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2019 Week 1 · Mon, Sep 9, 2019 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Houston Texans

28

New Orleans SaintsWinner

30

NO -6.5 no coverO 52 ✓Dome

New Orleans Saints 30–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, NO +43% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NOHOU
Q4 · 0:02HOU NO NO ball · 3rd & 1NO 57%

(:02) 3-W.Lutz 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:02NO +43% win prob(:02) 3-W.Lutz 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
  2. Q4 · 0:43NO +27% win prob(:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 12-K.Stills for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN [24-V.Bell]. Pass 32, YAC 5
  3. Q4 · 15:00NO +17% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 10-T.Smith for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 14, YAC 0
  4. Q4 · 4:25HOU +16% win prob(4:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at HOU 45 for -11 yards (91-T.Hendrickson).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricTexansSaints
Offensive plays5963
Total yards414510 (edge)
Yards per play7.08.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.28 (edge)0.25
Success rate46%59% (edge)
Dropback rate64%67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.260.32 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.33 (edge)0.12
Third downs7/137/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)11 (edge)8
First downs gained on snaps2025 (edge)
Sacks taken61 (edge)
Turnovers11

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1HOUHOU 25772:21Punt
2NONO 146413:31Punt
3HOUHOU 105132:11Punt
4NOHOU 498384:02Interception
5HOUHOU 681043:42Touchdown
6NONO 2112654:51Turnover on downs
7HOUHOU 2518807:35Touchdown
8NONO 258371:47Turnover on downs
9NONO 177832:09Touchdown
10HOUHOU 2511704:31Touchdown
11NONO 2513755:41Touchdown
12HOUHOU 16420:51Interception
13NOHOU 495471:53Touchdown
14HOUHOU 258184:08Punt
15NONO 285253:03Punt
16HOUHOU 48454:15Punt
17NONO 78642:39Turnover on downs
18HOUHOU 254750:13Touchdown
19NONO 257350:37Turnover on downs

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 104 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
NO -6.5
Closing total
52
HOU moneyline
+273
NO moneyline
-310

Saints closed -6.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 52; the game landed 58 — over by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface
dome · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
HOU 7 days · NO 7 days
Coaches
Bill O'Brien vs Sean Payton