2018 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 30, 2018 · FedExField

Philadelphia EaglesWinner

Washington Commanders

PHI -6 ✓U 43 ✓Eagles closed -6 and covered, winning by 24.

Philadelphia Eagles 24–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:58, PHI +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 10:58PHI — WAS PHI ball · 3rd & 5PHI 82%

(10:58) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep middle intended for 86-Z.Ertz INTERCEPTED by 22-D.Everett at WAS 7. 22-D.Everett to WAS 31 for 24 yards (65-L.Johnson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 10:58PHI +10% win prob(10:58) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep middle intended for 86-Z.Ertz INTERCEPTED by 22-D.Everett at WAS 7. 22-D.Everett to WAS 31 for 24 yards (65-L.Johnson).
Q1 · 14:44WAS +9% win prob(14:44) 28-W.Smallwood right guard to PHI 38 for 8 yards (51-S.Hamilton, 93-J.Allen).
Q2 · 4:40WAS +6% win prob(4:40) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short middle to 28-W.Smallwood to WAS 24 for 9 yards (22-D.Everett, 31-F.Moreau).
Q1 · 2:38WAS +5% win prob(2:38) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep right to 17-A.Jeffery ran ob at WAS 21 for 16 yards.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Eagles	Commanders
Offensive plays	69	44
Total yards	362 (edge)	89
Yards per play	5.2 (edge)	2.0
Expected points added / play	0.18 (edge)	-0.50
Success rate	55% (edge)	27%
Dropback rate	54%	77%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.24 (edge)	-0.47
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.10 (edge)	-0.59
Third downs	8/14 (edge)	0/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	1
First downs gained on snaps	25 (edge)	7
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1	1

Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.50.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PHI

Nick FolesQB

28/33, 221 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

6.0 expected points added · +14.3% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Josh JohnsonQB

12/27, 91 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-18.6 expected points added · -20.1% completion over expected

Rushing · PHI

Wendell SmallwoodRB

12 att, 53 yds, 0 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Josh AdamsRB

11 att, 50 yds, 0 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PHI

Alshon JefferyWR

5/5 for 59 yds, 1 TD

15% of team targets · 6.6 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

Nelson AgholorWR

5/6 for 40 yds, 2 TD

18% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 23	2	0	0:16	Interception
2	PHI	PHI 30	7	47	3:56	Interception
3	WAS	WAS 31	4	7	1:26	Punt
4	PHI	PHI 16	4	2	1:44	Punt
5	WAS	WAS 46	4	-4	0:56	Punt
6	PHI	PHI 21	11	64	6:20	Turnover on downs
7	WAS	WAS 24	7	21	3:03	Punt
8	PHI	PHI 13	20	92	11:49	Touchdown
9	WAS	WAS 25	5	6	0:30	End of half
10	PHI	PHI 25	8	35	4:36	Punt
11	WAS	WAS 9	4	7	1:36	Punt
12	PHI	PHI 32	14	68	7:23	Touchdown
13	WAS	WAS 25	9	15	1:55	Punt
14	PHI	PHI 25	4	-2	1:38	Punt
15	WAS	WAS 46	5	-5	2:12	Turnover on downs
16	PHI	WAS 46	6	46	3:06	Touchdown
17	WAS	WAS 18	14	42	4:47	Turnover on downs
18	PHI	PHI 40	5	10	2:47	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 92 scrimmage yards over 20 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nick Foles	28/33	221	2	1	3	6.0
Nate Sudfeld	1/1	22	1	0	0	3.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Wendell Smallwood	12	53	4.4	0.4
Josh Adams	11	50	4.5	0.6
Darren Sproles	7	24	3.4	0.2
Nick Foles	2	4	2.0	2.0
Nate Sudfeld	2	-2	-1.0	-2.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Alshon Jeffery	5	5	59	1	15%	6.6
Nelson Agholor	5	6	40	2	18%	5.9
Josh Adams	3	3	33	0	9%	2.9
Golden Tate	4	6	33	0	18%	-0.2
Dallas Goedert	3	3	27	0	9%	1.1
Wendell Smallwood	4	4	24	0	12%	2.3
Zach Ertz	3	4	15	0	12%	-5.7
Darren Sproles	2	3	12	0	9%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Rasul Douglas	4	2	0.0	1	1
Malcolm Jenkins	4	0	0.0	0	1
Nigel Bradham	3	1	0.0	0	2
Fletcher Cox	4	0	3.0	0	0
Avonte Maddox	3	0	0.0	0	0
Cre'von LeBlanc	3	0	0.0	0	0
Michael Bennett	3	0	1.0	0	0
Kamu Grugier-Hill	2	0	0.0	0	0
Brandon Graham	2	0	0.0	0	1
LaRoy Reynolds	1	1	0.0	0	0

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Johnson	12/27	91	0	1	4	-18.6
Tress Way	1/1	7	0	0	0	2.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Chris Thompson	2	10	5.0	-0.5
Samaje Perine	3	7	2.3	-0.4
Josh Johnson	3	4	1.3	-2.5
Adrian Peterson	4	0	0.0	-2.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Josh Doctson	2	4	33	15%	-0.2
Michael Floyd	2	3	15	11%	-0.1
Chris Thompson	5	8	14	30%	-3.2
Matt Flanagan	1	1	14	4%	0.8
Darvin Kidsy	1	2	8	7%	2.0
Jamison Crowder	1	8	7	30%	-6.4
Jehu Chesson	1	1	7	4%	2.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Zach Brown	9	2	0.0	0	0
Deshazor Everett	3	4	0.0	1	1
Mason Foster	4	2	0.0	0	0
Shaun Dion Hamilton	4	2	1.0	0	0
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix	3	2	0.0	0	0
Jonathan Allen	3	2	0.0	0	0
Josh Norman	3	2	0.0	0	0
Fabian Moreau	2	2	0.0	0	1
Greg Stroman	3	1	0.0	0	0
Pernell McPhee	2	1	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PHI -6
Closing total: 43
PHI moneyline: -245
WAS moneyline: +218

Eagles closed -6 and covered, winning by 24.

Total closed 43; the game landed 24 — under by 19.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 46°F, wind 3 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: PHI 7 days · WAS 8 days
Coaches: Doug Pederson vs Jay Gruden

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.