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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Lions158 of 165 plays carry both curves
(10:41) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater pass short left to 87-L.Toilolo for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −12.2 for PackersExpected points −4.07 for PackersThe model had Lions 22 points higher than the market did.play 52
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 10:41GB +12% win prob(10:41) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater pass short left to 87-L.Toilolo for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 12:55GB +9% win prob(12:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 10-B.Powell to GB 15 for 41 yards (28-T.Brown).
1st · 13:28DET +8% win prob(13:28) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 9 for -12 yards (40-J.Davis).
1st · 3:01GB +7% win prob(3:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 13-T.Jones for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:23GB +7% win prob(11:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 10-B.Powell pushed ob at GB 36 for 18 yards (38-T.Williams).
1st · 5:28GB +6% win prob(5:28) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 13-T.Jones to GB 7 for 12 yards (37-J.Jackson).
1st · 1:39
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
T.J. Jones's 5-yard touchdown catch with 3:01 left in the 1st put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st3:01T.J. Jones·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew StaffordLead never changed again+77–0
2nd10:41Levine Toilolo·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Praterfrom Matt Prater+714–0
3rd3:12Matt Prater·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap D.Muhlbach+324–0
4th6:59T.J. Jones·23-yd TD catch23-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+731–0
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by categoryPackers
Lions8–0Packers
404Total yards175
5.8Yards per play3.2
47%Success rate27%
54%Third-down rate31%
3Red-zone touchdowns0
4Explosive plays4
23First downs8
1Sacks taken3
0Turnovers1
The read
Lions ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.63 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.30Lions: +0.30 expected points added per play
−0.36Packers: −0.36 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.63Lions: +0.63 expected points added per play
−0.33Packers: −0.33 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Lions: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.54Packers: −0.54 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 70 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Packers’s 55 at 84%. Red-zone trips: Lions 5, Packers 0.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.30 expected points added per play vs -0.36.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
GB's early-down pass rate, 75.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 4.0 points clear of the next team along.
36 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −0.6 vs their 13.7%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Packers8.8%
inside their normal wobble · −3.4 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteGB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 75.0%, 9.2 points above their season mean of 65.8% and 1.4 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Stafford pass+9% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 10-B.Powell pushed ob at GB 36 for 18 yards (38-T.Williams).
Q1 11:23 · Lions · 2nd & 8 at DET 46 · gained 18 · +1.74 EP · +8.6% win probability
156 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 86 yards from the DET 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
37%
Yards
577
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48-0.3081%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.4863%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR8+0.120%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.6140%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.1140%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Lions2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Lions2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Lions0 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 26
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 21 to the Packers 25
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 44 to the Packers 35
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 6 to the Packers 12
Lions6Packers0
Lions7Packers0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Lions 44 to the Packers 1
Punt5 plays
The period ended4 plays, from the Lions 22 to the Lions 34
2nd quarter49 plays
Lions13Packers0
Lions14Packers0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Lions 32 to the Packers 8
Punt11 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Lions 49
Lions20Packers0
Lions21Packers0
Touchdown18 plays, from the Lions 14 to the Packers 3
Punt10 plays, from the Packers 22 to midfield
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Packers 22 to the Packers 44
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 46 to the Packers 41
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 9 to the Packers 18
Lions24Packers0
Field goal9 plays, from the Lions 32 to the Packers 25
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Packers 31 to the Lions 21
4th quarter34 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 21 to the Lions 25
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Packers 18 to the Lions 30
Lions30Packers0
Lions31Packers0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Packers 23
Intercepted4 plays, from the Packers 40 to the Packers 46
The period ended9 plays, from the Lions 47 to the Packers 20
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
