.Latimer (30-A.Brown).
4th · 9:39NYG +22% win prob(9:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 17-A.Hurns pushed ob at NYG 2 for 49 yards (20-J.Jenkins).
3rd · 4:22NYG +18% win prob(4:22) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right tackle to DAL 15 for 68 yards (38-J.Heath).
4th · 5:05NYG +18% win prob(5:05) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep left to 12-C.Latimer to DAL 7 for 31 yards (30-A.Brown).
4th · 1:19NYG +17% win prob(1:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 11-C.Beasley. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 11-C.Beasley for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 12:47NYG +17% win prob(12:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 88-E.Engram to DAL 14 for 51 yards (24-C.Awuzie; 55-L.Vander Esch).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cole Beasley's 32-yard touchdown catch with 1:19 left in the 4th put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
2nd8:17Blake Jarwin·13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+77–0
2nd1:55Blake Jarwin·19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+714–0
2nd0:22Cody Latimer·21-yd TD catch21-yard touchdown catchfrom Eli Manningfrom Eli Manning+714–7
3rd9:05Aldrick Rosas·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap Z.DeOssie+314–10
3rd5:10Blake Jarwin·39-yd TD catch39-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+721–10
3rd2:00Evan Engram·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Eli Manningfrom Eli Manning · two-point good+821–18
4th2:39Aldrick Rosas·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap Z.DeOssie+328–35
4th1:19Cole Beasley·32-yd TD catch32-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott · two-point goodLead never changed again+836–35
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryGiants
Cowboys3–4Giants
422Total yards443
6.3Yards per play6.5
40%Success rate47%
65%Third-down rate47%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays6
22First downs21
4Sacks taken1
1Turnovers2
The read
Giants ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.25Cowboys: +0.25 expected points added per play
+0.17Giants: +0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.40Cowboys: +0.40 expected points added per play
+0.10Giants: +0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.17Cowboys: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.30Giants: +0.30 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 67 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Giants’s 68 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 5, Giants 7.
NoteGiants outgained Cowboys 443-422 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 17Against their seasonOver Expected
DAL's pass rate over expected, +8.1 pts, is past their previous high of +4.4 pts in week 13 — the highest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
2.4 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.7-swing turn from week 16.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.2 points.
DAL's early-down pass rate turned over: 43.6% in week 16 against 66.7% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 10 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −4.0 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (−1.04× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Giants18.4%
leaned — got home · +5.4 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+1.08× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 8.1 pts, 9.9 points above their season mean of -1.8 pts and 2.4 times their own 4.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dallas Cowboys
53 dressed · 8 never used
73Joe LooneyC · Every snap100%77 snaps
52Connor WilliamsG · Every snap100%77 snaps
71La'el CollinsT · Every snap100%77 snaps
75Cameron FlemingT · Every snap100%77 snaps
4Dak PrescottQB · Every snap100%77 snaps
19Amari CooperWR · Full-time84%65 snaps
13Michael GallupWR · Full-time82%63 snaps
11Cole BeasleyWR · Heavy rotation77%59 snaps
45Rod SmithRB · Heavy rotation62%48 snaps
76Xavier Su'a-FiloG · Heavy rotation58%45 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Heavy rotation57%44 snaps
89Blake JarwinTE · Heavy rotation51%39 snaps
61Adam RedmondC · Rotational42%32 snaps
26Darius JacksonRB · Situational23%18 snaps
49Jamize OlawaleFB · Situational18%14 snaps
85Noah BrownWR · Situational13%10 snaps
10Tavon AustinWR · Situational13%10 snaps
17Allen HurnsWR · Situational12%9 snaps
80Rico GathersTE · Situational8%6 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
David IrvingDETyrone CrawfordDEZack MartinGChris CovingtonLBMike WhiteQBCooper RushQBEzekiel ElliottRBTyron SmithT
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
E.Manning pass−26% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:51) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short middle to 12-C.Latimer (30-A.Brown).
Q4 0:51 · Giants · 4th & 10 at NYG 48 · gained nothing · -1.67 EP · −26.4% win probability
182 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 194 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 194 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 85 yards from the DAL 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
194 of 194 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
194
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
44%
Yards
864
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54+0.1680%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.2568%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.2586%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.2243%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.0329%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.2820%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Cowboys0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
194 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
194 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Giants 38 to the Cowboys 6
Punt9 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Giants 45
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Giants 14 to the Cowboys 43
No good9 plays, from the Cowboys 49 to the Giants 15
The period ended4 plays, from the Giants 24 to the Giants 30
2nd quarter55 plays
Punt3 plays
Cowboys6Giants0
Cowboys7Giants0
Touchdown17 plays, from the Cowboys 35 to the Giants 8
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 26
Cowboys13Giants0
Cowboys14Giants0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Giants 19
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Cowboys14Giants6
Cowboys14Giants7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Giants 27 to the Cowboys 21
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays
Cowboys14Giants10
Field goal9 plays, from the Cowboys 45 to the Cowboys 24
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.2 seconds
Cowboys20Giants10
Cowboys21Giants10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cowboys 24 to the Giants 39
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Cowboys21Giants16
Cowboys21Giants18
Touchdown9 plays, from the Giants 27 to the Cowboys 6
The period ended7 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 44
4th quarter63 plays
Punt1 play
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Cowboys21Giants24
Cowboys21Giants25
Touchdown9 plays, from the Giants 19 to the Cowboys 2
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.0 seconds
Cowboys27Giants25
Cowboys28Giants25
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Giants 1
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Cowboys28Giants31
Cowboys28Giants32
Touchdown15 plays, from the Giants 26 to the Cowboys 2
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Fumble lost2 plays
Cowboys28Giants35
Field goal8 plays, from the Cowboys 18 to the Cowboys 9
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.2 seconds
Cowboys34Giants35
Cowboys36Giants35
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Giants 27
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Turnover on downs5 plays
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
