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Patriots 13 – Rams 3 (2018 Super Bowl) | Box Score, Drive Chart & Win Probability | Dynatyze
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Super Bowl · Sun, Feb 3, 2019 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Final
PatriotsNew England13
BY 10final margin
RamsLos Angeles3
New England Patriots 13 at Los Angeles Rams 3. Final.
Patriots -2 ✓U 55.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Super Bowl
New England Patriots 13, Rams 3 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 4:24, 2nd and 10, on Stephon Gilmore — 12.8 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:24 · 2nd and 10
Stephon Gilmore
Patriots
(4:24) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right intended for 12-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 24-S.Gilmore at NE 4. 24-S.Gilmore to NE 4 for no gain (12-B.Cooks).
Dome
Patriots closed -2 and covered, winning by 10.
New England Patriots 13–3. Biggest swing: Q4 4:24, Patriots +12.8% win probability on one snap.
12.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Cory LittletonRamsQ1 12:14(12:14) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 15-C.Hogan INTERCEPTED by 58-C.Littleton (23-N.Robey) at LA 27. 58-C.Littleton to LA 27 for no gain (15-C.Hogan).
12.6pts
Rob GronkowskiPatriotsQ4 7:43(7:43) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 87-R.Gronkowski to LA 2 for 29 yards (58-C.Littleton).
11.2pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Rams at 3 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Patriots won this one — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Rams at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — -0.03 expected points per snap, against Rams at -0.25 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.01 expected points per carry, against Rams at -0.18 expected points per carry.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Patriots166 of 177 plays carry both curves
(4:24) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right intended for 12-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 24-S.Gilmore at NE 4. 24-S.Gilmore to NE 4 for no gain (12-B.Cooks).
Swing −12.8 for RamsExpected points −3.64 for RamsThe model had Rams 5 points higher than the market did.play 155
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 4:24NE +13% win prob(4:24) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right intended for 12-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 24-S.Gilmore at NE 4. 24-S.Gilmore to NE 4 for no gain (12-B.Cooks).
1st · 12:14NE +13% win prob(12:14) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 15-C.Hogan INTERCEPTED by 58-C.Littleton (23-N.Robey) at LA 27. 58-C.Littleton to LA 27 for no gain (15-C.Hogan).
4th · 7:43LA +11% win prob(7:43) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 87-R.Gronkowski to LA 2 for 29 yards (58-C.Littleton).
1st · 5:39NE +11% win prob(5:39) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
3rd · 4:25LA +10% win prob(4:25) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 17-R.Woods to NE 29 for 18 yards (31-J.Jones) [98-T.Flowers].
3rd · 2:56NE +9% win prob(2:56) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at NE 35 for -9 yards (54-D.Hightower).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Sony Michel's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 7:03 left in the 4th put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
2nd10:33Stephen Gostkowski·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder R.Allen · snap J.Cardona+33–0
3rd2:15Greg Zuerlein·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+33–3
4th7:03Sony Michel·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+710–3
4th1:16Stephen Gostkowski·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder R.Allen · snap J.Cardona+313–3
4 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Patriotscategory by categoryRams
Patriots8–0Rams
409Total yards260
6.2Yards per play4.4
45%Success rate36%
25%Third-down rate23%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
8Explosive plays3
18First downs13
1Sacks taken4
1Turnovers1
The read
Patriots ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.03Patriots: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.25Rams: −0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.07Patriots: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.28Rams: −0.28 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.01Patriots: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.18Rams: −0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 66 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Rams’s 59 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 1, Rams 0.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.25.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2018 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 23 pts
leaned — got home · +14.0 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+1.60× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Rams11.1%
inside their normal wobble · −6.0 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 29.3%, 14.0 points above their season mean of 15.3% and 1.6 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
53 dressed · 9 never used
69Shaq MasonG · Every snap100%72 snaps
77Trent BrownT · Every snap100%72 snaps
61Marcus CannonT · Every snap100%72 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%72 snaps
60David AndrewsC · Every snap100%72 snaps
12Tom BradyQB · Every snap100%72 snaps
87Rob GronkowskiTE · Every snap100%72 snaps
11Julian EdelmanWR · Full-time96%69 snaps
15Chris HoganWR · Full-time88%63 snaps
46James DevelinFB · Rotational42%30 snaps
28James WhiteRB · Rotational38%27 snaps
26Sony MichelRB · Rotational38%27 snaps
13Phillip DorsettWR · Rotational36%26 snaps
83Dwayne AllenTE · Rotational29%21 snaps
34Rex BurkheadRB · Rotational26%19 snaps
84Cordarrelle PattersonWR · Situational6%4 snaps
18Matthew SlaterWR · Situational1%1 snap
68LaAdrian WaddleT · Situational1%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
James FerentzCObi MelifonwuDBDuke DawsonDBKeionta DavisDEUfomba KamaluDEDerek RiversDEBrandon KingFSBrian HoyerQBStephen AndersonTE
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Goff pass−16% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(4:24) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right intended for 12-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 24-S.Gilmore at NE 4. 24-S.Gilmore to NE 4 for no gain (12-B.Cooks).
Q4 4:24 · Rams · 2nd & 10 at NE 27 · gained nothing · -3.64 EP · −15.6% win probability
164 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 72 yards from the NE 4 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
39%
Yards
667
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.2576%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24-0.2483%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR22-0.0427%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.0954%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.2446%
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.8050%
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Patriots 39 to the Rams 34
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 27 to the Rams 29
No good14 plays, from the Patriots 12 to the Rams 28
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 36 to the Patriots 42
Punt8 plays, from the Patriots 19 to the Rams 40
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter42 plays
Punt4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Patriots3Rams0
Field goal7 plays, from the Patriots 37 to the Rams 24
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 28 to the Patriots 46
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 17 to the Patriots 25
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 45 to the Patriots 47
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Patriots 27 to the Rams 32
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 32 to the Rams 40
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 46
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 8 to the Patriots 49
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 2 to the Rams 6
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 29 to the Patriots 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFive
Patriots3Rams3
Field goal11 plays, from the Rams 23 to the Patriots 26
The period ended7 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Rams 45
4th quarter52 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt14 plays, from the Rams 7 to the Rams 43
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldSix linemen, two backs and two tight endsDefense on the fieldFive linemen, three linebackers and three backsIn the boxEleven defenders
Patriots9Rams3
Patriots10Rams3
Touchdown6 plays, from the Patriots 31 to the Rams 2
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Patriots 27
Patriots13Rams3
Field goal12 plays, from the Patriots 4 to the Rams 24
No good8 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Patriots 30
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
