For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Dallas Cowboys 24, Seahawks 22 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 9:43, 1st and 15, on K.J. Wright — 17.7 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 9:43 · 1st and 15
K.J. Wright
Seahawks
(9:43) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right intended for 85-N.Brown INTERCEPTED by 50-K.Wright at SEA 0. Touchback.
Dome
Cowboys closed -2.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Dallas Cowboys 24–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 9:43, Seahawks +17.7% win probability on one snap.
17.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Doug BaldwinSeahawksQ3 4:55(4:55) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 89-D.Baldwin pushed ob at DAL 17 for 22 yards (24-C.Awuzie).
15.0pts
Amari CooperCowboysQ4 14:27(14:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 19-A.Cooper to SEA 16 for 34 yards (33-T.Thompson).
14.4pts
What separated them
Third down
Cowboys won this one — 4 of 11 on third down, against Seahawks at 2 of 13 on third down.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.11 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.10 expected points per carry.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Cowboys at 1 giveaway.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Cowboys won this one — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Seahawks at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Seahawks163 of 173 plays carry both curves
(9:43) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right intended for 85-N.Brown INTERCEPTED by 50-K.Wright at SEA 0. Touchback.
Swing −17.7 for CowboysExpected points −5.24 for CowboysModel and market agree here.play 139
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 9:43SEA +18% win prob(9:43) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right intended for 85-N.Brown INTERCEPTED by 50-K.Wright at SEA 0. Touchback.
3rd · 4:55DAL +15% win prob(4:55) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 89-D.Baldwin pushed ob at DAL 17 for 22 yards (24-C.Awuzie).
4th · 14:27DAL +14% win prob(14:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 19-A.Cooper to SEA 16 for 34 yards (33-T.Thompson).
2nd · 1:11DAL +13% win prob(1:11) 21-E.Elliott right end ran ob at SEA 22 for 44 yards (28-J.Coleman).
2nd · 3:17SEA +12% win prob(3:17) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
4th · 2:33DAL +11% win prob(2:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott up the middle to SEA 1 for 16 yards (33-T.Thompson).
2nd · 9:13
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ezekiel Elliott's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 12:32 left in the 4th put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:54Brett Maher·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.Ladouceur+30–3
2nd7:05Sebastian Janikowski·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+33–3
2nd1:47Sebastian Janikowski·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+36–3
2nd0:28Michael Gallup·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+76–10
4th1:22J.D. McKissic·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson · two-point good+822–24
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categoryCowboys
Seahawks1–6Cowboys
303Total yards382
5.6Yards per play5.8
37%Success rate42%
15%Third-down rate36%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays6
13First downs20
1Sacks taken1
0Turnovers1
The read
Cowboys ahead 6–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Seahawks, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.00Seahawks: −0.00 expected points added per play
+0.03Cowboys: +0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.08Seahawks: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.05Cowboys: −0.05 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Seahawks: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.11Cowboys: +0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 54 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 66 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 3, Cowboys 4.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2018 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 10 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Cowboys10.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −5.3 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (−1.38× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSEA's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 45.8 points above their season mean of 20.8% and 1.7 times their own 26.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
53 dressed · 8 never used
68Justin BrittC · Every snap100%55 snaps
76Duane BrownT · Every snap100%55 snaps
65Germain IfediG · Every snap100%55 snaps
3Russell WilsonQB · Every snap100%55 snaps
78D.J. FlukerOG · Every snap100%55 snaps
64J.R. SweezyG · Every snap100%55 snaps
89Doug BaldwinWR · Full-time95%52 snaps
16Tyler LockettWR · Full-time91%50 snaps
81Nick VannettTE · Heavy rotation65%36 snaps
18Jaron BrownWR · Heavy rotation64%35 snaps
32Chris CarsonRB · Rotational47%26 snaps
84Ed DicksonTE · Rotational38%21 snaps
27Mike DavisRB · Rotational33%18 snaps
74George FantOT · Rotational25%14 snaps
83David MooreWR · Situational22%12 snaps
21J.D. McKissicRB · Situational11%6 snaps
20Rashaad PennyRB · Situational9%5 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Kalan ReedCBRasheem GreenDEBranden JacksonDETre MaddenFBBrett HundleyQBBo ScarbroughRBElijah NkansahTMalik TurnerWR
Dallas Cowboys
53 dressed · 8 never used
73Joe LooneyC · Every snap100%75 snaps
70Zack MartinG · Every snap100%75 snaps
77Tyron SmithT · Every snap100%75 snaps
71La'el CollinsT · Every snap100%75 snaps
4Dak PrescottQB · Every snap100%75 snaps
52Connor WilliamsG · Every snap100%75 snaps
21Ezekiel ElliottRB · Full-time95%71 snaps
19Amari CooperWR · Full-time83%62 snaps
13Michael GallupWR · Heavy rotation75%56 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Heavy rotation68%51 snaps
89Blake JarwinTE · Heavy rotation57%43 snaps
11Cole BeasleyWR · Rotational41%31 snaps
85Noah BrownWR · Rotational37%28 snaps
49Jamize OlawaleFB · Situational12%9 snaps
10Tavon AustinWR · Situational12%9 snaps
80Rico GathersTE · Situational8%6 snaps
75Cameron FlemingT · Situational5%4 snaps
17Allen HurnsWR · Situational4%3 snaps
45Rod SmithRB · Situational3%2 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
David IrvingDEDorance ArmstrongDEDarian ThompsonFSXavier Su'a-FiloGChris CovingtonLBMike WhiteQBCooper RushQBDarius JacksonRB
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Wilson pass+18% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(4:55) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 89-D.Baldwin pushed ob at DAL 17 for 22 yards (24-C.Awuzie).
Q3 4:55 · Seahawks · 4th & 5 at DAL 39 · gained 22 · +4.77 EP · +18.3% win probability
161 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 75 yards from the DAL 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
37%
Yards
683
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.1856%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.0666%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.5736%
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR8-0.4913%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.4375%
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Seahawks0Cowboys3
Field goal11 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Seahawks 21
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 33
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 23 to the Cowboys 48
Punt4 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 27 to the Seahawks 31
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Cowboys 14 to the Cowboys 40
Seahawks3Cowboys3
Field goal6 plays, from the Seahawks 22 to the Cowboys 9
No good9 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Seahawks 40
Seahawks6Cowboys3
Field goal8 plays, from the Seahawks 48 to the Cowboys 24
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxSix defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Seahawks6Cowboys9
Seahawks6Cowboys10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Seahawks 11
No good8 plays, from the Cowboys 49 to the Cowboys 39
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 29
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 29 to the Cowboys 38
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 13 to the Cowboys 45
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 2 to the Cowboys 3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Seahawks12Cowboys10
Seahawks14Cowboys10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cowboys 44 to the Cowboys 4
The period ended5 plays, from the Cowboys 33 to the Cowboys 42
4th quarter49 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Seahawks14Cowboys16
Seahawks14Cowboys17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cowboys 48 to the Seahawks 1
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 29
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Seahawks 38 to the Seahawks 11
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 23
Seahawks14Cowboys23
Seahawks14Cowboys24
Touchdown17 plays, from the Cowboys 37 to the Seahawks 1
Seahawks20Cowboys24
Seahawks22Cowboys24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Cowboys 7
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
