2018 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 30, 2018 · Sports Authority Field at Mile High

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

Denver Broncos

LAC -7 ✓U 43.5 ✓Chargers closed -7 and covered, winning by 14.

Los Angeles Chargers 23–9. Biggest swing: Q2 5:44, LAC +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 5:44LAC — DEN DEN ball · 1st & 30LAC 66%

(5:44) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum FUMBLES (Aborted) at DEN 23, RECOVERED by LAC-51-K.Emanuel at DEN 18. 51-K.Emanuel for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 5:44LAC +17% win prob(5:44) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum FUMBLES (Aborted) at DEN 23, RECOVERED by LAC-51-K.Emanuel at DEN 18. 51-K.Emanuel for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 4:25LAC +9% win prob(4:25) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 85-A.Gates INTERCEPTED by 34-W.Parks at DEN 44. 34-W.Parks to LAC 45 for 11 yards (13-K.Allen).
Q3 · 6:03LAC +9% win prob(6:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short middle to 81-T.Patrick to DEN 22 for 6 yards (31-A.Phillips, 50-H.Pullard). FUMBLES (31-A.Phillips), RECOVERED by LAC-99-J.Bosa at DEN 16. 99-J.Bosa to DEN 16 for no gain (66-J.Veldheer).
Q1 · 13:25LAC +8% win prob(13:25) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 16-Ty.Williams INTERCEPTED by 41-I.Yiadom at DEN 28. 41-I.Yiadom ran ob at DEN 32 for 4 yards.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chargers	Broncos
Offensive plays	53	75
Total yards	278	370 (edge)
Yards per play	5.2 (edge)	4.9
Expected points added / play	-0.19 (edge)	-0.24
Success rate	40%	40% (edge)
Dropback rate	47%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.17	-0.13 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.22 (edge)	-0.48
Third downs	4/11 (edge)	4/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	3 (edge)	4

Broncos outgained Chargers 370–278 but lost the turnover battle 4–3. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Case KeenumQB

31/48, 292 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-4.1 expected points added · -1.4% completion over expected

Passing · LAC

Philip RiversQB

14/24, 176 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

0.2 expected points added · -7.4% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Royce FreemanRB

17 att, 60 yds, 0 TD

-2.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

8 att, 58 yds, 1 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Mike WilliamsWR

5/6 for 65 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 6.4 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

4/7 for 64 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 2.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LAC	DEN 49	5	5	1:40	Interception
2	DEN	DEN 32	6	10	2:09	Punt
3	LAC	LAC 20	7	31	2:57	Punt
4	DEN	DEN 20	4	4	1:32	Punt
5	LAC	LAC 11	5	33	2:26	Interception
6	DEN	LAC 45	7	17	2:16	Punt
7	LAC	LAC 20	4	9	1:54	Punt
8	DEN	DEN 22	8	34	3:01	Punt
9	LAC	LAC 11	6	33	2:12	Punt
10	DEN	DEN 20	6	36	4:21	Defensive touchdown
11	DEN	DEN 10	11	84	4:20	Interception
12	LAC	LAC 20	9	13	1:01	Turnover on downs
13	—	LAC 25	0	0	0:11	End of half
14	DEN	DEN 20	8	44	3:36	Punt
15	LAC	LAC 11	8	36	4:59	Punt
16	DEN	DEN 14	2	2	0:32	Fumble
17	LAC	DEN 16	5	16	2:07	Touchdown
18	DEN	DEN 25	9	38	3:57	Punt
19	LAC	LAC 9	5	22	2:29	Punt
20	DEN	DEN 44	6	56	2:10	Touchdown
21	LAC	LAC 25	9	96	4:22	Touchdown
22	DEN	—	1	0	0:08	Fumble
23	LAC	DEN 31	2	-17	0:47	Fumble
24	DEN	DEN 34	11	35	2:45	Turnover on downs
25	LAC	LAC 31	7	11	2:08	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 96 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Philip Rivers	14/24	176	1	2	0	0.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Austin Ekeler	8	58	7.3	1	0.8
Melvin Gordon	10	42	4.2	0	-0.9
Travis Benjamin	1	11	11.0	0	0.6
Justin Jackson	6	10	1.7	0	-2.9
Derek Watt	1	8	8.0	0	0.3
Philip Rivers	1	0	0.0	0	-2.0
Geno Smith	2	-2	-1.0	0	0.0
Mike Williams	1	-11	-11.0	0	-1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Williams	5	6	65	1	25%	6.4
Keenan Allen	4	7	64	0	29%	2.7
Melvin Gordon	3	3	24	0	13%	-0.8
Tyrell Williams	2	3	23	0	13%	-1.3
Austin Ekeler	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.9
Travis Benjamin	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.6
Virgil Green	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5
Antonio Gates	0	2	0	0	8%	-4.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Adrian Phillips	7	4	0.0	0	1
Hayes Pullard	5	3	0.0	0	0
Michael Davis	5	3	0.0	0	2
Desmond King	5	2	0.0	0	0
Rayshawn Jenkins	5	2	0.0	0	0
Derwin James	5	1	0.0	0	0
Jahleel Addae	2	1	0.0	1	1
Kyle Emanuel	1	1	0.0	0	0
Jatavis Brown	1	1	0.0	0	0
Joey Bosa	2	0	1.0	0	0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Case Keenum	31/48	292	1	1	1	-4.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Royce Freeman	17	60	3.5	-2.4
Devontae Booker	5	14	2.8	-0.3
Case Keenum	3	8	2.7	-7.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DaeSean Hamilton	5	8	49	0	17%	3.8
Tim Patrick	4	7	48	0	15%	-5.1
River Cracraft	1	2	44	0	4%	0.2
Royce Freeman	8	10	43	0	21%	-0.1
Matt LaCosse	5	8	33	0	17%	-0.8
Andy Janovich	2	2	30	1	4%	3.6
Courtland Sutton	1	3	25	0	6%	-4.3
Devontae Booker	5	7	20	0	15%	-4.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Todd Davis	5	1	0	0
Shelby Harris	1	4	0	0
Bradley Roby	5	0	0	0
Josey Jewell	3	1	0	0
Bradley Chubb	4	0	0	0
Will Parks	2	1	1	1
Von Miller	2	1	0	0
Isaac Yiadom	2	0	1	1
Darian Stewart	2	0	0	0
Tramaine Brock	1	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LAC -7
Closing total: 43.5
LAC moneyline: -270
DEN moneyline: +239

Chargers closed -7 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 32 — under by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 51°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: John Parry
Rest: LAC 8 days · DEN 6 days
Coaches: Anthony Lynn vs Vance Joseph

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.