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Philadelphia Eagles 14 at New Orleans Saints 20. Final.
Saints -8.5 no cover
The verdict · 2018 Divisional Round
New Orleans Saints 20, Eagles 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 2:01, 2nd and 10, on Marshon Lattimore — 20.6 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:01 · 2nd and 10
Marshon Lattimore
Saints
(2:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short left intended for 17-A.Jeffery INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Lattimore at NO 19. 23-M.Lattimore to NO 33 for 14 yards (19-G.Tate).
U 52 ✓
Dome
Saints closed -8.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
New Orleans Saints 20–14. Biggest swing: Q4 2:01, Saints +20.6% win probability on one snap.
20.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jordan MatthewsEaglesQ1 10:49(10:49) 9-N.Foles pass deep left to 80-J.Matthews for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN [57-A.Okafor]. Pass 30, YAC 7
15.0pts
Michael ThomasSaintsQ3 3:21(3:21) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas to PHI 12 for 20 yards (37-T.Sullivan). Pass 14, YAC 6
10.8pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Saints won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Eagles at 3 chunk plays.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Saints won this one — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Eagles at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Saints won this one — 8 of 15 on third down, against Eagles at 2 of 7 on third down.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.13 expected points per snap, against Eagles at -0.09 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Eagles154 of 168 plays carry both curves
(2:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short left intended for 17-A.Jeffery INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Lattimore at NO 19. 23-M.Lattimore to NO 33 for 14 yards (19-G.Tate).
Swing +20.6 for SaintsExpected points +4.64 for SaintsThe model had Eagles 6 points higher than the market did.play 161
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:01PHI +21% win prob(2:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short left intended for 17-A.Jeffery INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Lattimore at NO 19. 23-M.Lattimore to NO 33 for 14 yards (19-G.Tate).
1st · 10:49NO +15% win prob(10:49) 9-N.Foles pass deep left to 80-J.Matthews for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN [57-A.Okafor]. Pass 30, YAC 7
3rd · 3:21NO +11% win prob(3:21) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas to PHI 12 for 20 yards (37-T.Sullivan). Pass 14, YAC 6
1st · 6:05NO +10% win prob(6:05) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep right to 17-A.Jeffery pushed ob at NO 4 for 30 yards (23-M.Lattimore). Pass 24, YAC 6
1st · 14:56NO +8% win prob(14:56) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep middle intended for 19-T.Ginn INTERCEPTED by 34-C.LeBlanc at PHI 24. 34-C.LeBlanc to PHI 24 for no gain (13-M.Thomas).
2nd · 2:30PHI +8% win prob(2:30) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees sacked at NO 32 for -8 yards (sack split by 93-T.Jernigan and 56-C.Long).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Michael Thomas's 2-yard touchdown catch with 1:44 left in the 3rd put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st10:49Jordan Matthews·37-yd TD catch37-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Folesfrom Nick Foles+77–0
4th10:32Wil Lutz·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+314–20
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categorySaints
Eagles1–7Saints
251Total yards421
5.5Yards per play6.1
39%Success rate43%
29%Third-down rate53%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
3Explosive plays12
13First downs23
0Sacks taken2
2Turnovers2
The read
Saints ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Eagles, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Eagles: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.13Saints: +0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.07Eagles: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.26Saints: +0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.15Eagles: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.04Saints: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 46 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Saints’s 69 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 2, Saints 2.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2018 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.9 vs their 18.4%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.76× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Saints12.9%
right on their number · −2.4 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNO's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 31.0 points above their season mean of 35.7% and 1.2 times their own 25.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
N.Foles pass−26% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short left intended for 17-A.Jeffery INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Lattimore at NO 19. 23-M.Lattimore to NO 33 for 14 yards (19-G.Tate).
Q4 2:01 · Eagles · 2nd & 10 at NO 27 · gained nothing · -4.64 EP · −26.1% win probability
152 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 92 yards from the NO 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
36%
Yards
670
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.0068%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.0470%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.3762%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.1857%
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR5+1.24100%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.2340%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 0 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Intercepted2 plays
Eagles6Saints0
Eagles7Saints0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Eagles 24 to the Saints 37
Punt5 plays
Eagles13Saints0
Eagles14Saints0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Saints 1
Punt10 plays, from the Saints 8 to the Saints 45
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter50 plays
Intercepted3 plays, from the Eagles 32 to the Eagles 48
Eagles14Saints6
Eagles14Saints7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Saints 21 to the Eagles 2
Punt8 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 44
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Saints 40
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 23 to the Eagles 35
Eagles14Saints10
Field goal10 plays, from the Saints 6 to the Eagles 27
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo quarterbacks, one back and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
Eagles14Saints16
Eagles14Saints17
Touchdown23 plays, from the Saints 8 to the Eagles 2
The period ended5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 28
4th quarter45 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 40 to the Eagles 42
Eagles14Saints20
Field goal9 plays, from the Saints 17 to the Eagles 21
Punt8 plays, from the Eagles 21 to the Eagles 32
No good12 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Eagles 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Eagles 42 to the Saints 27
The period ended7 plays, from the Saints 33 to the Saints 45
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Saints -8.5
Closing total
52
Eagles moneyline
+324
Saints moneyline
-373
Saints closed -8.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 52; the game landed 34 — under by 18.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Eagles 7 days · Saints 14 days
Coaches
Doug Pederson vs Sean Payton
1st · 14:46NO +7% win prob(14:46) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short left to 19-G.Tate ran ob at PHI 30 for 6 yards (26-P.Williams). Pass 1, YAC 5
1st · 0:48PHI +7% win prob(:48) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees sacked at NO 37 for -8 yards (55-B.Graham). FUMBLES (55-B.Graham), RECOVERED by PHI-55-B.Graham at NO 35. 55-B.Graham to NO 34 for 1 yard (72-T.Armstead). FUMBLES (72-T.Armstead), RECOVERED by NO-71-R.Ramczyk at NO 31. The Replay Official reviewed the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees sacked at NO 37 for -8 yards (55-B.Graham). FUMBLES (55-B.Graham), touched at NO 35, recovered by NO-71-R.Ramczyk at NO 31.
