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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:56 AM ET · 16 to play
New York Jets 3 at New England Patriots 38. Final.
Patriots -14 ✓U 47 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 17
New England Patriots 38, Jets 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 13:16, 1st and 10, on Julian Edelman — 6.0 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:16 · 1st and 10
Julian Edelman
Jets
(13:16) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at NE 47 for 11 yards (33-J.Adams).
32°F
Patriots closed -14 and covered, winning by 35.
New England Patriots 38–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:16, Jets +6.0% win probability on one snap.
6.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetJetsQ1 10:26(10:26) 4-L.Edwards punts 51 yards to NE 33, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-J.Edelman to NE 41 for 8 yards (40-T.Cannon).
4.9pts
Elijah McGuirePatriotsQ2 12:53(12:53) 25-E.McGuire up the middle to NYJ 25 for no gain (98-T.Flowers). FUMBLES (98-T.Flowers), RECOVERED by NE-32-D.McCourty at NYJ 22. 32-D.McCourty to NYJ 8 for 14 yards (89-C.Herndon).
4.6pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.03 expected points per carry, against Jets at -0.82 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.23 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.47 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Patriots won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Jets at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — no giveaways, against Jets at 3 giveaways.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Jets153 of 160 plays carry both curves
(13:16) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at NE 47 for 11 yards (33-J.Adams).
Swing −6.0 for PatriotsExpected points +0.65 for PatriotsThe model had Jets 35 points higher than the market did.play 6
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:16NYJ +6% win prob(13:16) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at NE 47 for 11 yards (33-J.Adams).
1st · 10:26NE +5% win prob(10:26) 4-L.Edwards punts 51 yards to NE 33, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-J.Edelman to NE 41 for 8 yards (40-T.Cannon).
2nd · 12:53NYJ +5% win prob(12:53) 25-E.McGuire up the middle to NYJ 25 for no gain (98-T.Flowers). FUMBLES (98-T.Flowers), RECOVERED by NE-32-D.McCourty at NYJ 22. 32-D.McCourty to NYJ 8 for 14 yards (89-C.Herndon).
1st · 15:00NE +4% win prob(15:00) 26-S.Michel up the middle to NE 34 for 9 yards (46-N.Hewitt; 41-B.Skrine).
1st · 9:03NE +4% win prob(9:03) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 13-P.Dorsett to NYJ 44 for 8 yards (30-R.Robinson).
1st · 2:35NE +4% win prob(2:35) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 18-D.Burnett to NE 23 for 10 yards (27-J.Jackson) [53-K.Van Noy].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
James White's 17-yard touchdown catch with 5:23 left in the 1st put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:23James White·17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom BradyLead never changed again+70–7
1st0:58Jason Myers·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.Hennessy+33–7
2nd12:57Rex Burkhead·18-yd TD catch18-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+73–14
2nd11:12Phillip Dorsett·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+73–21
4th9:44Stephen Gostkowski·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder R.Allen · snap J.Cardona+33–31
4th3:30Julian Edelman·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+73–38
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categoryPatriots
Jets0–8Patriots
239Total yards378
4.3Yards per play6.2
35%Success rate54%
31%Third-down rate50%
0Red-zone touchdowns4
7Explosive plays7
13First downs23
4Sacks taken1
3Turnovers0
The read
Patriots ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.82 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.47Jets: −0.47 expected points added per play
+0.23Patriots: +0.23 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.23Jets: −0.23 expected points added per play
+0.38Patriots: +0.38 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.82Jets: −0.82 expected points added per play
+0.03Patriots: +0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 55 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Patriots’s 61 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Jets 2, Patriots 5.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs -0.47.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's pass rate over expected turned over: −18.2 pts in week 16 against +5.9 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
NYJ's pass rate over expected turned over: +8.4 pts in week 16 against −7.9 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
55 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.9 points.
NE's early-down pass rate turned over: 33.3% in week 16 against 58.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 22 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.8 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Patriots18.2%
right on their number · +2.9 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYJ's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 31.9 points above their season mean of 34.7% and 1.2 times their own 26.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
E.McGuire up−10% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(12:53) 25-E.McGuire up the middle to NYJ 25 for no gain (98-T.Flowers). FUMBLES (98-T.Flowers), RECOVERED by NE-32-D.McCourty at NYJ 22. 32-D.McCourty to NYJ 8 for 14 yards (89-C.Herndon).
Q2 12:53 · Jets · 1st & 10 at NYJ 25 · lost 3 · -6.42 EP · −9.6% win probability
151 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 160 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 75 yards from the NE 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
160 of 160 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
160
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
41%
Yards
614
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.2247%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22-0.3782%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR20+0.3870%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.4933%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.3350%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.1656%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.7620%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Patriots 25 to midfield
Punt4 plays
Jets0Patriots6
Jets0Patriots7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Patriots 41 to the Jets 17
Jets3Patriots7
Field goal11 plays, from the Jets 22 to the Patriots 22
The period ended5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 43
2nd quarter40 plays
Jets3Patriots13
Jets3Patriots14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Patriots 44 to the Jets 18
Fumble lost2 plays
Jets3Patriots20
Jets3Patriots21
Touchdown8 plays
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Jets 34 to the Patriots 5
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Patriots 5 to the Jets 36
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 23 to the Jets 31
Punt5 plays
Jets3Patriots27
Touchdown4 plays, from the Jets 39 to the Patriots 49
Jets3Patriots28
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Jets 32 to the Patriots 9
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 9 to the Patriots 43
The period ended5 plays, from the Jets 7 to the Jets 11
4th quarter40 plays
Punt4 plays
Jets3Patriots31
Field goal6 plays, from the Patriots 36 to the Jets 19
Punt5 plays
Jets3Patriots37
Jets3Patriots38
Touchdown12 plays, from the Patriots 36 to the Jets 5
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 43
Punt4 plays
Fumble lost1 play
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Patriots -14
Closing total
47
Jets moneyline
+618
Patriots moneyline
-848
Patriots closed -14 and covered, winning by 35.
Total closed 47; the game landed 41 — under by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Freezing, 32°F at kickoff; still at 2 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Walt Coleman
Rest
Jets 7 days · Patriots 7 days
Coaches
Todd Bowles vs Bill Belichick
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 5:23
NE +4% win prob
(5:23) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 28-J.White for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 26th TD pass of season, 2nd-most all-time in a season after turning 40 (Brady 30, 2017). Patriots 400 + pts over 2 pts for season, 12th straight season with 400+ pts, extends NFL record.
2nd · 13:41NE +3% win prob(13:41) 28-J.White left end to NYJ 18 for 21 yards (45-R.Miles).
