2018 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 30, 2018 · New Era Field

Miami Dolphins

Buffalo BillsWinner

BUF -5.5 ✓O 39.5 ✓Bills closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 25.

Buffalo Bills 42–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:33, MIA +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:33MIA — BUF BUF ball · 1st & 10BUF 61%

(:33) (Shotgun) 33-C.Ivory up the middle to BUF 28 for 7 yards (56-D.Godchaux).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:33MIA +22% win prob(:33) (Shotgun) 33-C.Ivory up the middle to BUF 28 for 7 yards (56-D.Godchaux).
Q2 · 0:48MIA +21% win prob(:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right intended for 80-J.Croom INTERCEPTED by 20-R.Jones at BUF 29. 20-R.Jones for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 10:48BUF +16% win prob(10:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 33-C.Ivory to MIA 1 for 46 yards (20-R.Jones) [47-K.Alonso]. MIA-24-T.McTyer was injured during the play. He is Out. Caught at MIA 35, crossed to middle after catch. T.McTyer assisted to tunnel. PENALTY on MIA-47-K.Alonso, Unnecessary Roughness, 0 yards, enforced at MIA 1.
Q3 · 9:12BUF +10% win prob(9:12) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 16-R.Foster for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 2 yds. into end zone, near sideline.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Bills
Offensive plays	61	58
Total yards	225	383 (edge)
Yards per play	3.7	6.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.38	0.26 (edge)
Success rate	39%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	61%	55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.40	0.43 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.34	0.04 (edge)
Third downs	3/12	5/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	4	1 (edge)

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs -0.38.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

17/26, 224 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

6.2 expected points added · +2.2% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Ryan TannehillQB

18/31, 147 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-16.8 expected points added · -5.1% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

9 att, 95 yds, 2 TD

5.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Kalen BallageRB

12 att, 47 yds, 0 TD

-5.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Zay JonesWR

6/9 for 93 yds, 2 TD

38% of team targets · 6.9 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Kenyan DrakeRB

5/5 for 52 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 34	11	66	4:46	Touchdown
2	MIA	MIA 19	4	9	1:36	Interception
3	BUF	MIA 18	2	18	0:07	Touchdown
4	MIA	MIA 22	9	32	4:10	Interception
5	BUF	BUF 38	11	49	6:24	Turnover on downs
6	MIA	MIA 32	5	6	2:16	Punt
7	BUF	BUF 26	4	5	1:38	Punt
8	MIA	BUF 48	5	5	2:39	Punt
9	BUF	BUF 11	4	9	1:59	Punt
10	MIA	MIA 49	12	55	3:31	Touchdown
11	BUF	BUF 25	3	-2	0:15	Defensive touchdown
12	BUF	BUF 21	2	7	0:39	End of half
13	MIA	MIA 32	5	1	1:14	Punt
14	BUF	BUF 22	11	78	4:37	Touchdown
15	MIA	MIA 26	3	-3	0:24	Fumble
16	BUF	MIA 23	6	23	1:48	Touchdown
17	MIA	MIA 34	12	55	5:29	Turnover on downs
18	BUF	BUF 25	5	9	1:37	Punt
19	MIA	MIA 26	5	16	2:21	Punt
20	BUF	BUF 30	4	55	1:17	Touchdown
21	MIA	MIA 22	8	36	3:04	Fumble
22	BUF	BUF 48	3	37	0:25	Touchdown
23	MIA	MIA 25	5	2	1:39	Punt
24	BUF	BUF 48	8	29	4:46	Turnover on downs
25	MIA	MIA 26	2	11	1:19	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 78 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	18/31	147	0	2	4	-16.8
Kenny Stills	1/1	3	1	0	0	1.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Kalen Ballage	12	47	3.9	-5.9
Kenyan Drake	11	43	3.9	-1.2
Ryan Tannehill	2	9	4.5	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kenyan Drake	5	5	52	0	17%	5.0
Kenny Stills	3	7	27	0	23%	-3.1
Danny Amendola	4	5	26	0	17%	-2.6
Mike Gesicki	1	2	18	0	7%	0.7
Durham Smythe	3	4	14	0	13%	-0.3
Brandon Bolden	1	1	9	0	3%	0.9
Ryan Tannehill	1	1	3	1	3%	1.3
Kalen Ballage	1	1	1	0	3%	-0.5
DeVante Parker	0	3	0	0	10%	-2.4
Leonte Carroo	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kiko Alonso	1	4	0.0	0	0
Raekwon McMillan	1	4	0.0	0	0
Davon Godchaux	4	1	0.0	0	0
Jerome Baker	5	0	1.0	0	0
Cameron Wake	4	0	0.0	0	0
Senorise Perry	3	1	0.0	0	0
Jalen Davis	3	1	0.0	0	0
Reshad Jones	1	2	0.0	1	1
Cornell Armstrong	3	0	0.0	0	0
Andre Branch	1	1	0.0	0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	17/26	224	3	1	1	6.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Allen	9	95	10.6	2	5.4
Chris Ivory	14	45	3.2	0	-0.0
LeSean McCoy	10	26	2.6	1	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Zay Jones	6	9	93	2	38%	6.9
Chris Ivory	1	1	46	0	4%	5.3
Jason Croom	2	4	32	0	17%	-5.1
Robert Foster	4	5	21	1	21%	1.5
LeSean McCoy	2	3	18	0	13%	1.4
Kyle Williams	1	1	9	0	4%	0.6
Ray-Ray McCloud	1	1	5	0	4%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tremaine Edmunds	11	1	1.0	1	1
Jordan Poyer	8	1	0.0	0	1
Lorenzo Alexander	4	1	0.0	0	0
Levi Wallace	4	1	0.0	0	1
Kyle Williams	4	0	0.0	0	0
Micah Hyde	2	2	0.0	0	1
Siran Neal	3	0	0.0	0	0
Shaq Lawson	2	0	2.0	0	0
Tre'Davious White	2	0	0.0	1	1
Rafael Bush	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -5.5
Closing total: 39.5
MIA moneyline: +222
BUF moneyline: -250

Bills closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 25.

Total closed 39.5; the game landed 59 — over by 19.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather: 33°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: MIA 7 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches: Adam Gase vs Sean McDermott

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.