2018 Conference Championship · Sun, Jan 20, 2019 · Arrowhead Stadium

New England PatriotsWinner

Kansas City Chiefs

KC -3 upsetO 56.5 ✓19°FChiefs closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New England Patriots 37–31. Biggest swing: Q4 8:06, NE +30% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 8:06NE — KC NE ball · 2nd & 8NE 70%

(8:06) 12-T.Brady pass deep left intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 49-D.Sorensen at NE 47. 49-D.Sorensen to NE 23 for 24 yards (26-S.Michel).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 8:06NE +30% win prob(8:06) 12-T.Brady pass deep left intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 49-D.Sorensen at NE 47. 49-D.Sorensen to NE 23 for 24 yards (26-S.Michel).
OT · 13:40KC +27% win prob(13:40) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 11-J.Edelman to KC 45 for 20 yards (49-D.Sorensen).
Q4 · 2:54KC +27% win prob(2:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 14-S.Watkins to NE 2 for 38 yards (32-D.McCourty).
Q4 · 3:35KC +25% win prob(3:35) 26-S.Michel up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Chiefs
Offensive plays	93	47
Total yards	525 (edge)	290
Yards per play	5.6	6.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.17 (edge)	0.13
Success rate	48% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	49%	77%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.27 (edge)	0.23
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07 (edge)	-0.18
Third downs	13/19 (edge)	4/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	11 (edge)	8
First downs gained on snaps	35 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	4
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs 0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Tom BradyQB

30/46, 348 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

12.5 expected points added · -0.8% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

16/31, 295 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

7.3 expected points added · -3.3% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Sony MichelRB

29 att, 113 yds, 2 TD

2.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Rex BurkheadRB

12 att, 41 yds, 2 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Sammy WatkinsWR

4/8 for 114 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 8.3 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Julian EdelmanWR

7/10 for 96 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 4.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 20	17	80	8:05	Touchdown
2	KC	KC 16	7	-11	2:22	Punt
3	NE	KC 44	11	43	5:56	Interception
4	KC	KC 20	4	9	1:40	Punt
5	NE	NE 26	9	32	4:25	Punt
6	KC	KC 15	8	49	4:24	Punt
7	NE	NE 10	9	90	2:41	Touchdown
8	KC	KC 42	2	-15	0:27	End of half
9	KC	KC 26	6	74	2:04	Touchdown
10	NE	NE 25	8	14	2:37	Punt
11	KC	KC 4	6	9	2:41	Punt
12	NE	KC 37	6	18	3:36	Turnover on downs
13	KC	KC 25	11	62	4:11	Touchdown
14	NE	NE 24	10	51	5:18	Turnover on downs
15	KC	KC 25	4	2	0:54	Punt
16	NE	NE 28	2	2	0:44	Interception
17	KC	NE 23	3	23	0:10	Touchdown
18	NE	NE 25	12	60	4:13	Touchdown
19	KC	KC 32	7	40	1:29	Touchdown
20	NE	NE 35	8	60	1:24	Touchdown
21	KC	KC 31	5	48	0:31	Turnover on downs
22	NE	NE 19	2	0	0:08	Turnover on downs
23	NE	NE 25	14	75	4:52	Touchdown

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 90 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	30/46	348	1	2	0	12.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Sony Michel	29	113	3.9	2	2.4
Rex Burkhead	12	41	3.4	2	-1.4
James White	6	23	3.8	0	2.3
Tom Brady	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Julian Edelman	7	10	96	0	22%	4.2
Rob Gronkowski	6	11	79	0	24%	-2.3
James White	4	6	49	0	13%	3.0
Chris Hogan	5	7	45	0	15%	3.0
Phillip Dorsett	1	3	29	1	7%	3.0
Rex Burkhead	4	4	23	0	9%	0.8
Cordarrelle Patterson	2	4	18	0	9%	-0.4
James Develin	1	1	9	0	2%	1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kyle Van Noy	8	2	2.0	0
Devin McCourty	3	0	0.0	0
Lawrence Guy	1	2	0.5	0
Dont'a Hightower	1	1	0.0	0
John Simon	0	2	0.5	0
Trey Flowers	2	0	1.0	0
Malcom Brown	1	1	0.0	0
Elandon Roberts	2	0	0.0	0
Jonathan Jones	2	0	0.0	1
Keion Crossen	2	0	0.0	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	16/31	295	3	0	4	7.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Damien Williams	10	30	3.0	1	-2.4
Patrick Mahomes	2	11	5.5	0	1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Sammy Watkins	4	8	114	0	28%	8.3
Damien Williams	5	8	66	2	28%	3.8
Tyreek Hill	1	3	42	0	10%	1.1
Demarcus Robinson	1	1	27	0	3%	1.7
Travis Kelce	3	6	23	1	21%	0.7
Spencer Ware	1	1	21	0	3%	0.7
Demetrius Harris	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.4
Chris Conley	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Anthony Hitchens	7	7	0	0
Daniel Sorensen	11	3	1	1
Reggie Ragland	7	5	1	1
Kendall Fuller	7	3	0	0
Charvarius Ward	4	3	0	0
Xavier Williams	2	4	0	0
Eric Berry	5	1	0	0
Allen Bailey	1	4	0	0
Steven Nelson	3	0	0	1
Eric Murray	3	0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -3
Closing total: 56.5
NE moneyline: +156
KC moneyline: -173

Chiefs closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 56.5; the game landed 68 — over by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 19°F, wind 14 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: NE 7 days · KC 8 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Andy Reid