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It turned at OT 1:10, 4th and 7 — 66.2 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 1:10 · 4th and 7
Unnamed on the sheet
Cardinals
(1:10) 4-A.Lee punts 41 yards to DET 5, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-16-T.Sherfield.
Dome
Lions closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
A 27–27 tie. Biggest swing: OT 1:10, Cardinals +66.2% win probability on one snap.
66.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Z.GonzalezLionsOT 7:21(7:21) 5-Z.Gonzalez 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.
50.2pts
M.StaffordLionsOT 0:05(:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right.
49.0pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — -0.01 expected points per carry, against Lions at -0.29 expected points per carry.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Lions owned this one and still lost it — +0.25 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at -0.12 expected points per dropback.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Lions owned this one and still lost it — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Lions owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 6 chunk plays.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Lions219 of 234 plays carry both curves
(1:10) 4-A.Lee punts 41 yards to DET 5, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-16-T.Sherfield.
Swing +66.2 for CardinalsExpected points −0.57 for CardinalsModel and market agree here.play 225
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 1:10ARI +66% win prob(1:10) 4-A.Lee punts 41 yards to DET 5, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-16-T.Sherfield.
Overtime · 7:21DET +50% win prob(7:21) 5-Z.Gonzalez 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.
Overtime7:21Z.Gonzalez·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+324–27
Overtime3:52M.Prater·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap D.Muhlbach+327–27
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by categoryCardinals
Lions6–1Cardinals
477Total yards389
6.1Yards per play4.7
45%Success rate37%
33%Third-down rate41%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
8Explosive plays6
22First downs20
3Sacks taken5
1Turnovers1
The read
Lions ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Lions: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.09Cardinals: −0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.25Lions: +0.25 expected points added per play
−0.12Cardinals: −0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.29Lions: −0.29 expected points added per play
−0.01Cardinals: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 78 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 83 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Lions 4, Cardinals 5.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · +0.9 vs their 10.8%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 60 dropbacks
Cardinals22.9%
leaned — got home · +9.2 vs their 13.7%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+1.40× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteARI's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 30.0 points below their season mean of 30.0% and 1.7 times their own 18.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Michael DogbeDTLamont GaillardGJeremy VujnovichGMiles BrownNTMarcus GilbertOTBrett HundleyQBBrett TothTDarrell DanielsTEMichael CrabtreeWR
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
A.Lee punts+66% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:10) 4-A.Lee punts 41 yards to DET 5, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-16-T.Sherfield.
OT 1:10 · Cardinals · 4th & 7 at DET 46 · gained nothing · -0.57 EP · +66.2% win probability
217 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 234 plays across 32 drives, personnel groupings on 234 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 32 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 95 yards from the DET 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
234 of 234 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
234
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
38%
Yards
866
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR56+0.0077%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.1081%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR15-0.2160%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.5445%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11-0.1218%
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR10-0.4120%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.3163%
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.8480%
Cardinals0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Lions0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Lions2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
234 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
234 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 25 to midfield
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 10 to the Cardinals 15
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 27 to the Cardinals 41
Intercepted6 plays, from the Cardinals 1 to the Cardinals 12
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 34 to the Cardinals 43
The period ended8 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Cardinals 39
2nd quarter55 plays
Lions3Cardinals0
Field goal3 plays, from the Cardinals 38 to the Cardinals 37
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 16 to the Cardinals 18
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.3 seconds
Lions9Cardinals0
Lions10Cardinals0
Touchdown3 plays, from the Lions 49 to the Cardinals 47
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 22 to the Cardinals 37
Lions16Cardinals0
Lions17Cardinals0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Lions 5 to the Cardinals 9
Punt8 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 36
Lions17Cardinals3
Field goal5 plays, from the Lions 8 to the Lions 1
Punt10 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 42
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 31 to the Lions 34
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 24 to the Cardinals 27
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Lions 25
Lions17Cardinals6
Field goal8 plays, from the Cardinals 34 to the Lions 24
The period ended10 plays, from the Lions 18 to the Cardinals 19
4th quarter66 plays
Lions23Cardinals6
Lions24Cardinals6
Touchdown4 plays
Lions24Cardinals9
Field goal13 plays, from the Cardinals 26 to the Lions 16
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 29 to the Lions 36
Lions24Cardinals15
Lions24Cardinals16
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Lions 27
Punt14 plays, from the Lions 17 to the Lions 49
Lions24Cardinals22
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Lions24Cardinals24
Touchdown13 plays, from the Cardinals 40 to the Lions 4
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 37
Overtime39 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Lions24Cardinals27
Field goal9 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Lions 8
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Lions27Cardinals27
Field goal9 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Cardinals 15
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFive
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Punt12 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Lions 46
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Lions 5 to the Lions 24
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Lions -2.5
Closing total
45.5
Lions moneyline
-147
Cardinals moneyline
+133
Lions closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 54 — over by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Lions 7 days · Cardinals 7 days
Coaches
Matt Patricia vs Kliff Kingsbury
ARI +18% win prob
(2:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-D.Byrd pushed ob at DET 49 for 10 yards (39-J.Agnew).
1st · 6:51DET +17% win prob(6:51) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at ARI 34 for -10 yards (55-C.Jones). FUMBLES (55-C.Jones) [55-C.Jones], RECOVERED by ARI-55-C.Jones at ARI 34. 55-C.Jones to ARI 34 for no gain (9-M.Stafford).
