2018 Divisional Round · Sun, Jan 13, 2019 · Gillette Stadium

Los Angeles Chargers

New England PatriotsWinner

NE -4 ✓O 47.5 ✓26°FPatriots closed -4 and covered, winning by 13.

New England Patriots 41–28. Biggest swing: Q1 5:03, NE +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 5:03LAC — NE LAC ball · 1st & 10NE 71%

(5:03) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 13-K.Allen for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 5:03NE +10% win prob(5:03) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 13-K.Allen for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 12:22NE +7% win prob(12:22) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 13-P.Dorsett for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 13th consecutive postseason game with a pass TD, ties Marino & P.Manning for 3rd-longest streak all-time.
Q1 · 2:19NE +7% win prob(2:19) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 11-J.Edelman to LAC 14 for 28 yards (23-R.Jenkins). NE 11-Edelman 1,072 career postseason rec yards, passes Monk for 10th all-time.
Q1 · 7:56NE +7% win prob(7:56) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short right to 87-R.Gronkowski. PENALTY on LAC-26-C.Hayward, Defensive Pass Interference, 8 yards, enforced at LAC 9 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chargers	Patriots
Offensive plays	65	76
Total yards	337	499 (edge)
Yards per play	5.2	6.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.11	0.24 (edge)
Success rate	37%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	85%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.16	0.32 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.14	0.14 (edge)
Third downs	5/13	7/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20	28 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.11.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Tom BradyQB

34/44, 343 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

14.0 expected points added · +3.9% completion over expected

Passing · LAC

Philip RiversQB

25/51, 331 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

8.8 expected points added · -6.4% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Sony MichelRB

24 att, 129 yds, 3 TD

4.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Melvin GordonRB

9 att, 15 yds, 1 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Julian EdelmanWR

9/13 for 151 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 10.2 expected points added

Receiving · NE

James WhiteRB

15/17 for 97 yds, 0 TD

39% of team targets · -0.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 17	16	75	7:11	Touchdown
2	LAC	LAC 33	8	72	2:53	Touchdown
3	NE	NE 33	9	67	3:21	Touchdown
4	LAC	LAC 25	5	1	1:11	Punt
5	NE	NE 42	9	63	3:07	Touchdown
6	LAC	LAC 25	9	29	3:05	Punt
7	NE	NE 13	7	82	3:08	Touchdown
8	LAC	LAC 21	6	26	1:48	Punt
9	NE	NE 21	4	3	0:53	Punt
10	NE	LAC 35	5	35	1:40	Touchdown
11	LAC	LAC 25	5	0	0:52	Punt
12	NE	NE 48	5	22	0:51	End of half
13	LAC	LAC 31	5	3	1:07	Punt
14	NE	NE 33	14	57	7:22	Turnover on downs
15	LAC	LAC 28	12	52	5:15	Touchdown
16	NE	NE 25	9	73	3:53	Turnover on downs
17	LAC	LAC 24	5	0	0:36	Punt
18	NE	NE 48	4	9	2:08	Punt
19	LAC	LAC 20	7	70	2:01	Touchdown
20	NE	LAC 44	5	4	2:34	Punt
21	LAC	LAC 2	6	12	0:52	Interception
22	NE	LAC 33	4	9	1:13	Punt
23	LAC	LAC 20	13	72	2:00	Touchdown
24	NE	LAC 49	3	0	0:59	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 82 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Philip Rivers	25/51	331	3	1	2	8.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Melvin Gordon	9	15	1.7	1	-1.3
Justin Jackson	1	4	4.0	0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyrell Williams	5	7	94	0	15%	5.0
Keenan Allen	2	6	75	1	13%	4.3
Mike Williams	5	11	68	0	23%	3.2
Antonio Gates	5	8	41	1	17%	2.9
Justin Jackson	3	4	22	0	9%	0.3
Austin Ekeler	3	5	19	0	11%	0.5
Melvin Gordon	1	2	11	0	4%	-0.6
Virgil Green	1	1	1	1	2%	0.7
Travis Benjamin	0	2	0	0	4%	-1.1
Hunter Henry	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast
Jahleel Addae	6	6
Derwin James	5	4
Rayshawn Jenkins	4	4
Desmond King	5	3
Kyle Emanuel	1	5
Michael Davis	3	2
Adrian Phillips	1	4
Uchenna Nwosu	2	2
Casey Hayward	4	0
Brandon Mebane	4	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	34/44	343	1	0	0	14.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Sony Michel	24	129	5.4	3	4.0
Rex Burkhead	4	12	3.0	1	0.6
Julian Edelman	1	7	7.0	0	0.3
James Develin	2	5	2.5	0	0.7
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	3	3.0	0	-1.3
Tom Brady	2	-1	-0.5	0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Julian Edelman	9	13	151	0	30%	10.2
James White	15	17	97	0	39%	-0.2
Phillip Dorsett	4	5	41	1	11%	3.5
Rob Gronkowski	1	1	25	0	2%	2.5
Chris Hogan	3	5	13	0	11%	-2.2
Sony Michel	1	1	9	0	2%	0.6
Rex Burkhead	1	1	7	0	2%	0.0
Cordarrelle Patterson	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Patrick Chung	4	3	0.0	0
Devin McCourty	4	2	0.0	2
Jason McCourty	5	0	0.0	1
Kyle Van Noy	4	0	0.0	1
J.C. Jackson	3	1	0.0	2
Elandon Roberts	2	1	0.0	0
Matt Slater	1	1	0.0	0
Ramon Humber	1	1	0.0	0
Adrian Clayborn	1	1	1.0	0
Dont'a Hightower	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -4
Closing total: 47.5
LAC moneyline: +170
NE moneyline: -189

Patriots closed -4 and covered, winning by 13.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 69 — over by 21.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 26°F, wind 3 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: LAC 7 days · NE 14 days
Coaches: Anthony Lynn vs Bill Belichick