For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Los Angeles Chargers 28 at New England Patriots 41. Final.
Patriots -4 ✓O 47.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Divisional Round
New England Patriots 41, Chargers 28 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 5:03, 1st and 10, on Keenan Allen — 9.6 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:03 · 1st and 10
Keenan Allen
Chargers
(5:03) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 13-K.Allen for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
27°F
Patriots closed -4 and covered, winning by 13.
New England Patriots 41–28. Biggest swing: Q1 5:03, Chargers +9.6% win probability on one snap.
9.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Julian EdelmanPatriotsQ1 2:19(2:19) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 11-J.Edelman to LAC 14 for 28 yards (23-R.Jenkins). NE 11-Edelman 1,072 career postseason rec yards, passes Monk for 10th all-time.
7.0pts
Phillip DorsettPatriotsQ2 12:22(12:22) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 13-P.Dorsett for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 13th consecutive postseason game with a pass TD, ties Marino & P.Manning for 3rd-longest streak all-time.
7.3pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Patriots won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chargers at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.14 expected points per carry, against Chargers at -0.14 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Chargers at 6 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — no giveaways, against Chargers at 1 giveaway.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Chargers190 of 202 plays carry both curves
(5:03) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 13-K.Allen for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −9.6 for PatriotsExpected points −4.12 for PatriotsThe model had Chargers 5 points higher than the market did.play 26
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 5:03NE +10% win prob(5:03) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 13-K.Allen for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 12:22NE +7% win prob(12:22) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 13-P.Dorsett for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 13th consecutive postseason game with a pass TD, ties Marino & P.Manning for 3rd-longest streak all-time.
1st · 2:19NE +7% win prob(2:19) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 11-J.Edelman to LAC 14 for 28 yards (23-R.Jenkins). NE 11-Edelman 1,072 career postseason rec yards, passes Monk for 10th all-time.
1st · 7:56NE +7% win prob(7:56) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short right to 87-R.Gronkowski. PENALTY on LAC-26-C.Hayward, Defensive Pass Interference, 8 yards, enforced at LAC 9 - No Play.
1st · 6:52NE +5% win prob(6:52) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 81-M.Williams to LAC 46 for 18 yards (30-J.McCourty). LAC-81-M.Williams was injured during the play.
1st · 4:49NE +5% win prob(4:49) 26-S.Michel up the middle to NE 45 for 12 yards (51-K.Emanuel; 23-R.Jenkins).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Sony Michel's 14-yard rushing touchdown with 1:42 left in the 1st put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
4th12:27Stephen Gostkowski·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder R.Allen · snap J.Cardona+314–41
4th7:42Virgil Green·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip Rivers · two-point good+822–41
4th1:04Antonio Gates·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip Rivers · two-point no good+628–41
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categoryPatriots
Chargers0–9Patriots
337Total yards499
5.2Yards per play6.6
37%Success rate49%
38%Third-down rate50%
3Red-zone touchdowns5
6Explosive plays9
20First downs28
2Sacks taken0
1Turnovers0
The read
Patriots ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Chargers: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.24Patriots: +0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.16Chargers: +0.16 expected points added per play
+0.32Patriots: +0.32 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.14Chargers: −0.14 expected points added per play
+0.14Patriots: +0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 65 snaps at a 85% dropback rate against Patriots’s 76 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 4, Patriots 7.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's pass rate over expected, +10.5 pts, sat 10.4 points above their season number of +0.1 pts — they threw more than the situation asked by 3.1 times their own 3.4-point weekly swing.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.4 points.
LAC's early-down pass rate, 79.6%, sat 27.0 points above their season number of 52.6% — they passed early by 2.8 times their own 9.8-point weekly swing.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2018 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.4 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−1.50× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Patriots12.7%
right on their number · −2.6 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLAC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 10.5 pts, 10.4 points above their season mean of 0.1 pts and 3.1 times their own 3.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Rivers pass+11% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(5:03) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 13-K.Allen for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 5:03 · Chargers · 1st & 10 at NE 43 · gained 43 · +4.12 EP · +10.7% win probability
188 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 202 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 202 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 87 yards from the NE 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
202 of 202 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
202
EPA per play
+0.14
Success rate
42%
Yards
835
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54+0.1791%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.1278%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR22+0.5132%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.2940%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
202 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
202 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Chargers0Patriots6
Chargers0Patriots7
Touchdown17 plays, from the Patriots 17 to the Chargers 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
Chargers6Patriots7
Chargers7Patriots7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chargers 33 to the Patriots 43
Chargers7Patriots13
Chargers7Patriots14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Patriots 33 to the Chargers 14
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 26
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter57 plays
Chargers7Patriots20
Chargers7Patriots21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chargers 47 to the Chargers 10
Punt10 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 49
Chargers7Patriots27
Chargers7Patriots28
Touchdown8 plays, from the Patriots 13 to the Chargers 6
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 21 to the Chargers 47
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 21 to the Patriots 24
Chargers7Patriots34
Chargers7Patriots35
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chargers 35 to the Chargers 5
Punt6 plays
The period ended8 plays, from the Patriots 48 to the Chargers 36
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 31 to the Chargers 34
Chargers7Patriots38
Field goal14 plays, from the Patriots 33 to the Chargers 9
Chargers13Patriots38
Chargers14Patriots38
Touchdown15 plays, from the Chargers 28 to the Patriots 1
The period ended4 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 34
4th quarter63 plays
Chargers14Patriots41
Field goal7 plays, from the Patriots 36 to the Chargers 12
Punt6 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 48 to the Chargers 43
Chargers20Patriots41
Chargers22Patriots41
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Patriots 1
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 44 to the Chargers 39
Intercepted6 plays, from the Chargers 2 to the Chargers 14
Punt8 plays
Chargers28Patriots41
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Patriots 8
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Patriots -4
Closing total
47.5
Chargers moneyline
+170
Patriots moneyline
-189
Patriots closed -4 and covered, winning by 13.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 69 — over by 21.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Freezing, 27°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 5 mph out of the north-east; mainly clear.
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
Chargers 7 days · Patriots 14 days
Coaches
Anthony Lynn vs Bill Belichick
1st · 11:20NE +5% win prob(11:20) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 28-J.White to LAC 35 for 17 yards (23-R.Jenkins, 31-A.Phillips). LAC-31-A.Phillips was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
1st · 1:42NE +4% win prob(1:42) 26-S.Michel right tackle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
