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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:02 AM ET · 16 to play
New England Patriots 37 at Kansas City Chiefs 31. Final.
Chiefs -3 upset
The verdict · 2018 Conference Championship
New England Patriots 37, Chiefs 31 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 8:06, 2nd and 8, on Daniel Sorensen — 30.1 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 8:06 · 2nd and 8
Daniel Sorensen
Chiefs
(8:06) 12-T.Brady pass deep left intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 49-D.Sorensen at NE 47. 49-D.Sorensen to NE 23 for 24 yards (26-S.Michel).
O 56.5 ✓
17°F
Chiefs closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New England Patriots 37–31. Biggest swing: Q4 8:06, Chiefs +30.1% win probability on one snap.
30.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Sammy WatkinsChiefsQ4 2:54(2:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 14-S.Watkins to NE 2 for 38 yards (32-D.McCourty).
27.0pts
Julian EdelmanPatriotsOT 13:40(13:40) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 11-J.Edelman to KC 45 for 20 yards (49-D.Sorensen).
27.4pts
What separated them
Third down
Patriots won this one — 13 of 19 on third down, against Chiefs at 4 of 9 on third down.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Patriots won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chiefs at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Chiefs at 8 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.07 expected points per carry, against Chiefs at -0.18 expected points per carry.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chiefs.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Patriots182 of 192 plays carry both curves
(8:06) 12-T.Brady pass deep left intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 49-D.Sorensen at NE 47. 49-D.Sorensen to NE 23 for 24 yards (26-S.Michel).
Swing +30.1 for ChiefsExpected points +5.27 for ChiefsThe model had Patriots 2 points higher than the market did.play 132
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 8:06NE +30% win prob(8:06) 12-T.Brady pass deep left intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 49-D.Sorensen at NE 47. 49-D.Sorensen to NE 23 for 24 yards (26-S.Michel).
Overtime · 13:40KC +27% win prob(13:40) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 11-J.Edelman to KC 45 for 20 yards (49-D.Sorensen).
4th · 2:54KC +27% win prob(2:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 14-S.Watkins to NE 2 for 38 yards (32-D.McCourty).
4th · 3:35KC +25% win prob(3:35) 26-S.Michel up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:54KC +24% win prob(:54) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 87-R.Gronkowski to KC 4 for 25 yards (29-E.Berry).
Overtime · 12:51KC +23% win prob(12:51) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 11-J.Edelman to KC 30 for 15 yards (35-C.Ward).
4th · 0:23
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Rex Burkhead's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 10:10 left in overtime put New England Patriots ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:11Harrison Butker·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Winchester+331–31
Overtime10:10Rex Burkhead·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+637–31
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Patriotscategory by categoryChiefs
Patriots7–2Chiefs
525Total yards290
5.6Yards per play6.2
48%Success rate38%
68%Third-down rate44%
4Red-zone touchdowns3
11Explosive plays8
35First downs14
0Sacks taken4
2Turnovers1
The read
Patriots ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.17Patriots: +0.17 expected points added per play
+0.13Chiefs: +0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.27Patriots: +0.27 expected points added per play
+0.23Chiefs: +0.23 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Patriots: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.18Chiefs: −0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 93 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 47 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 6, Chiefs 4.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs 0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
KC's early-down pass rate, 76.3%, sat 15.0 points above their season number of 61.3% — they passed early by 2.0 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
38 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2018 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
leaned — got home · +9.7 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+1.11× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Chiefs2.2%
leaned — stayed blocked · −12.8 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.69× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteKC's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 76.3%, 15.0 points above their season mean of 61.3% and 2.0 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
T.Brady pass−31% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(8:06) 12-T.Brady pass deep left intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 49-D.Sorensen at NE 47. 49-D.Sorensen to NE 23 for 24 yards (26-S.Michel).
Q4 8:06 · Patriots · 2nd & 8 at NE 30 · gained nothing · -5.27 EP · −31.0% win probability
180 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 192 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 192 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 90 yards from the NE 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
192 of 192 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
192
EPA per play
+0.14
Success rate
45%
Yards
814
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.3661%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23+0.0965%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.1082%
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR20-0.1540%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR17+0.4635%
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR4——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Patriots0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Chiefs0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
192 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
192 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Patriots6Chiefs0
Patriots7Chiefs0
Touchdown17 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Chiefs 1
Punt8 plays, from the Chiefs 16 to the Chiefs 24
The period ended9 plays, from the Chiefs 44 to the Chiefs 10
2nd quarter40 plays
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldSix linemen, two backs and two tight endsDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxTen defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Chiefs 5 to the Chiefs 1
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Chiefs 29
Punt10 plays, from the Patriots 26 to the Chiefs 42
Punt8 plays, from the Chiefs 15 to the Patriots 22
Patriots13Chiefs0
Patriots14Chiefs0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Patriots 10 to the Chiefs 29
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Patriots14Chiefs6
Patriots14Chiefs7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chiefs 26 to the Patriots 12
Punt8 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 39
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 4 to the Chiefs 16
Patriots17Chiefs7
Field goal7 plays, from the Chiefs 37 to the Chiefs 23
The period ended10 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Patriots 14
4th quarter64 plays
Patriots17Chiefs13
Patriots17Chiefs14
Touchdown3 plays, from the Patriots 14 to the Patriots 1
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Patriots 24 to the Chiefs 25
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 27
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Patriots 28 to the Patriots 30
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Patriots17Chiefs20
Patriots17Chiefs21
Touchdown3 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
Patriots23Chiefs21
Patriots24Chiefs21
Touchdown13 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Chiefs 10
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Patriots24Chiefs27
Patriots24Chiefs28
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chiefs 32 to the Patriots 2
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
Patriots30Chiefs28
Patriots31Chiefs28
Touchdown10 plays, from the Patriots 35 to the Chiefs 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Patriots31Chiefs31
Field goal7 plays, from the Chiefs 31 to the Patriots 21
The period ended3 plays
Overtime15 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, one linebacker and seven backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, two linebackers and seven backsRoute runCrosserCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, two linebackers and seven backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Patriots37Chiefs31
Touchdown14 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Chiefs 2
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -3
Closing total
56.5
Patriots moneyline
+156
Chiefs moneyline
-173
Chiefs closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 56.5; the game landed 68 — over by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Bitter, 17°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 10 mph out of the east; overcast.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Patriots 7 days · Chiefs 8 days
Coaches
Bill Belichick vs Andy Reid
KC +20% win prob
(:23) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 11-D.Robinson to NE 21 for 27 yards (27-J.Jackson) [54-D.Hightower]. Penalty on NE-98-T.Flowers, Defensive Offside, declined.
4th · 9:38NE +15% win prob(9:38) 34-R.Burkhead up the middle to KC 25 for no gain (49-D.Sorensen).
