2018 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 30, 2018 · Lambeau Field

Detroit LionsWinner

Green Bay Packers

GB -7.5 upsetU 44.5 ✓26°F · 15 mphPackers closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Detroit Lions 31–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 10:41, GB +12% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 10:41DET — GB DET ball · 4th & 3DET 53%

(10:41) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater pass short left to 87-L.Toilolo for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 10:41GB +12% win prob(10:41) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater pass short left to 87-L.Toilolo for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 12:55GB +9% win prob(12:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 10-B.Powell to GB 15 for 41 yards (28-T.Brown).
Q1 · 13:28DET +8% win prob(13:28) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 9 for -12 yards (40-J.Davis).
Q1 · 3:01GB +7% win prob(3:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 13-T.Jones for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Lions	Packers
Offensive plays	70	55
Total yards	404 (edge)	175
Yards per play	5.8 (edge)	3.2
Expected points added / play	0.30 (edge)	-0.36
Success rate	47% (edge)	27%
Dropback rate	49%	84%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.63 (edge)	-0.33
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02 (edge)	-0.54
Third downs	7/13 (edge)	5/16
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	4
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	8
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.30 expected points added per play vs -0.36.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Matthew StaffordQB

20/32, 266 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

17.5 expected points added · -3.7% completion over expected

Passing · GB

DeShone KizerQB

16/35, 132 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-19.0 expected points added · -15.5% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

Zach ZennerRB

21 att, 93 yds, 1 TD

2.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

LeGarrette BlountRB

11 att, 15 yds, 0 TD

-5.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Brandon PowellWR

6/9 for 103 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 7.2 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Andy JonesWR

6/12 for 50 yds, 0 TD

36% of team targets · -1.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DET	DET 25	5	1	0:59	Punt
2	GB	GB 21	4	4	2:02	Punt
3	DET	DET 44	6	21	2:19	Punt
4	GB	GB 6	4	9	1:34	Punt
5	DET	DET 44	13	65	5:08	Touchdown
6	GB	GB 25	5	0	1:25	Punt
7	DET	DET 22	12	78	5:57	Touchdown
8	GB	GB 25	11	26	3:59	Punt
9	DET	DET 14	14	96	5:31	Touchdown
10	GB	GB 22	8	28	1:06	Punt
11	GB	GB 22	8	8	3:23	Punt
12	DET	DET 46	6	13	3:11	Punt
13	GB	GB 9	4	9	1:25	Punt
14	DET	DET 32	8	38	3:53	Turnover on downs
15	GB	GB 31	10	48	3:08	Turnover on downs
16	DET	DET 21	4	4	1:37	Punt
17	GB	GB 18	11	37	3:44	Turnover on downs
18	DET	DET 30	6	55	2:46	Touchdown
19	GB	GB 40	4	6	1:20	Interception
20	DET	DET 47	8	33	5:33	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 96 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	20/32	266	2	0	1	17.5
Matt Prater	1/1	8	1	0	0	4.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Zach Zenner	21	93	4.4	1	2.5
Theo Riddick	4	24	6.0	0	2.1
LeGarrette Blount	11	15	1.4	0	-5.3
Matthew Stafford	2	-2	-1.0	0	-4.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandon Powell	6	9	103	0	27%	7.2
Andy Jones	6	12	50	0	36%	-1.8
Levine Toilolo	4	4	43	1	12%	6.9
T.J. Jones	3	4	40	2	12%	7.2
Zach Zenner	1	2	30	0	6%	2.4
Nick Bellore	1	1	8	0	3%	0.9
Chris Lacy	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jarrad Davis	5	3	1.0	0	1
Quandre Diggs	3	2	0.0	1	1
Mike Ford	4	0	0.0	0	0
Christian Jones	2	1	0.0	0	0
Teez Tabor	3	0	0.0	0	0
Ricky Jean Francois	2	1	0.0	0	0
Tavon Wilson	3	0	1.0	0	0
Darius Slay	2	0	0.0	0	2
Kerry Hyder	1	1	1.0	0	0
Miles Killebrew	2	0	0.0	0	0

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
DeShone Kizer	16/35	132	0	1	2	-19.0
Aaron Rodgers	3/5	26	0	0	1	-4.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
DeShone Kizer	4	40	10.0	8.3
Jamaal Williams	8	4	0.5	-4.4
Kapri Bibbs	1	2	2.0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	3	8	43	22%	-1.2
Randall Cobb	1	5	27	14%	-2.3
Jimmy Graham	3	5	21	14%	-2.0
Jake Kumerow	3	4	19	11%	1.3
Jamaal Williams	3	3	16	8%	-1.1
Kapri Bibbs	3	5	13	14%	-5.1
Allen Lazard	1	1	7	3%	0.3
Robert Tonyan	1	2	7	6%	-3.0
J'Mon Moore	1	2	5	6%	-0.9
Lance Kendricks	0	1	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Blake Martinez	5	7	0.0	1
Tony Brown	6	2	0.0	1
Kentrell Brice	7	0	0.0	0
Antonio Morrison	4	2	0.0	0
Montravius Adams	2	4	0.0	0
Dean Lowry	4	0	0.0	2
Kyler Fackrell	1	3	1.0	0
Tyler Lancaster	1	2	0.0	0
Tramon Williams	2	0	0.0	0
Josh Jones	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -7.5
Closing total: 44.5
DET moneyline: +284
GB moneyline: -324

Packers closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 31 — under by 13.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lambeau Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 26°F, wind 15 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: DET 7 days · GB 7 days
Coaches: Matt Patricia vs Joe Philbin

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.