2018 Divisional Round · Sun, Jan 13, 2019 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Philadelphia Eagles

New Orleans SaintsWinner

NO -8.5 no coverU 52 ✓DomeSaints closed -8.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

New Orleans Saints 20–14. Biggest swing: Q4 2:01, PHI +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:01PHI — NO PHI ball · 2nd & 10NO 78%

(2:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short left intended for 17-A.Jeffery INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Lattimore at NO 19. 23-M.Lattimore to NO 33 for 14 yards (19-G.Tate).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:01PHI +21% win prob(2:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short left intended for 17-A.Jeffery INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Lattimore at NO 19. 23-M.Lattimore to NO 33 for 14 yards (19-G.Tate).
Q1 · 10:49NO +15% win prob(10:49) 9-N.Foles pass deep left to 80-J.Matthews for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN [57-A.Okafor]. Pass 30, YAC 7
Q3 · 3:21NO +11% win prob(3:21) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas to PHI 12 for 20 yards (37-T.Sullivan). Pass 14, YAC 6
Q1 · 6:05NO +10% win prob(6:05) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep right to 17-A.Jeffery pushed ob at NO 4 for 30 yards (23-M.Lattimore). Pass 24, YAC 6

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Eagles	Saints
Offensive plays	46	69
Total yards	251	421 (edge)
Yards per play	5.5	6.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.09	0.13 (edge)
Success rate	39%	43% (edge)
Dropback rate	67%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07	0.26 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15	-0.04 (edge)
Third downs	2/7	8/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	12 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	2
Turnovers	2	2

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.09.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Drew BreesQB

28/38, 301 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

10.1 expected points added · +8.0% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Nick FolesQB

18/31, 201 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-2.1 expected points added · -7.8% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

16 att, 71 yds, 0 TD

0.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Mark IngramRB

9 att, 53 yds, 0 TD

-2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Michael ThomasWR

12/16 for 171 yds, 1 TD

43% of team targets · 11.1 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

Alshon JefferyWR

5/8 for 63 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · -1.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 35	2	0	0:14	Interception
2	PHI	PHI 24	8	76	4:05	Touchdown
3	NO	NO 25	5	0	0:50	Punt
4	PHI	PHI 25	11	75	5:14	Touchdown
5	NO	NO 8	9	21	4:08	Fumble
6	PHI	PHI 30	4	18	1:54	Interception
7	NO	NO 21	13	84	6:12	Touchdown
8	PHI	PHI 25	6	19	2:50	Punt
9	NO	NO 20	5	12	2:42	Punt
10	PHI	PHI 23	5	12	0:33	Punt
11	NO	NO 6	7	77	1:12	Turnover on downs
12	PHI	PHI 25	2	0	0:06	End of half
13	PHI	PHI 25	5	6	1:51	Punt
14	NO	NO 8	19	112	11:29	Touchdown
15	PHI	PHI 25	7	22	2:41	Punt
16	NO	NO 17	8	62	3:31	Turnover on downs
17	PHI	PHI 21	7	7	1:50	Punt
18	NO	NO 25	10	41	5:40	Turnover on downs
19	PHI	PHI 42	4	16	1:06	Interception
20	NO	NO 33	4	12	1:52	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 112 scrimmage yards over 19 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nick Foles	18/31	201	1	2	0	-2.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Wendell Smallwood	10	33	3.3	0	-2.3
Nelson Agholor	1	12	12.0	0	0.7
Darren Sproles	3	4	1.3	0	-1.4
Nick Foles	2	0	0.0	1	0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Alshon Jeffery	5	8	63	0	26%	-1.5
Zach Ertz	5	8	50	0	26%	-0.4
Jordan Matthews	1	2	37	1	6%	2.2
Darren Sproles	3	4	21	0	13%	-1.3
Golden Tate	2	5	18	0	16%	-1.0
Wendell Smallwood	1	1	6	0	3%	0.7
Nelson Agholor	1	3	6	0	10%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Nigel Bradham	5	4	0.0	0	0
Jordan Hicks	6	3	0.0	0	0
Malcolm Jenkins	6	2	0.0	0	0
Avonte Maddox	6	2	0.0	0	1
Tre Sullivan	6	0	0.0	0	0
Michael Bennett	3	1	0.0	0	0
Cre'von LeBlanc	3	1	0.0	1	2
Chris Long	2	1	0.5	0	0
Brandon Graham	2	1	1.0	0	0
Fletcher Cox	2	1	0.0	0	0

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Brees	28/38	301	2	1	2	10.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alvin Kamara	16	71	4.4	0.2
Mark Ingram	9	53	5.9	-2.3
Taysom Hill	2	8	4.0	2.5
Tre'Quan Smith	1	5	5.0	0.0
Drew Brees	3	0	0.0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Thomas	12	16	171	1	43%	11.1
Ted Ginn	3	7	44	0	19%	-2.7
Alvin Kamara	4	4	35	0	11%	-0.0
Tre'Quan Smith	1	1	15	0	3%	2.1
Benjamin Watson	1	1	12	0	3%	0.5
Mark Ingram	2	2	9	0	5%	0.2
Keith Kirkwood	2	2	8	1	5%	4.0
Josh Hill	3	3	7	0	8%	-0.4
Taysom Hill	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Demario Davis	5	3	0	0
Vonn Bell	2	2	0	1
Cameron Jordan	3	0	0	1
P.J. Williams	2	1	0	1
Eli Apple	2	1	0	1
Marshon Lattimore	3	0	2	2
Taylor Stallworth	2	1	0	0
Tyeler Davison	1	1	0	0
David Onyemata	1	1	0	0
Michael Thomas	1	0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -8.5
Closing total: 52
PHI moneyline: +324
NO moneyline: -373

Saints closed -8.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 52; the game landed 34 — under by 18.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: PHI 7 days · NO 14 days
Coaches: Doug Pederson vs Sean Payton