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2019 Week 1 · Mon, Sep 9, 2019 · Ring Central Coliseum
Final
BroncosDenver16
BY 8final margin
RaidersOakland24
Denver Broncos 16 at Oakland Raiders 24. Final.
Broncos -3 upsetU 42.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 1
Oakland Raiders 24, Broncos 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 4:14, 3rd and 5, on H.Renfrow — 9.2 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:14 · 3rd and 5
H.Renfrow
Broncos
(4:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 13-H.Renfrow to DEN 2 for 10 yards (34-W.Parks).
Broncos closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Oakland Raiders 24–16. Biggest swing: Q2 4:14, Broncos +9.2% win probability on one snap.
9.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
T.WilliamsBroncosQ2 8:26(8:26) 75-B.Parker reported in as eligible. 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 16-T.Williams to DEN 29 for 43 yards (26-I.Yiadom).
9.0pts
R.FreemanBroncosQ3 5:13(5:13) (Shotgun) 28-R.Freeman right tackle pushed ob at LV 27 for 26 yards (24-J.Abram; 21-G.Conley). LV-21-G.Conley was injured during the play. He is Out. PENALTY on LV-24-J.Abram, Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact, 14 yards, enforced at LV 27.
8.4pts
Note
Neither club separated from the other on any measure by enough to be worth calling a difference.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 29.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 99 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Broncos149 of 158 plays carry both curves
(4:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 13-H.Renfrow to DEN 2 for 10 yards (34-W.Parks).
Swing −9.2 for RaidersExpected points −2.17 for RaidersThe model had Broncos 54 points higher than the market did.play 57
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 4:14OAK +9% win prob(4:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 13-H.Renfrow to DEN 2 for 10 yards (34-W.Parks).
2nd · 8:26OAK +9% win prob(8:26) 75-B.Parker reported in as eligible. 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 16-T.Williams to DEN 29 for 43 yards (26-I.Yiadom).
3rd · 5:13OAK +8% win prob(5:13) (Shotgun) 28-R.Freeman right tackle pushed ob at LV 27 for 26 yards (24-J.Abram; 21-G.Conley). LV-21-G.Conley was injured during the play. He is Out. PENALTY on LV-24-J.Abram, Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact, 14 yards, enforced at LV 27.
4th · 12:43OAK +6% win prob(12:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 16-T.Williams to DEN 4 for 24 yards (31-J.Simmons).
2nd · 14:04DEN +6% win prob(14:04) 30-P.Lindsay left tackle to LV 27 for 4 yards (24-J.Abram). DEN-70-J.James was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PENALTY on DEN-65-R.Leary, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 31 - No Play.
1st · 0:40OAK +6% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
T.Williams's 8-yard touchdown catch with 8:56 left in the 1st put Oakland Raiders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:56T.Williams·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom D.Carrfrom D.CarrLead never changed again+70–7
4 of 4 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DEN's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 31 team-games charted in week 1 — 3.4 points clear of the next team along.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
4 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 13 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −13.0 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−1.61× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Raiders—
Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 13.0 points below their season mean of 13.0% and 1.6 times their own 8.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr pass+6% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 83-D.Waller pushed ob at DEN 16 for 25 yards (26-I.Yiadom).
Q1 10:38 · Broncos · 1st & 15 at DEN 41 · gained 25 · +1.86 EP · +6.3% win probability
147 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 159 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 98 yards from the LV 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; OAK attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
159 of 159 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
159
EPA per play
+0.14
Success rate
46%
Yards
701
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.2465%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24+0.3754%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR14+0.0771%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.3057%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.0917%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.2917%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR5+0.8520%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Raiders0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Broncos0Raiders6
Broncos0Raiders7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Raiders 28 to the Broncos 8
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 31
Punt9 plays, from the Raiders 14 to the Raiders 48
The period ended5 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 44
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 38 to the Raiders 31
Broncos0Raiders13
Broncos0Raiders14
Touchdown18 plays, from the Raiders 5 to the Broncos 2
No good18 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Raiders 36
3rd quarter30 plays
Broncos3Raiders14
Field goal13 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Raiders 6
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 34
Broncos6Raiders14
Field goal11 plays, from the Broncos 24 to the Raiders 8
1st quarter1 plays
3rd quarter11 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Broncos 49
The period ended4 plays, from the Broncos 5 to the Broncos 14
4th quarter39 plays
Punt1 play
Broncos6Raiders20
Broncos6Raiders21
Touchdown6 plays, from the Raiders 40 to the Broncos 4
Broncos9Raiders21
Field goal7 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Raiders 14
Broncos9Raiders24
Field goal7 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Broncos 11
Broncos15Raiders24
Broncos16Raiders24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Raiders 1
The period ended8 plays, from the Raiders 25 to midfield
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Broncos -3
Closing total
42.5
Broncos moneyline
-149
Raiders moneyline
+135
Broncos closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 40 — under by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Ring Central Coliseum
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 65°F at kickoff; breezy at 12 mph out of the south-west; clear.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Broncos 7 days · Raiders 7 days
Coaches
Vic Fangio vs Jon Gruden
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
(:40) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 14-C.Sutton to LV 38 for 18 yards (35-C.Riley; 42-K.Joseph).
3rd · 0:44DEN +6% win prob(:44) 30-P.Lindsay right tackle to DEN 12 for -2 yards (42-K.Joseph).
2nd · 0:28OAK +6% win prob(:28) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short left to 10-E.Sanders. PENALTY on LV-21-G.Conley, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 49 - No Play.
