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Philadelphia Eagles 24 at Washington Commanders 0. Final.
Eagles -6 ✓U 43 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 17
Philadelphia Eagles 24, Commanders 0 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 10:58, 3rd and 5, on Deshazor Everett — 10.3 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:58 · 3rd and 5
Deshazor Everett
Commanders
(10:58) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep middle intended for 86-Z.Ertz INTERCEPTED by 22-D.Everett at WAS 7. 22-D.Everett to WAS 31 for 24 yards (65-L.Johnson).
Eagles closed -6 and covered, winning by 24.
Philadelphia Eagles 24–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:58, Commanders +10.3% win probability on one snap.
10.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Wendell SmallwoodEaglesQ1 14:44(14:44) 28-W.Smallwood right guard to PHI 38 for 8 yards (51-S.Hamilton, 93-J.Allen).
9.4pts
Wendell SmallwoodEaglesQ2 4:40(4:40) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short middle to 28-W.Smallwood to WAS 24 for 9 yards (22-D.Everett, 31-F.Moreau).
5.5pts
What separated them
Third down
Eagles won this one — 8 of 14 on third down, against Commanders at 0 of 9 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Eagles won this one — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Commanders at 27% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.18 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.50 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.10 expected points per carry, against Commanders at -0.59 expected points per carry.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Eagles142 of 148 plays carry both curves
(10:58) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep middle intended for 86-Z.Ertz INTERCEPTED by 22-D.Everett at WAS 7. 22-D.Everett to WAS 31 for 24 yards (65-L.Johnson).
Swing +10.3 for CommandersExpected points +5.43 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 23 points higher than the market did.play 12
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 10:58PHI +10% win prob(10:58) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep middle intended for 86-Z.Ertz INTERCEPTED by 22-D.Everett at WAS 7. 22-D.Everett to WAS 31 for 24 yards (65-L.Johnson).
1st · 14:44WAS +9% win prob(14:44) 28-W.Smallwood right guard to PHI 38 for 8 yards (51-S.Hamilton, 93-J.Allen).
2nd · 4:40WAS +6% win prob(4:40) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short middle to 28-W.Smallwood to WAS 24 for 9 yards (22-D.Everett, 31-F.Moreau).
1st · 2:38WAS +5% win prob(2:38) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep right to 17-A.Jeffery ran ob at WAS 21 for 16 yards.
2nd · 13:00PHI +5% win prob(13:00) (Shotgun) 8-J.Johnson left end pushed ob at WAS 45 for -5 yards (32-R.Douglas).
2nd · 15:00WAS +4% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 8-J.Johnson pass deep middle to 18-J.Doctson to WAS 43 for 20 yards (32-R.Douglas).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jake Elliott's 33-yard field goal with 0:26 left in the 1st put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st0:26Jake Elliott·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.LovatoLead never changed again+33–0
2nd0:36Alshon Jeffery·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Folesfrom Nick Foles+710–0
3rd1:28Nelson Agholor·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Folesfrom Nick Foles+717–0
Eagles ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.59 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.18Eagles: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.50Commanders: −0.50 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.24Eagles: +0.24 expected points added per play
−0.47Commanders: −0.47 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.10Eagles: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.59Commanders: −0.59 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 69 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Commanders’s 44 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 4, Commanders 0.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.50.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's early-down pass rate turned over: 37.8% in week 16 against 71.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.9 points.
WAS's pass rate over expected turned over: −15.4 pts in week 16 against +0.9 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.2 vs their 18.4%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.67× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Commanders16.2%
right on their number · +1.0 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteWAS's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 71.0%, 15.9 points above their season mean of 55.0% and 1.2 times their own 12.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
N.Foles pass−14% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:58) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep middle intended for 86-Z.Ertz INTERCEPTED by 22-D.Everett at WAS 7. 22-D.Everett to WAS 31 for 24 yards (65-L.Johnson).
Q1 10:58 · Eagles · 3rd & 5 at WAS 23 · gained nothing · -5.43 EP · −14.1% win probability
140 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 148 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 148 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 87 yards from the PHI 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
148 of 148 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
148
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
42%
Yards
449
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.0355%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.6577%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24+0.4550%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Commanders2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Commanders0 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
148 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
148 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Intercepted2 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Commanders 23
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 16 to the Eagles 21
Punt4 plays
Eagles3Commanders0
Field goal11 plays, from the Eagles 21 to the Commanders 15
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 23 to midfield
Eagles9Commanders0
Eagles10Commanders0
Touchdown23 plays, from the Eagles 13 to the Commanders 2
The period ended8 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 39
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Commanders 40
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 9 to the Commanders 16
Eagles16Commanders0
Eagles17Commanders0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Eagles 32 to the Commanders 6
The period ended6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 33
4th quarter40 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 27
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Commanders 46 to the Eagles 33
Eagles23Commanders0
Eagles24Commanders0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Commanders 46 to the Commanders 22
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Commanders 18 to the Eagles 32
The period ended6 plays, from the Eagles 40 to midfield
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
