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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:04 AM ET · 15 to play · 1 final
Buffalo Bills 42, Dolphins 17 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 0:33, 1st and 10, on Chris Ivory — 22.0 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
15 mph wind
Bills closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 25.
Buffalo Bills 42–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:33, Dolphins +22.0% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:33 · 1st and 10
Chris Ivory
Dolphins
(:33) (Shotgun) 33-C.Ivory up the middle to BUF 28 for 7 yards (56-D.Godchaux).
22.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Chris IvoryBillsQ1 10:48(10:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 33-C.Ivory to MIA 1 for 46 yards (20-R.Jones) [47-K.Alonso]. MIA-24-T.McTyer was injured during the play. He is Out. Caught at MIA 35, crossed to middle after catch. T.McTyer assisted to tunnel. PENALTY on MIA-47-K.Alonso, Unnecessary Roughness, 0 yards, enforced at MIA 1.
15.6pts
Reshad JonesDolphinsQ2 0:48(:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right intended for 80-J.Croom INTERCEPTED by 20-R.Jones at BUF 29. 20-R.Jones for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
20.7pts
What separated them
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.26 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at -0.38 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.43 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at -0.40 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bills won this one — 1 giveaway, against Dolphins at 4 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bills won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 2 chunk plays.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Dolphins156 of 164 plays carry both curves
(:33) (Shotgun) 33-C.Ivory up the middle to BUF 28 for 7 yards (56-D.Godchaux).
Swing −22.0 for BillsExpected points +0.52 for BillsThe model had Dolphins 8 points higher than the market did.play 82
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:33MIA +22% win prob(:33) (Shotgun) 33-C.Ivory up the middle to BUF 28 for 7 yards (56-D.Godchaux).
2nd · 0:48MIA +21% win prob(:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right intended for 80-J.Croom INTERCEPTED by 20-R.Jones at BUF 29. 20-R.Jones for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:48BUF +16% win prob(10:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 33-C.Ivory to MIA 1 for 46 yards (20-R.Jones) [47-K.Alonso]. MIA-24-T.McTyer was injured during the play. He is Out. Caught at MIA 35, crossed to middle after catch. T.McTyer assisted to tunnel. PENALTY on MIA-47-K.Alonso, Unnecessary Roughness, 0 yards, enforced at MIA 1.
3rd · 9:12BUF +10% win prob(9:12) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 16-R.Foster for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 2 yds. into end zone, near sideline.
1st · 8:49MIA +8% win prob(8:49) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 80-D.Amendola INTERCEPTED by 49-T.Edmunds at MIA 35. 49-T.Edmunds to MIA 18 for 17 yards (70-J.James).
1st · 12:22MIA +7% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Robert Foster's 5-yard touchdown catch with 9:12 left in the 3rd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Bills ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.38Dolphins: −0.38 expected points added per play
+0.26Bills: +0.26 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.40Dolphins: −0.40 expected points added per play
+0.43Bills: +0.43 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.34Dolphins: −0.34 expected points added per play
+0.04Bills: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 61 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Bills’s 58 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 2, Bills 6.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs -0.38.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 13 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.3 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.66× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Bills18.9%
right on their number · +3.0 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was BUF's pass rate over expected, 1.5 pts against a season mean of -4.3 pts — and BUF swings 6.9 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Allen pass−20% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right intended for 80-J.Croom INTERCEPTED by 20-R.Jones at BUF 29. 20-R.Jones for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 0:48 · Bills · 2nd & 12 at BUF 23 · gained nothing · -7.16 EP · −20.1% win probability
154 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 78 yards from the BUF 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
-0.14
Success rate
41%
Yards
606
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.4868%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR29+0.1941%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21+0.3162%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.2111%
Dolphins3 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR6-0.6567%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR2——
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.8 seconds
Dolphins0Bills6
Dolphins0Bills7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bills 34 to the Dolphins 1
Intercepted4 plays, from the Dolphins 19 to the Dolphins 31
Dolphins0Bills13
Dolphins0Bills14
Touchdown2 plays
Intercepted9 plays, from the Dolphins 22 to the Bills 46
The period ended9 plays, from the Bills 38 to the Dolphins 28
2nd quarter48 plays
No good5 plays, from the Dolphins 21 to the Dolphins 20
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 32 to the Dolphins 46
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 26 to the Bills 31
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 48 to the Bills 34
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 11 to the Bills 20
Dolphins6Bills14
Dolphins7Bills14
Touchdown16 plays, from the Dolphins 49 to the Bills 3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Dolphins13Bills14
Touchdown4 plays
Dolphins14Bills14
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 32 to the Dolphins 33
Dolphins14Bills20
Dolphins14Bills21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bills 22 to the Dolphins 5
Fumble lost3 plays
Dolphins14Bills27
Dolphins14Bills28
Touchdown6 plays, from the Dolphins 23 to the Dolphins 9
Dolphins17Bills28
Field goal12 plays, from the Dolphins 34 to the Bills 11
The period ended7 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 34
4th quarter39 plays
Punt1 play
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 26 to the Dolphins 44
Dolphins17Bills34
Dolphins17Bills35
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Dolphins 30
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Dolphins 22 to the Bills 42
Dolphins17Bills41
Dolphins17Bills42
Touchdown3 plays, from the Bills 48 to the Dolphins 26
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 31
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Bills 48 to the Dolphins 23
The period ended4 plays, from the Dolphins 26 to the Dolphins 32
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bills -5.5
Closing total
39.5
Dolphins moneyline
+222
Bills moneyline
-250
Bills closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 25.
Total closed 39.5; the game landed 59 — over by 19.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 34°F at kickoff; windy at 15 mph out of the south-west; overcast.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
Dolphins 7 days · Bills 7 days
Coaches
Adam Gase vs Sean McDermott
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
NoteWind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
(12:22) 17-J.Allen sacked at 50 for -9 yards (55-J.Baker).
3rd · 8:56MIA +7% win prob(8:56) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at MIA 18 for -8 yards (90-S.Lawson). FUMBLES (90-S.Lawson) [90-S.Lawson], RECOVERED by BUF-97-J.Phillips at MIA 23.
3rd · 13:01BUF +6% win prob(13:01) 17-J.Allen scrambles left end pushed ob at MIA 17 for 35 yards (26-M.Smith).
Dolphinscategory by categoryBills
Dolphins0
Bills6
