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Green Bay Packers 10, Bears 3 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 2:03, 3rd and 10, on A.Amos — 20.6 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:03 · 3rd and 10
A.Amos
Packers
(2:03) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left intended for 12-A.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 31-A.Amos at GB -9. Touchback.
Bears closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Green Bay Packers 10–3. Biggest swing: Q4 2:03, Packers +20.6% win probability on one snap.
20.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetBearsQ2 0:24(:24) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to GB 33, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-84-C.Patterson.
11.5pts
A.RodgersPackersQ3 13:11(13:11) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep middle to 80-J.Graham. PENALTY on CHI-58-R.Smith, Defensive Pass Interference, 38 yards, enforced at GB 27 - No Play.
11.7pts
What separated them
Red zone
Packers won this one — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Bears at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Packers won this one — no giveaways, against Bears at 1 giveaway.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — -0.10 expected points per dropback, against Bears at -0.29 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — -0.19 expected points per snap, against Bears at -0.30 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Packers164 of 174 plays carry both curves
(2:03) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left intended for 12-A.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 31-A.Amos at GB -9. Touchback.
Swing −20.6 for BearsExpected points −3.69 for BearsModel and market agree here.play 161
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:03GB +21% win prob(2:03) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left intended for 12-A.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 31-A.Amos at GB -9. Touchback.
3rd · 13:11CHI +12% win prob(13:11) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep middle to 80-J.Graham. PENALTY on CHI-58-R.Smith, Defensive Pass Interference, 38 yards, enforced at GB 27 - No Play.
2nd · 0:24CHI +11% win prob(:24) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to GB 33, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-84-C.Patterson.
4th · 4:11CHI +11% win prob(4:11) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep middle to 12-A.Robinson to GB 30 for 21 yards (50-B.Martinez).
2nd · 5:37CHI +11% win prob(5:37) (Punt formation) 6-J.Scott punts 63 yards to CHI 11, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-25-W.Redmond.
4th · 9:15CHI +11% win prob(9:15) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 85-R.Tonyan to CHI 40 for 28 yards (23-K.Fuller).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Graham's 8-yard touchdown catch with 13:15 left in the 2nd put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st4:14E.Pineiro·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+30–3
2nd13:15J.Graham·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom A.Rodgersfrom A.RodgersLead never changed again+77–3
4th5:20M.Crosby·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap H.Bradley+310–3
3 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryBears
Packers3–4Bears
215Total yards254
3.9Yards per play3.9
35%Success rate35%
17%Third-down rate20%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
4Explosive plays4
11First downs13
5Sacks taken5
0Turnovers1
The read
Bears ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Packers, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.19Packers: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.30Bears: −0.30 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.10Packers: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.29Bears: −0.29 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.35Packers: −0.35 expected points added per play
−0.31Bears: −0.31 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 55 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Bears’s 65 at 80%. Red-zone trips: Packers 2, Bears 2.
NoteBears outgained Packers 254-215 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.72× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
Bears19.4%
leaned — got home · +6.8 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+1.17× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCHI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 75.0%, 17.9 points above their season mean of 57.1% and 1.5 times their own 11.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
52 dressed · 1 inactive · 7 never used
65Lane TaylorG · Every snap100%61 snaps
69David BakhtiariT · Every snap100%61 snaps
75Bryan BulagaOT · Every snap100%61 snaps
77Billy TurnerOG · Every snap100%61 snaps
63Corey LinsleyC · Every snap100%61 snaps
12Aaron RodgersQB · Every snap100%61 snaps
17Davante AdamsWR · Full-time97%59 snaps
83Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Heavy rotation67%41 snaps
Kevin ToliverDBAbdullah AndersonDTJosh WoodsLBRashaad CowardOTChase DanielQBKerrith WhyteRBTrey BurtonTERiley RidleyWR
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Trubisky pass−21% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:03) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left intended for 12-A.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 31-A.Amos at GB -9. Touchback.
Q4 2:03 · Bears · 3rd & 10 at GB 16 · gained nothing · -3.69 EP · −21.3% win probability
163 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
3 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 74 yards from the GB 26 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
-0.20
Success rate
33%
Yards
467
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28-0.4371%
Bears2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR21-0.4795%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR19-0.1974%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.0558%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR18-0.1672%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.2143%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Bears1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Bears3 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Packers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Bears 43 to the Packers 39
Punt4 plays
Packers0Bears3
Field goal6 plays, from the Packers 36 to the Packers 20
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 40 to the Packers 45
The period ended9 plays, from the Bears 4 to the Bears 28
2nd quarter47 plays
Punt2 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.2 seconds
Packers6Bears3
Packers7Bears3
Touchdown5 plays, from the Packers 26 to the Bears 8
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Packers 39
Punt9 plays, from the Packers 4 to the Packers 35
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 11 to the Bears 27
Punt8 plays, from the Packers 35 to the Bears 46
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 15 to the Bears 18
The period ended4 plays, from the Packers 33 to the Packers 49
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 27
Punt9 plays, from the Packers 34 to the Bears 30
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 10 to the Bears 19
Punt4 plays
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Bears 23 to the Packers 28
The period ended9 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Bears 43
4th quarter50 plays
Punt1 play
Punt10 plays, from the Bears 13 to the Packers 43
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.7 seconds
Packers10Bears3
Field goal12 plays, from the Packers 6 to the Bears 21
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted14 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Packers 16
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Packers 27
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Bears 14 to the Bears 16
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
