For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Los Angeles Rams 26 at New Orleans Saints 23. Final.
Saints -3 upset
The verdict · 2018 Conference Championship
Los Angeles Rams 26, Saints 23 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 11:47, 4th and 7, on Greg Zuerlein — 32.3 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 11:47 · 4th and 7
Greg Zuerlein
Rams
(11:47) 4-G.Zuerlein 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
U 55 ✓
Dome
Saints closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Los Angeles Rams 26–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 11:47, Rams +32.3% win probability on one snap.
32.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ted GinnSaintsQ4 2:07(2:07) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 19-T.Ginn to LA 13 for 43 yards (20-L.Joyner). Pass 42, YAC 1
18.1pts
John JohnsonRamsOT 14:03(14:03) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left intended for 10-T.Smith INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Johnson [56-D.Fowler] at LA 46. 43-J.Johnson to LA 46 for no gain (13-M.Thomas).
28.7pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Rams won this one — -0.18 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.38 expected points per carry.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Rams won this one — +0.00 expected points per snap, against Saints at -0.11 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Rams won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Saints at 4 chunk plays.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 14 on third down, against Rams at 6 of 16 on third down.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Rams173 of 188 plays carry both curves
(11:47) 4-G.Zuerlein 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
Swing −32.3 for SaintsExpected points −2.39 for SaintsModel and market agree here.play 187
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 11:47NO +32% win prob(11:47) 4-G.Zuerlein 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
Overtime · 14:03LA +29% win prob(14:03) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left intended for 10-T.Smith INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Johnson [56-D.Fowler] at LA 46. 43-J.Johnson to LA 46 for no gain (13-M.Thomas).
4th · 2:07NO +18% win prob(2:07) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 19-T.Ginn to LA 13 for 43 yards (20-L.Joyner). Pass 42, YAC 1
4th · 8:08NO +14% win prob(8:08) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 83-J.Reynolds to NO 7 for 33 yards (56-D.Davis) [76-T.Stallworth]. Pass 24, YAC 9
Overtime · 14:53NO +13% win prob(14:53) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete deep middle to 85-D.Arnold. PENALTY on LA-26-M.Barron, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at NO 26 - No Play.
Overtime · 14:48LA +12% win prob(14:48) (Shotgun) 22-M.Ingram left guard to NO 34 for -6 yards (99-A.Donald).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Greg Zuerlein's 57-yard field goal with 11:47 left in overtime put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st10:07Wil Lutz·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+30–3
1st7:10Wil Lutz·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+30–6
3rd3:09Tyler Higbee·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+717–20
4th5:06Greg Zuerlein·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+320–20
4th1:45Wil Lutz·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+320–23
4th0:19Greg Zuerlein·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+323–23
Overtime11:47Greg Zuerlein·57-yd field goal57-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaideLead never changed again+326–23
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categorySaints
Rams6–1Saints
378Total yards292
5.6Yards per play4.7
43%Success rate40%
38%Third-down rate43%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays4
19First downs17
1Sacks taken2
1Turnovers1
The read
Rams ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.00Rams: +0.00 expected points added per play
−0.11Saints: −0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.11Rams: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.01Saints: +0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.18Rams: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.38Saints: −0.38 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 68 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Saints’s 62 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Rams 4, Saints 5.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2018 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · −3.2 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Saints13.6%
right on their number · −1.7 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNO's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 9.2 pts, 11.0 points above their season mean of -1.8 pts and 1.5 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
Greg Zuerlein+32% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(11:47) 4-G.Zuerlein 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
OT 11:47 · Rams · 4th & 7 at NO 39 · gained nothing · +2.39 EP · +32.3% win probability
171 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 188 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 188 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 90 yards from the LA 9 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
188 of 188 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
188
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
40%
Yards
668
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.1167%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.2184%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.1744%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13+0.2562%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.1060%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Rams0 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Rams0Saints3
Field goal13 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Rams 19
Intercepted4 plays, from the Rams 10 to the Rams 17
Rams0Saints6
Field goal4 plays, from the Rams 16 to the Rams 10
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 27
Rams0Saints12
Rams0Saints13
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 32 to the Rams 5
The period ended6 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 30
2nd quarter44 plays
Rams3Saints13
Field goal12 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Saints 18
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 30
Punt8 plays, from the Rams 22 to the Rams 40
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 17 to the Saints 30
Rams9Saints13
Rams10Saints13
Touchdown9 plays, from the Rams 19 to the Saints 6
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays
Rams10Saints19
Rams10Saints20
Touchdown13 plays, from the Saints 29 to the Rams 2
Rams16Saints20
Rams17Saints20
Touchdown13 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Saints 1
The period ended7 plays, from the Saints 25 to midfield
4th quarter50 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 13 to the Rams 16
Punt5 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.4 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Rams20Saints20
Field goal11 plays, from the Rams 9 to the Saints 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Rams20Saints23
Field goal12 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Rams 13
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Rams23Saints23
Field goal12 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Saints 30
The period ended3 plays
Overtime13 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Saints 26 to the Saints 40
Rams26Saints23
Field goal7 plays, from the Rams 46 to the Saints 39
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
