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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Eagles160 of 173 plays carry both curves
(:10) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-T.Hester), Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Swing −47.1 for BearsExpected points −2.39 for BearsThe model had Eagles 5 points higher than the market did.play 171
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:10PHI +47% win prob(:10) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-T.Hester), Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
4th · 1:01CHI +17% win prob(1:01) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 19-G.Tate for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-L.Floyd].
4th · 0:44CHI +16% win prob(:44) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 12-A.Robinson II to PHI 33 for 25 yards (29-A.Maddox) [56-C.Long].
4th · 1:55CHI +15% win prob(1:55) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short middle to 17-A.Jeffery to CHI 2 for 11 yards (38-A.Amos).
4th · 9:09CHI +14% win prob(9:09) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 12-A.Robinson II for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PHI-29-A.Maddox, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
2nd · 5:27PHI +13% win prob(5:27) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep right intended for 13-N.Agholor INTERCEPTED by 38-A.Amos [96-A.Hicks] at CHI -3. Touchback.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Golden Tate's 2-yard touchdown catch with 1:01 left in the 4th put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:37Jake Elliott·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Lovato+33–0
2nd9:42Cody Parkey·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+33–3
2nd0:03Cody Parkey·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+33–6
3rd5:26Dallas Goedert·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Folesfrom Nick Foles+710–6
4th14:17Cody Parkey·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+310–9
4th1:01Golden Tate·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Folesfrom Nick Foles · two-point no goodLead never changed again+616–15
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categoryBears
Eagles4–5Bears
301Total yards356
4.7Yards per play5.7
39%Success rate40%
46%Third-down rate31%
2Red-zone touchdowns0
5Explosive plays7
20First downs16
1Sacks taken2
2Turnovers0
The read
Bears ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Eagles, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.04Eagles: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.03Bears: +0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.14Eagles: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.08Bears: +0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.37Eagles: −0.37 expected points added per play
−0.11Bears: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 64 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Bears’s 63 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 3, Bears 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2018 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 20 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.7 vs their 18.4%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Bears12.2%
right on their number · −2.5 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCHI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 71.7%, 18.5 points above their season mean of 53.2% and 1.7 times their own 10.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Cody Parkey−41% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:10) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-T.Hester), Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Q4 0:10 · Bears · 4th & 2 at PHI 25 · gained nothing · -2.39 EP · −41.4% win probability
158 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 83 yards from the PHI 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
36%
Yards
656
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.0680%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.1566%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21-0.4657%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.0144%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.0663%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Eagles0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Bears0 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Eagles3Bears0
Field goal11 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Bears 17
Punt11 plays, from the Bears 21 to midfield
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 1 to the Eagles 5
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 48 to the Eagles 42
The period ended6 plays, from the Eagles 7 to the Eagles 18
2nd quarter45 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Bears 40
Eagles3Bears3
Field goal9 plays, from the Bears 35 to the Eagles 18
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Bears 21
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 21
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 32 to the Eagles 36
Eagles3Bears6
Field goal16 plays, from the Bears 11 to the Eagles 11
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Bears 17 to the Eagles 45
Eagles9Bears6
Eagles10Bears6
Touchdown11 plays, from the Eagles 17 to the Bears 10
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 34
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 17 to the Eagles 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
The period ended5 plays, from the Bears 22 to the Eagles 21
4th quarter54 plays
Eagles10Bears9
Field goal2 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Eagles 16
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 26 to the Eagles 35
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Eagles10Bears15
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Eagles 22
Punt8 plays, from the Eagles 14 to the Eagles 29
Punt4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
Eagles16Bears15
Touchdown15 plays, from the Eagles 40 to the Bears 2
FormationWildcatOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
No good9 plays, from the Bears 42 to the Eagles 25
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
