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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:47 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Divisional Round · Sat, Jan 12, 2019 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Final
CowboysDallas22
BY 8final margin
RamsLos Angeles30
Dallas Cowboys 22 at Los Angeles Rams 30. Final.
Rams -7.5 ✓O 48 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Divisional Round
Los Angeles Rams 30, Cowboys 22 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 6:28, 4th and 1, on Ezekiel Elliott — 9.0 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 6:28 · 4th and 1
Ezekiel Elliott
Cowboys
(6:28) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to LA 44 for 5 yards (58-C.Littleton, 43-J.Johnson). PENALTY on LA-22-M.Peters, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LA 44.
Rams closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 8.
Los Angeles Rams 30–22. Biggest swing: Q1 6:28, Cowboys +9.0% win probability on one snap.
9.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tavon AustinRamsQ2 12:18(12:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 10-T.Austin to DAL 38 for -2 yards (50-S.Ebukam).
5.0pts
C.J. AndersonRamsQ2 7:26(7:26) 35-C.Anderson up the middle to DAL 1 for 14 yards (25-X.Woods).
6.0pts
What separated them
Third down
Rams won this one — 5 of 11 on third down, against Cowboys at 1 of 10 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Rams won this one — +0.31 expected points per carry, against Cowboys at -0.08 expected points per carry.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Rams won this one — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cowboys at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Rams won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 6 chunk plays.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Cowboys165 of 177 plays carry both curves
(6:28) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to LA 44 for 5 yards (58-C.Littleton, 43-J.Johnson). PENALTY on LA-22-M.Peters, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LA 44.
Swing −9.0 for RamsExpected points −3.59 for RamsThe model had Cowboys 17 points higher than the market did.play 22
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 6:28LA +9% win prob(6:28) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to LA 44 for 5 yards (58-C.Littleton, 43-J.Johnson). PENALTY on LA-22-M.Peters, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LA 44.
2nd · 7:26LA +6% win prob(7:26) 35-C.Anderson up the middle to DAL 1 for 14 yards (25-X.Woods).
2nd · 12:18DAL +5% win prob(12:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 10-T.Austin to DAL 38 for -2 yards (50-S.Ebukam).
2nd · 3:35LA +5% win prob(3:35) (No Huddle) 30-T.Gurley right guard for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 13:35LA +4% win prob(13:35) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 86-D.Schultz to DAL 37 for 20 yards (20-L.Joyner).
1st · 14:34LA +4% win prob(14:34) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 89-T.Higbee pushed ob at LA 47 for 19 yards (25-X.Woods).
2nd · 4:13
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
C.J. Anderson's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 7:05 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:47Greg Zuerlein·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+30–3
1st6:10Amari Cooper·29-yd TD catch29-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+77–3
2nd13:43Greg Zuerlein·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+37–6
2nd7:05C.J. Anderson·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–13
Rams ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Cowboys: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.24Rams: +0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.23Cowboys: +0.23 expected points added per play
+0.11Rams: +0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.08Cowboys: −0.08 expected points added per play
+0.31Rams: +0.31 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 55 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Rams’s 73 at 38%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 3, Rams 5.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DAL's sack or hit rate, 3.6%, sat 12.1 points below their season number of 15.6% — they stayed blocked by 3.1 times their own 3.8-point weekly swing.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2018 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 23 pts
off script — stayed blocked · −12.1 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (−3.14× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Rams8.8%
inside their normal wobble · −8.3 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.95× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.6%, 12.1 points below their season mean of 15.6% and 3.1 times their own 3.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dallas Cowboys
53 dressed · 9 never used
73Joe LooneyC · Every snap100%58 snaps
70Zack MartinG · Every snap100%58 snaps
77Tyron SmithT · Every snap100%58 snaps
71La'el CollinsT · Every snap100%58 snaps
4Dak PrescottQB · Every snap100%58 snaps
52Connor WilliamsG · Every snap100%58 snaps
21Ezekiel ElliottRB · Full-time97%56 snaps
19Amari CooperWR · Full-time93%54 snaps
13Michael GallupWR · Full-time84%49 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Heavy rotation62%36 snaps
11Cole BeasleyWR · Rotational45%26 snaps
89Blake JarwinTE · Rotational43%25 snaps
80Rico GathersTE · Situational24%14 snaps
10Tavon AustinWR · Situational22%13 snaps
49Jamize OlawaleFB · Situational12%7 snaps
85Noah BrownWR · Situational9%5 snaps
75Cameron FlemingT · Situational7%4 snaps
45Rod SmithRB · Situational2%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
David IrvingDEDorance ArmstrongDEDaniel RossDTDarian ThompsonFSXavier Su'a-FiloGChris CovingtonLBMike WhiteQBCooper RushQBDarius JacksonRB
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
E.Elliott up+13% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(6:28) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to LA 44 for 5 yards (58-C.Littleton, 43-J.Johnson). PENALTY on LA-22-M.Peters, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LA 44.
Q1 6:28 · Cowboys · 4th & 1 at LA 49 · gained 5 · +3.59 EP · +13.4% win probability
163 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 76 yards from the LA 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
+0.15
Success rate
45%
Yards
769
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR65+0.2440%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.0776%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.2536%
Rams1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Cowboys0Rams3
Field goal14 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Cowboys 7
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Cowboys6Rams3
Cowboys7Rams3
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cowboys 29 to the Rams 29
The period ended14 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Cowboys 19
2nd quarter55 plays
Cowboys7Rams6
Field goal5 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Cowboys 5
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 17 to the Cowboys 40
Cowboys7Rams12
Cowboys7Rams13
Touchdown10 plays, from the Rams 24 to the Cowboys 1
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 30
Cowboys7Rams19
Cowboys7Rams20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Rams 36 to the Cowboys 35
Punt12 plays, from the Cowboys 19 to the Rams 36
No good7 plays, from the Rams 26 to the Cowboys 45
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 28
Cowboys7Rams23
Field goal8 plays, from the Rams 26 to the Cowboys 22
Cowboys13Rams23
Cowboys15Rams23
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Rams 1
Punt8 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Cowboys 47
The period ended8 plays, from the Cowboys 23 to the Rams 44
4th quarter43 plays
Turnover on downs1 play
Cowboys15Rams29
Cowboys15Rams30
Touchdown14 plays, from the Rams 35 to the Cowboys 1
Cowboys21Rams30
Cowboys22Rams30
Touchdown16 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Rams 1
The period ended12 plays, from the Rams 25 to midfield
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Rams -7.5
Closing total
48
Cowboys moneyline
+296
Rams moneyline
-338
Rams closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 8.
Total closed 48; the game landed 52 — over by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 56°F at kickoff; still at 2 mph out of the south; 0.05 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
John Parry
Rest
Cowboys 7 days · Rams 13 days
Coaches
Jason Garrett vs Sean McVay
LA +4% win prob
(4:13) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 81-G.Everett. PENALTY on DAL-31-B.Jones, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at LA 45 - No Play.
1st · 6:10LA +4% win prob(6:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 19-A.Cooper for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
