2018 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 6, 2019 · Soldier Field

Philadelphia EaglesWinner

Chicago Bears

CHI -6.5 upsetU 42.5 ✓Bears closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Philadelphia Eagles 16–15 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:10, PHI +47% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:10PHI — CHI CHI ball · 4th & 2CHI 62%

(:10) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-T.Hester), Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:10PHI +47% win prob(:10) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-T.Hester), Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Q4 · 1:01CHI +17% win prob(1:01) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 19-G.Tate for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-L.Floyd].
Q4 · 0:44CHI +16% win prob(:44) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 12-A.Robinson II to PHI 33 for 25 yards (29-A.Maddox) [56-C.Long].
Q4 · 1:55CHI +15% win prob(1:55) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short middle to 17-A.Jeffery to CHI 2 for 11 yards (38-A.Amos).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Eagles	Bears
Offensive plays	64	63
Total yards	301	356 (edge)
Yards per play	4.7	5.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.04	0.03 (edge)
Success rate	39%	40% (edge)
Dropback rate	64%	75%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14 (edge)	0.08
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.37	-0.11 (edge)
Third downs	6/13 (edge)	5/16
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

26/43, 303 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

5.2 expected points added · -1.7% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Nick FolesQB

25/40, 266 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

5.7 expected points added · -2.6% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

Jordan HowardRB

10 att, 35 yds, 0 TD

-2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Darren SprolesRB

13 att, 21 yds, 0 TD

-4.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

Allen RobinsonWR

10/13 for 143 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 8.0 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

Alshon JefferyWR

6/9 for 82 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PHI	PHI 25	11	50	5:28	Turnover on downs
2	CHI	CHI 21	10	24	4:31	Punt
3	PHI	PHI 1	4	2	1:32	Punt
4	CHI	PHI 48	4	6	1:01	Punt
5	PHI	PHI 7	7	53	3:07	Interception
6	CHI	CHI 35	8	32	4:43	Turnover on downs
7	PHI	PHI 25	9	54	4:20	Interception
8	CHI	CHI 20	4	1	1:08	Punt
9	PHI	PHI 32	4	4	1:32	Punt
10	CHI	CHI 11	13	73	2:38	Turnover on downs
11	CHI	CHI 17	10	38	5:17	Punt
12	PHI	PHI 17	8	31	4:23	Touchdown
13	CHI	CHI 25	5	9	1:33	Punt
14	PHI	PHI 17	6	23	2:14	Punt
15	CHI	CHI 22	6	62	2:20	Turnover on downs
16	PHI	PHI 26	5	9	2:13	Punt
17	CHI	CHI 20	7	80	2:56	Touchdown
18	PHI	PHI 14	8	15	2:02	Punt
19	CHI	CHI 26	4	-2	2:14	Punt
20	PHI	PHI 40	13	60	3:52	Touchdown
21	CHI	CHI 42	7	33	0:51	Turnover on downs
22	PHI	PHI 33	1	0	0:05	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 80 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nick Foles	25/40	266	2	2	1	5.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Darren Sproles	13	21	1.6	-4.9
Wendell Smallwood	8	20	2.5	-3.2
Josh Adams	1	2	2.0	-0.4
Nick Foles	1	-1	-1.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Alshon Jeffery	6	9	82	0	23%	5.4
Zach Ertz	5	7	52	0	18%	1.5
Golden Tate	5	8	46	1	20%	4.8
Nelson Agholor	3	6	32	0	15%	-1.5
Wendell Smallwood	2	3	20	0	8%	-4.2
Dallas Goedert	2	4	20	1	10%	1.1
Darren Sproles	2	3	14	0	8%	0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Rasul Douglas	8	0	0.0	1
Nigel Bradham	7	0	0.0	2
Malcolm Jenkins	5	0	0.0	0
Avonte Maddox	5	0	0.0	3
Corey Graham	5	0	0.0	0
Tre Sullivan	4	0	0.0	3
Cre'von LeBlanc	3	0	0.0	1
Jordan Hicks	3	0	0.0	0
Fletcher Cox	1	1	0.0	0
Brandon Graham	1	1	0.5	0

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	26/43	303	1	0	2	5.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jordan Howard	10	35	3.5	-2.0
Taylor Gabriel	2	20	10.0	1.5
Mitchell Trubisky	3	9	3.0	-2.3
Benny Cunningham	1	2	2.0	0.8
Tarik Cohen	1	0	0.0	-0.4
Taquan Mizzell	1	-1	-1.0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Allen Robinson	10	13	143	1	32%	8.0
Taylor Gabriel	4	9	37	0	22%	-1.0
Anthony Miller	3	5	34	0	12%	3.6
Josh Bellamy	1	1	34	0	2%	2.3
Tarik Cohen	3	5	27	0	12%	-0.7
Ben Braunecker	2	2	15	0	5%	0.2
Adam Shaheen	3	4	13	0	10%	-1.1
Jordan Howard	0	1	0	0	2%	-1.6
Taquan Mizzell	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Roquan Smith	6	1	0.0	1	1
Khalil Mack	5	1	0.0	0	0
Adrian Amos	5	1	0.0	1	2
Danny Trevathan	6	0	0.0	0	0
Kyle Fuller	5	0	0.0	0	1
Akiem Hicks	3	1	0.0	0	0
Eddie Goldman	2	2	0.0	0	0
Sherrick McManis	2	1	0.0	0	3
Leonard Floyd	2	1	1.0	0	1
Deon Bush	3	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CHI -6.5
Closing total: 42.5
PHI moneyline: +235
CHI moneyline: -265

Bears closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 31 — under by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Soldier Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 39°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: PHI 7 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches: Doug Pederson vs Matt Nagy