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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:01 AM ET · 16 to play
Jacksonville Jaguars 3 at Houston Texans 20. Final.
Texans -7 ✓U 39.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 17
Houston Texans 20, Jaguars 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 12:16, 4th and 9 — 13.8 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:16 · 4th and 9
Unnamed on the sheet
Jaguars
(12:16) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to HOU 12, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by JAX-17-D.Chark. Jacksonville challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to HOU 12, Center-45-M.Overton. 14-D.Carter MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by JAX-53-B.Brown at HOU 10.
Dome
Texans closed -7 and covered, winning by 17.
Houston Texans 20–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:16, Jaguars +13.8% win probability on one snap.
13.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ka'imi FairbairnJaguarsQ1 5:23(5:23) 7-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.
7.3pts
Unnamed on the sheetTexansQ1 1:42(1:42) 8-T.Daniel punts 36 yards to HOU 49, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-D.Westbrook MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by HOU-41-Z.Cunningham at HOU 49. 41-Z.Cunningham ran ob at HOU 49 for no gain.
12.1pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Texans won this one — -0.06 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.59 expected points per carry.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Texans won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 1 chunk play.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Texans won this one — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jaguars at 28% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Texans won this one — -0.06 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.46 expected points per snap.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Jaguars159 of 168 plays carry both curves
(12:16) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to HOU 12, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by JAX-17-D.Chark. Jacksonville challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to HOU 12, Center-45-M.Overto
Swing −13.8 for TexansExpected points −6.21 for TexansThe model had Jaguars 21 points higher than the market did.play 10
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:16HOU +14% win prob(12:16) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to HOU 12, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by JAX-17-D.Chark. Jacksonville challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to HOU 12, Center-45-M.Overton. 14-D.Carter MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by JAX-53-B.Brown at HOU 10.
1st · 1:42HOU +12% win prob(1:42) 8-T.Daniel punts 36 yards to HOU 49, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-D.Westbrook MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by HOU-41-Z.Cunningham at HOU 49. 41-Z.Cunningham ran ob at HOU 49 for no gain.
1st · 5:23JAX +7% win prob(5:23) 7-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.
1st · 14:08JAX +6% win prob(14:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 10-D.Hopkins (20-J.Ramsey).
1st · 8:10HOU +6% win prob(8:10) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 10-D.Hopkins to JAX 19 for 26 yards (25-D.Hayden).
1st · 8:40HOU +5% win prob(8:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins to JAX 45 for 9 yards (97-M.Jackson, 41-T.Herndon).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Deshaun Watson's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 15:00 left in the 2nd put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:11Kai Forbath·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap M.Overton+33–0
1st5:23Ka'imi Fairbairn·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder T.Daniel · snap J.Weeks+33–3
2nd15:00Deshaun Watson·5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+73–10
4th10:55Ka'imi Fairbairn·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder T.Daniel · snap J.Weeks+33–20
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jaguarscategory by categoryTexans
Jaguars1–8Texans
119Total yards343
2.5Yards per play4.7
28%Success rate42%
23%Third-down rate33%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
1Explosive plays6
6First downs21
3Sacks taken6
1Turnovers0
The read
Texans ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.59 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.46Jaguars: −0.46 expected points added per play
−0.06Texans: −0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.41Jaguars: −0.41 expected points added per play
−0.05Texans: −0.05 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.59Jaguars: −0.59 expected points added per play
−0.06Texans: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 47 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Texans’s 73 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 2, Texans 5.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.46.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 16 against 33.3% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 16.4 points.
HOU's early-down pass rate turned over: 75.0% in week 16 against 46.3% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 28 pts
leaned — got home · +7.8 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+1.17× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Texans14.3%
right on their number · +0.8 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+0.16× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteJAX's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.8%, 7.8 points above their season mean of 16.0% and 1.2 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
53 dressed · 11 never used
75Ereck FlowersT · Every snap100%47 snaps
60A.J. CannG · Every snap100%47 snaps
77Patrick OmamehG · Every snap100%47 snaps
69Tyler ShatleyC · Every snap100%47 snaps
5Blake BortlesQB · Every snap100%47 snaps
79Corey RobinsonT · Every snap100%47 snaps
12Dede WestbrookWR · Full-time94%44 snaps
34Carlos HydeRB · Full-time91%43 snaps
10Donte MoncriefWR · Full-time85%40 snaps
80James O'ShaughnessyTE · Heavy rotation74%35 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Cooke punts+16% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:16) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to HOU 12, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by JAX-17-D.Chark. Jacksonville challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to HOU 12, Center-45-M.Overton. 14-D.Carter MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by JAX-53-B.Brown at HOU 10.
Q1 12:16 · Jaguars · 4th & 9 at JAX 39 · gained nothing · +6.21 EP · +16.4% win probability
157 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 74 yards from the HOU 25 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
-0.12
Success rate
37%
Yards
461
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.1549%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.4973%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR27+0.0759%
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Jaguars2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Texans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 29
Drive ended5 plays, from the Jaguars 38 to the Texans 10
Drive ended2 plays, from the Texans 9 to the Texans 8
Jaguars3Texans0
Field goal1 play
Jaguars3Texans3
Field goal12 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Jaguars 1
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 34
Punt4 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the Texans 49 to the Jaguars 10
2nd quarter45 plays
Jaguars3Texans9
Jaguars3Texans10
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 33
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Texans 37
Punt10 plays, from the Jaguars 3 to the Jaguars 20
Jaguars3Texans16
Jaguars3Texans17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Texans 37 to the Jaguars 7
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 28
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 32 to the Texans 35
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 30
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 26 to the Jaguars 37
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 7 to the Jaguars 30
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 24 to the Texans 48
The period ended5 plays, from the Jaguars 9 to the Jaguars 21
4th quarter48 plays
Punt2 plays
Jaguars3Texans20
Field goal10 plays, from the Texans 35 to the Jaguars 5
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 45 to the Jaguars 42
Intercepted8 plays, from the Jaguars 11 to the Texans 35
The period ended19 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Jaguars 14
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Jaguarscategory by categoryTexans
Jaguars3
Texans0
