2018 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 30, 2018 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

San Francisco 49ers

Los Angeles RamsWinner

LA -10.5 ✓O 50.5 ✓Rams closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 16.

Los Angeles Rams 48–32. Biggest swing: Q1 13:19, SF +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 13:19SF — LA SF ball · 3rd & 1LA 82%

(13:19) 44-K.Juszczyk right end to LA 49 for no gain (26-M.Barron, 90-M.Brockers). FUMBLES (26-M.Barron), RECOVERED by LA-21-A.Talib at LA 46. 21-A.Talib to SF 7 for 47 yards (85-G.Kittle).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 13:19SF +11% win prob(13:19) 44-K.Juszczyk right end to LA 49 for no gain (26-M.Barron, 90-M.Brockers). FUMBLES (26-M.Barron), RECOVERED by LA-21-A.Talib at LA 46. 21-A.Talib to SF 7 for 47 yards (85-G.Kittle).
Q2 · 12:45SF +3% win prob(12:45) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short right intended for 13-R.James INTERCEPTED by 58-C.Littleton at SF 19. 58-C.Littleton for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 12:36SF +2% win prob(12:36) 35-C.Anderson left guard to SF 3 for -1 yards (54-C.Marsh; 36-M.Harris).
Q1 · 4:40LA +2% win prob(4:40) 46-A.Morris left tackle ran ob at LA 19 for 51 yards (22-M.Peters).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Rams
Offensive plays	58	68
Total yards	395 (edge)	385
Yards per play	6.8 (edge)	5.7
Expected points added / play	-0.05	0.14 (edge)
Success rate	43%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	64%	41%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05	0.54 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23	-0.14 (edge)
Third downs	3/11	10/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	0 (edge)
Turnovers	4	0 (edge)

49ers outgained Rams 395–385 but lost the turnover battle 4–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Nick MullensQB

23/33, 282 yds, 3 TD, 3 INT

1.9 expected points added · +5.5% completion over expected

Passing · LA

Jared GoffQB

15/26, 199 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

14.2 expected points added · +2.1% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

C.J. AndersonRB

23 att, 132 yds, 1 TD

2.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Alfred MorrisRB

16 att, 111 yds, 1 TD

3.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

George KittleTE

9/14 for 149 yds, 1 TD

42% of team targets · 7.0 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Brandin CooksWR

5/9 for 62 yds, 2 TD

33% of team targets · 6.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 27	5	24	1:55	Fumble
2	LA	SF 7	4	7	1:08	Touchdown
3	SF	SF 25	4	0	0:56	Interception
4	LA	SF 13	3	12	0:19	Touchdown
5	SF	SF 25	10	54	4:24	Interception
6	LA	LA 20	4	2	1:38	Punt
7	SF	SF 30	5	58	2:29	Turnover on downs
8	LA	LA 25	10	36	3:32	Punt
9	SF	SF 6	3	6	1:02	Defensive touchdown
10	SF	SF 25	5	9	1:27	Punt
11	LA	LA 14	12	86	5:10	Touchdown
12	SF	SF 25	10	55	3:53	Touchdown
13	LA	LA 25	14	65	2:07	Turnover on downs
14	LA	LA 25	7	75	2:41	Touchdown
15	SF	SF 25	10	60	3:56	Touchdown
16	LA	LA 25	11	60	5:25	Touchdown
17	SF	SF 25	6	3	2:33	Punt
18	LA	LA 48	7	19	3:41	Turnover on downs
19	SF	SF 25	11	75	4:50	Touchdown
20	LA	LA 25	10	24	4:17	Turnover on downs
21	SF	LA 49	3	51	0:17	Touchdown
22	LA	SF 45	5	-1	1:52	Punt
23	SF	SF 17	1	0	0:28	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 86 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nick Mullens	23/33	282	3	3	3	1.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alfred Morris	16	111	6.9	1	3.9
Kyle Juszczyk	2	9	4.5	0	-8.0
Jeffery Wilson	3	9	3.0	0	-0.8
Nick Mullens	1	-2	-2.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
George Kittle	9	14	149	1	42%	7.0
Kendrick Bourne	5	6	59	1	18%	5.7
Richie James	3	5	32	1	15%	-7.1
Trent Taylor	3	4	17	0	12%	0.3
Kyle Juszczyk	1	2	15	0	6%	0.2
Ross Dwelley	1	1	6	0	3%	-0.4
Alfred Morris	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Fred Warner	5	5	0
Elijah Lee	6	3	0
Marcell Harris	2	4	0
Ronald Blair	2	3	0
K'Waun Williams	4	1	0
Cassius Marsh	2	2	0
D.J. Jones	3	0	0
Solomon Thomas	1	2	0
D.J. Reed	2	1	0
Antone Exum	1	2	1

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	15/26	199	4	0	0	14.2
Sean Mannion	2/3	23	0	0	0	1.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
C.J. Anderson	23	132	5.7	1	2.6
John Kelly	15	30	2.0	0	-6.7
Robert Woods	1	1	1.0	0	-0.5
Jared Goff	1	0	0.0	0	-1.1
Sean Mannion	2	-8	-4.0	0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandin Cooks	5	9	62	2	33%	6.4
Josh Reynolds	4	7	55	2	26%	4.7
Tyler Higbee	1	1	36	0	4%	2.2
Robert Woods	2	3	24	0	11%	2.5
C.J. Anderson	3	3	22	0	11%	0.3
John Kelly	1	2	18	0	7%	1.3
Johnny Mundt	1	1	5	0	4%	-0.1
Gerald Everett	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
John Johnson	5	3	0.0	0	1
Aqib Talib	3	2	0.0	0	0
Mark Barron	3	2	1.0	0	0
Cory Littleton	3	1	0.0	2	2
Marqui Christian	2	2	0.0	0	0
Dante Fowler	3	0	0.0	0	0
Samson Ebukam	1	2	0.0	0	0
Troy Hill	2	0	0.0	0	0
Marcus Peters	2	0	0.0	0	1
Matt Longacre	1	0	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -10.5
Closing total: 50.5
SF moneyline: +385
LA moneyline: -450

Rams closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 16.

Total closed 50.5; the game landed 80 — over by 29.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 65°F, wind 3 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: SF 7 days · LA 7 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Sean McVay

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.