2018 Divisional Round · Sat, Jan 12, 2019 · Arrowhead Stadium

Indianapolis Colts

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

KC -4 ✓U 54.5 ✓32°FChiefs closed -4 and covered, winning by 18.

Kansas City Chiefs 31–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:42, KC +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 10:42IND — KC KC ball · 1st & 10KC 70%

(10:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 14-S.Watkins pushed ob at IND 20 for 34 yards (37-J.Wilcox). PENALTY on IND-37-J.Wilcox, Horse Collar Tackle, 10 yards, enforced at IND 20.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 10:42KC +8% win prob(10:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 14-S.Watkins pushed ob at IND 20 for 34 yards (37-J.Wilcox). PENALTY on IND-37-J.Wilcox, Horse Collar Tackle, 10 yards, enforced at IND 20.
Q2 · 6:04IND +8% win prob(6:04) 2-D.Colquitt punt is BLOCKED by 52-N.Goode, Center-41-J.Winchester, RECOVERED by IND-14-Z.Pascal at KC -2. TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 14:14KC +5% win prob(14:14) 25-M.Mack right end to IND 27 for 10 yards (49-D.Sorensen; 24-J.Lucas).
Q1 · 6:39KC +5% win prob(6:39) 10-T.Hill left end for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Chiefs
Offensive plays	53	78
Total yards	266	433 (edge)
Yards per play	5.0	5.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.24	0.07 (edge)
Success rate	42%	45% (edge)
Dropback rate	77%	60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.33	-0.08 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09	0.30 (edge)
Third downs	0/9	4/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14	26 (edge)
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1	1

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.24.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

27/41, 278 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-0.7 expected points added · -1.6% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Andrew LuckQB

19/36, 203 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-15.2 expected points added · -9.8% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Damien WilliamsRB

25 att, 129 yds, 1 TD

6.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Marlon MackRB

9 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

7/10 for 108 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 7.0 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Tyreek HillWR

8/13 for 72 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 0.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 20	5	7	1:55	Punt
2	KC	KC 10	6	75	3:00	Touchdown
3	IND	IND 26	5	0	0:33	Punt
4	KC	KC 30	9	65	3:04	Touchdown
5	IND	IND 23	5	5	2:16	Punt
6	KC	KC 26	15	48	6:59	Turnover on downs
7	IND	IND 25	5	9	2:07	Punt
8	KC	KC 18	6	11	4:10	Defensive touchdown
9	KC	KC 25	12	75	4:16	Touchdown
10	IND	IND 25	9	70	1:40	Turnover on downs
11	KC	KC 14	15	50	6:28	Turnover on downs
12	IND	IND 23	6	14	1:54	Punt
13	KC	KC 21	5	18	2:53	Punt
14	IND	IND 31	5	22	2:40	Punt
15	KC	KC 20	1	0	0:05	Fumble
16	IND	KC 20	2	-9	0:10	Fumble
17	KC	KC 32	6	36	3:39	Punt
18	IND	IND 17	6	11	1:29	Punt
19	KC	KC 38	4	-1	2:07	Punt
20	IND	IND 13	11	87	3:04	Touchdown
21	KC	KC 39	11	56	3:08	Touchdown
22	IND	IND 32	9	50	2:23	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 87 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andrew Luck	19/36	203	1	0	3	-15.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Marlon Mack	9	46	5.1	0.4
Nyheim Miller-Hines	3	24	8.0	0.7
Andrew Luck	2	17	8.5	1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
T.Y. Hilton	4	11	60	1	31%	-1.0
Dontrelle Inman	4	4	55	0	11%	4.0
Eric Ebron	5	9	51	0	25%	-1.8
Chester Rogers	5	6	30	0	17%	1.6
Zach Pascal	1	3	7	0	8%	-5.3
Ryan Hewitt	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8
Mo Alie-Cox	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.1
Jordan Wilkins	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kenny Moore	8	5	2.0	1
Shaquille Leonard	9	4	0.0	0
Clayton Geathers	7	2	0.0	0
Anthony Walker	5	1	0.0	0
J.J. Wilcox	5	1	0.0	1
Pierre Desir	4	2	0.0	1
Jabaal Sheard	2	2	1.0	0
Denico Autry	2	2	1.0	0
Al-Quadin Muhammad	2	1	0.0	0
Chris Milton	2	0	0.0	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	27/41	278	0	0	4	-0.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Damien Williams	25	129	5.2	1	6.5
Tyreek Hill	1	36	36.0	1	3.2
Darrel Williams	3	9	3.0	1	2.2
Patrick Mahomes	3	8	2.7	1	0.7
Sammy Watkins	1	-2	-2.0	0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	7	10	108	24%	7.0
Tyreek Hill	8	13	72	32%	0.2
Sammy Watkins	6	8	62	20%	-3.0
Damien Williams	5	6	25	15%	-0.5
Gehrig Dieter	1	1	11	2%	1.2
Demetrius Harris	0	1	0	2%	-1.1
Chris Conley	0	2	0	5%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Anthony Hitchens	4	3	0.0	0
Eric Murray	4	3	0.0	0
Dee Ford	4	0	1.0	0
Charvarius Ward	2	2	0.0	4
Jordan Lucas	2	2	0.0	1
Daniel Sorensen	1	2	0.0	0
Kendall Fuller	2	1	0.0	1
Justin Houston	2	0	2.0	1
Derrick Nnadi	1	1	0.0	0
Xavier Williams	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -4
Closing total: 54.5
IND moneyline: +182
KC moneyline: -203

Chiefs closed -4 and covered, winning by 18.

Total closed 54.5; the game landed 44 — under by 10.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 32°F, wind 13 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: IND 7 days · KC 13 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs Andy Reid