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2018 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 30, 2018 · Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Final
ChargersLos Angeles23
BY 14final margin
BroncosDenver9
Los Angeles Chargers 23 at Denver Broncos 9. Final.
Chargers -7 ✓U 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 17
Los Angeles Chargers 23, Broncos 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 5:44, 1st and 30 — 17.1 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 5:44 · 1st and 30
Unnamed on the sheet
Chargers
(5:44) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum FUMBLES (Aborted) at DEN 23, RECOVERED by LAC-51-K.Emanuel at DEN 18. 51-K.Emanuel for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Chargers closed -7 and covered, winning by 14.
Los Angeles Chargers 23–9. Biggest swing: Q2 5:44, Chargers +17.1% win probability on one snap.
17.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Will ParksBroncosQ1 4:25(4:25) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 85-A.Gates INTERCEPTED by 34-W.Parks at DEN 44. 34-W.Parks to LAC 45 for 11 yards (13-K.Allen).
9.3pts
Tim PatrickChargersQ3 6:03(6:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short middle to 81-T.Patrick to DEN 22 for 6 yards (31-A.Phillips, 50-H.Pullard). FUMBLES (31-A.Phillips), RECOVERED by LAC-99-J.Bosa at DEN 16. 99-J.Bosa to DEN 16 for no gain (66-J.Veldheer).
8.7pts
What separated them
Red zone
Chargers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Broncos at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Chargers won this one — -0.22 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.48 expected points per carry.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Chargers won this one — 3 giveaways, against Broncos at 4 giveaways.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chargers won this one — 4 of 11 on third down, against Broncos at 4 of 14 on third down.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Chargers166 of 175 plays carry both curves
(5:44) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum FUMBLES (Aborted) at DEN 23, RECOVERED by LAC-51-K.Emanuel at DEN 18. 51-K.Emanuel for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −17.1 for BroncosExpected points −7.44 for BroncosThe model had Broncos 25 points higher than the market did.play 66
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 5:44LAC +17% win prob(5:44) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum FUMBLES (Aborted) at DEN 23, RECOVERED by LAC-51-K.Emanuel at DEN 18. 51-K.Emanuel for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 4:25LAC +9% win prob(4:25) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 85-A.Gates INTERCEPTED by 34-W.Parks at DEN 44. 34-W.Parks to LAC 45 for 11 yards (13-K.Allen).
3rd · 6:03LAC +9% win prob(6:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short middle to 81-T.Patrick to DEN 22 for 6 yards (31-A.Phillips, 50-H.Pullard). FUMBLES (31-A.Phillips), RECOVERED by LAC-99-J.Bosa at DEN 16. 99-J.Bosa to DEN 16 for no gain (66-J.Veldheer).
1st · 13:25LAC +8% win prob(13:25) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 16-Ty.Williams INTERCEPTED by 41-I.Yiadom at DEN 28. 41-I.Yiadom ran ob at DEN 32 for 4 yards.
4th · 10:10LAC +8% win prob(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-C.Keenum pass to 14-C.Sutton is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. DEFENSIVE TWO-POINT ATTEMPT. 26-C.Hayward intercepted the try attempt. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
4th · 10:17DEN +7% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kyle Emanuel's 18-yard touchdown with 5:44 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Chargers, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.19Chargers: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.24Broncos: −0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.17Chargers: −0.17 expected points added per play
−0.13Broncos: −0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.22Chargers: −0.22 expected points added per play
−0.48Broncos: −0.48 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 53 snaps at a 47% dropback rate against Broncos’s 75 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 2, Broncos 3.
NoteBroncos outgained Chargers 370-278 but lost the turnover battle 4-3. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's early-down pass rate turned over: 65.9% in week 16 against 38.1% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 12 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.0 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−1.26× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Broncos12.0%
right on their number · −2.4 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLAC's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 38.1%, 14.5 points below their season mean of 52.6% and 1.5 times their own 9.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Keenum FUMBLES−24% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(5:44) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum FUMBLES (Aborted) at DEN 23, RECOVERED by LAC-51-K.Emanuel at DEN 18. 51-K.Emanuel for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 5:44 · Broncos · 1st & 30 at DEN 26 · gained nothing · -7.44 EP · −23.7% win probability
164 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 84 yards from the DEN 10 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
-0.22
Success rate
36%
Yards
646
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.5382%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26-0.2077%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.0242%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.1050%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9-0.200%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.500%
Broncos2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR6+0.3250%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.3440%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Broncos1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Broncos 49 to the Broncos 39
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 32 to the Broncos 47
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Broncos 49
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 24
Intercepted5 plays, from the Chargers 11 to the Chargers 44
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 45 to the Chargers 28
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Chargers 29
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 29 to the Chargers 44
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 11 to the Chargers 44
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defenders
Chargers6Broncos0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 46
Chargers7Broncos0
Intercepted11 plays, from the Broncos 10 to the Chargers 6
Chargers7Broncos3
Field goal13 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Chargers 6
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Chargers 46
Punt10 plays, from the Chargers 11 to the Chargers 37
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runHitchIn the boxSeven defendersPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Broncos 14 to the Broncos 16
Chargers13Broncos3
Chargers14Broncos3
Touchdown5 plays, from the Broncos 16 to the Broncos 3
The period ended10 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Chargers 48
4th quarter48 plays
Punt1 play
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 9 to the Chargers 31
Chargers14Broncos9
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Chargers16Broncos9
Touchdown6 plays, from the Broncos 44 to the Chargers 20
Chargers22Broncos9
Chargers23Broncos9
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Broncos 1
Fumble lost1 play
Fumble lost2 plays
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Broncos 34 to the Chargers 30
The period ended12 plays, from the Chargers 31 to the Chargers 42
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
