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connecting · reading the slate
Game Center
2018 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 30, 2018 · FedExField
FinalThe verdict · 2018 Week 17
It turned at Q1 10:58, 3rd and 5, on Deshazor Everett — 10.3 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Philadelphia Eagles 24–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:58, Commanders +10.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:58 · 3rd and 5
Deshazor Everett
Commanders
(10:58) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep middle intended for 86-Z.Ertz INTERCEPTED by 22-D.Everett at WAS 7. 22-D.Everett to WAS 31 for 24 yards (65-L.Johnson).
10.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Eagles won this one — 8 of 14 on third down, against Commanders at 0 of 9 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Eagles won this one — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Commanders at 27% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.18 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.50 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.10 expected points per carry, against Commanders at -0.59 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 11.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
(10:58) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep middle intended for 86-Z.Ertz INTERCEPTED by 22-D.Everett at WAS 7. 22-D.Everett to WAS 31 for 24 yards (65-L.Johnson).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jake Elliott's 33-yard field goal with 0:26 left in the 1st put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Jake Elliott33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.LovatoLead never changed again+33–04 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Eaglescategory by categoryCommanders
Eagles ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.59 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 69 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Commanders’s 44 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 4, Commanders 0.
Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.50.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
WAS's early-down pass rate turned over: 37.8% in week 16 against 71.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.9 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
WAS's pass rate over expected turned over: −15.4 pts in week 16 against +0.9 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points. · +0.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Eagles-0.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.3 vs their 2.8 pts, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 69 snaps
Commanders0.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.2 vs their -2.3 pts, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 44 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 88%
Tendencies room →Eagles50.0%leaned — ran early · −10.5 vs their 60.5%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (−1.05× that swing) · 54 early downs
Commanders71.0%leaned — passed early · +15.9 vs their 55.0%, and they swing ±12.9 week to week (+1.24× that swing) · 31 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -46% to 104%
Fourth Down room →Eagles—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 33.1%.
Commanders—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 28.9%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 38%
Tendencies room →Eagles23.5%inside their normal wobble · +5.2 vs their 18.4%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.67× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Commanders16.2%right on their number · +1.0 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
WAS's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 71.0%, 15.9 points above their season mean of 55.0% and 1.2 times their own 12.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
53 dressed · 8 never used
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Washington Commanders
53 dressed · 9 never used
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Who moved the needle
Passing · PHI
28/33, 221 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
6.0 expected points added · +14.3% completion over expected
Passing · WAS
12/27, 91 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-18.6 expected points added · -20.1% completion over expected
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(10:58) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep middle intended for 86-Z.Ertz INTERCEPTED by 22-D.Everett at WAS 7. 22-D.Everett to WAS 31 for 24 yards (65-L.Johnson).
Q1 10:58 · Eagles · 3rd & 5 at WAS 23 · gained nothing · -5.43 EP · −14.1% win probability
140 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 148 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 148 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
4 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 87 yards from the PHI 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
148 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
148 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Eagles3
Commanders0Eagles9Commanders0Eagles10Commanders0Eagles16Commanders0Eagles17Commanders0Eagles23Commanders0Eagles24Commanders0Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Eagles at Commanders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 28/33 | 221 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +6.0 |
| Nate Sudfeld | 1/1 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wendell Smallwood | 12 | 53 | 4.4 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Josh Adams | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 5 | 5 | 59 | 1 | 15% | +6.6 |
| Nelson Agholor | 5 | 6 | 40 | 2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasul Douglas | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Malcolm Jenkins | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nigel Bradham |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Johnson | 12/27 | 91 | 0 | 1 | 4 | −18.6 |
| Tress Way | 1/1 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2018_17_PHI_WAS
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -6 and covered, winning by 24.
Total closed 43; the game landed 24 — under by 19.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Darren Sproles | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Nick Foles | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | +2.0 |
| Nate Sudfeld | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | −2.2 |
| 18% |
| +5.9 |
| Josh Adams | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 9% | +2.9 |
| Golden Tate | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 18% | −0.2 |
| Dallas Goedert | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 9% | +1.1 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 12% | +2.3 |
| Zach Ertz | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 12% | −5.7 |
| Darren Sproles | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 9% | −0.2 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| Fletcher Cox | 4 | 0 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Avonte Maddox | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cre'von LeBlanc | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamu Grugier-Hill | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Graham | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| LaRoy Reynolds | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| +2.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Thompson | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Josh Johnson | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 | −2.5 |
| Adrian Peterson | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −2.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Doctson | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 15% | −0.2 |
| Michael Floyd | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 11% | −0.1 |
| Chris Thompson | 5 | 8 | 14 | 0 | 30% | −3.2 |
| Matt Flanagan | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 4% | +0.8 |
| Darvin Kidsy | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 7% | +2.0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 30% | −6.4 |
| Jehu Chesson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +2.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Brown | 9 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deshazor Everett | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Mason Foster | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaun Dion Hamilton | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ha Ha Clinton-Dix | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Allen | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Norman | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fabian Moreau | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Greg Stroman | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pernell McPhee | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
