2018 Super Bowl · Sun, Feb 3, 2019 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

New England PatriotsWinner

Los Angeles Rams

NE -2 ✓U 55.5 ✓DomePatriots closed -2 and covered, winning by 10.

New England Patriots 13–3. Biggest swing: Q4 4:24, NE +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 4:24NE — LA LA ball · 2nd & 10NE 79%

(4:24) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right intended for 12-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 24-S.Gilmore at NE 4. 24-S.Gilmore to NE 4 for no gain (12-B.Cooks).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 4:24NE +13% win prob(4:24) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right intended for 12-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 24-S.Gilmore at NE 4. 24-S.Gilmore to NE 4 for no gain (12-B.Cooks).
Q1 · 12:14NE +13% win prob(12:14) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 15-C.Hogan INTERCEPTED by 58-C.Littleton (23-N.Robey) at LA 27. 58-C.Littleton to LA 27 for no gain (15-C.Hogan).
Q4 · 7:43LA +11% win prob(7:43) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 87-R.Gronkowski to LA 2 for 29 yards (58-C.Littleton).
Q1 · 5:39NE +11% win prob(5:39) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Rams
Offensive plays	66	59
Total yards	409 (edge)	260
Yards per play	6.2 (edge)	4.4
Expected points added / play	-0.03 (edge)	-0.25
Success rate	45% (edge)	36%
Dropback rate	55%	69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07 (edge)	-0.28
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01 (edge)	-0.18
Third downs	3/12 (edge)	3/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1	1

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.25.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Tom BradyQB

21/35, 262 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-2.6 expected points added · -9.7% completion over expected

Passing · LA

Jared GoffQB

19/38, 229 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-11.3 expected points added · -10.2% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Sony MichelRB

18 att, 94 yds, 1 TD

2.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Rex BurkheadRB

7 att, 43 yds, 0 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Julian EdelmanWR

10/12 for 141 yds, 0 TD

34% of team targets · 8.9 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Brandin CooksWR

8/13 for 120 yds, 0 TD

36% of team targets · -0.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 39	6	27	2:54	Interception
2	LA	LA 27	4	2	0:51	Punt
3	NE	NE 12	11	45	5:40	Turnover on downs
4	LA	LA 36	6	22	2:10	Punt
5	NE	NE 19	8	41	3:13	Punt
6	LA	LA 6	4	8	1:14	Punt
7	NE	NE 37	7	39	3:29	Turnover on downs
8	LA	LA 28	7	23	2:39	Punt
9	NE	NE 17	4	8	1:36	Punt
10	LA	LA 45	4	-6	2:17	Punt
11	NE	NE 27	8	36	2:44	Turnover on downs
12	LA	LA 32	4	8	0:57	Punt
13	NE	NE 2	1	0	0:16	End of half
14	LA	LA 25	7	21	2:02	Punt
15	NE	NE 8	7	41	2:52	Punt
16	LA	LA 2	4	4	1:30	Punt
17	NE	NE 29	4	10	2:03	Punt
18	LA	LA 23	10	42	4:22	Turnover on downs
19	NE	NE 25	7	26	2:24	Punt
20	LA	LA 7	10	33	4:58	Punt
21	NE	NE 31	6	69	2:49	Touchdown
22	LA	LA 25	8	48	2:43	Interception
23	NE	NE 4	9	67	3:05	Turnover on downs
24	LA	LA 25	7	55	1:07	Turnover on downs
25	NE	NE 38	1	0	0:05	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 69 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	21/35	262	0	1	1	-2.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Sony Michel	18	94	5.2	1	2.1
Rex Burkhead	7	43	6.1	0	-0.7
Julian Edelman	1	8	8.0	0	0.3
Cordarrelle Patterson	2	7	3.5	0	-0.1
James White	2	4	2.0	0	-1.2
Tom Brady	2	-2	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Julian Edelman	10	12	141	34%	8.9
Rob Gronkowski	6	7	87	20%	1.2
Rex Burkhead	2	2	15	6%	1.1
Cordarrelle Patterson	2	2	14	6%	0.6
James White	1	4	5	11%	-3.3
Sony Michel	0	2	0	6%	-1.4
Chris Hogan	0	6	0	17%	-8.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jonathan Jones	6	2	1.0	0	0
Jason McCourty	4	1	0.0	0	2
Stephon Gilmore	5	0	0.0	1	3
Deatrich Wise	3	2	0.0	0	0
Patrick Chung	2	2	0.0	0	1
Kyle Van Noy	4	0	1.0	0	0
Trey Flowers	2	1	0.0	0	0
Devin McCourty	1	1	0.0	0	0
Lawrence Guy	2	0	0.0	0	0
Dont'a Hightower	2	0	2.0	0	1

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	19/38	229	0	1	4	-11.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Todd Gurley	10	35	3.5	-2.0
C.J. Anderson	7	22	3.1	-1.4
Robert Woods	1	5	5.0	0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Brandin Cooks	8	13	120	36%	-0.5
Robert Woods	5	10	70	28%	-0.4
Josh Reynolds	3	7	28	19%	-0.5
C.J. Anderson	2	3	12	8%	-0.4
Gerald Everett	0	1	0	3%	-0.8
Todd Gurley	1	2	-1	6%	-2.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Cory Littleton	6	4	1	2
Mark Barron	2	5	0	1
Marcus Peters	5	2	0	1
Lamarcus Joyner	4	2	0	0
John Johnson	4	2	0	0
Michael Brockers	3	2	0	0
Aaron Donald	1	4	0	0
Samson Ebukam	4	0	0	0
Aqib Talib	4	0	0	0
Dante Fowler	3	0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -2
Closing total: 55.5
NE moneyline: -123
LA moneyline: +111

Patriots closed -2 and covered, winning by 10.

Total closed 55.5; the game landed 16 — under by 39.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: John Parry
Rest: NE 14 days · LA 14 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Sean McVay