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Cincinnati Bengals 20 at Seattle Seahawks 21. Final.
Seahawks -9.5 no coverU 44 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 1
Seattle Seahawks 21, Bengals 20 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q3 13:30, 2nd and 9, on A.Dalton — 19.9 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 13:30 · 2nd and 9
A.Dalton
Seahawks
(13:30) 14-A.Dalton sacked at SEA 19 for -7 yards (Team). FUMBLES (Team), RECOVERED by SEA-72-A.Woods at SEA 19. 72-A.Woods to SEA 24 for 5 yards (14-A.Dalton).
Seahawks closed -9.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Seattle Seahawks 21–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 13:30, Seahawks +19.9% win probability on one snap.
19.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.RossBengalsQ2 0:16(:16) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 11-J.Ross III for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17.4pts
C.CarsonBengalsQ3 15:00(15:00) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 32-C.Carson to SEA 35 for 10 yards (52-P.Brown). FUMBLES (52-P.Brown), RECOVERED by CIN-27-D.Kirkpatrick at SEA 39. 27-D.Kirkpatrick ran ob at SEA 28 for 11 yards.
18.7pts
What separated them
Red zone
Seahawks won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Bengals at 0 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Seahawks won this one — -0.26 expected points per carry, against Bengals at -0.61 expected points per carry.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — 40% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Seahawks at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — 1 giveaway, against Bengals at 2 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Bengals163 of 174 plays carry both curves
(13:30) 14-A.Dalton sacked at SEA 19 for -7 yards (Team). FUMBLES (Team), RECOVERED by SEA-72-A.Woods at SEA 19. 72-A.Woods to SEA 24 for 5 yards (14-A.Dalton).
Swing +19.9 for SeahawksExpected points +5.77 for SeahawksThe model had Bengals 15 points higher than the market did.play 96
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 13:30CIN +20% win prob(13:30) 14-A.Dalton sacked at SEA 19 for -7 yards (Team). FUMBLES (Team), RECOVERED by SEA-72-A.Woods at SEA 19. 72-A.Woods to SEA 24 for 5 yards (14-A.Dalton).
3rd · 15:00CIN +19% win prob(15:00) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 32-C.Carson to SEA 35 for 10 yards (52-P.Brown). FUMBLES (52-P.Brown), RECOVERED by CIN-27-D.Kirkpatrick at SEA 39. 27-D.Kirkpatrick ran ob at SEA 28 for 11 yards.
2nd · 0:16SEA +17% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 11-J.Ross III for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 15:00SEA +17% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:14CIN +14% win prob(:14) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton sacked at CIN 23 for -8 yards (98-R.Green). FUMBLES (98-R.Green), RECOVERED by SEA-21-T.Flowers at CIN 44. 21-T.Flowers to CIN 44 for no gain (11-J.Ross III). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
3rd · 2:07CIN +13% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
T.Lockett's 44-yard touchdown catch with 15:00 left in the 4th put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st2:52R.Bullock·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+33–0
4th15:00T.Lockett·44-yd TD catch44-yard touchdown catchfrom R.Wilsonfrom R.WilsonLead never changed again+717–21
4th7:03R.Bullock·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+320–21
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categorySeahawks
Bengals6–3Seahawks
429Total yards234
6.1Yards per play5.0
40%Success rate32%
40%Third-down rate33%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays5
19First downs11
5Sacks taken4
2Turnovers1
The read
Bengals ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Seahawks, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.61 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.00Bengals: +0.00 expected points added per play
−0.17Seahawks: −0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.15Bengals: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.09Seahawks: −0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.61Bengals: −0.61 expected points added per play
−0.26Seahawks: −0.26 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 70 snaps at a 80% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 47 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 5, Seahawks 3.
NoteBengals outgained Seahawks 429-234 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CIN's sack or hit rate, 37.5%, was the highest of the 31 team-games charted in week 1 — 4.2 points clear of the next team along.
2.3 times their own weekly swing above their number.
24 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.5 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
CIN's pass rate over expected, +16.0 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 3.3 points clear of the next team along.
70 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 21 pts
off script — got home · +22.1 vs their 15.4%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (+2.32× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Seahawks10.7%
right on their number · +0.6 vs their 10.1%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+0.13× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 37.5%, 22.1 points above their season mean of 15.4% and 2.3 times their own 9.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cincinnati Bengals
53 dressed · 9 never used
68Bobby HartOT · Every snap100%75 snaps
66Trey HopkinsG · Every snap100%75 snaps
67John MillerG · Every snap100%75 snaps
71Andre SmithT · Every snap100%75 snaps
14Andy DaltonQB · Every snap100%75 snaps
60Mike JordanOG · Every snap100%75 snaps
15Damion WillisWR · Full-time89%67 snaps
11John RossWR · Full-time81%61 snaps
83Tyler BoydWR · Heavy rotation79%59 snaps
87C.J. UzomahTE · Heavy rotation71%53 snaps
25Giovani BernardHB · Heavy rotation63%47 snaps
85Tyler EifertTE · Rotational49%37 snaps
28Joe MixonHB · Rotational37%28 snaps
12Alex EricksonWR · Situational15%11 snaps
16Pharoh CooperWR · Situational11%8 snaps
89Drew SampleTE · Situational4%3 snaps
34Samaje PerineRB · Situational1%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Jordan WillisDEAndrew BrownDTJohn JerryGCordy GlennOTRyan FinleyQBJake DolegalaQBTrayveon WilliamsRBA.J. GreenWRAuden TateWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Dalton pass+22% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:16) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 11-J.Ross III for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 0:16 · Bengals · 2nd & 10 at CIN 45 · gained 55 · +6.57 EP · +22.3% win probability
161 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 77 yards from the SEA 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
35%
Yards
661
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52+0.1181%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.1359%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.0076%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.1640%
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Bengals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Seahawks 48
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 27
Bengals3Seahawks0
Field goal16 plays, from the Bengals 28 to the Seahawks 16
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 28
The period ended3 plays, from the Bengals 43 to the Bengals 35
2nd quarter53 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 11 to the Bengals 16
Bengals3Seahawks6
Bengals3Seahawks7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bengals 48 to the Bengals 1
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Bengals9Seahawks7
Bengals10Seahawks7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Seahawks 33
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 30
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Bengals 39
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Bengals10Seahawks13
Bengals10Seahawks14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 23 to the Bengals 10
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
Bengals16Seahawks14
Bengals17Seahawks14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 45
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Fumble lost2 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Seahawks 28 to the Seahawks 12
Punt4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
No good7 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Seahawks 27
Punt4 plays
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Bengals 8 to the Seahawks 36
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
The period ended5 plays, from the Seahawks 36 to the Bengals 34
4th quarter49 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Bengals17Seahawks20
Bengals17Seahawks21
Touchdown2 plays
Bengals20Seahawks21
Field goal19 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Seahawks 4
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 31
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 29 to the Bengals 44
Punt12 plays, from the Seahawks 6 to the Seahawks 36
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 31
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
