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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:02 AM ET · 16 to play
Indianapolis Colts 24 at Los Angeles Chargers 30. Final.
Chargers -6 pushO 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 1
Los Angeles Chargers 30, Colts 24 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at OT 5:05, 1st and 7, on A.Ekeler — 32.2 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 5:05 · 1st and 7
A.Ekeler
Chargers
(5:05) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
32.2
Chargers closed -6 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Los Angeles Chargers 30–24. Biggest swing: OT 5:05, Chargers +32.2% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
M.MackColtsQ4 0:38(Run formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 25-M.Mack rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
14.0pts
J.JacksonColtsQ4 0:16(:16) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 22-J.Jackson to LAC 39 for 4 yards (31-Q.Wilson; 35-P.Desir) [52-B.Banogu].
13.3pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Chargers won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Colts at 5 chunk plays.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 57% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chargers at 49% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Colts owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Chargers at 1 giveaway.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Chargers won this one — 7 of 11 on third down, against Colts at 7 of 13 on third down.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Colts155 of 165 plays carry both curves
(5:05) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +32.2 for ChargersExpected points +1.76 for ChargersModel and market agree here.play 164
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 5:05LAC +32% win prob(5:05) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:38LAC +14% win prob(Run formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 25-M.Mack rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
4th · 0:16IND +13% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 22-J.Jackson to LAC 39 for 4 yards (31-Q.Wilson; 35-P.Desir) [52-B.Banogu].
4th · 0:08IND +12% win prob(:08) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers scrambles right end ran ob at LAC 45 for 6 yards (99-J.Houston).
Overtime · 8:02LAC +10% win prob(8:02) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler right end to IND 18 for 19 yards (97-A.Muhammad).
2nd · 6:06LAC +10% win prob(6:06) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 13-K.Allen for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 10:06
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
A.Ekeler's 7-yard rushing touchdown with 5:05 left in overtime put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Overtime5:05A.Ekeler·7-yd TD run7-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+624–30
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categoryChargers
Colts3–4Chargers
378Total yards435
6.0Yards per play7.4
57%Success rate49%
54%Third-down rate64%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays10
23First downs23
2Sacks taken4
0Turnovers1
The read
Chargers ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Colts, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.27Colts: +0.27 expected points added per play
+0.22Chargers: +0.22 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.23Colts: +0.23 expected points added per play
+0.20Chargers: +0.20 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.30Colts: +0.30 expected points added per play
+0.25Chargers: +0.25 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 63 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Chargers’s 59 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Colts 4, Chargers 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 17 pts
leaned — got home · +7.7 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (+1.72× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Chargers16.7%
inside their normal wobble · +4.4 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteIND's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 20.5%, 7.7 points above their season mean of 12.8% and 1.7 times their own 4.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
A.Ekeler up+32% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(5:05) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
OT 5:05 · Chargers · 1st & goal at IND 7 · gained 7 · +1.76 EP · +32.2% win probability
153 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 80 yards from the IND 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
+0.20
Success rate
48%
Yards
813
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.3249%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.1775%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.1891%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.4436%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8+0.740%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 39 to the Chargers 43
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 14 to the Colts 28
Colts0Chargers6
Colts0Chargers7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chargers 32 to the Colts 1
The period ended7 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Chargers 38
2nd quarter44 plays
Colts6Chargers7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chargers 37 to the Chargers 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
Colts6Chargers13
Colts6Chargers14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Colts 20
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 26
Colts6Chargers17
Field goal11 plays, from the Colts 46 to the Colts 22
No good7 plays, from the Colts 21 to the Chargers 28
3rd quarter37 plays
Colts9Chargers17
Field goal9 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Chargers 26
Colts9Chargers23
Colts9Chargers24
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 45
Colts15Chargers24
Colts16Chargers24
Touchdown4 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 37
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 49
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 10 to the Colts 33
The period ended4 plays, from the Chargers 27 to the Chargers 18
4th quarter42 plays
No good4 plays, from the Chargers 14 to the Chargers 11
Intercepted9 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Colts 6
Colts22Chargers24
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Colts24Chargers24
Touchdown18 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Chargers 19
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxOne defendersRushing the passerOne
The period ended11 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 39
Overtime10 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Colts24Chargers30
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Colts 7
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
