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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:19 AM ET · 16 to play
Indianapolis Colts 13 at Kansas City Chiefs 31. Final.
Chiefs -4 ✓U 54.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Divisional Round
Kansas City Chiefs 31, Colts 13 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 10:42, 1st and 10, on Sammy Watkins — 8.2 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:42 · 1st and 10
Sammy Watkins
Chiefs
(10:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 14-S.Watkins pushed ob at IND 20 for 34 yards (37-J.Wilcox). PENALTY on IND-37-J.Wilcox, Horse Collar Tackle, 10 yards, enforced at IND 20.
32°F
Chiefs closed -4 and covered, winning by 18.
Kansas City Chiefs 31–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:42, Chiefs +8.2% win probability on one snap.
8.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Marlon MackColtsQ1 14:14(14:14) 25-M.Mack right end to IND 27 for 10 yards (49-D.Sorensen; 24-J.Lucas).
5.3pts
Unnamed on the sheetColtsQ2 6:04(6:04) 2-D.Colquitt punt is BLOCKED by 52-N.Goode, Center-41-J.Winchester, RECOVERED by IND-14-Z.Pascal at KC -2. TOUCHDOWN.
7.7pts
What separated them
Red zone
Chiefs won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Colts at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 4 of 14 on third down, against Colts at 0 of 9 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.07 expected points per snap, against Colts at -0.24 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.30 expected points per carry, against Colts at +0.09 expected points per carry.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Colts174 of 184 plays carry both curves
(10:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 14-S.Watkins pushed ob at IND 20 for 34 yards (37-J.Wilcox). PENALTY on IND-37-J.Wilcox, Horse Collar Tackle, 10 yards, enforced at IND 20.
Swing +8.2 for ChiefsExpected points +2.44 for ChiefsThe model had Colts 5 points higher than the market did.play 11
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 10:42KC +8% win prob(10:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 14-S.Watkins pushed ob at IND 20 for 34 yards (37-J.Wilcox). PENALTY on IND-37-J.Wilcox, Horse Collar Tackle, 10 yards, enforced at IND 20.
2nd · 6:04IND +8% win prob(6:04) 2-D.Colquitt punt is BLOCKED by 52-N.Goode, Center-41-J.Winchester, RECOVERED by IND-14-Z.Pascal at KC -2. TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:14KC +5% win prob(14:14) 25-M.Mack right end to IND 27 for 10 yards (49-D.Sorensen; 24-J.Lucas).
1st · 6:39KC +5% win prob(6:39) 10-T.Hill left end for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 7:15KC +5% win prob(7:15) 26-Dam. Williams up the middle to IND 36 for 11 yards (35-P.Desir).
3rd · 1:05IND +4% win prob(1:05) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 14-S.Watkins to KC 19 for -1 yards (53-D.Leonard). FUMBLES (53-D.Leonard), RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at KC 20. 53-D.Leonard to KC 20 for no gain (14-S.Watkins).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Damien Williams's 10-yard rushing touchdown with 10:11 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:11Damien Williams·10-yd TD run10-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
Chiefs ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.24Colts: −0.24 expected points added per play
+0.07Chiefs: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.33Colts: −0.33 expected points added per play
−0.08Chiefs: −0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.09Colts: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.30Chiefs: +0.30 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 53 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 78 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Colts 4, Chiefs 5.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.24.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
KC's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, sat 52.8 points above their season number of 47.2% — they went for it by 3.2 times their own 16.4-point weekly swing.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 16.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2018 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · +2.4 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Chiefs14.6%
right on their number · −0.4 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteKC's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 52.8 points above their season mean of 47.2% and 3.2 times their own 16.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes pass+8% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 14-S.Watkins pushed ob at IND 20 for 34 yards (37-J.Wilcox). PENALTY on IND-37-J.Wilcox, Horse Collar Tackle, 10 yards, enforced at IND 20.
Q1 10:42 · Chiefs · 1st & 10 at KC 46 · gained 34 · +2.44 EP · +7.5% win probability
172 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 184 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 90 yards from the KC 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
43%
Yards
699
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.2476%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.1064%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR28+0.3050%
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Chiefs0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Colts 27
Colts0Chiefs6
Colts0Chiefs7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chiefs 10 to the Colts 10
Punt5 plays
Colts0Chiefs13
Colts0Chiefs14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Colts 36
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 23 to the Colts 31
The period ended11 plays, from the Chiefs 26 to the Colts 31
2nd quarter47 plays
Colts0Chiefs17
Field goal7 plays, from the Colts 29 to the Colts 19
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 34
Colts6Chiefs17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chiefs 18 to the Chiefs 29
Colts7Chiefs17
Colts7Chiefs23
Colts7Chiefs24
Touchdown15 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Colts 2
No good9 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Chiefs 5
3rd quarter39 plays
Turnover on downs16 plays, from the Chiefs 14 to the Colts 33
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 23 to the Colts 37
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 21 to the Chiefs 37
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 31 to the Chiefs 45
Fumble lost1 play
Fumble lost2 plays
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter54 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 49 to the Colts 34
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 17 to the Colts 28
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 38 to the Chiefs 42
Colts13Chiefs24
Touchdown11 plays, from the Colts 13 to the Chiefs 29
Colts13Chiefs30
Colts13Chiefs31
Touchdown15 plays, from the Chiefs 39 to the Colts 5
The period ended11 plays, from the Colts 32 to the Chiefs 11
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Coltscategory by categoryChiefs
Colts0
Chiefs6
