2019 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 8, 2019 · MetLife Stadium
Buffalo BillsWinner
17
New York Jets
16
Buffalo Bills 17–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:17, BUF +28% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(1:17) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 82-J.Crowder (55-J.Hughes). Penalty on NYJ-68-K.Beachum, Offensive Holding, declined.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 1:17BUF +28% win prob(1:17) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 82-J.Crowder (55-J.Hughes). Penalty on NYJ-68-K.Beachum, Offensive Holding, declined.
- Q4 · 3:07NYJ +28% win prob(3:07) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 15-J.Brown for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-L.Williams]. Penalty on NYJ-27-D.Roberts, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
- Q4 · 0:08BUF +23% win prob(:08) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-Ro.Anderson to NYJ 33 for 8 yards. Lateral to 81-Q.Enunwa to NYJ 35 for 2 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by BUF-93-T.Murphy at NYJ 21. 93-T.Murphy to NYJ 18 for 3 yards (11-Ro.Anderson).
- Q1 · 10:42BUF +18% win prob(10:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 10-C.Beasley INTERCEPTED by 57-C.Mosley at BUF 17. 57-C.Mosley for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Bills | Jets |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 62 | 67 |
| Total yards | 371 (edge) | 225 |
| Yards per play | 6.0 (edge) | 3.4 |
| Expected points added / play | -0.13 | -0.10 (edge) |
| Success rate | 50% (edge) | 43% |
| Dropback rate | 71% | 69% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.16 | -0.08 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.04 (edge) | -0.15 |
| Third downs | 5/10 (edge) | 7/17 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 8 (edge) | 2 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 19 (edge) | 16 |
| Sacks taken | 1 (edge) | 4 |
| Turnovers | 4 | 1 (edge) |
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | BUF 25 | 8 | 32 | 2:56 | Fumble | |
| 2 | NYJ | NYJ 38 | 4 | 6 | 1:22 | Punt | |
| 3 | BUF | BUF 12 | 1 | 0 | 0:08 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 4 | BUF | BUF 25 | 10 | 40 | 4:22 | Punt | |
| 5 | NYJ | NYJ 5 | 8 | 33 | 5:23 | Punt | |
| 6 | BUF | BUF 33 | 5 | 2 | 1:44 | Punt | |
| 7 | NYJ | NYJ 20 | 12 | 38 | 5:14 | Punt | |
| 8 | BUF | BUF 5 | 9 | 64 | 5:00 | Fumble | |
| 9 | NYJ | NYJ 37 | 4 | 6 | 1:18 | Punt | |
| 10 | BUF | BUF 18 | 5 | 30 | 1:33 | Interception | |
| 11 | NYJ | BUF 48 | 5 | 21 | 0:34 | Turnover on downs | |
| 12 | BUF | BUF 35 | 1 | 0 | 0:26 | End of half | |
| 13 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 9 | 15 | 2:59 | Punt | |
| 14 | BUF | BUF 2 | 1 | -2 | 0:09 | Turnover on downs | |
| 15 | NYJ | NYJ 40 | 11 | 57 | 4:51 | Touchdown | |
| 16 | BUF | BUF 25 | 10 | 30 | 3:13 | Turnover on downs | |
| 17 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 8 | 19 | 3:54 | Punt | |
| 18 | BUF | BUF 15 | 9 | 85 | 4:33 | Touchdown | |
| 19 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 8 | 19 | 4:26 | Punt | |
| 20 | BUF | BUF 20 | 9 | 85 | 2:55 | Touchdown | |
| 21 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 9 | 10 | 1:48 | Turnover on downs | |
| 22 | BUF | NYJ 40 | 4 | 5 | 1:00 | Punt | |
| 23 | NYJ | NYJ 20 | 2 | 1 | 0:12 | Fumble |
0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 85 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- NYJ -2.5
- Closing total
- 41
- BUF moneyline
- +135
- NYJ moneyline
- -149
Jets closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41; the game landed 33 — under by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- MetLife Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · fieldturf
- Kickoff weather
- 77°F, wind 6 mph
- Referee
- Clay Martin
- Rest
- BUF 7 days · NYJ 7 days
- Coaches
- Sean McDermott vs Adam Gase
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.