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2019 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 8, 2019 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
FalconsAtlanta12
BY 16final margin
VikingsMinnesota28
Atlanta Falcons 12 at Minnesota Vikings 28. Final.
Vikings -3.5 ✓U 47 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 1
Minnesota Vikings 28, Falcons 12 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 12:59, 4th and 2 — 11.7 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:59 · 4th and 2
Unnamed on the sheet
Vikings
(12:59) 5-M.Bosher punt is BLOCKED by 50-E.Wilson, Center-47-J.Harris, RECOVERED by MIN-50-E.Wilson at ATL 21. 50-E.Wilson to ATL 21 for no gain (41-S.Neasman).
Dome
Vikings closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 16.
Minnesota Vikings 28–12. Biggest swing: Q1 12:59, Vikings +11.7% win probability on one snap.
11.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
M.RyanFalconsQ1 13:41(13:41) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan scrambles left end to ATL 33 for 12 yards (55-A.Barr).
5.9pts
A.HarrisVikingsQ1 10:02(10:02) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle intended for 11-J.Jones INTERCEPTED by 41-A.Harris at ATL 41. 41-A.Harris to ATL 41 for no gain (11-J.Jones).
6.2pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.77 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at -0.13 expected points per dropback.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.03 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.59 expected points per carry.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Vikings won this one — no giveaways, against Falcons at 3 giveaways.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Vikings won this one — +0.20 expected points per snap, against Falcons at -0.23 expected points per snap.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Falcons156 of 169 plays carry both curves
(12:59) 5-M.Bosher punt is BLOCKED by 50-E.Wilson, Center-47-J.Harris, RECOVERED by MIN-50-E.Wilson at ATL 21. 50-E.Wilson to ATL 21 for no gain (41-S.Neasman).
Swing +11.7 for VikingsExpected points +4.03 for VikingsThe model had Falcons 5 points higher than the market did.play 6
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:59ATL +12% win prob(12:59) 5-M.Bosher punt is BLOCKED by 50-E.Wilson, Center-47-J.Harris, RECOVERED by MIN-50-E.Wilson at ATL 21. 50-E.Wilson to ATL 21 for no gain (41-S.Neasman).
1st · 10:02ATL +6% win prob(10:02) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle intended for 11-J.Jones INTERCEPTED by 41-A.Harris at ATL 41. 41-A.Harris to ATL 41 for no gain (11-J.Jones).
1st · 13:41MIN +6% win prob(13:41) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan scrambles left end to ATL 33 for 12 yards (55-A.Barr).
1st · 11:57MIN +5% win prob(11:57) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-G.Jarrett].
1st · 15:00ATL +5% win prob(15:00) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 17 for -8 yards (55-A.Barr).
1st · 12:53ATL +5% win prob(12:53) 33-D.Cook right end pushed ob at ATL 8 for 13 yards (37-R.Allen). PENALTY on MIN-82-K.Rudolph, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 21 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
A.Thielen's 23-yard touchdown catch with 11:57 left in the 1st put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:57A.Thielen·23-yd TD catch23-yard touchdown catchfrom K.Cousinsfrom K.CousinsLead never changed again+70–7
Vikings ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.77 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.23Falcons: −0.23 expected points added per play
+0.20Vikings: +0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.13Falcons: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.77Vikings: +0.77 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.59Falcons: −0.59 expected points added per play
+0.03Vikings: +0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 69 snaps at a 78% dropback rate against Vikings’s 47 at 23%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 3, Vikings 4.
NoteFalcons outgained Vikings 345-271 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
MIN's pass rate over expected, −27.3 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 10.1 points clear of the next team along.
2.3 times their own weekly swing below their number.
47 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIN's early-down pass rate, 24.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 8.4 points clear of the next team along.
37 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 17 pts
Only 11 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 10.2%.
Vikings13.0%
right on their number · −2.2 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -27.3 pts, 18.6 points below their season mean of -8.7 pts and 2.3 times their own 8.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Mike HughesCBJalyn HolmesDTArmon WattsDTDru SamiaGSean MannionQBOli UdohTTyler ConklinTEJosh DoctsonWR
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Bosher punt−11% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:59) 5-M.Bosher punt is BLOCKED by 50-E.Wilson, Center-47-J.Harris, RECOVERED by MIN-50-E.Wilson at ATL 21. 50-E.Wilson to ATL 21 for no gain (41-S.Neasman).
Q1 12:59 · Falcons · 4th & 2 at ATL 33 · gained nothing · -4.03 EP · −11.4% win probability
154 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 82 yards from the ATL 15 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
38%
Yards
614
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53-0.1781%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.0245%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11-0.3436%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR10+0.5120%
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.210%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.3467%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+1.090%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Falcons1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Falcons2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 33
Falcons0Vikings6
Falcons0Vikings7
Touchdown4 plays
Intercepted5 plays, from the Falcons 16 to the Falcons 28
Falcons0Vikings13
Falcons0Vikings14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Falcons 41 to the Falcons 19
Punt14 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Vikings 32
The period ended5 plays, from the Vikings 8 to the Vikings 19
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt5 plays
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Falcons 28 to the Vikings 21
Falcons0Vikings20
Falcons0Vikings21
Touchdown15 plays, from the Vikings 21 to the Falcons 1
Punt12 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Vikings 34
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 10 to the Vikings 12
The period ended4 plays, from the Falcons 45 to the Vikings 42
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 48
Intercepted15 plays, from the Falcons 15 to the Vikings 2
Falcons0Vikings27
Falcons0Vikings28
Touchdown8 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Falcons 7
Punt5 plays
4th quarter45 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 29
Falcons6Vikings28
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 34 to the Vikings 20
Punt10 plays, from the Vikings 29 to the Vikings 49
Falcons12Vikings28
Touchdown18 plays, from the Falcons 29 to the Vikings 2
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
