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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:37 AM ET · 16 to play
Oakland Raiders 3 at Kansas City Chiefs 35. Final.
Chiefs -14.5 ✓U 54 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 17
Kansas City Chiefs 35, Raiders 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 12:51, 3rd and 5, on Tyreek Hill — 6.5 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:51 · 3rd and 5
Tyreek Hill
Chiefs
(12:51) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Chiefs closed -14.5 and covered, winning by 32.
Kansas City Chiefs 35–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:51, Chiefs +6.5% win probability on one snap.
6.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetChiefsQ1 14:05(14:05) (Shotgun) 26-Dam. Williams up the middle to KC 32 for 4 yards (99-A.Key).
3.9pts
Daniel SorensenChiefsQ1 5:54(5:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right intended for 87-J.Cook INTERCEPTED by 49-D.Sorensen at KC 46. 49-D.Sorensen for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Neither club separated from the other on any measure by enough to be worth calling a difference.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Raiders144 of 152 plays carry both curves
(12:51) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +6.5 for ChiefsExpected points +6.11 for ChiefsThe model had Raiders 36 points higher than the market did.play 8
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:51KC +6% win prob(12:51) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 5:54OAK +6% win prob(5:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right intended for 87-J.Cook INTERCEPTED by 49-D.Sorensen at KC 46. 49-D.Sorensen for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:05KC +4% win prob(14:05) (Shotgun) 26-Dam. Williams up the middle to KC 32 for 4 yards (99-A.Key).
1st · 7:18KC +3% win prob(7:18) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 88-M.Ateman.
1st · 14:46KC +3% win prob(14:46) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 42-A.Sherman to KC 28 for 12 yards (21-G.Conley) [99-A.Key].
1st · 8:02KC +3% win prob(8:02) 28-D.Martin right guard to LV 37 for 15 yards (24-J.Lucas).
2nd · 14:18
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyreek Hill's 67-yard touchdown catch with 12:51 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:51Tyreek Hill·67-yd TD catch67-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+70–7
4 of 4 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
KC's early-down pass rate turned over: 72.3% in week 16 against 48.8% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 3.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
KC's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 33.3% in week 16 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 16.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
4 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10 pts to 20 pts
Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Chiefs11.1%
inside their normal wobble · −3.9 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.51× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteKC's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 48.8%, 12.6 points below their season mean of 61.3% and 1.7 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr pass−17% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(5:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right intended for 87-J.Cook INTERCEPTED by 49-D.Sorensen at KC 46. 49-D.Sorensen for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 5:54 · Raiders · 2nd & 10 at 50 · gained nothing · -8.65 EP · −17.1% win probability
142 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 152 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 99 yards from the KC 1 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, OAK attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
152 of 152 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
152
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
46%
Yards
701
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.3462%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.1645%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.4364%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.1175%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.650%
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.5450%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
152 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
152 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Raiders0Chiefs6
Raiders0Chiefs7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chiefs 16 to the Chiefs 33
Offense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 48
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 45 to the Raiders 40
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.9 seconds
Raiders0Chiefs13
Touchdown10 plays, from the Raiders 12 to midfield
Raiders0Chiefs14
The period ended12 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chiefs 35
2nd quarter50 plays
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Chiefs 40 to the Chiefs 33
Raiders0Chiefs20
Raiders0Chiefs21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 40 to the Raiders 4
Intercepted5 plays, from the Raiders 45 to the Chiefs 34
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Raiders 4 to the Raiders 1
Raiders3Chiefs21
Field goal14 plays, from the Raiders 2 to the Chiefs 32
Intercepted4 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 44
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 3 to the Raiders 12
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chiefs 36
Raiders3Chiefs27
Raiders3Chiefs28
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chiefs 1 to the Chiefs 11
Punt9 plays, from the Raiders 43 to the Chiefs 46
The period ended8 plays, from the Chiefs 8 to the Chiefs 46
4th quarter28 plays
Raiders3Chiefs34
Raiders3Chiefs35
Touchdown4 plays, from the Chiefs 47 to the Raiders 15
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 44
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Raiders 29
The period ended4 plays, from the Raiders 29 to the Raiders 46
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -14.5
Closing total
54
Raiders moneyline
+586
Chiefs moneyline
-794
Chiefs closed -14.5 and covered, winning by 32.
Total closed 54; the game landed 38 — under by 16.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 44°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the south; overcast.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Raiders 6 days · Chiefs 7 days
Coaches
Jon Gruden vs Andy Reid
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
OAK +2% win prob
(14:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at KC 40 for -7 yards (50-J.Houston). FUMBLES (50-J.Houston), RECOVERED by KC-50-J.Houston at KC 40. 50-J.Houston to KC 40 for no gain (77-K.Miller).
1st · 15:00OAK +2% win prob8-D.Carlson kicks 65 yards from LV 35 to KC 0. 39-Tr. Smith pushed ob at KC 26 for 26 yards (42-K.Joseph). PENALTY on KC-84-D.Harris, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 26.
