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(11:14) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 13-T.Hilton to HOU 6 for 38 yards (55-B.McKinney) [99-J.Watt].
Swing −12.0 for TexansExpected points −3.31 for TexansThe model had Texans 3 points higher than the market did.play 11
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:14HOU +12% win prob(11:14) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 13-T.Hilton to HOU 6 for 38 yards (55-B.McKinney) [99-J.Watt].
1st · 13:34HOU +9% win prob(13:34) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 13-T.Hilton to IND 35 for 12 yards (24-J.Joseph).
1st · 14:20IND +6% win prob(14:20) 25-M.Mack up the middle to IND 23 for -2 yards (99-J.Watt).
2nd · 12:27IND +6% win prob(12:27) 12-A.Luck pass short left intended for 25-M.Mack INTERCEPTED by 92-B.Dunn (99-J.Watt) at HOU 15. 92-B.Dunn to HOU 15 for no gain.
1st · 11:52HOU +5% win prob(11:52) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 13-T.Hilton ran ob at HOU 44 for 13 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
1st · 9:35IND +4% win prob(9:35) 8-T.Daniel punts 40 yards to IND 26, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.
1st · 9:28
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Eric Ebron's 6-yard touchdown catch with 10:37 left in the 1st put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:37Eric Ebron·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Andrew Luckfrom Andrew LuckLead never changed again+77–0
Colts ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.13Colts: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.10Texans: −0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.15Colts: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.14Texans: −0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.11Colts: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.15Texans: +0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 64 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Texans’s 68 at 84%. Red-zone trips: Colts 4, Texans 2.
NoteColts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's early-down pass rate, 80.0%, sat 27.4 points above their season number of 52.6% — they passed early by 2.4 times their own 11.6-point weekly swing.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points.
HOU's fourth-and-short go rate, 57.1%, sat 37.6 points above their season number of 19.6% — they went for it by 2.3 times their own 16.4-point weekly swing.
7 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 16.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2018 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · −0.2 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Texans10.8%
inside their normal wobble · −2.7 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteHOU's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 80.0%, 27.4 points above their season mean of 52.6% and 2.4 times their own 11.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
53 dressed · 9 never used
74Anthony CastonzoT · Every snap100%73 snaps
56Quenton NelsonG · Every snap100%73 snaps
64Mark GlowinskiG · Every snap100%73 snaps
78Ryan KellyC · Every snap100%73 snaps
72Braden SmithG · Every snap100%73 snaps
12Andrew LuckQB · Every snap100%73 snaps
25Marlon MackRB · Full-time81%59 snaps
13T.Y. HiltonWR · Heavy rotation78%57 snaps
15Dontrelle InmanWR · Heavy rotation70%51 snaps
80Chester RogersWR · Heavy rotation60%44 snaps
81Mo Alie-CoxTE · Heavy rotation56%41 snaps
85Eric EbronTE · Rotational49%36 snaps
14Zach PascalWR · Rotational45%33 snaps
73Joe HaegT · Situational22%16 snaps
45Ryan HewittTE · Situational12%9 snaps
21Nyheim HinesRB · Situational12%9 snaps
20Jordan WilkinsRB · Situational10%7 snaps
10Daurice FountainWR · Situational4%3 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Chris MiltonCBTyquan LewisDTJ.J. WilcoxFSAhmad ThomasILBLe'Raven ClarkOGJosh AndrewsOGJacoby BrissettQBJonathan WilliamsRBRyan GrantWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Luck pass+13% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:14) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 13-T.Hilton to HOU 6 for 38 yards (55-B.McKinney) [99-J.Watt].
Q1 11:14 · Colts · 2nd & 10 at HOU 44 · gained 38 · +3.31 EP · +13.3% win probability
163 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 89 yards from the HOU 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
42%
Yards
744
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR58-0.0578%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.2150%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.4578%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.6243%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.0420%
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Colts6Texans0
Colts7Texans0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Texans 6
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 34
Colts13Texans0
Colts14Texans0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Colts 26 to the Texans 2
Intercepted11 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Colts 45
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter45 plays
Intercepted5 plays, from the Texans 40 to the Texans 17
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 15 to the Texans 19
Colts20Texans0
Colts21Texans0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Texans 18
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the Texans 27 to the Colts 9
The period ended12 plays, from the Colts 9 to the Texans 41
3rd quarter45 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 42
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 12 to the Colts 28
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 24 to the Texans 32
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 23 to the Colts 28
Punt9 plays, from the Texans 28 to the Colts 37
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 19 to the Texans 43
The period ended8 plays, from the Texans 11 to the Texans 40
4th quarter42 plays
Colts21Texans6
Colts21Texans7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Texans 45 to the Colts 6
Punt8 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Texans 45
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Texans 11 to the Colts 24
The period ended13 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Texans 21
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
