2018 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 30, 2018 · Gillette Stadium

New York Jets

New England PatriotsWinner

NE -14 ✓U 47 ✓Patriots closed -14 and covered, winning by 35.

New England Patriots 38–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:16, NYJ +6% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 13:16NYJ — NE NE ball · 1st & 10NE 92%

(13:16) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at NE 47 for 11 yards (33-J.Adams).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 13:16NYJ +6% win prob(13:16) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at NE 47 for 11 yards (33-J.Adams).
Q1 · 10:26NE +5% win prob(10:26) 4-L.Edwards punts 51 yards to NE 33, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-J.Edelman to NE 41 for 8 yards (40-T.Cannon).
Q2 · 12:53NYJ +5% win prob(12:53) 25-E.McGuire up the middle to NYJ 25 for no gain (98-T.Flowers). FUMBLES (98-T.Flowers), RECOVERED by NE-32-D.McCourty at NYJ 22. 32-D.McCourty to NYJ 8 for 14 yards (89-C.Herndon).
Q1 · 15:00NE +4% win prob(15:00) 26-S.Michel up the middle to NE 34 for 9 yards (46-N.Hewitt; 41-B.Skrine).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Patriots
Offensive plays	55	61
Total yards	239	378 (edge)
Yards per play	4.3	6.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.47	0.23 (edge)
Success rate	35%	54% (edge)
Dropback rate	60%	56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23	0.38 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.82	0.03 (edge)
Third downs	4/13	5/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	7
First downs gained on snaps	13	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs -0.47.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Tom BradyQB

24/33, 250 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

13.0 expected points added · +11.8% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Sam DarnoldQB

16/28, 167 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-10.1 expected points added · -4.1% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Sony MichelRB

14 att, 50 yds, 0 TD

-2.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Elijah McGuireRB

18 att, 41 yds, 0 TD

-17.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Deontay BurnettWR

5/5 for 73 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 9.3 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Julian EdelmanWR

5/6 for 69 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 25	9	25	3:44	Punt
2	NYJ	NYJ 17	4	-1	1:00	Punt
3	NE	NE 41	10	59	5:00	Touchdown
4	NYJ	NYJ 22	11	56	4:22	Turnover on downs
5	NE	NE 25	9	80	3:01	Touchdown
6	NYJ	NYJ 25	2	-3	0:10	Fumble
7	NE	NYJ 8	6	9	1:40	Touchdown
8	NYJ	NYJ 34	11	66	6:35	Turnover on downs
9	NE	NE 5	8	59	4:03	Turnover on downs
10	NYJ	NYJ 36	1	-10	0:25	End of half
11	NYJ	NYJ 23	5	0	1:49	Punt
12	NE	NE 28	4	0	0:49	Punt
13	NYJ	NYJ 39	4	7	1:34	Defensive touchdown
14	NYJ	NYJ 32	11	69	5:43	Turnover on downs
15	NE	NE 9	7	34	3:51	Punt
16	NYJ	NYJ 7	7	24	3:41	Punt
17	NE	NE 36	6	45	2:53	Turnover on downs
18	NYJ	NYJ 27	5	0	1:08	Punt
19	NE	NE 36	11	69	5:06	Touchdown
20	NYJ	NYJ 25	6	18	1:11	Punt
21	NE	NE 10	4	-2	1:51	Punt
22	NYJ	NE 45	1	13	0:09	Fumble
23	NE	NE 32	1	0	0:15	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 80 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	16/28	167	0	0	4	-10.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Elijah McGuire	18	41	2.3	-17.3
Sam Darnold	1	28	28.0	2.4
De'Angelo Henderson Sr.	2	19	9.5	-1.4
Trenton Cannon	2	16	8.0	0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Deontay Burnett	5	5	73	18%	9.3
Andre Roberts	3	4	28	14%	0.4
Elijah McGuire	2	2	24	7%	1.5
Robbie Chosen	3	8	24	29%	-5.2
Christopher Herndon	1	3	8	11%	-0.7
Jordan Leggett	1	4	7	14%	-1.4
J.J. Jones	1	1	3	4%	-0.6
Trenton Cannon	0	1	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jamal Adams	7	4	0.0	0
Buster Skrine	6	1	0.0	2
Rontez Miles	7	0	0.0	0
Neville Hewitt	3	3	0.0	0
Rashard Robinson	5	0	0.0	0
Avery Williamson	4	1	0.0	0
Leonard Williams	4	1	1.0	0
Derrick Jones	3	0	0.0	0
Mike Pennel	1	2	0.0	0
Trenton Cannon	2	0	0.0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	24/33	250	4	0	1	13.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Sony Michel	14	50	3.6	-2.3
James White	4	30	7.5	-0.3
Julian Edelman	2	24	12.0	2.7
Phillip Dorsett	2	16	8.0	0.8
Rex Burkhead	5	14	2.8	0.1
Brian Hoyer	3	-3	-1.0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Julian Edelman	5	6	69	1	19%	5.7
Chris Hogan	6	11	64	0	34%	-0.3
James White	4	5	39	1	16%	0.9
Phillip Dorsett	5	5	34	1	16%	5.1
Rob Gronkowski	2	2	24	0	6%	2.6
Rex Burkhead	1	2	18	1	6%	1.6
James Develin	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
J.C. Jackson	5	2	0.0	1
Trey Flowers	4	2	1.0	0
Elandon Roberts	1	5	0.0	0
Jason McCourty	2	3	0.0	0
Deatrich Wise	2	3	0.0	0
Keion Crossen	4	0	0.0	0
Duron Harmon	2	1	0.0	0
Patrick Chung	2	1	0.0	0
Lawrence Guy	1	2	1.0	0
Devin McCourty	0	2	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -14
Closing total: 47
NYJ moneyline: +618
NE moneyline: -848

Patriots closed -14 and covered, winning by 35.

Total closed 47; the game landed 41 — under by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 33°F, wind 2 mph
Referee: Walt Coleman
Rest: NYJ 7 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: Todd Bowles vs Bill Belichick

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.