2018 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 30, 2018 · Nissan Stadium

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

Tennessee Titans

IND -5 ✓O 42.5 ✓Colts closed -5 and covered, winning by 16.

Indianapolis Colts 33–17. Biggest swing: Q2 4:47, IND +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 4:47IND — TEN IND ball · 2nd & 19IND 90%

(4:47) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 25-M.Mack to TEN 20 for -1 yards (55-J.Brown). FUMBLES (55-J.Brown), RECOVERED by TEN-55-J.Brown at TEN 27. 55-J.Brown to TEN 34 for 7 yards (56-Q.Nelson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 4:47IND +9% win prob(4:47) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 25-M.Mack to TEN 20 for -1 yards (55-J.Brown). FUMBLES (55-J.Brown), RECOVERED by TEN-55-J.Brown at TEN 27. 55-J.Brown to TEN 34 for 7 yards (56-Q.Nelson).
Q4 · 9:17IND +8% win prob(9:17) (Shotgun) 7-B.Gabbert pass short right intended for 13-T.Taylor INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore II at IND 46. 23-K.Moore II to TEN 38 for 16 yards (7-B.Gabbert).
Q2 · 6:47IND +8% win prob(6:47) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep left intended for 21-N.Hines INTERCEPTED by 55-J.Brown at IND 22. 55-J.Brown for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 5:10TEN +7% win prob(5:10) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to TEN 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 25-A.Jackson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by IND-28-C.Milton at TEN 9. 28-C.Milton to TEN 9 for no gain (25-A.Jackson).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Titans
Offensive plays	69	45
Total yards	439 (edge)	258
Yards per play	6.4 (edge)	5.7
Expected points added / play	0.08 (edge)	-0.34
Success rate	49% (edge)	40%
Dropback rate	58%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14 (edge)	-0.53
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.02 (edge)	0.00
Third downs	5/12 (edge)	1/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	10
Sacks taken	1	0 (edge)
Turnovers	2	2

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.34.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Andrew LuckQB

24/35, 285 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

10.9 expected points added · +4.6% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Blaine GabbertQB

18/29, 165 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-15.3 expected points added · -8.0% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Marlon MackRB

25 att, 119 yds, 1 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

16 att, 93 yds, 0 TD

0.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Dontrelle InmanWR

5/6 for 77 yds, 1 TD

17% of team targets · 8.7 expected points added

Receiving · IND

T.Y. HiltonWR

2/6 for 61 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 1.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	IND 48	5	5	1:35	Punt
2	IND	IND 8	13	97	6:46	Touchdown
3	TEN	TEN 22	7	10	2:15	Punt
4	IND	IND 10	17	95	9:58	Touchdown
5	TEN	TEN 17	7	21	2:39	Punt
6	IND	IND 6	1	0	0:12	Defensive touchdown
7	IND	IND 25	5	9	1:36	Punt
8	IND	TEN 9	2	-8	0:21	Fumble
9	TEN	TEN 34	5	21	2:13	Punt
10	IND	IND 6	7	60	1:46	Turnover on downs
11	TEN	TEN 25	8	40	0:39	Turnover on downs
12	IND	IND 32	9	75	4:14	Touchdown
13	TEN	TEN 25	6	19	2:02	Punt
14	IND	IND 15	4	8	1:47	Punt
15	TEN	TEN 32	4	7	1:25	Punt
16	IND	IND 7	7	33	3:09	Punt
17	TEN	TEN 45	3	55	0:36	Touchdown
18	IND	IND 27	6	26	3:20	Punt
19	TEN	TEN 3	7	48	4:22	Interception
20	IND	TEN 38	9	36	5:10	Turnover on downs
21	TEN	TEN 13	5	28	1:27	Turnover on downs
22	IND	TEN 8	2	8	0:04	Touchdown
23	TEN	TEN 34	3	4	0:34	Interception
24	IND	TEN 8	3	0	1:50	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 97 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andrew Luck	24/35	285	3	1	1	10.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Marlon Mack	25	119	4.8	1	0.5
Jordan Wilkins	3	18	6.0	0	-0.1
Andrew Luck	7	17	2.4	0	-6.7
Nyheim Miller-Hines	1	4	4.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Dontrelle Inman	5	6	77	1	17%	8.7
T.Y. Hilton	2	6	61	0	17%	1.2
Eric Ebron	4	6	60	1	17%	5.4
Chester Rogers	3	4	32	0	11%	1.3
Nyheim Miller-Hines	3	5	25	0	14%	-3.4
Mo Alie-Cox	1	1	21	0	3%	1.4
Jordan Wilkins	1	1	5	0	3%	0.3
Ryan Grant	1	2	4	0	6%	-0.8
Ryan Hewitt	1	1	1	1	3%	0.6
Marlon Mack	3	3	-1	0	9%	-5.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Shaquille Leonard	4	4	1	2
George Odum	3	4	0	1
Pierre Desir	4	2	0	0
Kenny Moore	3	1	1	2
Zaire Franklin	1	2	0	0
Anthony Walker	1	1	0	0
Malik Hooker	1	1	0	1
Jabaal Sheard	1	1	0	0
J.J. Wilcox	1	1	0	0
Nyheim Miller-Hines	1	0	0	0

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Blaine Gabbert	18/29	165	1	2	0	-15.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	16	93	5.8	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Corey Davis	5	7	48	0	24%	-1.3
MyCole Pruitt	2	2	26	0	7%	0.5
Dion Lewis	3	4	23	0	14%	0.4
Luke Stocker	1	2	22	1	7%	1.7
Darius Jennings	3	5	17	0	17%	-6.5
Derrick Henry	1	1	13	0	3%	1.4
Anthony Firkser	1	1	8	0	3%	0.3
Taywan Taylor	2	6	8	0	21%	-11.0
Tajae Sharpe	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jayon Brown	6	3	0.0	1	2
Wesley Woodyard	5	4	0.0	0	0
Kevin Byard	4	4	0.0	0	0
Kenny Vaccaro	5	2	0.0	0	1
Malcolm Butler	4	1	0.0	0	2
LeShaun Sims	3	1	0.0	0	0
Rashaan Evans	0	3	0.0	0	1
Harold Landry	2	1	1.0	0	0
DaQuan Jones	2	0	0.0	0	0
Adoree' Jackson	2	0	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -5
Closing total: 42.5
IND moneyline: -212
TEN moneyline: +190

Colts closed -5 and covered, winning by 16.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 50 — over by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 53°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Walt Anderson
Rest: IND 7 days · TEN 8 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs Mike Vrabel

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.