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Buffalo Bills 17, Jets 16 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:17, 4th and 10, on S.Darnold — 28.3 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:17 · 4th and 10
S.Darnold
Bills
(1:17) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 82-J.Crowder (55-J.Hughes). Penalty on NYJ-68-K.Beachum, Offensive Holding, declined.
Jets closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Buffalo Bills 17–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:17, Bills +28.3% win probability on one snap.
28.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.BrownBillsQ4 3:07(3:07) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 15-J.Brown for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-L.Williams]. Penalty on NYJ-27-D.Roberts, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
28.0pts
Ro.AndersonBillsQ4 0:08(:08) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-Ro.Anderson to NYJ 33 for 8 yards. Lateral to 81-Q.Enunwa to NYJ 35 for 2 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by BUF-93-T.Murphy at NYJ 21. 93-T.Murphy to NYJ 18 for 3 yards (11-Ro.Anderson).
22.7pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Bills at 4 giveaways.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Bills won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Jets at 2 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Bills at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jets at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Bills166 of 181 plays carry both curves
(1:17) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 82-J.Crowder (55-J.Hughes). Penalty on NYJ-68-K.Beachum, Offensive Holding, declined.
Swing −28.3 for JetsExpected points −2.59 for JetsModel and market agree here.play 170
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:17BUF +28% win prob(1:17) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 82-J.Crowder (55-J.Hughes). Penalty on NYJ-68-K.Beachum, Offensive Holding, declined.
4th · 3:07NYJ +28% win prob(3:07) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 15-J.Brown for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-L.Williams]. Penalty on NYJ-27-D.Roberts, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
4th · 0:08BUF +23% win prob(:08) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-Ro.Anderson to NYJ 33 for 8 yards. Lateral to 81-Q.Enunwa to NYJ 35 for 2 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by BUF-93-T.Murphy at NYJ 21. 93-T.Murphy to NYJ 18 for 3 yards (11-Ro.Anderson).
1st · 10:42BUF +18% win prob(10:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 10-C.Beasley INTERCEPTED by 57-C.Mosley at BUF 17. 57-C.Mosley for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:11BUF +15% win prob(12:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at NYJ 33 for -7 yards (48-J.Jenkins). FUMBLES (48-J.Jenkins) [48-J.Jenkins], RECOVERED by NYJ-99-S.McLendon at NYJ 38. 99-S.McLendon to NYJ 38 for no gain (76-J.Feliciano).
4th · 0:19BUF +15% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Brown's 38-yard touchdown catch with 3:07 left in the 4th put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st10:42C.Mosley·17-yd defence TD17-yard touchdownthe defence scored itthe defence scored it · kick no good, hit left upright+60–6
3rd12:01B.Poole·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back · with J.Jenkins+20–8
4th3:07J.Brown·38-yd TD catch38-yard touchdown catchfrom J.Allenfrom J.AllenLead never changed again+717–16
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryJets
Bills7–1Jets
371Total yards225
6.0Yards per play3.4
50%Success rate43%
50%Third-down rate41%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
8Explosive plays2
19First downs16
1Sacks taken4
4Turnovers1
The read
Bills ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.13Bills: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.10Jets: −0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.16Bills: −0.16 expected points added per play
−0.08Jets: −0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.04Bills: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.15Jets: −0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 62 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Jets’s 67 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Bills 2, Jets 1.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +2.4 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Jets20.5%
inside their normal wobble · +5.8 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.93× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBUF's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 9.8 pts, 11.3 points above their season mean of -1.5 pts and 1.5 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Darnold pass−28% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:08) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-Ro.Anderson to NYJ 33 for 8 yards. Lateral to 81-Q.Enunwa to NYJ 35 for 2 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by BUF-93-T.Murphy at NYJ 21. 93-T.Murphy to NYJ 18 for 3 yards (11-Ro.Anderson).
Q4 0:08 · Jets · 2nd & 5 at NYJ 25 · lost 4 · -0.04 EP · −27.6% win probability
164 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 85 yards from the BUF 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
42%
Yards
595
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR57-0.0675%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR27-0.3781%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22-0.1059%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.9143%
Jets2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Jets2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Jets 26
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 38 to the Jets 44
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Bills0Jets6
Touchdown1 play
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Jets 33
Drive ended3 plays, from the Jets 42 to the Jets 36
Punt9 plays, from the Jets 3 to the Jets 32
The period ended3 plays, from the Bills 33 to the Bills 38
2nd quarter47 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Bills 39 to the Bills 40
Punt12 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Bills 36
Fumble lost11 plays, from the Bills 5 to the Jets 36
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 37 to the Jets 43
Intercepted5 plays, from the Bills 18 to the Bills 48
No good10 plays, from the Bills 48 to the Bills 27
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Jets 25 to midfield
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Bills0Jets8
Bills0Jets14
Bills0Jets16
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jets 40 to the Bills 5
Bills3Jets16
Field goal10 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Jets 23
The period ended8 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 39
4th quarter50 plays
Punt1 play
Bills9Jets16
Bills10Jets16
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bills 15 to the Jets 3
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 44
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Bills16Jets16
Bills17Jets16
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Jets 38
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 40
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 40 to the Jets 35
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Jets 25
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
