2018 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 30, 2018 · NRG Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars

Houston TexansWinner

HOU -7 ✓U 39.5 ✓DomeTexans closed -7 and covered, winning by 17.

Houston Texans 20–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:16, HOU +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 12:16JAX — HOU JAX ball · 4th & 9HOU 75%

(12:16) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to HOU 12, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by JAX-17-D.Chark. Jacksonville challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to HOU 12, Center-45-M.Overto

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 12:16HOU +14% win prob(12:16) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to HOU 12, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by JAX-17-D.Chark. Jacksonville challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to HOU 12, Center-45-M.Overton. 14-D.Carter MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by JAX-53-B.Brown at HOU 10.
Q1 · 1:42HOU +12% win prob(1:42) 8-T.Daniel punts 36 yards to HOU 49, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-D.Westbrook MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by HOU-41-Z.Cunningham at HOU 49. 41-Z.Cunningham ran ob at HOU 49 for no gain.
Q1 · 5:23JAX +7% win prob(5:23) 7-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.
Q1 · 14:08JAX +6% win prob(14:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 10-D.Hopkins (20-J.Ramsey).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jaguars	Texans
Offensive plays	47	73
Total yards	119	343 (edge)
Yards per play	2.5	4.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.46	-0.06 (edge)
Success rate	28%	42% (edge)
Dropback rate	74%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.41	-0.05 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.59	-0.06 (edge)
Third downs	3/13	6/18 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	1	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	6	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	6
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.46.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

25/35, 234 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-2.4 expected points added · +1.7% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Blake BortlesQB

15/28, 107 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-14.3 expected points added · -16.2% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

13 att, 66 yds, 1 TD

-2.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Lamar MillerRB

17 att, 56 yds, 1 TD

-3.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

DeAndre HopkinsWR

12/16 for 147 yds, 0 TD

46% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Keelan ColeWR

4/8 for 45 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · -2.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 25	5	4	1:14	Punt
2	JAX	JAX 38	6	2	1:38	Punt
3	JAX	HOU 10	2	2	2:00	Turnover on downs
4	HOU	HOU 25	11	74	4:48	Turnover on downs
5	JAX	JAX 25	5	7	1:40	Punt
6	HOU	HOU 20	4	-7	2:07	Punt
7	HOU	HOU 49	5	24	1:37	Touchdown
8	JAX	JAX 25	5	8	2:22	Punt
9	HOU	HOU 30	4	2	1:14	Punt
10	JAX	JAX 3	7	22	3:52	Punt
11	HOU	HOU 37	10	63	4:27	Touchdown
12	JAX	JAX 25	5	-5	1:25	Punt
13	HOU	HOU 32	4	-4	0:58	Punt
14	JAX	JAX 12	1	1	0:38	End of half
15	JAX	JAX 25	5	5	1:48	Punt
16	HOU	HOU 26	9	45	4:29	Punt
17	JAX	JAX 7	7	23	2:58	Punt
18	HOU	HOU 24	8	24	3:41	Punt
19	JAX	JAX 9	6	10	2:43	Punt
20	HOU	HOU 35	9	54	3:29	Turnover on downs
21	JAX	JAX 35	5	-10	1:41	Punt
22	HOU	JAX 45	4	3	1:01	Punt
23	JAX	JAX 11	8	54	2:08	Interception
24	HOU	HOU 20	14	61	6:02	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 74 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Blake Bortles	15/28	107	0	1	3	-14.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Blake Bortles	4	15	3.8	-0.2
Carlos Hyde	10	13	1.3	-5.9
Dave Williams	2	2	1.0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Keelan Cole	4	8	45	29%	-2.1
James O'Shaughnessy	3	4	25	14%	1.3
Donte Moncrief	2	3	21	11%	-1.5
Dede Westbrook	3	7	10	25%	-5.4
Carlos Hyde	2	3	6	11%	-1.4
Blake Bell	1	1	0	4%	-0.5
D.J. Chark	0	2	0	7%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Myles Jack	6	4	0.5	0
Telvin Smith	6	2	0.0	0
D.J. Hayden	7	0	0.0	0
Calais Campbell	5	2	1.5	0
Abry Jones	2	3	0.0	0
Jarrod Wilson	5	0	0.0	1
Jalen Ramsey	5	0	0.0	2
Yannick Ngakoue	3	2	1.5	1
Tre Herndon	2	1	0.0	0
Malik Jackson	2	1	1.5	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	25/35	234	0	0	6	-2.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Deshaun Watson	13	66	5.1	1	-2.1
Lamar Miller	17	56	3.3	1	-3.2
Alfred Blue	3	12	4.0	0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
DeAndre Hopkins	12	16	147	46%	5.5
DeAndre Carter	4	5	33	14%	-0.0
Vyncint Smith	3	5	28	14%	0.9
Alfred Blue	2	3	12	9%	-0.0
Ryan Griffin	1	1	8	3%	0.3
Jordan Thomas	1	1	6	3%	1.6
Lamar Miller	2	2	0	6%	-1.5
Jordan Akins	0	2	0	6%	-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Zach Cunningham	5	1	0.0	0
Benardrick McKinney	3	2	0.0	1
Justin Reid	2	3	0.0	1
Shareece Wright	4	1	0.0	0
Carlos Watkins	2	1	1.0	0
Kareem Jackson	3	0	0.0	3
J.J. Watt	2	1	1.5	0
Angelo Blackson	2	0	0.0	0
Johnson Bademosi	1	1	0.0	0
Whitney Mercilus	1	1	0.5	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: HOU -7
Closing total: 39.5
JAX moneyline: +274
HOU moneyline: -311

Texans closed -7 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 39.5; the game landed 23 — under by 16.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Peter Morelli
Rest: JAX 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches: Doug Marrone vs Bill O'Brien

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.