2018 Wild Card · Sat, Jan 5, 2019 · NRG Stadium

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

Houston Texans

HOU -2 upsetU 48.5 ✓DomeTexans closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Indianapolis Colts 21–7. Biggest swing: Q1 11:14, HOU +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 11:14IND — HOU IND ball · 2nd & 10HOU 51%

(11:14) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 13-T.Hilton to HOU 6 for 38 yards (55-B.McKinney) [99-J.Watt].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 11:14HOU +12% win prob(11:14) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 13-T.Hilton to HOU 6 for 38 yards (55-B.McKinney) [99-J.Watt].
Q1 · 13:34HOU +9% win prob(13:34) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 13-T.Hilton to IND 35 for 12 yards (24-J.Joseph).
Q1 · 14:20IND +6% win prob(14:20) 25-M.Mack up the middle to IND 23 for -2 yards (99-J.Watt).
Q2 · 12:27IND +6% win prob(12:27) 12-A.Luck pass short left intended for 25-M.Mack INTERCEPTED by 92-B.Dunn (99-J.Watt) at HOU 15. 92-B.Dunn to HOU 15 for no gain.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Texans
Offensive plays	64	68
Total yards	425 (edge)	322
Yards per play	6.6 (edge)	4.7
Expected points added / play	0.13 (edge)	-0.10
Success rate	47%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	58%	84%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.15 (edge)	-0.14
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.11	0.15 (edge)
Third downs	9/13 (edge)	3/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	20
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1	1

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

29/49, 235 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-12.6 expected points added · -10.1% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Andrew LuckQB

19/32, 222 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

4.1 expected points added · -2.1% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Marlon MackRB

24 att, 148 yds, 1 TD

2.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

8 att, 76 yds, 0 TD

5.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Keke CouteeWR

11/14 for 110 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 7.4 expected points added

Receiving · IND

T.Y. HiltonWR

5/10 for 85 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 5.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 25	11	70	4:28	Touchdown
2	HOU	HOU 25	5	9	1:04	Punt
3	IND	IND 26	10	75	5:25	Touchdown
4	HOU	HOU 25	11	30	3:40	Interception
5	IND	50	6	33	3:03	Interception
6	HOU	HOU 15	4	9	2:33	Punt
7	IND	IND 35	8	65	3:23	Touchdown
8	HOU	HOU 27	12	69	5:04	Turnover on downs
9	IND	IND 9	7	34	1:20	End of half
10	HOU	HOU 25	6	17	1:19	Punt
11	IND	IND 12	7	16	3:06	Punt
12	HOU	HOU 24	4	8	1:30	Punt
13	IND	IND 23	4	10	0:58	Punt
14	HOU	HOU 28	8	26	3:33	Punt
15	IND	IND 19	6	38	2:24	Punt
16	HOU	HOU 11	17	89	6:13	Touchdown
17	IND	IND 25	8	30	2:58	Punt
18	HOU	HOU 11	11	65	3:50	Turnover on downs
19	IND	IND 25	9	54	4:09	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 89 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andrew Luck	19/32	222	2	1	0	4.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Marlon Mack	24	148	6.2	1	2.3
Andrew Luck	8	29	3.6	0	-1.7
Zach Pascal	1	14	14.0	0	1.1
Jordan Wilkins	2	9	4.5	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
T.Y. Hilton	5	10	85	0	32%	5.2
Dontrelle Inman	4	4	53	1	13%	4.6
Chester Rogers	4	5	46	0	16%	0.2
Eric Ebron	3	6	26	1	19%	2.3
Marlon Mack	2	3	6	0	10%	-5.8
Zach Pascal	1	3	6	0	10%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Shaquille Leonard	5	8	0.0	0	1
Clayton Geathers	5	4	0.0	0	1
Anthony Walker	2	4	0.0	0	0
Kenny Moore	5	1	1.0	1	2
Quincy Wilson	4	1	0.0	0	0
Pierre Desir	3	1	0.0	0	0
Jabaal Sheard	1	2	0.0	0	0
Malik Hooker	1	1	0.0	0	0
George Odum	1	1	0.0	0	0
Hassan Ridgeway	0	2	0.5	0	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	29/49	235	1	1	3	-12.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Deshaun Watson	8	76	9.5	5.8
Lamar Miller	5	18	3.6	0.0
Alfred Blue	2	8	4.0	0.4
D'Onta Foreman	1	3	3.0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Keke Coutee	11	14	110	1	30%	7.4
Lamar Miller	8	10	63	0	21%	0.1
DeAndre Hopkins	5	10	37	0	21%	-4.5
Alfred Blue	2	2	11	0	4%	0.5
Jordan Akins	2	3	8	0	6%	-1.7
Ryan Griffin	1	5	6	0	11%	-5.0
D'Onta Foreman	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5
Vyncint Smith	0	2	0	0	4%	-4.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Benardrick McKinney	5	4	0
Zach Cunningham	6	2	1
Tyrann Mathieu	7	0	0
Johnathan Joseph	4	2	0
D.J. Reader	3	3	0
Jadeveon Clowney	2	3	0
Kareem Jackson	3	1	0
Justin Reid	2	1	2
Dylan Cole	1	2	0
Andre Hal	1	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: HOU -2
Closing total: 48.5
IND moneyline: +112
HOU moneyline: -124

Texans closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 28 — under by 20.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: IND 6 days · HOU 6 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs Bill O'Brien

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.