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2018 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 30, 2018 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Final
49ersSan Francisco32
BY 16final margin
RamsLos Angeles48
San Francisco 49ers 32 at Los Angeles Rams 48. Final.
Rams -10.5 ✓O 50.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 17
Los Angeles Rams 48, 49ers 32 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 13:19, 3rd and 1, on Kyle Juszczyk — 11.2 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:19 · 3rd and 1
Kyle Juszczyk
Rams
(13:19) 44-K.Juszczyk right end to LA 49 for no gain (26-M.Barron, 90-M.Brockers). FUMBLES (26-M.Barron), RECOVERED by LA-21-A.Talib at LA 46. 21-A.Talib to SF 7 for 47 yards (85-G.Kittle).
Rams closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 16.
Los Angeles Rams 48–32. Biggest swing: Q1 13:19, Rams +11.2% win probability on one snap.
11.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
C.J. Anderson49ersQ1 12:36(12:36) 35-C.Anderson left guard to SF 3 for -1 yards (54-C.Marsh; 36-M.Harris).
2.2pts
Cory LittletonRamsQ2 12:45(12:45) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short right intended for 13-R.James INTERCEPTED by 58-C.Littleton at SF 19. 58-C.Littleton for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2.8pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Rams won this one — no giveaways, against 49ers at 4 giveaways.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Rams won this one — 10 of 14 on third down, against 49ers at 3 of 11 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Rams won this one — +0.54 expected points per dropback, against 49ers at +0.05 expected points per dropback.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Rams won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against 49ers at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on 49ers169 of 179 plays carry both curves
Q1 · 13:1949ers 0 — Rams 0SF ball · 3rd & 1LA 82%
49ers 18%Rams 82%
(13:19) 44-K.Juszczyk right end to LA 49 for no gain (26-M.Barron, 90-M.Brockers). FUMBLES (26-M.Barron), RECOVERED by LA-21-A.Talib at LA 46. 21-A.Talib to SF 7 for 47 yards (85-G.Kittle).
Swing +11.2 for RamsExpected points +7.87 for RamsThe model had 49ers 27 points higher than the market did.play 6
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:19SF +11% win prob(13:19) 44-K.Juszczyk right end to LA 49 for no gain (26-M.Barron, 90-M.Brockers). FUMBLES (26-M.Barron), RECOVERED by LA-21-A.Talib at LA 46. 21-A.Talib to SF 7 for 47 yards (85-G.Kittle).
2nd · 12:45SF +3% win prob(12:45) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short right intended for 13-R.James INTERCEPTED by 58-C.Littleton at SF 19. 58-C.Littleton for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:36SF +2% win prob(12:36) 35-C.Anderson left guard to SF 3 for -1 yards (54-C.Marsh; 36-M.Harris).
1st · 4:40LA +2% win prob(4:40) 46-A.Morris left tackle ran ob at LA 19 for 51 yards (22-M.Peters).
1st · 11:10SF +2% win prob(11:10) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short right intended for 13-R.James INTERCEPTED by 58-C.Littleton [56-D.Fowler] at SF 35. 58-C.Littleton pushed ob at SF 7 for 28 yards (74-J.Staley). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short right intended for 13-R.James INTERCEPTED by 58-C.Littleton [56-D.Fowler] at SF 35. 58-C.Littleton to SF 13 for 22 yards (13-R.James). SF-41-J.Wilson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. SF #41 J.Wilson - Shoulder Injury
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brandin Cooks's 3-yard touchdown catch with 12:03 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 12 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:03Brandin Cooks·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared GoffLead never changed again+70–7
3rd3:05Josh Reynolds·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+717–45
4th11:49Greg Zuerlein·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+317–48
4th7:02Kendrick Bourne·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Mullensfrom Nick Mullens+724–48
4th2:30George Kittle·43-yd TD catch43-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Mullensfrom Nick Mullens · two-point good+832–48
13 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
49erscategory by categoryRams
49ers2–7Rams
395Total yards385
6.8Yards per play5.7
43%Success rate51%
27%Third-down rate71%
3Red-zone touchdowns4
8Explosive plays9
19First downs25
3Sacks taken0
4Turnovers0
The read
Rams ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.54 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.0549ers: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.14Rams: +0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.0549ers: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.54Rams: +0.54 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.2349ers: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.14Rams: −0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 58 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Rams’s 68 at 41%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 6, Rams 6.
Note49ers outgained Rams 395-385 but lost the turnover battle 4-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 17Against their seasonOver Expected
LA's pass rate over expected, −15.8 pts, is past their previous low of −7.8 pts in week 16 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
2.1 times their own weekly swing below their number.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
LA's early-down pass rate, 35.8%, is past their previous low of 39.3% in week 16 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 23 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.3 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−1.18× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Rams24.3%
inside their normal wobble · +7.2 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -15.8 pts, 17.5 points below their season mean of 1.6 pts and 2.1 times their own 8.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
53 dressed · 9 never used
74Joe StaleyT · Every snap100%62 snaps
58Weston RichburgC · Every snap100%62 snaps
69Mike McGlincheyOT · Every snap100%62 snaps
—Michael PersonG · Every snap100%62 snaps
4Nick MullensQB · Every snap100%62 snaps
85George KittleTE · Full-time98%61 snaps
13Richie JamesWR · Full-time94%58 snaps
84Kendrick BourneWR · Full-time94%58 snaps
46Alfred MorrisRB · Heavy rotation71%44 snaps
44Kyle JuszczykRB · Heavy rotation65%40 snaps
75Laken TomlinsonG · Heavy rotation52%32 snaps
65Joshua GarnettOG · Rotational48%30 snaps
81Trent TaylorWR · Rotational32%20 snaps
82Ross DwelleyTE · Situational24%15 snaps
41Jeff WilsonRB · Situational10%6 snaps
14Max McCaffreyWR · Situational8%5 snaps
43Matt DayesRB · Situational2%1 snap
76Garry GilliamOT · Situational2%1 snap
19Steven DunbarWR · Situational2%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Mike PersonCTyree RobinsonDBSheldon DayDTEarl MitchellNTErik MagnusonOTC.J. BeathardQBShon ColemanTGarrett CelekTEMarquise GoodwinWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Juszczyk right−18% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:19) 44-K.Juszczyk right end to LA 49 for no gain (26-M.Barron, 90-M.Brockers). FUMBLES (26-M.Barron), RECOVERED by LA-21-A.Talib at LA 46. 21-A.Talib to SF 7 for 47 yards (85-G.Kittle).
Q1 13:19 · 49ers · 3rd & 1 at LA 49 · gained nothing · -7.87 EP · −18.3% win probability
168 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 86 yards from the LA 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
47%
Yards
770
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47+0.3151%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR28+0.4454%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.1920%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR15-0.3773%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.0778%
49ers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Rams1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter46 plays
Offense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost5 plays, from the 49ers 27 to the Rams 49
49ers0Rams6
49ers0Rams7
Touchdown4 plays, from the 49ers 7 to the 49ers 2
Intercepted5 plays
49ers0Rams13
49ers0Rams14
Touchdown3 plays, from the 49ers 13 to the 49ers 1
Intercepted11 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Rams 16
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Rams 27
49ers3Rams14
Field goal5 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Rams 12
The period ended7 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 49
2nd quarter56 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 44 to the Rams 49
49ers3Rams20
Touchdown4 plays, from the 49ers 6 to the 49ers 12
49ers3Rams21
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 34
49ers3Rams27
49ers3Rams28
Touchdown12 plays, from the Rams 14 to the 49ers 18
49ers9Rams28
49ers10Rams28
Touchdown12 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Rams 9
49ers10Rams31
Field goal16 plays, from the Rams 25 to the 49ers 10
3rd quarter37 plays
49ers10Rams37
49ers10Rams38
Touchdown7 plays, from the Rams 25 to the 49ers 29
49ers16Rams38
49ers17Rams38
Touchdown10 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Rams 1
49ers17Rams44
49ers17Rams45
Touchdown12 plays, from the Rams 25 to the 49ers 2
Punt6 plays
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter40 plays
49ers17Rams48
Field goal6 plays, from midfield to the 49ers 29
49ers23Rams48
49ers24Rams48
Touchdown12 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Rams 2
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Rams 25 to the 49ers 47
49ers30Rams48
49ers32Rams48
Touchdown3 plays, from the Rams 49 to the Rams 43
Punt5 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
49erscategory by categoryRams
49ers0
Rams6
