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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:19 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 6, 2019 · M&T Bank Stadium
Final
ChargersLos Angeles23
BY 6final margin
RavensBaltimore17
Los Angeles Chargers 23 at Baltimore Ravens 17. Final.
Ravens -3 upset
The verdict · 2018 Wild Card
Los Angeles Chargers 23, Ravens 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 10:37, 2nd and 9, on Virgil Green — 12.4 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 10:37 · 2nd and 9
Virgil Green
Ravens
(10:37) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 88-V.Green to LAC 30 for 8 yards (48-P.Onwuasor, 23-T.Jefferson). FUMBLES (48-P.Onwuasor), RECOVERED by BAL-57-C.Mosley at LAC 33. 57-C.Mosley pushed ob at LAC 21 for 12 yards (75-M.Schofield).
U 43 ✓
Ravens closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Los Angeles Chargers 23–17. Biggest swing: Q3 10:37, Ravens +12.4% win probability on one snap.
12.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kenneth DixonChargersQ1 9:39(9:39) (Shotgun) 30-K.Dixon left guard to BAL 12 for -2 yards (54-M.Ingram). FUMBLES (54-M.Ingram), RECOVERED by LAC-31-A.Phillips at BAL 15. 31-A.Phillips to BAL 15 for no gain (87-M.Williams).
9.7pts
Adrian PhillipsChargersQ2 8:57(8:57) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 10-C.Moore INTERCEPTED by 31-A.Phillips (26-C.Hayward) at LAC 41. 31-A.Phillips to LAC 41 for no gain (10-C.Moore).
8.5pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Chargers won this one — -0.19 expected points per carry, against Ravens at -0.74 expected points per carry.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Chargers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Ravens at 3 giveaways.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Chargers won this one — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Ravens at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — 5 chunk plays, against Chargers at 2 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Chargers168 of 180 plays carry both curves
(10:37) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 88-V.Green to LAC 30 for 8 yards (48-P.Onwuasor, 23-T.Jefferson). FUMBLES (48-P.Onwuasor), RECOVERED by BAL-57-C.Mosley at LAC 33. 57-C.Mosley pushed ob at LAC 21 for 12
Swing +12.4 for RavensExpected points +4.72 for RavensThe model had Chargers 4 points higher than the market did.play 96
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 10:37LAC +12% win prob(10:37) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 88-V.Green to LAC 30 for 8 yards (48-P.Onwuasor, 23-T.Jefferson). FUMBLES (48-P.Onwuasor), RECOVERED by BAL-57-C.Mosley at LAC 33. 57-C.Mosley pushed ob at LAC 21 for 12 yards (75-M.Schofield).
1st · 9:39LAC +10% win prob(9:39) (Shotgun) 30-K.Dixon left guard to BAL 12 for -2 yards (54-M.Ingram). FUMBLES (54-M.Ingram), RECOVERED by LAC-31-A.Phillips at BAL 15. 31-A.Phillips to BAL 15 for no gain (87-M.Williams).
2nd · 8:57LAC +9% win prob(8:57) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 10-C.Moore INTERCEPTED by 31-A.Phillips (26-C.Hayward) at LAC 41. 31-A.Phillips to LAC 41 for no gain (10-C.Moore).
4th · 0:54LAC +8% win prob(:54) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 41 yards to BAL 34, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.
4th · 0:28LAC +8% win prob(:28) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 38 for -9 yards (42-U.Nwosu). FUMBLES (42-U.Nwosu), RECOVERED by LAC-54-M.Ingram at BAL 29. 54-M.Ingram to BAL 29 for no gain (73-M.Yanda).
3rd · 4:28LAC +7% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Michael Badgley's 21-yard field goal with 7:03 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:03Michael Badgley·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder D.Jones · snap M.WindtLead never changed again+33–0
1st1:14Michael Badgley·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder D.Jones · snap M.Windt+36–0
2nd3:26Michael Badgley·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder D.Jones · snap M.Windt+39–0
2nd0:04Michael Badgley·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder D.Jones · snap M.Windt+312–0
3rd8:34Justin Tucker·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+312–3
Chargers ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.74 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.15Chargers: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.27Ravens: −0.27 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.12Chargers: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.03Ravens: −0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.19Chargers: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.74Ravens: −0.74 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 66 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Ravens’s 57 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 3, Ravens 3.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.27.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's sack or hit rate, 26.3%, sat 13.4 points above their season number of 12.9% — they got home by 2.4 times their own 5.6-point weekly swing.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2018 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 23 pts
off script — got home · +13.4 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (+2.40× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Ravens22.2%
inside their normal wobble · +6.2 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+0.69× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLAC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 26.3%, 13.4 points above their season mean of 12.9% and 2.4 times their own 5.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Dixon left−13% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(9:39) (Shotgun) 30-K.Dixon left guard to BAL 12 for -2 yards (54-M.Ingram). FUMBLES (54-M.Ingram), RECOVERED by LAC-31-A.Phillips at BAL 15. 31-A.Phillips to BAL 15 for no gain (87-M.Williams).
Q1 9:39 · Ravens · 2nd & 24 at BAL 14 · gained nothing · -4.12 EP · −13.4% win probability
166 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 80 yards from the BAL 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
-0.19
Success rate
36%
Yards
474
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47-0.1166%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.2066%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.7046%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.5763%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.1840%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 21 to the Ravens 42
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 23 to the Chargers 31
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen and seven backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost2 plays
Chargers3Ravens0
Field goal5 plays, from the Ravens 15 to the Ravens 1
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 19 to the Ravens 39
Chargers6Ravens0
Field goal4 plays, from the Ravens 42 to the Ravens 35
The period ended4 plays, from the Ravens 27 to the Ravens 32
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 10 to the Chargers 39
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, one linebacker and seven backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Ravens 23 to the Ravens 44
Chargers9Ravens0
Field goal11 plays, from the Chargers 41 to the Ravens 22
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 31
Chargers12Ravens0
Field goal18 plays, from the Chargers 26 to the Ravens 16
3rd quarter35 plays
No good5 plays, from the Ravens 26 to the Ravens 23
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 31 to the Ravens 33
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Chargers 21 to the Chargers 27
Chargers12Ravens3
Field goal4 plays, from the Chargers 21 to the Chargers 15
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 33
No good5 plays, from the Chargers 40 to the Chargers 32
The period ended9 plays, from the Chargers 40 to the Ravens 1
4th quarter61 plays
Chargers18Ravens3
Chargers20Ravens3
Touchdown3 plays
Punt5 plays
Chargers23Ravens3
Field goal8 plays, from the Ravens 45 to the Ravens 24
Chargers23Ravens9
Chargers23Ravens10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Chargers 31
Punt7 plays, from midfield to the Ravens 44
Chargers23Ravens16
Chargers23Ravens17
Touchdown14 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Chargers 7
Punt9 plays, from the Chargers 22 to the Chargers 26
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Ravens 34 to the Ravens 47
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Chargerscategory by categoryRavens
Chargers3
Ravens0
