2018 Conference Championship · Sun, Jan 20, 2019 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Los Angeles RamsWinner

New Orleans Saints

NO -3 upsetU 55 ✓DomeSaints closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Los Angeles Rams 26–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 11:47, NO +32% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 11:47LA — NO LA ball · 4th & 7LA 68%

(11:47) 4-G.Zuerlein 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 11:47NO +32% win prob(11:47) 4-G.Zuerlein 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
OT · 14:03LA +29% win prob(14:03) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left intended for 10-T.Smith INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Johnson [56-D.Fowler] at LA 46. 43-J.Johnson to LA 46 for no gain (13-M.Thomas).
Q4 · 2:07NO +18% win prob(2:07) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 19-T.Ginn to LA 13 for 43 yards (20-L.Joyner). Pass 42, YAC 1
Q4 · 8:08NO +14% win prob(8:08) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 83-J.Reynolds to NO 7 for 33 yards (56-D.Davis) [76-T.Stallworth]. Pass 24, YAC 9

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Rams	Saints
Offensive plays	68	62
Total yards	378 (edge)	292
Yards per play	5.6 (edge)	4.7
Expected points added / play	0.00 (edge)	-0.11
Success rate	43% (edge)	40%
Dropback rate	65%	69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.11 (edge)	0.01
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.18 (edge)	-0.38
Third downs	6/16	6/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	1	1

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.11.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Jared GoffQB

25/40, 297 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

1.1 expected points added · -4.5% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Drew BreesQB

26/40, 249 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

1.4 expected points added · -2.2% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

C.J. AndersonRB

16 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

-2.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Mark IngramRB

9 att, 31 yds, 0 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Brandin CooksWR

7/8 for 107 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 6.7 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

11/13 for 96 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 3.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 25	12	56	4:56	Turnover on downs
2	LA	LA 10	4	3	1:29	Interception
3	NO	LA 16	4	6	1:29	Turnover on downs
4	LA	LA 25	5	2	1:40	Punt
5	NO	NO 32	9	63	3:51	Touchdown
6	LA	LA 25	15	62	6:50	Turnover on downs
7	NO	NO 25	5	5	1:37	Punt
8	LA	LA 22	7	18	2:48	Punt
9	NO	NO 17	7	9	3:28	Punt
10	LA	LA 19	8	81	1:29	Touchdown
11	NO	NO 20	2	0	0:23	End of half
12	LA	LA 25	5	-4	0:55	Punt
13	NO	NO 29	13	71	5:31	Touchdown
14	LA	LA 25	12	72	5:28	Touchdown
15	NO	NO 25	8	28	3:17	Punt
16	LA	LA 13	4	-6	2:27	Punt
17	NO	LA 46	4	3	1:27	Punt
18	LA	LA 9	9	90	5:52	Turnover on downs
19	NO	NO 30	10	57	3:22	Turnover on downs
20	LA	LA 25	10	45	1:26	Turnover on downs
21	NO	NO 29	2	0	0:15	Turnover on downs
22	NO	NO 26	4	-6	1:05	Interception
23	LA	LA 46	5	15	2:12	Turnover on downs

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 90 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	25/40	297	1	1	1	1.1
Johnny Hekker	1/1	12	0	0	0	3.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
C.J. Anderson	16	44	2.8	0	-2.9
Josh Reynolds	1	16	16.0	0	1.5
Jared Goff	3	10	3.3	0	-0.4
Todd Gurley	4	10	2.5	1	-0.2
Robert Woods	2	-3	-1.5	0	-2.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandin Cooks	7	8	107	0	21%	6.7
Josh Reynolds	4	7	74	0	18%	2.4
Gerald Everett	2	4	50	0	10%	3.7
Robert Woods	6	11	33	0	28%	-4.8
Tyler Higbee	4	4	25	1	10%	2.1
Sam Shields	1	1	12	0	3%	3.3
C.J. Anderson	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.3
Todd Gurley	1	3	3	0	8%	-5.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Cory Littleton	11	1	0.0	0	0
Mark Barron	6	2	0.0	0	0
Dante Fowler	1	3	0.5	0	0
Ndamukong Suh	2	2	1.5	0	0
Michael Brockers	2	2	0.0	0	1
Marcus Peters	2	1	0.0	0	0
Bryce Hager	1	2	0.0	0	0
John Johnson	2	1	0.0	1	1
Lamarcus Joyner	2	1	0.0	0	0
Samson Ebukam	2	1	0.0	0	0

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Brees	26/40	249	2	1	2	1.4
Taysom Hill	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Mark Ingram	9	31	3.4	-1.3
Alvin Kamara	8	15	1.9	-5.5
Zach Line	1	4	4.0	0.2
Taysom Hill	1	0	0.0	-0.6
Drew Brees	2	-2	-1.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Alvin Kamara	11	13	96	0	33%	3.6
Ted Ginn	3	6	58	0	15%	2.0
Michael Thomas	4	7	36	0	18%	1.0
Josh Hill	1	1	24	0	3%	1.3
Garrett Griffin	2	2	12	1	5%	1.2
Tre'Quan Smith	1	3	10	0	8%	-3.9
Mark Ingram	2	2	6	0	5%	-0.9
Austin Carr	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.1
Taysom Hill	1	1	2	1	3%	1.6
Tommylee Lewis	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6
Dan Arnold	0	2	0	0	5%	-2.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Demario Davis	5	5	0.0	1	1
P.J. Williams	7	1	0.0	0	1
A.J. Klein	4	2	0.0	0	0
Marshon Lattimore	4	1	0.0	0	0
Eli Apple	4	0	0.0	0	0
Vonn Bell	4	0	0.0	0	0
Alex Okafor	3	1	0.0	0	0
Tyeler Davison	1	2	0.0	0	0
Cameron Jordan	1	2	1.0	0	0
Alex Anzalone	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -3
Closing total: 55
LA moneyline: +142
NO moneyline: -157

Saints closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 55; the game landed 49 — under by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: LA 8 days · NO 7 days
Coaches: Sean McVay vs Sean Payton