For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2018 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 6, 2019 · M&T Bank Stadium

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

23

Baltimore Ravens

17

BAL -3 upsetU 43 ✓

Los Angeles Chargers 23–17. Biggest swing: Q3 10:37, LAC +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3BAL ↑LAC ↓
Q3 · 10:37LAC — BAL LAC ball · 2nd & 9LAC 82%

(10:37) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 88-V.Green to LAC 30 for 8 yards (48-P.Onwuasor, 23-T.Jefferson). FUMBLES (48-P.Onwuasor), RECOVERED by BAL-57-C.Mosley at LAC 33. 57-C.Mosley pushed ob at LAC 21 for 12

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 10:37LAC +12% win prob(10:37) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 88-V.Green to LAC 30 for 8 yards (48-P.Onwuasor, 23-T.Jefferson). FUMBLES (48-P.Onwuasor), RECOVERED by BAL-57-C.Mosley at LAC 33. 57-C.Mosley pushed ob at LAC 21 for 12 yards (75-M.Schofield).
  2. Q1 · 9:39LAC +10% win prob(9:39) (Shotgun) 30-K.Dixon left guard to BAL 12 for -2 yards (54-M.Ingram). FUMBLES (54-M.Ingram), RECOVERED by LAC-31-A.Phillips at BAL 15. 31-A.Phillips to BAL 15 for no gain (87-M.Williams).
  3. Q2 · 8:57LAC +9% win prob(8:57) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 10-C.Moore INTERCEPTED by 31-A.Phillips (26-C.Hayward) at LAC 41. 31-A.Phillips to LAC 41 for no gain (10-C.Moore).
  4. Q4 · 0:54LAC +8% win prob(:54) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 41 yards to BAL 34, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricChargersRavens
Offensive plays6657
Total yards246 (edge)229
Yards per play3.74.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.15 (edge)-0.27
Success rate42% (edge)32%
Dropback rate55%67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.12-0.03 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.19 (edge)-0.74
Third downs6/17 (edge)5/15
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)25 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps12 (edge)11
Sacks taken1 (edge)7
Turnovers1 (edge)3

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.27.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

14/29, 194 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-5.4 expected points added · -10.9% completion over expected

Passing · LAC

Philip RiversQB

22/32, 160 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-1.4 expected points added · +8.6% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

9 att, 54 yds, 0 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Melvin GordonRB

17 att, 40 yds, 1 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Kenneth DixonRB

3/3 for 53 yds, 0 TD

12% of team targets · 4.2 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Willie SneadWR

3/6 for 50 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1BALBAL 218213:06Punt
2LACLAC 23471:33Punt
3BALBAL 28200:46Fumble
4LACBAL 15562:36Turnover on downs
5BALBAL 198133:38Punt
6LACBAL 42472:13Turnover on downs
7BALBAL 27581:54Punt
8LACLAC 107293:57Punt
9BALBAL 234211:26Interception
10LACLAC 419275:29Turnover on downs
11BALBAL 25561:34Punt
12LACLAC 2612531:48Turnover on downs
13LACBAL 26531:15Turnover on downs
14BALBAL 314-102:03Punt
15LACLAC 212141:16Fumble
16BALLAC 21461:56Turnover on downs
17LACLAC 25541:36Punt
18BALLAC 404182:32Turnover on downs
19LACLAC 4011624:38Touchdown
20BALBAL 235-91:35Punt
21LACBAL 457164:00Turnover on downs
22BALBAL 2510752:36Touchdown
23LAC50551:46Punt
24BALBAL 2013852:48Touchdown
25LACLAC 225131:14Punt
26BALBAL 343-50:26Fumble
27LACBAL 29100:19End of game

0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 85 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Philip Rivers22/32160001-1.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Melvin Gordon17402.41-0.6
Austin Ekeler11292.60-4.8
Philip Rivers3155.000.9
Justin Jackson252.50-0.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Mike Williams2542017%1.6
Keenan Allen4637021%0.3
Antonio Gates4435014%4.0
Austin Ekeler4414014%-0.4
Travis Benjamin3311010%-1.5
Tyrell Williams249014%-3.0
Virgil Green11803%-4.7
Melvin Gordon11303%-0.2
Derek Watt11103%-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Melvin Ingram612.000
Jahleel Addae240.000
Adrian Phillips230.013
Derwin James500.000
Desmond King311.000
Casey Hayward310.001
Justin Jones221.000
Rayshawn Jenkins210.000
Uchenna Nwosu301.000
Isaac Rochell111.000

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Lamar Jackson14/29194217-5.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Lamar Jackson9546.00-0.7
Gus Edwards8232.90-3.4
Kenneth Dixon6132.20-6.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Kenneth Dixon3353012%4.2
Willie Snead3650023%4.1
Michael Crabtree2438215%6.5
Mark Andrews3731027%-2.2
John Brown2314012%0.3
Maxx Williams11804%0.1
Hayden Hurst01004%-1.1
Chris Moore01004%-3.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
C.J. Mosley660.000
Tony Jefferson530.000
Jimmy Smith600.001
Eric Weddle600.000
Patrick Onwuasor411.000
Brandon Carr310.000
Chris Moore300.000
Matt Judon210.000
Kenny Young200.000
Brandon Williams110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BAL -3
Closing total
43
LAC moneyline
+140
BAL moneyline
-155

Ravens closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43; the game landed 40 — under by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
52°F, wind 12 mph
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
LAC 7 days · BAL 7 days
Coaches
Anthony Lynn vs John Harbaugh