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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:55 AM ET · 16 to play
Houston Texans 28 at New Orleans Saints 30. Final.
Saints -6.5 no coverO 52 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 1
New Orleans Saints 30, Texans 28 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:02, 3rd and 1, on W.Lutz — 42.8 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:02 · 3rd and 1
W.Lutz
Saints
(:02) 3-W.Lutz 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
42.8
Dome
Saints closed -6.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
New Orleans Saints 30–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, Saints +42.8% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
T.SmithSaintsQ4 15:00(15:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 10-T.Smith for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 14, YAC 0
17.0pts
K.StillsTexansQ4 0:43(:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 12-K.Stills for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN [24-V.Bell]. Pass 32, YAC 5
26.7pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Saints won this one — 59% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 46% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Texans owned this one and still lost it — 11 chunk plays, against Saints at 8 chunk plays.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Texans owned this one and still lost it — +0.33 expected points per carry, against Saints at +0.12 expected points per carry.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Saints won this one — 7 of 11 on third down, against Texans at 7 of 13 on third down.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Texans165 of 178 plays carry both curves
(:02) 3-W.Lutz 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
Swing +42.8 for SaintsExpected points +1.33 for SaintsThe model had Texans 9 points higher than the market did.play 177
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:02NO +43% win prob(:02) 3-W.Lutz 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
4th · 0:43NO +27% win prob(:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 12-K.Stills for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN [24-V.Bell]. Pass 32, YAC 5
4th · 15:00NO +17% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 10-T.Smith for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 14, YAC 0
4th · 4:25HOU +16% win prob(4:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at HOU 45 for -11 yards (91-T.Hendrickson).
4th · 0:50NO +13% win prob(:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins pushed ob at NO 37 for 38 yards (23-M.Lattimore) [92-M.Davenport]. Pass 34, YAC 4
4th · 0:06NO +12% win prob(:06) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 19-T.Ginn to HOU 40 for 9 yards (22-A.Colvin). Pass 9, YAC 0
4th · 7:11
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
W.Lutz's 58-yard field goal with 0:02 left in the 4th put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:02W.Lutz·58-yd field goal58-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.WoodLead never changed again+328–30
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categorySaints
Texans1–6Saints
414Total yards510
7.0Yards per play8.1
46%Success rate59%
54%Third-down rate64%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
11Explosive plays8
20First downs25
6Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
Saints ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.28Texans: +0.28 expected points added per play
+0.25Saints: +0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.26Texans: +0.26 expected points added per play
+0.32Saints: +0.32 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.33Texans: +0.33 expected points added per play
+0.12Saints: +0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 59 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Saints’s 63 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Texans 4, Saints 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.1 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Saints26.3%
leaned — got home · +10.1 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+1.69× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNO's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 26.3%, 10.1 points above their season mean of 16.2% and 1.7 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
W.Lutz+52% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:02) 3-W.Lutz 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
Q4 0:02 · Saints · 3rd & 1 at HOU 40 · gained nothing · +1.33 EP · +52.0% win probability
163 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 94 yards from the HOU 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
+0.15
Success rate
45%
Yards
924
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.2461%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.5879%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.3450%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.4860%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.0150%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-1.0050%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 38
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 14 to the Texans 45
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 10 to the Texans 23
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo quarterbacks, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.2 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Texans 49 to the Texans 11
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
The period ended6 plays, from the Texans 6 to the Saints 30
2nd quarter51 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Texans6Saints0
Texans7Saints0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Saints 29 to the Saints 21
Texans7Saints3
Field goal12 plays, from the Saints 21 to the Texans 14
Texans13Saints3
Texans14Saints3
Touchdown24 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Saints 2
No good9 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Texans 38
3rd quarter41 plays
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defenders
Texans14Saints9
Texans14Saints10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Saints 17 to the Texans 30
Texans20Saints10
Texans21Saints10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Saints 16
Texans21Saints16
Texans21Saints17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Texans 9
Intercepted4 plays, from the Texans 16 to the Texans 18
The period ended5 plays, from the Texans 49 to the Texans 12
4th quarter52 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.1 seconds
Texans21Saints23
Texans21Saints24
Touchdown2 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Saints 44
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 28 to the Saints 46
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Punt9 plays, from the Texans 4 to the Saints 43
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Texans21Saints27
Field goal12 plays, from the Saints 7 to the Texans 29
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Texans27Saints27
Texans28Saints27
Touchdown5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Saints 37
Texans28Saints30
Field goal8 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Texans 40
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
